761 replies to this topic

[molestargazer]

As the sun rises and hits the sleeping occupants of the supermarket, they all slowly wake up. Eager now after yesterday's success, they make their way back to the checkouts to see if a return to their previous location would bring the same luck as it had the day before.
But it was no surprise to any of them when it seemed that someone was missing.

They found CanucksDynasty face-down underneath one of the checkouts where he had been sleeping. In the corner were a few shopping bags which seem to have been a few days old. He clearly wasn't a member of the mafia - just an unfortunate shopper who was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

CanucksDynasty, CUSTOMER, has been killed.
It is now DAY FOUR. Deadline for today is Saturday 11th June.

[CanucksDynasty]

Bah!
Go town!!!!

[TerrorChrist]

Man, I wish I had made more of a hassle when I suspected EM on day 1.

I guess those who defended him at the time, while attacking CD would be pretty good suspects now, right?

[ccabal86]

CD is town? Well, I admit, I was wrong, good thing thing I didn't get my may after all.

I was protecting TC for the night, unfortunately scum didn't go for him. In my roleclaim, I deliberately left out the part where it states that I cannot lock myself in the bathroom, but I guess the uncertainty was enough to prevent them from killing me....or maybe it's the fact that they want to paint me even more guilty by the killing, after all I led the charge last day...

Anyway, we may have caught a scum, but don't forget, it's still LYLO, don't make your decisions lightly.

[Preston]

Ouch that they took out CD; it definitely proves he wasnt doing any sort of a double game, and his analysis will be missed. He gave us two scum though : EM and AKCPLUTO - and that narrows down those who remain to RoT and ccabal, so honestly CD may have won the game for us right there. No wonder scum wanted him out of the way; he would have been about as proven town as TC at this point.

In a touch of irony, my ability activated last night - meaning that scum must have used their role cop ability on night 2, so I was informed at the start of night 3. I'll paraphrase the PM:

Before turning out the lights you see some cans on the shelves are out of place. You find a notebook hidden behind them with notes and a copy of a shopping list. You can't tell who was being investigated, but the notebook concludes they were an ordinary customer.

It's hard to paraphrase some of the words again, but the meaning is pretty clear; my ability informed me that 1) mafia had a role cop, 2) they used it to investigate someone that proved to be a normal customer. Given that we've just lynched EM (role cop) and seen CD killed (customer/vanilla townie), I am inclined to believe they investigated CD on night 2 and confirmed to themselves that he WAS a vanilla townie.

Even with CD gone, he's already given us key information we'll need to win this game; he was certain about EM, and now that he's been proven town his being certain about AKCPLUTO is looking very good. After that, we'll have to decide between RoT and Ccabal for the third.

Man, I wish I had made more of a hassle when I suspected EM on day 1.

I guess those who defended him at the time, while attacking CD would be pretty good suspects now, right?

EM played the game well; it was hard to single him out for suspicion until day 3, when CD's analysis basically proved EM scum. CD is also a good player, so paranoia that he could be scum sacrificing a teammate is entirely normal. I wasn't sure about EM myself until halfway through day 3 when CD pointed out that scum weren't jumping on him(EM) despite the fact it would win the game for them.

The short answer to your question is that we can look back and see how our current suspects (RoT and ccabal) defended EM and use that to help build evidence to differentiate between them to try and figure out who is scum and who is town, but that information alone will not single out the third scum.

There are now five people left, two of whom are scum:
AKCPLUTO - Claimed cowardly lifeguard, confirmed scum through bad roleclaim that didn't match TC's
Preston - OCD Restocker, ability confirmed that scum investigated a 'customer'
ccabal86 - Claimed Bathroom Attendant, scum suspect
reign of terror - Claimed "Vanilla townie", scum suspect
TerrorChrist - first-aid ex-lifeguard, proven town through ability use

I'll do a more detailed analysis of the three scum possibles (AKCPLUTO, ccabal, RoT) later, but here is a first examination/thought dump regarding them:

