Players 12/12

1. reign of terror

2. Kaziocore

3. Nerau

4. killgor

5. KevinH

6. Martino

7. Rafay

8. Commander Shepard

9. Lyner

10. Imran Ehsan

11. Euclid of Alexandria

12. Xarastier Xx Karl xX

 

Alive 4/12

Nerau

Commander Shepard
Imran Ehsan
Xarastier Xx Karl xX Alternate Tree

 

 

Missing

 

reign of terror

 

 

Dead

Killgor

KevinH

Rafay

Lyner

Euclid of Alexandria

Martino

Kaziocore

 

I love the numbers, I really do.

 

However, with 2 scum factions both wanting dead townies, I think there's a large chance that they'd both choose alternate targets hoping the other faction would make the kill on the known townie.  Also, the Mafia will consider that he might be the Serial Killer and not want to waste a shot hitting the immunity.  If he survived, it would be easy to lynch him with the justification that since he survived, he must be scum.

 

Rafay is not a know townie though. If he is scum that would only leave one scum faction that would want him dead. And if he is a townie than he is probably a PR and scum would not necessarily want to leave the information about his power role solely in the hands of the other scum faction.

 

Anyway, in order to do a calculation it is inevitable to make some assumptions. Your point would justify to say that Rafay's chance to survive is better than what the calculation says. However, I have for the purpose of the calculation assumed that the vig won't target Rafay. In reality he very well might. That would decrease his chances of survival. Therefore these two issues will balance each other out to some extent and the result of the calculation is probably still a decent estimate.

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

I like how you posted fluff to appear active. Any insights?

 

---

I think Rafay is not an SK.

 

I also think Rafay should be lynched if he fails to roleclaim because

 

1) If he is scum, fantastic

2) If he is town and the mafia or sk killed him, they will receive his identity.

They can freely roleclaim Rafay's unknown role.

MOD: Rafay should be prodded

 

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

I like how you posted fluff to appear active. Any insights?

 

---

I think Rafay is not an SK.

 

I also think Rafay should be lynched if he fails to roleclaim because

 

1) If he is scum, fantastic

2) If he is town and the mafia or sk killed him, they will receive his identity.

They can freely roleclaim Rafay's unknown role.

 

Still better than nothing at all, don't you agree?

 

 

I'm waiting for rafay's response, but oh well here we go:

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself, and it's still day one  

And there is the possibility that it was a bad play and now he's stuck. I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.

I think that's all for now, I'll still gunning for the ones that try to stay under the radar

@Rafay

 

With 1 day and 16 hours left on the clock you have 4 votes on you and Kaziocore, although still voting killgor, said he too thinks you should be lynched. Meanwhile there doesn't seem to be a competing wagon. So, Rafay, what's it gonna be? Claim or be lynched?

 

If you wish to claim you should do so now as otherwise it will look like you're trying to cut short the discussion of a possible counterclaim.

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself, and it's still day one

And there is the possibility that it was a bad play and now he's stuck.

 

I wouldn't call it a possibility of bad play. I would call it a certainty of bad play. As discussed before, scum nor town would have a reason to play as he did. Also, his attraction of too much suspicion is more likely a scum slip than a town tell because it is due to a mistake rather than to an intentional play that benefits town.

 

Whatever the case, as a result of his mistake the chance that Rafay is scum has gone up from 25% to 50% while for others it has gone down from 25% to 22,7%. And that's not even taking into account that a scum is more likely to make such a mistake than a town PR. The reason being that a town PR would probably already have given some thought to the circumstances under which he would claim, while a scum would be more likely to decide to false claim in the spur of the moment. The latter is obviously more prone to error.

 

 

I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.

I think that's all for now, I'll still gunning for the ones that try to stay under the radar

 

Rafay is most definitely not my only suspect. He is however by a wide range my most likely suspect.

I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.

I think that's all for now, I'll still gunning for the ones that try to stay under the radar

It is unfortunate that most of the discussion has been focused around Rafay. However, it was important to convince the town that it is not in our best interest to lynch one of our powerroles. Unfortunately, very few people seem to agree.

 

Anyway, I am voting for KevinH because I suspect him more than anyone else. He is usually arguing strongly in favor of not lynching anyone on D1 because we might just accidently lynch the cop. This time we have someone who claims to be a powerrole, and now KevinH is voting to lynch him. That simply does not make sense based on his usual playstyle. So I am wondering what caused that change. However, KevinH has chosen to ignore my questions about that.

