544 replies to this topic

[Tactical Evil Dan]

Sure:

• CanucksDynasty and I vote for Electric Mango.
• Nerau voted for you.
• You voted for Nerau.
• Kasabian voted for Ccabal86.
• Kaziocore voted for AKCPLUTO.
• KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, and Electric Mango voted NO-LYNCH.

I think that about sums it up.

The "Hey, that's my job!" VOTE COUNT
Electric Mango (2): Tactical Evil Dan, CanucksDynasty
Preston (1): Nerau
Nerau (1): Preston
Ccabal86 (1): Kasabian
AKCPLUTO (1): Kaziocore

No-Lynch (5): KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango

Not Voting (0)

With 11 alive, 6 is needed to lynch (or not).

Edited by molestargazer, 09 February 2011 - 09:32 AM.

[Preston]

Current Votes

• Electric Mango: CanucksDynasty, Tactical Evil Dan
• Preston: Nerau
• Nerau: Preston
• Ccabal86: Kasabian
• AKCPLUTO: Kaziocore
• NO-LYNCH: KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango

Reformatted to be independent of speaker (i.e. no you or I).

At present No-lynch has the majority. I maintain that this is probably a bad idea, and that there are probably at least 2 mafia among that voting list. Either way I am NOT in favor of ending the day just yet with this vote tally. I'd like to see some more discussion, and preferably some mafia suspect lists from people - see who is thinking what.

I'm still up in the air as to my own personal 'mafia suspect list' based purely on this first day's voting/no-lynch argument. If I had to name names they would be:
Ccabal86: Bandwagoned onto KevinH's no-lynch pretty quickly.
Electric Mango: I'll go with CD's suspicion on this one, if this is different from his norm. Deviations can be relevant.
There's another two I am wavering on but don't feel solid enough about them to say anything yet.

-Preston

[CanucksDynasty]

Current Votes

• Electric Mango: CanucksDynasty, Tactical Evil Dan
• Preston: Nerau
• Nerau: Preston
• Ccabal86: Kasabian
• AKCPLUTO: Kaziocore
• NO-LYNCH: KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango

Reformatted to be independent of speaker (i.e. no you or I).

At present No-lynch has the majority. I maintain that this is probably a bad idea, and that there are probably at least 2 mafia among that voting list. Either way I am NOT in favor of ending the day just yet with this vote tally. I'd like to see some more discussion, and preferably some mafia suspect lists from people - see who is thinking what.

I'm still up in the air as to my own personal 'mafia suspect list' based purely on this first day's voting/no-lynch argument. If I had to name names they would be:
Ccabal86: Bandwagoned onto KevinH's no-lynch pretty quickly.
Electric Mango: I'll go with CD's suspicion on this one, if this is different from his norm. Deviations can be relevant.
There's another two I am wavering on but don't feel solid enough about them to say anything yet.

-Preston

I can see that at least you're putting some effort into the discussion rather than some other players who seldomly post (ie. Lurkers).

[ccabal86]

Current Votes

• Electric Mango: CanucksDynasty, Tactical Evil Dan
• Preston: Nerau
• Nerau: Preston
• Ccabal86: Kasabian
• AKCPLUTO: Kaziocore
• NO-LYNCH: KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango

Reformatted to be independent of speaker (i.e. no you or I).

At present No-lynch has the majority. I maintain that this is probably a bad idea, and that there are probably at least 2 mafia among that voting list. Either way I am NOT in favor of ending the day just yet with this vote tally. I'd like to see some more discussion, and preferably some mafia suspect lists from people - see who is thinking what.

I'm somewhat suspicious of people who are strongly against no-lynching on the first day. No matter how you try to justify it, it's little more than a random vote. Not saying everyone should unanimously vote no-lynch, and it's good that people are making accusations and actively discussing the issues, but I don't see how randomly killing off someone on day 1 helps the town.

However, I agree that some of the mafia may be voting no-lynch

[CanucksDynasty]

I'm somewhat suspicious of people who are strongly against no-lynching on the first day. No matter how you try to justify it, it's little more than a random vote. Not saying everyone should unanimously vote no-lynch, and it's good that people are making accusations and actively discussing the issues, but I don't see how randomly killing off someone on day 1 helps the town.

However, I agree that some of the mafia may be voting no-lynch

I find it curious that you have this stance since in games past you've never been a no-lynch supporter (I think...haven't checked past games to be 100% sure).
Voting patterns is what we get during a lynch.

This lynch / no-lynch debate has been talked to death (in other games). KevinH is and will always be a supporter of it. I will always be against it cuz I truly believe the best info we can get is through voting patterns.

[KevinH]

If people are going to discuss, then I'm all for discussion. If I can make 2 posts in a row with almost a full day elapsed, then I think there is not much discussion going on.

Regarding scum voting for no-lynch ... to me it's a non-indicator. It's in the town's best interest not to lynch but it's in the scum's best interest to look like they are townies.

Even if our votes were truly random, there would be scum voting for no-lynch. I reminds me of the amazing coincidence that 70% of lottery players let the computer pick the numbers and that 70% of the winners had the computer pick their numbers.

[KevinH]

It reminds me ...

[ccabal86]

I find it curious that you have this stance since in games past you've never been a no-lynch supporter (I think...haven't checked past games to be 100% sure).
Voting patterns is what we get during a lynch.

Actually, in the first ever game I played I voted no-lynch on day 1, then the second game was a HP based game, the third game was PYP that never really took off, though I said I was considering no lynch, but since we had initial info, I dropped the idea.