AKCPLUTO: confirmed scum
1. Role name conflict with TC; TC is 'ex-lifeguard' and AKCPLUTO is just 'lifeguard'. AKCPLUTO claimed his role's name after TC used his revival role, but before TC stated his role name. Therefore AKCPLUTO could not have known that role names could be different from last game to this game before he roleclaimed.
2. CD named AKCPLUTO as confirmed scum yesterday during his analysis, and CD has since been confirmed town through death; this adds credibility to all of his statements.
3. AKCPLUTO voted against CD on day 2 and day 3 - did not just suspect CD, but voted for CD. His first vote on day 2 had no reason behind it and we needed to press for an explanation. Further, scum didn't finish CD immediately to end the game when AKCPLUTO voted for him on day 3 (and AKCPLUTO rushed that vote in the beginning), suggesting AKCPLUTO was one of their three votes; they needed four to finish him.
4. AKCPLUTO took over for Narsis, who on day 1 had that list accusing d3mon and KevinH of being scum; the former our security guard and the latter a power role (one-use martyr). While AKCPLUTO is not the same player as narsis, they have the same role; attempts to shift suspicion that narsis made on day 1 are worth considering for AKCPLUTO at this stage as additional evidence.

Multiple votes against CD, failed roleclaim, vote rushing on LYLO day 3, and CD's analysis confirming him scum now being further confirmed by CD himself proving town : there is enough evidence at this point that makes it difficult for me to see any scenario where AKCPLUTO is NOT scum.

ccabal86: scum suspect
1. Voted for d3mon day 1, and one of those who kept their vote on him despite KevinH calling for unvote to no-lynch
2. Claimed a role that semi-overlaps our roleblocker.
3. Was not killed last night while claiming an unused power role that could block a scum nightkill
4. Voted against CD yesterday, same as AKCPLUTO.

Ccabal is looking pretty scummy at this point. His ability is unlikely and (with scum killing someone OTHER than TC or ccabal last night) impossible to prove or disprove. If there had been NO kill last night I might have thought differently about him... but even then it could have been a scum ploy. I am leaning towards ccabal as the third scum, but I'm not 100% on him yet.

RoT: scum suspect
1. Bandwagoned/supported CaoCao lynch on day 2. It looked like he was rushing the vote, but the bandwagon was established by then.
2. Randomly bandwagoned on TC's mistaken d3mon vote on day 3 with no explanation or j/k at the time, claimed it was a joke. This could be nothing, or could be a mistaken/aborted attempt to start a vote blitz - on an already-dead target
3. Claimed "vanilla townie" on day 3, the same role CD claimed on day 1 - and the same role scum KNEW about from their rolecop on night 2. And when every other role is unique, why would we have TWO vanilla townies?
4. Replaced an inactive player, so we have less information about him to examine him.

The main thing that makes me hesitant about judging RoT not scum is that we have relatively little information about him. He replaced an inactive player which denied us d3mon voting information on him, and after throwing a few accusations/questions around on day 2 largely bandwagoned on caocao and rushed that vote. RoT DID end up voting for EM yesterday, and CD gave him townie points for doing so... but this could have been a distancing vote.

The new information about RoT today is that my ability confirmed scum knew a vanilla townie (aka customer) existed on night 2, before RoT roleclaimed. This leads to three scenarios:
1) Scum investigated CD (proven vanilla townie). RoT is town and claims his role on day 3.
2) Scum investigated CD (proven vanilla townie). RoT is scum and uses that information as the basis for his roleclaim on day 3
3) Scum investigated RoT, and that's the vanilla townie/customer my role returned. RoT is town and claims his role on day 3.

I am inclined to believe that scum investigated CD instead of RoT because CD claimed his role earlier (and could have been fakeclaiming) and because CD was just a more prominent/important target; I would not be surprised if they were evaluating CD as a possible night 3 victim, and ended up killing him despite his being vanilla town. So that (to me at least) reduces the odds of scenario 3. So if CD was investigated, the question becomes if RoT's day 3 roleclaim was just timing (he waited until LYLO, which is not unreasonable), or if it was scum attempting to roleclaim in a way that CD would not be able to challenge (i.e. CD is vanilla town, so CD couldn't say this is a game with no vanilla townies).

Okay, that ended up being a longer first-examination than I'd intended Love these massive walls of text.

