I know from my perspective that it is untrue, but I like your way of thinking here, KevinH.

 

As to your scenario, if Shep and I were the goons we could not be so sure it would go as you describe. In fact we could be quite sure that it wouldn't.

 

Firstly, Shep and I wouldn't know for sure that you are the vig as you could just as well be the SK, in which case you have killed the vig and there would only be 2 night kills at most. Even if you are the vig though there is a good chance that 2 of the 3 NKs target the same player, or that one of them target the SK. So whatever the case, 3 night kills... not very likely.

 

Secondly, if Rafay flips RB, everyone, including the SK and/or vig, would know for sure that Shepard is scum and they would seriously suspect me as well. Hence it would be quite likely that one of us would be amongst the night kills.

 

Therefore Shep and I would probably be coming into Day 3 with 5 alive and only one of him and me alive. That doesn't even look half as good as your suggestion that it would be 4 alive including both Shep and me. If Shep and I were the goons, I'd say that would be a pretty bad play.

 

The only logical conclusion is therefore that Shepard and me agreeing on some stuff is not an indication that we are goons at all.

Are you saying you want to know who my kill is? Hmm.

I was not saying that. I was just pointing out that at one point you said A and then at another point B. If you are scum, where you said A you were still trying to see if we would believe your claim, whereas where you said B it had already become clear that we mostly do and that even those that have their doubts wouldn't be pushing for your lynch. As the arguments you put forward for B already existed when you said A, that behavior kind of fits with you being scum.

 

On the other hand it could certainly also just be the case that you are the vig and that you are a bit slow in figuring things out.

@Rafay @Imran (@Karl as well, but... meh)

 

I'd like to know your reads on Lyner since if you have him as town there is no point in me pushing his case any further.

 

 

 

 This was Day 2 just after I had made my case against Lyner. See bolded

parts. On the one hand Lyner says that "we know Rafay blocked Nerau"

thus suggesting Rafay is telling the truth. On the other hand he says

Rafay might be scum. Does not compute really. However I'd say that at a

point were most are reading Rafay as town due to lack of CC, i.e. Rafay

is no longer in dnager, out of nowhere Lyner has some suspicion against

him all of a sudden.

 

Ah, the "he's a townie" refers to Nerau.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:

Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings

KevinH: might be a townie

Rafay: not enough information, might be scum

Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time

Lyner: cool townie

Imran Ehsan: might be a townie

Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie

Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?

 

 

 

 

My apologies, I believe there is a mistake here, this list is my true guess dependent from the assumption that rafay is honest(that bolded part), I guess my mind was confused when I was typing back then I posted my list of suspicion assuming rafay is honest in my previous post.

@Rafay @Imran (@Karl as well, but... meh)

 

I'd like to know your reads on Lyner since if you have him as town there is no point in me pushing his case any further.

 

Did Kevin's hypotheses tick some nerves?

 

 

 

But yeah, Rafay, Imran, Karl and Nerau, some comments wouldn't hurt

Well yes Lyner appears sometimes to be sitting on the fence or tipping over for that matter. But I wouldn't consider him a scum right now....Sure he's suspicious and his posts have been neutral but maybe that's how he plays. I don't think he's scum right now.....

 

And also

 

Kevin made some good points about the day talk n Euclid and Comm Shep.

To me Imran looks suspicious for SK. I dunno y but it seems so.....

OK..finally managed to get some time to read through the walls of text <_<

 

I see some accusations being thrown against me (including being the SK ) so I will address those first.

 

Regarding Rafay: Yes, I believed his Role Claim on Day 1. As I had pointed out earlier, Rafay role-claimed when he had only 4 votes on him. I didnt think scum will put himself in such a vulnerable position so early. False claiming with only 4 votes on you exposes you to 1) Real RB who immediately knows you are scum and 2) to other scum faction, who will target him at first opportunity, believing him to be a PR.

 

On Day 1, when we have almost no info I didnt believe it was necessary to lynch a possible PR. There were other better candidates to lynch. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and let the game move into Day 2 where we will have more info.

 

However, I agree with Euclids 3 scenarios and it is extremely unlikely CS would false claim to lynch the real RB. So yes, Rafay seems to indeed be scum. I was wrong with my assessment of him. Also his claiming to RB Nerau threw me off....i didnt think the scum would take the risk of claiming to RB someone who may indeed be the Dietician.

 

KevinH's scenario: while interesting, I dont think its realistic. If Rafay is lynched and found to be the real RB, it immediately exposes both CS and Euclid to be scum. Too much risk for the townies.

