655 replies to this topic

[Imran Ehsan]

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.

 

Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.

 

If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.

 

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.

 

If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)

If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.

 

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

 

The problem with that approach is if we lynch a scum the confirmed townie immediately is dead (dead scum's partner will hit him). We have no docs so no protection can be given. We have a RB but if we are not sure who the 2nd scum is RB cant neutralise that threat as well. Finally we have the wildcard SK who can kill anyone he wants without dying or being blocked for one more night. So, we should really be taking action that has a god probability of identifying the SK and lynching him. Is Rafay the likely SK or one of the mafia goons? is Lyner one of the goons or is it possible that he is the SK? If Rafay and Lyner are the two goons who is the most likely SK? If one of these two have a good probability of being the SK instead of one of the goons we should lynch him. And we should plan the night with our power roles such that the SK can be identified if Rafay and Lyner are goons and neither is the SK.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

"If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB"
Isn't it possible that Rafay is the Roleblocker and Shepard is lying?

It might be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

Sure it's possible. It requires that Shepard is a complete idiot though. It's so unlikely that I feel quite comfortable calling Rafay a confirmed scum.

 

On the other hand, if Lyner is a Cannibal, then he must be scum.
(Assuming one believes that I'm the Vigilante)

Similarly it's possible that Lyner is the vig. It requires that you are a complete idiot though. It's so unlikely that I feel quite comfortable calling Lyner a confirmed scum.

The difference here is that for the Rafay case it should be clear to anyone that he is scum, while for the Lyner case it depends on how much faith you put in my claim. From my perspective they are both confirmed scum. For anyone else there is the possibility that I am a scum that killed the dietician and then false claimed to implicate Lyner. However, I can't see why a scum that hasn't been under any suspicion worth mentioning would make himself a NK target by making such a false claim just to make Lyner look bad. And although I appreciate the effort of some to try and come up with such a reason, they failed to do so in even a remotely convincing way in my opinion.
 
 

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.
 
Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.
 
If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.
If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.
 
If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.
If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.
 
If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)
If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.
 
I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

Funny how you ignore the scenario where both Shepard and Rafay are lying. There is the possibility that Shepard is a scum that killed the RB and then false claimed to implicate Rafay. However, I can't see why a scum that hasn't been under any suspicion worth mentioning would make himself a NK target by making such a false claim just to make Rafay look bad. And although I appreciate the effort of some to try and come up with such a reason, they failed to do so in even a remotely convincing way in my opinion.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

If you are a goon then since Rafay and Lyner are confirmed scum there cannot be a scum that is dead already.

If you are the SK then you have killed the vig. The goons would not have killed one of their own and can not have killed the SK so they also killed a townie. The only way a scum could be already dead is if the real vig NKd a goon, which was a 2 in 10 chance.

If you are the vig then you have killed a townie. The goons would not have killed one of their own and can not have killed the SK so they also killed a townie. The only way a scum could already be dead is if the SK NKd a goon, which was a 2 in 10 shot at.

Given the above it is best to assume that we currently have 5 townies and all 3 scum alive. If we lynch a VT today and two more townies get killed tonight we'd be going into Day 3 with at most 5 alive 3 of which would be scum. We really need to lynch a scum today, preferably the SK.

[Lyner]

This theory is crazy. A vanilla townie couldn't even know whether the
dietician is still alive or not unless he is himself the dietician.
Also, vanilla townies don't lie.

 

That's why it is called a theory :|

 

 

KevinH's theory of me and Shepard day talking doesn't make sense. I
already explained why. I'm not surprised that he keeps pusing it though,
nor that Rafay joined him in that, and now you as well. It just shows
that the scum are getting desperate.

 

I'm easier to read than you are. The reason is that I actually post
stuff that can be read. You on the other hand just posted fluff mostly.
Although since I started my case on you that has changed. You now post
lies instead.

 

 

Shepard, Rafay, Nerau, me... you sure have a lot of scum reads all of a
sudden. Especially since you had almost none before, only Rafay really,
and even him only since Day 2. I guess you've become desperate since my
claim outed you as scum and have now resorted to the only play you have
left: wildly throwing around suspicions.

 

I'm just providing another possibility, and what can I do with short statements to prove my innocence? Like it or not I have to do it

[Lyner]

this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

The part that I've bolded is just another lie.

 

I didn't include Nerau because he had already responded. I asked him in #449 and in #468 he responded saying that my vote on you was justified and, as I read it anyway, he also said there that you posted BS.

 

 

Justified. not "True, I agree with you, he's suspicious"

 

Though this is not that important

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Assuming that Lyner is scum, the scenarios below show that if we lynch Rafay today and he flips scum the town will definitely still have a chance to win the game tomorrow. Probably a good chance even, especially if he flips SK. Even in the unlikely event that Rafay flips RB all hope would not yet be lost.
 
Since we cannot have no lynch MYLO is effectively LYLO. I make the distinction because with "MYLO or better" it is more likely that we are allowed one more mislynch than with "LYLO or better".

 
Assumptions:
- Lyner is scum
- Day 2 lynch is Rafay
- If the vig is still alive it must be KevinH.
- all 3 scum are still alive (if not we win by lynching Lyner Day 3 and, in the unlikely case that Rafay flips RB, Shepard Day 4)
 
 
Rafay flips SK
Night 2 actions:
- vig NKs Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)
- RB blocks anyone but KevinH

Possible outcomes:

• Lyner survives Night 2 -> vig didn't target Lyner -> KevinH and Lyner are goons. Lynch one Day 3 and the other Day 4.
   
• Lyner is the only Night 2 kill -> Day 3 starts with 6 alive one of which is a goon.
   