In summary:
* Unless some major development occurs, AKCPLUTO will probably have my vote today. He accused CD, CD accused him back, and CD has proven town. I can't really see a way he could NOT be scum at this point.
* Between ccabal and RoT, I am currently looking at ccabal as the probable third scum - however I am uncertain now due to the revelation that scum KNEW a vanilla townie existed on night 2, prior to day 3 when RoT roleclaimed.
* Remember that today is STILL LYLO! We cannot afford to mess this one up. This is the reason I am leaning towards lynching AKCPLUTO today, and then using the information from today to help us decide between the two of them tomorrow.

Today promises to be interesting as we try to figure out who the third scum is.

In the meantime, enjoy your memorial day weekend (for those of us in the US)! Go outside - Ive spent too long writing this already

-Preston

[Preston]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that someone posted while I was composing that massive wall of text, but blah - now I have to do an addendum! I thought I was done writing for a while

CD is town? Well, I admit, I was wrong, good thing thing I didn't get my may after all.

I was protecting TC for the night, unfortunately scum didn't go for him. In my roleclaim, I deliberately left out the part where it states that I cannot lock myself in the bathroom, but I guess the uncertainty was enough to prevent them from killing me....or maybe it's the fact that they want to paint me even more guilty by the killing, after all I led the charge last day...

Anyway, we may have caught a scum, but don't forget, it's still LYLO, don't make your decisions lightly.

Im guessing you mean "didnt get your Way" And good thing you didnt or this would be over.

Interesting you left out that bit from your roleclaim... at least it means you cannot be a bulletproof (immune to nightkill) in addition to a roleblocker/doctor.

I'm honestly not surprised at your saying you protected TC last night; if you survived it's the only thing you really COULD say after CD basically challenged you to do so. Resulting scenarios:

1) Ccabal is town, actually DID protect TC and scum targetted CD instead to deny us evidence that would deny ccabal's claim.
2) Ccabal is scum, and scum targetted CD instead to make it LOOK like they're denying us evidence that would deny ccabal's claim.

It's the WIFOM problem again; scum SAW that ccabal was (in theory) going to protect TC, so they could just target someone else if ccabal is town. So overall this results in no information; the role is still unproven/unprovable. The only new aspect is that he left out a limit to his role before... which while it further defines the roleclaim doesnt really seem to change much about the role itself.

You are correct that this is LYLO; I said as much in my massive post. But you are definitely not off the hook yet; at present you are somewhat more scummy than RoT in my mind.

Now that we've heard from ccabal (faster than I expected...), I want to hear from RoT. I'll check in later after I've gotten to enjoy the weekend.

-Preston

[reign of terror]

What questions would you like me to answer for you, Preston? Also another strange night-kill unless CD was the one EM investigated. I was expecting TC.

[TerrorChrist]

As was I

[Preston]

What questions would you like me to answer for you, Preston? Also another strange night-kill unless CD was the one EM investigated. I was expecting TC.

As was I

As for the scum knocking off CD instead of TC... to be honest I'm not terribly surprised by the move. I touched on this at the start of my huge post, but I'll restate it/elaborate on it: the reason we keep expecting them to kill TC is that he has been proven town through his ability use, and hence his viewpoints are considered clean and no chance of being scum. At this stage CD (if he were still alive) would have been very nearly as proven town due to figuring out at least two if not all three scum yesterday and giving us EM - you could still spin conspiracy/double game theories, but in general would be CD about the same level as TC in terms of towniness and no votes or accusations against him would really be taken seriously.

There's also the fact that when CD challenged ccabal yesterday to prove himself by protecting TC... I remember thinking at that point that neither TC nor ccabal could be the night's target since to kill either would answer the question about whether ccabal was scum or town. That challenge set up the question of "does ccabal die, does TC die" as being how we'd know if ccabal was scum; killing CD instead gave us no information. Now granted this is only my 2nd FULL mafia game, but the logic that stands to me is that it's to the scum's advantage to NOT kill townies being examined as scum - especially this late in the game, they WANT alternate targets to draw townie suspicion. I could be thinking too much into this, but it appears to make sense.

To be honest, I was thinking the night's kill would be either CD or myself; CD for the reasons above, or me due to the fact my role was going to give me SOME information. My theory is that since they knew their investigation only gave them a vanilla townie (that they were going to kill anyway), my information wasnt a threat to them - either that or they just decided CD was simply more dangerous.