 

I will post my thoughts on Lyner in a little bit as I need to run. But before i do:

 

Unvote

 

Vote: Rafay

Impressive......

Let me start by saying I love this game.

I love Mafia in general and this Donner Party game in particular.

 

My mind keeps fluctuating about whom to believe.

 

At the core, it's Rafay vs Commander Shepard.

 

Yesterday I suspected Rafay the most, with Martino as his scum buddy.

He survived the night which is probably a bit of evidence supporting the scum theory but easily explained away.

Then I don't see any evidence of a counter-claim and decide to trust him.

I'm also in a dilemma because I don't see anybody else as being particularly scummy.

 

Then comes the counter-claim by Commander Shepard, which should give me a reason to put Rafay back at the top of my list.

 

However, there's this little nagging feeling that it's all too easy.

 

I need to post an alternative possibility.  Like I said, it's Rafay vs Commander Shepard.

Remember that mafia have daytalk.  Is Commander Shepard talking to Euclid of Alexandria?

 

1) I role-claim as the Vigilante.

2) Commander Shepard implies that I'm lying

3) Euclid of Alexandria implies that I'm lying.

 

Is this testing the waters to see if they can drum up support and lynch me?

 

4) Lyner believes me.

5) Imran Ehsan believes me.

 

OK, not much traction for the lynch on me.

 

6) Commander Shepard counter-claims.

7) Euclid of Alexandria supports the counter-claim.

 

They both made eloquent and convincing posts, and I may believe them in the end, but I think it takes a little more scrutiny.

 

Maybe, just maybe, their plan goes like this:

 

Town lynches Rafay, roleblocker is gone, 7 players left.

3 kills in the night, 4 players left.

Town lynches Commander Shepard, 3 players left.

2 kills in the night, Euclid survives and the mafia wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, they thought we wouldn't discover their dastardly plan and chose to take the calculated risk.

 

Is this any less likely than their accusations that I killed the Vigilante and assumed his identity?

 

I don't know if I believe it myself, but that nagging feeling is there.

 

I love this game!

 

I'm not implying that you're lying.

I'm pointing out the obvious that we have no way of known if you're the Vig or not.

Even you do not know what my role is for certainty.

Eulcid probably supports my post because it is a logical arrange of events.

 

@Rafay @Imran (@Karl as well, but... meh)

 

I'd like to know your reads on Lyner since if you have him as town there is no point in me pushing his case any further.

 

Did Kevin's hypotheses tick some nerves?

 

 

 

But yeah, Rafay, Imran, Karl and Nerau, some comments wouldn't hurt

 

We're still missing your important opinion on who you think is lying between me and Rafay.

To me Imran looks suspicious for SK. I dunno y but it seems so.....

 

 

Anything further to add on Imran or is that all?

Never the less your true scum faction will paint a big picture on other possibilities of scum.

I would still like you to go back and answer my question about the person you say you blocked.

Did Kevin's hypotheses tick some nerves?

Nah. I'm confident town will win this. Does that make you nervous though?

After going through Lyner's most recent posts, I cant really see anything that makes him look either scummy or townie. He has been playing pretty conservatively so far, without taking big stances and just going with the flow.

 

His earlier summary of other players on Day 2 was everyone looks townie to him which seems like a safe play.However, Its pretty interesting that he said Rafay seems scummy before the counter claim by CS. This may be a ploy to distance himself from Rafay though...as he knew his partner may be exposed soon by the real RB. I need to go back and see what his opinion of Rafay was on Day 1. But if he was supporting Rafay's Role Claim on Day 1, this is a pretty strange turnaround.

 

I am not convinced however whether he is the 2nd scum. Nerau seems much more likely to be the 2nd scum to me. I wont be surprised however if Lyner turns out to be the SK. He has been playing pretty conservatively and trying to attract as less attention to himself as possible..something that fits the profile of a SK.

@Imran

 

In post #192 Lyner think's we shouldn't wagon yet. This is when the wagon on Rafay is forming.

 

In post #380 Lyner think's Rafay is not scum. This is after the soft claim.

 

Then Day 2 all of a sudden Rafay seems scummy to Lyner. So, yeah, what do you make of that, Imran?

1) I role-claim as the Vigilante.

2) Commander Shepard implies that I'm lying

I'm not implying that you're lying.

 

I understand the lack of certainty in this game, but the following posts are less than supportive:

 

I wonder if KevinH killed the vig.

It's ridiculous why would anyone reveal themselves over a dead player such a Martin...