• There are 2 Night 2 kills -> the vig must have been alive -> Lyner was NKd -> Day 3 starts with 5 alive one of which is a goon.

 

 

Rafay flips goon
Night 2 actions:
- vig NK Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)
- RB blocks anyone but KevinH

Possible outcomes:

• Lyner survives Night 2. There can not have been 3 NKs because of the following contradiction: 3 NKs -> vig was still alive -> vig targeted Lyner, but Lyner survived -> 2 NKs at most. Therefore in this case Day 3 starts with at least 5 alive at most 2 of which are scum and town can get a majority for the Day 3 lynching of Lyner.
  * Lyner flips goon -> KevinH did not target Lyner -> KevinH is the SK -> Lynch KevinH Day 4.
  * Lyner flips SK -> Day 4 starts with at least 3 alive one of which is the goon, i.e. LYLO or better.
   
• Lyner is killed in Night 2 -> Day 3 starts with at least 4 alive one of which is the SK, i.e. MYLO or better.

 

 

Rafay flips RB
Shepard and Lyner are scum but the third scum is still unknown.
 
Night 2 action:
- vig Nks Lyner or Shepard whomever he thinks is least likely the SK.

Possible outcomes:

• Both Lyner and Shepard are killed in Night 2 -> Day 3 starts with at least 4 alive at most 1 of which is scum, i.e. MYLO or better.
   
• There is only 1 Night 2 kill and it is Lyner or Shepard -> lynch the other Day 3. If the vig is still alive he should kill his prime suspect Night 3. If he kills the scum we win, otherwise Day 4 starts with 3 or 4 alive one of which is scum, i.e. LYLO or MYLO. If the vig is dead Day 4 starts with 4 alive one of which is scum, i.e. MYLO.
   
• There are 2 Night 2 kills and one of them is Lyner or Shepard -> Day 3 starts with 5 alive one of which is the SK and at most one of which is a goon so the town can get a majority for the Day 3 lynching of Lyner or Shepard (whomever survived Night 2). If the unknown scum happened to be killed in Night 2 we win, otherwise Day 4 for starts with at least 3 alive one of which is scum, i.e. LYLO or better.
   
• There are 3 Night 2 kills -> the vig must have been alive and killed a goon (Lyner or Shepard) -> Day 3 starts with 4 alive one of which is the SK and possibly one of which is a goon. If one of the 3NKs is the unknown scum we are at MYLO, otherwise we are screwed unless we lynch the SK Day 3 and the vig survived Night 2 to kill the goon Night 3.
   
• Both Lyner and Shepard survive Night 2 -> prospects of town winning look bad, but we can still win if we are lucky with the number of Night 2 kills (low), the unknown scum (NKd) and/or the PR night actions.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@mod: We really need Karl replaced, otherwise town may lose just because he doesn't vote due to his inactivity.

[Chaplain of death]

I have been trying. It is not however in my power to make new players appear from thin air.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@mod: What about killgor? I know it's unusual but since we all already know that he was VT in his previous role... he wouldn't know anything a normal replacement wouldn't.

[Chaplain of death]

He has access to the thread for dead people. Therefore he does have knowledge that would effect his game play.

[Commander Shepard]

I think Karl is a VT, if we play it right then the town can still win even with this set back. 

Though going into Day 3 we can make no mistakes.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Yeah, I Think he is VT too. We are at a disadvantage without his vote though. Today should be okay as I can't imagine anyone but Rafay being the lynch, but tomorrow we might actually need his vote.

 

By the way, Shepard, I think it's about time that you put your vote on Rafay now.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

He has access to the thread for dead people. Therefore he does have knowledge that would effect his game play.

 

I didn't know that, but yeah, obviously he can't replace then.

[Commander Shepard]

I'll put on my vote on him after Nerau says something, which should be today.

[Commander Shepard]

Well that's enough time.

 

Vote: Rafay

[KevinH]

Rafay flips goon
Night 2 actions:
- vig NK Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)

In this scenario, Lyner could be the Serial Killer, so my shot would be blocked. 

Is Euclid trying to set me up?

 

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

In fact, I would love to totally clear him.

 

Unvote.

Vote: Lyner.

 

This course of action guarantees the real Roleblocker will get an action tonight.

 

Scenarios:

 

Lyner flips townie

In this case, I'll announce my kill: It will be Euclid.

 

Lyner flips scum

This will pretty much confirm Euclid as townie.

The two remaining scum will have to choose among the known power roles.  Hopefully they'll make the same choice.

I'll kill whomever I most suspect to be scum.

 

 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Rafay flips goon
Night 2 actions:
- vig NK Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)

In this scenario, Lyner could be the Serial Killer, so my shot would be blocked. 
Is Euclid trying to set me up?

In this scenario, if Lyner doesn't die Night 2, we lynch him Day 3. If Lyner flips goon it would prove that you are scum, if he flips SK it wouldn't.

I made this clear in the next part of that post. The part that you failed to include as it wouldn't fit your story of me trying to set you up. So to be honest, it looks more like you are trying to set me up actually.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I would like to point out to all non voting townies that in case of a tie the lynch will be the first to get their final vote. It was exactly by this rule that Lyner got us to lynch a known townie yesterday. So, pretty please start voting already. You can always change your mind later so there is really no reason not to vote.

[Nerau]

Vote: Lyner

 

I want to hear more from him

 

hes has yet to post anything in my opinion worth anything dissapproving these allegations

[Commander Shepard]

I can't say I agree with voting Lyner and I doubt he has much of a defense as you can't defend much against that.

The most he could so is ask the question as to if Euclid is lying and is scum and beg for his life.

That doesn't interest me much, but I guess it may be entertaining. 

 

I suggest that KevinH should NK him instead.