655 replies to this topic

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH
I think my plan to lynch Rafay and NK Lyner would also work if we do it the other way around. I prefer the Rafay lynch as I think he is the more likely SK of the two, which is IMO the important thing to consider here.

A Rafay lynch could also tell us something about Shepard' claim. I guess a Lyner lynch could similarly say something about my claim. From my perspective the latter is obviously irrelevant though.

Anyway, KevinH, my question to you is: if we lynch one of them and they flip scum, do you agree that you must NK the other because it simply is the best play?


@Shepard
Do you agree that you should definitely not block KevinH tonight?

[Lyner]

Busy weekends

 

 

 

Bandwagoning already? There's not much I can say more to prove my innocence except providing alternative theory

 

Euclid lied, so he's either a vanilla or a mafia, can't see him as a SK. Let's assume he's a mafia

He claimed I try to lynch a known townie, killgor. Well if I AM one of the scum I'd say I [excuse] so I missed the voting, it doesn't even matter who gets lynched, they're both townie :|

Therefore his reason to investigate me is weak. Also I didn't unvote because killgor's reaction to my vote is bad

Let's see what happened if I get lynched tonight

I turned out as townie, Kevin NK'ed euclid, Euclid's partner NK'ed Kevin(or not, if he believes he's not under suspicion), and SK will NK one of the following: Nerau, Rafay, Commander Shepard, Imran Ehsan, Xx Karl xX

I don't think Nerau and Karl will be NK'ed for they rarely post and it's favorable, Rafay and Shephard is currently battling each other, one of them is scum, and Shephard's probably Euclid's partner IMO. Then I guess Imran would be the target, unless he is the SK which means Nerau would be the target

Now that leaves us with Karl, Shephard, Rafay, and Imran/Nerau. Rafay and Shephard will vote each other, aand the townies are in a really bad position, of course this is ignoring the power townies. This might be a risky move by mafias but the odds are not bad :|

 

That's all for now I guess, I won't vote yet until I figure out the SK and said it all

 

 

I'm a townie. Therefore Euclid lied.

[Commander Shepard]

@Shepard
Do you agree that you should definitely not block KevinH tonight?

 

I will probably be blocking some one, most likely Lyner.

[Commander Shepard]

Lynching the person with the greater aspect of being the SK is more important.

I may have wanted him to be mafia before Euclid came forward, but lynching a SK is more important for the town's townie pop.

 

And if Rafay survives and is the SK then I'm not sure what I will do during the night.

If we don't lynch the SK we have a greater chance of losing as there could be 3 deaths during the night which could give the upper hand to scum and the game.

With the SK lynched I have a greater chance of deciding how many people get killed during the night, could be just 1.

[KevinH]

If Lyner is scum, I think he has a high chance of being the serial killer because I don't see him teaming up with anyone.

 

If Euclid is townie, then my whole theory about he and Shepard being scum buddies falls apart, so Rafay is indeed the next most suspicious.

 

However, if Lyner flips as a Mafia goon, then Rafay may be the Serial Killer and has 1-shot immunity to my kill.  However, I think it' worth the risk.

 

If Euclid is confirmed as the Dietician, he'll get a chance to investigate again and hopefully find the 3rd scum.  Both scum factions are in a dilemma because they don't want the Dietician to discover the truth about another player (whether townie or scum) and reveal it, nor do they want the roleblocker around to stop their night kills, nor do they want me around to make my own night kill.

 

It would be bad for the town if I killed somebody that Euclid investigates, so despite the disadvantages of letting the scum know my target, I will announce it: if Lyncer is scum, I will night-kill Rafay.

 

Rafay, if you are the true role-blocker, go ahead and block me.  That will help the town with the decision to lynch on Day 3.

 

Euclid, don't investigate Shepard or Rafay.  You already seem convinced of Rafay's guilt, but the test of his ability to role-block me should tip the scales one way or the other.  If I get night-killed, then there's a greater probability that you'll live and can share your results.

 

If I get night-killed but Rafay lives, then that will look bad for Commander Shepard.

 

I like this plan.

[KevinH]

I just considered that my failed kill on Rafay might be the result of the Serial Killer's one-shot immunity rather than a roleblock.