And then there is the chance you killed the vig and claimed his role.

I trust him no more than KevinH, so there is a bit of belief but not much.

...perhaps me doing what I did caused a chain of events that will

lead to the town losing such as KevinH coming out as the vig if he even is the vig.

KevinH certainly went up on my radar as possible scum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You did go up on my scum radar, your were at the bottom or near the bottom in Day 1 but after your claim, obviously you would have to go up.

I'm always open to the possibility that you're not the vig, as for the other posts well I'm not going to be mentioning your claim without also mentioning the possibility you're not the vig.

However I won't be starting a mob against you just because it is unknown.

My townie trust level is not something you should care about as I consider anything is possible, which makes me paranoid.

Okay, role claim time again. I am the dietician.

 

Either KevinH is the vig or KevinH killed the vig. Therefore any other cannibal is 100% certainly scum. Well, I investigated Lyner tonight and he is a cannibal. Lyner is scum. No doubt about it.

 

Once I knew Lyner was scum I immediately wondered whether he was the SK or a goon, and in the latter case who his scum buddy might be. So I analyzed his Day 1 behavior and noted that he:

1. mostly posted fluff

2. only attacked inactives

3. never suspected or questioned anyone

4. defended both KevinH and Rafay when they had their initial wagon going

5. defended Rafay when his soft claim was under attack

6. had the deciding vote in the killgor versus KevinH wagon race

 

The latter was btw my main reason for investigating him in the first place, but also his staying under the radar.

 

Discarding the fluff and attacks on inactives, all that Lyner did was defend KevinH and Rafay and even that he mostly did by agreeing to posts by others rather than by putting forward any ideas of his own. If Lyner is a goon I thought it likely that his buddy be either KevinH or Rafay, which incidentally were my two main scum suspects on Day 1 anyway. Still, due to Lyner's lack of meaningful content it was hard to be sure about anything. There was still the possibility that he was the SK or that he had refrained from interacting with his scum buddy. Nevertheless, the thing that stood out most was him saving KevinH from being lynched at the end of Day 1. Unless KevinH is his scum buddy, why would scum Lyner care whether we lynch KevinH or killgor? Therefore KevinH is my prime partner suspect.

 

In order to do some further partner hunting and possibly get Lyner lynched I made a case against him to see how everyone would react. Obviously I wasn't going to claim yet as that would defeat the purpose of partner hunting and the Day was still long. Also I hoped that my case would get Lyner lynched without me claiming in which case I could do another investigation in night 2 and hopefully survive that night with further info to work or claim with on Day 3.

 

I had hardly started to get reactions to my case against Lyner as all of a sudden KevinH claimed vig. I have already presented my reasons to doubt KevinH's claim - I don't see much town motivation for his claim, while if he killed the real vig I do see the scum motivation. There is an additional reason though: his timing was ever so convenient for Lyner. Just as I was getting some people to suspect Lyner, KevinH steps in and diverts the discussion away from whom I thought might very wel be his scum buddy with a claim that made little sense to me from a town perspective. Since I had not gotten reactions from everyone yet I pushed for a NK vote and asked direct questions to those that had not responded yet. I still hoped to get the discussion back towards a Lyner lynch, or in case KevinH's claim was legit, maybe convince him to NK Lyner.

 

Meanwhile my scum read on Rafay was reducing for lack of a counter claim and for him saying he had blocked a player that was still alive. But then of course Shepard counter claimed, which as I have explained, basically confirms Rafay as scum (you might as well quit the charade now Rafay). Since any scum partner of Lyner was gonna be scum himself, Rafay being confirmed as such immediately got him back on my partner radar, although either of them could still be the SK. It certainly put Lyner's change of heart about Rafay between Day 1 and Day 2 in a different light. As, Imran already said, Lyner might very well be distancing himself. In contrast Lyner and KevinH have been disgustingly supportive of each other on Day 2.

 

Since Rafay was now confirmed as scum to the whole town, while Lyner was only confirmed to me, I no longer thought I had any chance of getting Lyner lynched without claiming. And also, as I'll explain below, I think Rafay is the better lynch candidate of the two. Futhermore, with all the claims going on I figured that even if I claimed there'd be at least some chance of surviving night 2 as there are now so many NK targets for the scum to choose from and even if I die, some other PR might survive because of it. So I figured it would be best to claim today and make sure that everyone knows that Lyner is scum. If I would get killed tonight I would no longer be able to share that information.