Anyway, back to the question of what I want from everyone - may as well make a formalized list of this to get conversation going:

1. I'd like a reaction to what I laid down in my post, particularly the parts where I list the evidence against each of the three scum candidates
2. Who do you think the last two scum are, and reasons behind that - especially if you have other posts/quotes to bring up that I missed
3. What other thoughts do you have as the day begins, etc - don't restrict yourself to my questions.

@RoT in particular - How do you respond to the fact we now know scum were aware of SOME vanilla townie existing during night 2, prior to your roleclaim?
My main question for ccabal would have been what he claims he did with his ability last night, but he posted while I was posting and preempted me... so that's already been answered.

At this point I think we are trying to find the third scum between ccabal and RoT, unless you somehow think AKCPLUTO is innocent and BOTH of them are scum - but frankly I would have a VERY hard time believing that due to all the evidence currently piled up against AKCPLUTO. Between those two I am slightly leaning towards ccabal, but I want to see how RoT responds to the question about his vanilla roleclaim.

We need to have at least SOME discussion today prior to the vote - though with fewer people to consider our discussion may not take quite as long as previous days. The discussion and our voting records from today will be useful to try and find the third scum tomorrow - what people say, "townie points" from who helps vote off the scum today, etc. Following my theory above about scum kills, I believe either TC or myself will die tonight - so this is our last chance to talk prior to the final day's vote when we will be down to THREE people.

-Preston

[AKCPLUTO]

I apologize to my fellow townies insofar as I went on a giant ego trip there and accidentally committed friendly fire. I plead innocent insofar as my role-claim is nevertheless accurate and as ccabal bandwagoned my CD vote. I believe that I am being framed with regard to CD because the scum know that I now look painfully suspicious. They figured that I'd be a sure bet to be lynched in this situation.

If I die, you all lose. If so, fin me, fin town, and gg scum.

[TerrorChrist]

Interesting analysis. However, they all assume one thing: that we believe you to be townie. Personally, I am not too sure about anyone being townie.

[Preston]

Interesting analysis. However, they all assume one thing: that we believe you to be townie. Personally, I am not too sure about anyone being townie.

It's a fair point that you cant know my (or anyone's) towniness for certain; the only one that's 100% proven town is yourself TC. It's also true that anyone's analysis will include their claiming/assuming their own towniness - there's not really a way to avoid that, especially in a LYLO situation where allowing yourself to be lynched would lose us the game.

I have given everyone the details of my role and paraphrased my role PM during my roleclaim yesterday, and then gave the information that my role gave me last night, helped finish EM yesterday, and am trying to help us make sure we dont lynch a townie today through the analysis I've already provided. There's only so much proof I can offer, so at some point you will have to make a judgement call. Yesterday CD thought me town, and then when he died he was proven town which should give his opinion some more weight. You are of course welcome to ask me questions or do your own analysis of my posts, and I'll respond to it.

I apologize to my fellow townies insofar as I went on a giant ego trip there and accidentally committed friendly fire. I plead innocent insofar as my role-claim is nevertheless accurate and as ccabal bandwagoned my CD vote. I believe that I am being framed with regard to CD because the scum know that I now look painfully suspicious. They figured that I'd be a sure bet to be lynched in this situation.

If I die, you all lose. If so, fin me, fin town, and gg scum.

If you are being framed, then your "friendly fire" has largely contributed to it. How do we tell the difference between accidental friendly fire by a townie and a scum being caught accusing a townie? There's not much anyone can do when theyre the primary suspect other than plead their own innocence - whether you are scum or town you would say the same thing. As I said above to TC, at some point we just have to make a judgement call based on the information we have available to us.

At the end of the day we need to lynch a scum. There are very few times in this game that you get solid information - you cannot hold out for absolute proof of guilt or innocence. Absent some external information like mod posts or catching someone in a lie, the rest of the time you have to rank people in terms of who you find MOST suspicious, and end up going with that. So like I asked everyone, out of those left who do you think the scum are and why? Rank us in terms of most likely scum to least likely scum, and see how the lists end up.

-Preston

[ccabal86]

Ok, here's my list:

From most likely to be be scum to least likely.