My plan is not so ingenious but I'll still stick with it as the best option.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH
I think it is in the best interest of the town if I don't say too much about who I'll investigate. Obviously it won't be Lyner or you as both have already admitted to be cannibals.

I just considered that my failed kill on Rafay might be the result of the Serial Killer's one-shot immunity rather than a roleblock.
My plan is not so ingenious but I'll still stick with it as the best option.

I guess this is another reason to lynch Rafay and NK Lyner instead of the other way around. Since Lyner obviously isn't the RB he can't block your NK and thus if he doesn't die we know that either Lyner is the SK or you didn't target him. If we do it the other way around and Rafay doesn't die in the night there'd be the third option of Rafay blocking you and thus we would have less information to go on the next day.

Anyway, you say that if Lyner flips scum you would NK Rafay. Great. I agree that that would be the right course of action. That only leaves the other part of my question. If we flip Rafay as scum, will you then NK Lyner?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

EBWODP: Correction, Lyner has not admitted to being cannibal, the mod told me he is.

[Commander Shepard]

If Lyner is scum, I think he has a high chance of being the serial killer because I don't see him teaming up with anyone.

 

Why don't you see him teaming up with anyone?

 

 

If Euclid is townie, then my whole theory about he and Shepard being scum buddies falls apart, so Rafay is indeed the next most suspicious.

 

I don't like how you're judging me over someone agreeing with me.

I think your theory is misguided and based on almost nothing.

 

 

However, if Lyner flips as a Mafia goon, then Rafay may be the Serial Killer and has 1-shot immunity to my kill.  However, I think it' worth the risk.

 

If Rafay flips Mafia goons there is a good chance Lyner is his buddy and the SK is someone else.

 

 If I get night-killed but Rafay lives, then that will look bad for Commander Shepard.

 

I like this plan.

 

 

Your plan sucks, mainly because for some reason it is my fault if you die if when don't lynch Rafay and Rafay survives the night.

[KevinH]

If I get night-killed but Rafay lives, then that will look bad for Commander Shepard.
I like this plan.

 

I just considered that my failed kill on Rafay might be the result of the Serial Killer's one-shot immunity rather than a roleblock.

 

Your plan sucks, mainly because for some reason it is my fault if you die if when don't lynch Rafay and Rafay survives the night.

It won't look so bad for Commander Shepard because of the fact that Rafay could be the Serial Killer or the Roleblocker ... which is pretty much the case we have now.

OK, I'm on board with the Rafay lynch which will expose Shepard if Rafay's the Roleblocker.

Unvote.
Vote: Rafay

I'll night-kill either Shepard or Lyner if Rafay is the Roleblocker.

[Commander Shepard]

Lol sorry I skipped over that post.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Since Rafay is at L-1 now... before anyone hammers...

KevinH, will you NK Lyner if Rafay flips scum?
Shepard, will you not block KevinH?

[Commander Shepard]

If Rafay flips as the SK I will not block KevinH.

If he flips as a Mafia goon I will not block KevinH.

I promise.

 

I will probably go with someone else not that is not a known scum if Rafay flips as a SK.

[KevinH]

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Now that KevinH and Shepard have answered those questions... I wouldn't have a problem with someone cutting the day short by hammering Rafay. If someone wishes to explore something further though, that's okay by me too of course.

[Chaplain of death]

Vote count 2.3

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (4) - Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan, Commander Shepard, KevinH,

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (1) -  Nerau,

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

Not Voting - Rafay,  Lyner, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-1.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

[Lyner]

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

 

 

 

Well played :|

 

vote: Euclid of Alexandria

[Euclid of Alexandria]

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 
Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.
2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.
3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

[KevinH]

I still have a nagging feeling, but it's not strong enough to take a different course of action.

 

Why would Euclid falsely claim to be the Dietician and identify Lyner?

The only reason I could see would be to shift attention away from the Rafay - Shepard impasse.

Even so, he still wanted to lynch Rafay so I am really inclined to trust that Euclid is the true Dietician.

 

I'll probably get killed tonight.  You know my targets and if they survive, they should be lynched as the Serial Killer.

[Lyner]

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 
Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.
2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.
3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

 

1. Be objective Euclid

2. You can identify the scum by proving townies' innocence

3. If Rafay turns out to be scum then congrats you'll lynch 3 townies instead of 4, which will make it 2 scum vs 2 townies, if SK/Mafia pick different targets.