However, it was important to convince the town that it is not in our best interest to lynch one of our powerroles. 

Possible town power role, and not a possible town power role that has much to say in defense of many things so far.

From the beginning, no-lynch was not an option.

Someone is going to be lynched, no question about it.

 

If the scum know we won't lynch a player that role claims, then the scum will certainly role claim to avoid being lynched.

 

Anybody else with a bandwagon on them will also do anything to avoid the lynch.  My vote stays with Rafay.

I didn't wanna do it. I tried everything to prevent it, but to save my life I hav 2 roleclaim.

 

I'm the town roleblocker. There!!! You happy.

I don't think you tried everything to prevent it but I do think you created this mess all by yourself. To be honest I still don't believe you much, but at least if you are lying there will now be someone that knows that you are.

 

Unvote: Rafay

Although it might be true, it is also kind of convenient that Rafay claimed RB. False claiming dietician would IMO likely have provoked a counter claim, while false claiming vig would have just get him night killed by the vig. Therefore I would expect a scum in Rafay's position to claim RB as that creates a dilemma for the real RB.

 

Although I would hate to lose the real RB, if Rafay is lying I would still suggest that the real RB counter claims. It would be a sacrifice for sure, but catching a scum is IMO a pretty good result for a PR. If each of our PR catch one we win the game after all. A scum lynch on Day 1 would really get us ahead in the game.

It's a tough call.

If he's scum, of course he'd claim to be the roleblocker.

 

I also have to wonder who would be a better lynch candidate.

Unvote

 

It is a tough call unless you can block an attacker he will be dead tonight 

 

Again as kevinh says if not we will know alot 

Unvote.

 

I can't wait for the second guessing that will occur if he doesn't get killed tonight.

 

 

MOD: Updated vote count please.

 

If I am right theres 3 people with 2 votes apiece. Are we lynching based on who go to the 2 votes first:? In that case who is getting lynched? I lost track.

Vote count 1.08

 

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (2) - Rafay, Killgor

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (2) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore

KevinH (2) - Xx Karl xX, Martino

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 
 

Not voting (6) - reign of terror, Lyner, Commander Shepard, Euclid of Alexandria, KevinH, Nerau,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

KevinH, Killgor, and Kaziocore are tied for current wagon leader at L-5

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

 

This color denotes the player who will be lynched in the event of a tie. 

 

Karl's vote is left over from Xarastiers vote.

 

 

 

Vote count 1.05

 

 

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (1) - Rafay,

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (1) - Imran Ehsan

KevinH (2) - Xarastier, Martino

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (3) - Nerau, KevinH, Euclid of Alexandria

Commander Shepard (1) - Kaziocore

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (2) - Commander Shepard, Killgor

Xarastier (1) - Lyner

 

Not voting (1) - reign of terror

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Rafay is currently the wagon leader at L-4

Deadline is Monday, May 6th, 2013 @ 23:20 PST

 

 

 

 

Our first replacement hasn't responded to me in awhile, so I'll be PMing Electric to replace Xarastier. When I get a replacement lined up and the role pm sent I will extend the deadline. Probably to about mid-day Thursday.

 

I didn't realize I already unvoted Rafay.

But unvote anyway.

Rafay didn't have to role claim, I would have been satisfied if he just responded about the situation.

If he is the role blocker, then I don't think it would make any difference for him in the night.

Sorry guys I had to disappoint, I just ran out of statements to defend. I'll at least hopefully save sum1 tonite. Thank u 4 believing in me. So now who do we save Kev, Nerau or Kaz.....????

I know I'm townie.

 

Between Kaziocore and Killgor, I don't see much differerence, but Kaziocore tries harder.

 

Vote: Killgor

Sorry guys I had to disappoint, I just ran out of statements to defend. I'll at least hopefully save sum1 tonite. Thank u 4 believing in me. So now who do we save Kev, Nerau or Kaz.....????

Nerau has no votes.

I'm pretty sure Kaziocore is a townie.

Between KevinH and killgor, I don't see much difference, but KevinH tries harder.

Vote: KevinH
 

@mod: Since Karl is yet to post anything substantial and is still maintaining Xarastier's random vote, can we get an extensions of a few days?
 

RoT and killgor, opinions?

 

 

feel the pressure a bit

vote: killgor