IRONclad
Edited by molestargazer, 04 April 2011 - 10:18 AM.
Valid point. That game really did come down to the wire. We can't know how it would've gone if we'd lynched EM on the first day; CD would've still seen Kasabian on night 1 and we'd have gotten a scum lynch on day 2... but after that we cant know how the numbers would've fallen from then on.Just so people don't forget ... We didn't lynch on day 1 last game and the town won.
Is it possible to act suspicious already, when we haven't started yet?
*Mopping up in Isle 2, mopping up in Isle 2*
Tempered IRON
EM, you would probably be right 99/100 times. He could have said "*clean up on isle 3*" but he didnt... he seems to be indicating that he is actually mopping.
It could be for flavour, but I wont be surprised if he is the janitor.
Valid point. That game really did come down to the wire. We can't know how it would've gone if we'd lynched EM on the first day; CD would've still seen Kasabian on night 1 and we'd have gotten a scum lynch on day 2... but after that we cant know how the numbers would've fallen from then on.
In the past two games we usually had someone come in with math at this point to list out various lynch scenarios, but I'm lazy to go grab it from the other thread. I'll take a brief stab at it though.
If we lynch today and get scum: Awesome! 'nuff said. Potential double-awesome: we could block a scum power role from being used.
If we lynch today and get town: Ouch. But we'll have info on who voted for him to start considering on day 2 in addition to whatever else turns up, and this information could be used to guide night 1 investigations by whatever cop we have. Potential double-ouch: we could lose a townie with a power role before it's used.
If we no-lynch today: Barring a lucky block, we lose a townie on night 1. On day 2 we have no more information to go on than day 1 unless someone found something on night 1 and decides to roleclaim on day 2. Last round this worked for us as KevinH said, but I kinda think we were lucky.
-Preston
Is it just me or does this post make TC look like the Janitor?
Nuclear Accolade___IRON Spirit___Above Beyond_____Diligence______Seniority___
Karma Campaign__Karma Nuke_____Karma Aid___TPF Complience__CnG Campaign____CnG Nuke___
The Realm of Philonoe | 
| The GIMP Workshop
Wow Narsis...I can't believe you figured it out so quickly.
Nuclear Accolade___IRON Spirit___Above Beyond_____Diligence______Seniority___
Karma Campaign__Karma Nuke_____Karma Aid___TPF Complience__CnG Campaign____CnG Nuke___
The Realm of Philonoe | | The GIMP Workshop
IRON Rose
well that about does it. i'm going with Kevin, ccabal, and d3mon as the 3 mafia.
game over; town wins.
"Baptized in Fire and Blood"
This is true - but absent a roleclaim on day 2 we won't be any better off then. If there's either no cop (unlikely) or there IS a cop but they find nothing (possible), there won't be a day 2 roleclaim to shift the equilibrium. Absent some sort of investigative role or other source of information, we need information to shift the equilibrium - and since it's safe for scum to vote no-lynch, there's no way to identify them by that.you need to remember, we aren't just looking at today. we are looking at the game as a whole. for any single given day, it's more beneficial for the town to no lynch until they find mafia in some way or another. but over the course of the entire game, that'd result in a town loss.
This is true - but absent a roleclaim on day 2 we won't be any better off then. If there's either no cop (unlikely) or there IS a cop but they find nothing (possible), there won't be a day 2 roleclaim to shift the equilibrium. Absent some sort of investigative role or other source of information, we need information to shift the equilibrium - and since it's safe for scum to vote no-lynch, there's no way to identify them by that.
It's a valid option to wait until day 2 and see if a roleclaim happens - but otherwise, we'll be having the same discussion on day 2 with no more information than we have today. Everyone advocating no-lynch should be aware that they are gambling on more information being available on day 2 than day 1, when that may not be the case. That said, last round CD gave us good intel on day 2 - but then CD had a guard role guaranteed to see EVERYTHING that happened at night. We might not have the same thing again.
-Preston
Nuclear Accolade___IRON Spirit___Above Beyond_____Diligence______Seniority___
Karma Campaign__Karma Nuke_____Karma Aid___TPF Complience__CnG Campaign____CnG Nuke___
The Realm of Philonoe | | The GIMP Workshop
Dammit, and I really thought we had this game wrapped up this time
On a serious note, there is some pretty good discussion going on, but I'd really like to hear everyone's opinion on the lynch/no-lynch issue.
Nuclear Accolade___IRON Spirit___Above Beyond_____Diligence______Seniority___
Karma Campaign__Karma Nuke_____Karma Aid___TPF Complience__CnG Campaign____CnG Nuke___
The Realm of Philonoe | | The GIMP Workshop
Are you suggesting that he is a mafia janitor?
Quenched
IRON Rose
I can't resist cracking a joke here - the mafia may want to have some clean fun!
"Baptized in Fire and Blood"
IRONclad
Nobody knows nothin'.
I'll wait until after April Fools Day to cast my serious no-lynch vote.
well that about does it. i'm going with Kevin, ccabal, and d3mon as the 3 mafia.
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