So I don't think my voting patterns would show me as a very strong anti no-lynch advocate.

[Electric Mango]

Ah, the classic lynch/no lynch debate, who ever would have thought we would be having this conversation on day 1? I've played a lot of games and this always happens, which is why I decided to switch sides and try it Kevins way this time. I get tired of the same routines and wanted to spice it up a little. This is also the reason you (CD) should think more protown of me and not less. You and I have played enough games together to know that I would draw suspicion for changing my stance. I know WIFOM and all but if I WERE scum I know the safe bet is to get in line with all the other sheep and blend in.

[CanucksDynasty]

Ah, the classic lynch/no lynch debate, who ever would have thought we would be having this conversation on day 1? I've played a lot of games and this always happens, which is why I decided to switch sides and try it Kevins way this time. I get tired of the same routines and wanted to spice it up a little. This is also the reason you (CD) should think more protown of me and not less. You and I have played enough games together to know that I would draw suspicion for changing my stance. I know WIFOM and all but if I WERE scum I know the safe bet is to get in line with all the other sheep and blend in.

Indeed. I would consider you and KevinH as veterans. And it is easier to blend in...among the current no-lynch voters.
I'll keep my vote where it is for now.

[Preston]

I'm somewhat suspicious of people who are strongly against no-lynching on the first day. No matter how you try to justify it, it's little more than a random vote. Not saying everyone should unanimously vote no-lynch, and it's good that people are making accusations and actively discussing the issues, but I don't see how randomly killing off someone on day 1 helps the town.

However, I agree that some of the mafia may be voting no-lynch

What's suspicious to me is not just the no-lynch vote itself, but the relative speed with which people piled onto it once KevinH forwarded the idea. Since bandwagoning is a mafia staple to keep from sticking out, I'd believe at least 2 mafia are on the current no-lynch list - doubly so since it could be spun as a 'pro-town' tactic without alienating anyone.

To promote additional discussion, I will again state that I'd like to see some current mafia-suspect lists of at least one or two names per person - especially from those who have been largely silent. Mafia benefits from being able to keep from pointing fingers as long as possible; let's make them do it.

-Preston

[ccabal86]

Ok, after many games I must ask a n00b question: What's WIFOM?

Kinda sounds like some new advancement in wireless technology, lol

[Chaoshawk]

If we were given the list of roles, I'd be less content with voting no lynch at this stage.

@ccabal86 I googled it and found it on Mafiascum.net/wiki

"Wine In Front Of Me (commonly abbreviated as WIFOM) is the circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that his behavior would be subject to scrutiny."

So, its what Preston is saying earlier. Two potential mafia are voting no lynch in order to avoid one of them dying, or at least he thinks so. Mafia could also be voting a random person in order to not be seen with disdain for voting no lynch.

[ccabal86]

Right, thanks

[Preston]

If we were given the list of roles, I'd be less content with voting no lynch at this stage.

@ccabal86 I googled it and found it on Mafiascum.net/wiki

"Wine In Front Of Me (commonly abbreviated as WIFOM) is the circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that his behavior would be subject to scrutiny."

So, its what Preston is saying earlier. Two potential mafia are voting no lynch in order to avoid one of them dying, or at least he thinks so. Mafia could also be voting a random person in order to not be seen with disdain for voting no lynch.

Interesting thought exercise! The trick of course is that while mafia WILL be acting knowing that they are being observed... the intent is to try and make them slip up somewhere.

EM is right in that when people CHANGE their votes/stances it is also visible. I'm not so much just betting on no-lynch final voters, I'm betting that while no-lynch was getting started, some mafia bandwagoned because it appeared safe and now must defend their choice. Even if enough votes change now that we DONT no-lynch, we have a list of who went that way to begin with - which is something.

Still. I'm prepared to add some of the extra spice EM asks for - lets see how the dice fall.

Unvote.
Vote: Electric Mango
Reason: No-lynch voting/early support of no-lynch bandwagoning, deviation from norms and making excuses, lack of further information... and hey, he asked for it to be interesting

-Preston

[Preston]

Addendum:

Another response to the "Wine in front of me" exercise - it only holds when all the rules are clearly understood by the one doing the considering.
To quote Princess Bride: "So all the time it was your cup that was poisoned...." "They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder."

-Preston

[Electric Mango]

Preston, I like your tenacity, I wish everyone would play the same way as the more people post the more information the town has to disect. I've always been suspicious of the lurkers myself and have always been an advocate of active players. I like your style and I feel good about your "townieness".

As for my guess on how many mafia are voting no lynch I would say only one. Mafia on Day 1 try to distance themselves from each other and are likely to spread their votes around. I doubt two out if the three mafia are voting the same way.

[Electric Mango]

Edit: prestins last posts were not there when I started my last post. It takes a while to post on an itouch.

[Electric Mango]

Also, I still like your style Preston, but your suspicion is misplaced.

[Nerau]

Lets do some anaylsis

If no lynch goes through, What do we gain?

Answer: All we have to go off for D2 is voting patterns and it also depends on who the mafia decide on

If we lynch, What do we gain?

Answer: We either gain a loss of mafia member ( unlikely ) or we lose a townie (maybe power role )


So in conclusion there is loss no matter the move made

Also just b/c you change your strategy on how you play doesn't mean you sway either way. It means you are willing to adjust to best help the circumstances

At the moment i don't feel it best to jump on the EM bandwagon. I see the truths of what EM is doing even if i find it suspicous