With 11 people in the game I would guess 3 mafia as 4 mafia would seem to over-powered. 8 v 3 is more balanced then 7 v 4.
I'm assuming the town has 1 cop. I'm also assuming that since we are in the pool and no one has "drown in the pool" as Mole has stated, that we will also have a life guard in place of doctor. I'm presuming that mafia kill us off by drowning us and that a life guard could perform CPR and bring us back to life. I would say that his role would be the same as a strong doc. Not sure what other roles Mole would give the town. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a vigilante pop up in this game. We haven't seen one for a while.
This is an interesting analysis - especially on such limited information. Do we even know that mole is giving all the roles (and deaths) a pool-ish tinge as you suggest here?? I guess I was somewhat spoiled by the last game when we had the full list of roles!
With that said, I am very glad to see more discussion happening here. The more we get, the more tools we have to profile potential mafia.
Voting for you is not personal EM, but CD does make a valid point about changes in behavior potentially being telling. Last game KevinH changes his 'norm', and noone took it seriously that it was an indicator he was scum - which he was. I'm not going to say you have no freedom to change your mind and try something new, but it does make you stick out a little more. There's only one way to TRULY know if you're scum... but thats a rather final solution. If we DO end up going no-lynch, I would encourage whatever cop there is (if any) to take a look at you during this first night.
-Preston