 

Except for Karl everyone has reacted to my case against Lyner now. I don't expect a reaction from Karl as he seems to have dropped out. This is what I've seen in the reactions to my Lyner case:

 

Defending Lyner: Lyner (duh), KevinH, Rafay

Somewhat suspicious of Lyner: Imran

Very suspicious of Lyner: Nerau, Shepard

Certain that Lyner is scum: Euclid

 

 

Now, what to make of all this? We have two confirmed scum in Lyner and Rafay, which is excellent, but which one to lynch? I think there's a good chance that KevinH is the third scum, but he is the least likely scum of the three and might still be the vig. I would therefore not favor lynching KevinH. Between the other two the question is IMO which one is most likely the SK. As lynching the SK would obviously be better than lynching a goon. There is scum pair evidence in Lyner's interaction with both KevinH and Rafay. If you look at the interaction between KevinH and Rafay though, it seems highly unlikely that they are a scum pair because KevinH was forcing Rafay to claim on Day 1. As a result, between Lyner and Rafay, the latter is more likely the SK in my opinion and therefore I will keep my vote on Rafay. KevinH should NK Lyner and if he doesn't then KevinH is most definitely scum.

I wonder if KevinH killed the vig.

 

I wonder if Euclid killed the Dietician.

 

 I couldn't resist.

 

 

@Rafay @Imran (@Karl as well, but... meh)

 

I'd like to know your reads on Lyner since if you have him as town there is no point in me pushing his case any further.

 

Did Kevin's hypotheses tick some nerves?

 

 

 

But yeah, Rafay, Imran, Karl and Nerau, some comments wouldn't hurt

 

We're still missing your important opinion on who you think is lying between me and Rafay.

 

At least your story seems more credible than rafay's statements, but I'll reread it incase it's a neat bs

 

 

Will reply to the rest later.

It keeps getting better and better.

 

Here's the way I see things.

The scum would love to have 3 dead players tonight.

The scum would love to know who I'm going to kill so they can kill somebody else.

So when I get told who I should night-kill, my spidey-sense begins to tingle.

 

Both Commander Shepard and Euclid of Alexandria have made well-written posts, with convincing arguments.

However, it could all be lies.

 

It started with Rafay vs Shepard.

Now add Euclid vs Lyner.

 

The answer at first seems obvious to me.  We lynch the known scum, Lyner.  Why didn't Euclid suggest that?  He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure. 

 

If Rafay and Shepard both claim to be the Roleblocker, why not let them both live and the real one can use his ability in the night.  We can sort out their differences later.  Lynch the known scum and maybe we'll get the Serial Killer and prevent a kill in the night.  Seems obvious.

 

But Euclid is not a bit slow in figuring things out.  He knew that given the scenario as presented, we would lynch Lyner.  What's his motive?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vote count 2.2

 

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (2) - Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan,

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) - 

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (1) - KevinH,

 

Not Voting - Nerau, Rafay, Commander Shepard, Lyner, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-3.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

A hypothetical conversation from the mafia daytalk thread:

 

Commander Shepard: They're on to us.  It's a 50-50 chance that I'll get lynched today.  And even if they lynch Rafay, I'm dead soon thereafter with you next in line.

 

Euclid of Alexandria: It's a good thing we killed the Dietician last night.  I can divert attention away from the Roleblocker debate by claiming to be the Dietician and fingering Lyner.  They'll lynch him and then me, but you'll still stand a chance since your counterclaim to Rafay was very convincing.

 

Commander Shepard: Won't that be too obvious?

 

Euclid of Alexandria: I'll use reverse psychology by suggesting Rafay but they'll eventually figure out that Lyner is the best choice.

I am giving notice i will most likely not be posting until sunday due to lack of forum access 

I would like to see a vote about whom I should night-kill but I'm not sure I want to be bound by it.

So when I get told who I should night-kill, my spidey-sense begins to tingle.

Does not compute. I guess it's hard though to keep your story straight when you're scum.

 

The answer at first seems obvious to me. We lynch the known scum, Lyner. Why didn't Euclid suggest that? He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure.

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:

- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.

- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.

In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

 

The line of reasoning with Lyner is quite similar:

- If KevinH is telling the truth then Lyner can't be the vig so he must be scum.

- If KevinH is lying then he must have killed the real vig so Lyner must be scum.

In either case Lyner is scum. No doubt about it.

 

With two confirmed scum we should go for the SK. I think Lyner is probably a goon so Rafay is more likely the SK. Also, although from me Lyner is confirmed scum, for anyone else it depends on how much faith they put in my claim. Rafay is the only scum that is confirmed for the entire town.