1, AKC - Bad roleclaim. As we can see, Even "Vanilla Townie" was given a flavor specific name, a.k.a "Costumer". Same with "Ex-lifeguard". In this light, AKC's role of "Cowardly Lifeguard", taken DIRECTLY from last game doesn't sound too credible.
2/3, RoT/Preston - Not sure what to think about them, I'm really unsure who the 3rd scum could be. Preston however is giving good analysis that can help save us at this point, while RoT seems to be lurking more and more. So if I'd have to decide then I'd give nr. 2 to RoT and nr. 3 to Preston
4, TC - Basically our only confirmed townie.

[reign of terror]

@RoT in particular - How do you respond to the fact we now know scum were aware of SOME vanilla townie existing during night 2, prior to your roleclaim?

I am a little bit surprised, but I knew with all the townies roles we have seen in this game that the mafia had at least one power role and they would use it at some point. I can see how this may make me seem suspicious, but I seriously am a vanilla townie. I roleclaimed on day 3 since it was LYLO to see how people would respond to my roleclaim so I could clear up some suspicions that I had.

As to the mafia, I think at this point it is pretty clear who is the most scummy. Just look at the votes on day 3.

VOTE COUNT
Electric Mango (4): TerrorChrist, CanucksDynasty, reign of terror, Preston
CanucksDynasty (2): AKCPLUTO, ccabal86

Not Voting (1): Electric Mango

Both AKC and ccabal are voting for the vanilla townie.

CD is town? Well, I admit, I was wrong, good thing thing I didn't get my may after all.

I was protecting TC for the night, unfortunately scum didn't go for him. In my roleclaim, I deliberately left out the part where it states that I cannot lock myself in the bathroom, but I guess the uncertainty was enough to prevent them from killing me....or maybe it's the fact that they want to paint me even more guilty by the killing, after all I led the charge last day...

Anyway, we may have caught a scum, but don't forget, it's still LYLO, don't make your decisions lightly.

I apologize to my fellow townies insofar as I went on a giant ego trip there and accidentally committed friendly fire. I plead innocent insofar as my role-claim is nevertheless accurate and as ccabal bandwagoned my CD vote. I believe that I am being framed with regard to CD because the scum know that I now look painfully suspicious. They figured that I'd be a sure bet to be lynched in this situation.

If I die, you all lose. If so, fin me, fin town, and gg scum.

Both of them also quickly tried to prove their townieness early on day 4 after their target CD turned out to be a vanilla townie.

Strong FOS-AKC because of bad roleclaim, and attacking CD.

I also have my doubts about you Preston, but we will see how day 4 goes first.

[Preston]

I know this week is keeping me busy, but it seems like basically everyone has gone quiet. Well, I'll respond to the two posts since my last; ccabal and RoT have answered, which leaves AKCPLUTO needing to give his list of scum thoughts.

Both lists so far share a few traits:
1. Obvious scum first (AKC), which isnt surprising since that will keep things even in terms of 'townie points'.
2. Secondary suspicion on each other
2a. ccabal cites RoT "seems to be lurking more and more"
2b. RoT cites ccabal's vote yesterday with AKC, and how both ccabal and AKC started the day with apologies/claims of towniness.
3. Tertiary suspicion on me since I cannot be ruled out, but also to not ignore anyone.

ccabal makes a point of listing TC as the 4th "least suspicious" - thorough I guess.

RoT FoS'd AKC and added an extra note on his suspecting me third. It's fair that you have doubts; I can't do anything more to PROVE my towniness other than promoting this conversation so that come tomorrow we'll have good information to work with in trying to find the last scum. However at least I'm trying to make more happen than just voting for AKC and then letting the day end quickly with nothing to show for it.

I'd like to hear AKCPLUTO's list of guessed scum, as well as TC's thoughts on what people have said. I know there's only five of us left, but lets try to keep SOME talking going!

-Preston

[TerrorChrist]

My thoughts are still settling down.

[AKCPLUTO]

I'm thinking cc because he keeps following and duplicating my actions in an attempt to falsely implicate me.

[TerrorChrist]

That's a pretty weak motivation...could you be more elaborate?

[AKCPLUTO]

I am accusing cc in no uncertain terms of being a bandwagoner taking advantage of an inexperienced player who keeps tripping himself up.

[TerrorChrist]

I had hoped for a better defense...


[Vote: AKCPluto