The Vigilante is seeing exactly what we're seeing.  He can't be any more sure about someone being scum than we are on deciding for lynch.

 

I'm still pondering probabilities.  

 

It's 7/10 chance to get townie and only 3/10 chance to get scum.  I prefer to have more townies than less. I advocate the N-L word on Day 1 when it makes sense.  However, there's a 1/10 chance of hitting the Serial Killer which could save townies from dying in future nights.  Unfortunately, the Serial Killer has 1-shot night kill immunity so it would take 2 nights to kill him.  Maybe the Vigilante should save his bullets after all.

As I have tried to explain before... it is only 3/10 versus 7/10 if the vig ignores everything that has been said and done on Day 1 and just goes ahead and completely randomly kills someone. In numbers that would look as follows:

0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3
10x0.3 = 3 scum
 
Suppose however that the vig's ability to read people is such that he guesses correct significantly more often than a random kill. Also suppose that he has two townie reads and two scum reads, leaving six null reads. Let's keep the null reads scum probability at 0.3 and reduce the townie reads scum probability to 0.1. The previous would come to look like this:
 
0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1
2x0.5 + 6x0.3 + 2x0.1 = 3 scum
 
As you can see, under these assumptions, the chance of hitting scum is up to 0.5. That is 50% chance of hitting scum.
 
I am aware that the above is a simplification of reality. I just put it forward to illustrate that the odds of a capable vig are nowhere near as bad as KevinH would have us believe.

@mod request to prod reign of terror.

Unless I've missed something this post was his last. It was posted 24 April 2013, 12:17 AM, well over 3 RL days ago.

Hello I'm here! Don't need a prod just give me a couple minutes to catch up and I'll provide my opinions.

Unvote

 

I want to apologize for my inactivity, been dealing with some RL stuff.  I'm feeling that Commander Shepard is scummy and Kazio is right, but I'm not sure enough to throw a vote on him yet.  I want to wait until we get a replacement for Xarastier who I feel was most scummy so far before I make a final decision.

That post makes no sense to me at all. Why would you say Xarastier was the most scummy? All he did was cast a random vote. We've not heard from him since. Do you consider random voting scummy? Also, why would you unvote Xarastier if you feel he is the most scummy?

well euclid, i voted for you because i think you are trying to cause dissent.

I agree with eulcid if you agree that commander shepard is acting scummy then why just unvote? What you aren't saying scares me a little bit

 

FoS: Rot

Sorry for my absence, the internet at my hotel cut out after the first day. I am back at home now and can stay on top of the vote counts, prod's, warnings etc. better. 

 

I would recommend that people stay away from going huge bolded font in the future. It saddens me when I get the vibe that people aren't enjoying the game for what it is, a game. Obviously there is no rule for the usage of fonts other than that this color is reserved for the mod, but, I'd prefer not to have a font size war.

 

I will extend the deadline and get the role PM out to Xarastiers replacement with all haste. An updated vote count will also be forthcoming.

Unvote

 

I want to apologize for my inactivity, been dealing with some RL stuff.  I'm feeling that Commander Shepard is scummy and Kazio is right, but I'm not sure enough to throw a vote on him yet.  I want to wait until we get a replacement for Xarastier who I feel was most scummy so far before I make a final decision.

 

Please explain.

Kaz has been largely behind in my conversation with him, he keeps bringing up points I answered pages ago.

And his character has been something I find odd, not necessarily scummy, just odd.

 

On what do you agree with Kaz that I am scummy?

I agree with eulcid if you agree that commander shepard is acting scummy then why just unvote? What you aren't saying scares me a little bit

 

FoS: Rot

 

I don't feel RoT said enough in his post.

He simply said he agrees with Kaz, but not why and not on what.

Unvote

 

I want to apologize for my inactivity, been dealing with some RL stuff.  I'm feeling that Commander Shepard is scummy and Kazio is right, but I'm not sure enough to throw a vote on him yet.  I want to wait until we get a replacement for Xarastier who I feel was most scummy so far before I make a final decision.

 

Who else have you found suspicious on Day 1? Whats your feeling on lynching lurkers? Thoughts on who the vig should target on Night 1?

And yeah..strange moves from killgor. These are his last 3 posts:

 

 

i actually want to hear from nerau. don't know why but i'm getting vibes from him.

 

Vibes? On what basis? Nerau has been pretty inactive until lately. Also why the sudden unvoting and voting for Euclid?

 

 

unvote

 

vote: Euclid

 

 

out of all the reactions i noted thus far i'll be betting my 2 cents on euclid being scum.

 

I dont necessary disagree. I have also found Euclid's posts suspicious..but care to explain more? What kind of reaction are you referring to here?

 

well euclid, i voted for you because i think you are trying to cause dissent.

 

Also...clarify with examples?

 

Right now it seems like you are making short, grand statements without backing anything up?

 

unvote

 

vote: Euclid

 

 

out of all the reactions i noted thus far i'll be betting my 2 cents on euclid being scum.

If you just vote for me without giving me something to respond to then you're not really hunting scum. So, what exactly in my reaction made you say this?

 

 

well euclid, i voted for you because i think you are trying to cause dissent.

 

Dodging my question with another vague accusation. Let me rephrase.

 

If you just vote for me accuse me of causing dissent without giving me something to respond to then you're not really hunting scum. So, what exactly in my reaction made you say this?

 

 

Also, between whom has dissent between created by me? Please include quotes or references to (specific parts of) my posts to give your accusation some substance.

I dont necessary disagree. I have also found Euclid's posts suspicious..but care to explain more? What kind of reaction are you referring to here?

 

 

Tbh I would like for you to be more specific about your FoS at me in #146 as well. Your case against me seems to be build on:

1. You reading into my posts that I throw "wild accusations" and I say definite things like "he must be scum."

2. You having a different opinion than me about what useful info there is on Day 1 (vote records, active vs inactive).

3. Me commenting on your choice to vote reign of terror rather than Xarastier.

 

 Ad 1. I have done neither as I explained in #149 to which IIRC you never answered.

Ad 2. Do you consider everyone that disagrees with you on something suspicious?

Ad 3. Clearly I was just prompting you to clarify, which you have since done.

 

All in all a pretty weak case I'd say. But maybe I underestimate you and you were throwing that FoS at me mainly to hunt scum amongst those that sheep to it. If that's the case. Good job. I should probably give you some town points for that.

I'm gonna say it again folks now you're beginning to believe me there is something off about these 2 fellas kaz and euclid. They are really upto something. THey wanna pin sum1 and pin'em good.

Tbh I would like for you to be more specific about your FoS at me in #146 as well. Your case against me seems to be build on:

1. You reading into my posts that I throw "wild accusations" and I say definite things like "he must be scum."

 

All in all a pretty weak case I'd say. But maybe I underestimate you and you were throwing that FoS at me mainly to hunt scum amongst those that sheep to it. If that's the case. Good job. I should probably give you some town points for that.

 

I generally find your wording suspicious.

You say he said you did definite things, he did not.

 

 

 

Nope. Everyone who is posting around now and making wild accusations are doing so out of hunches and "hey..thaaats a suspicious post..he must be scum!!" Pretty much what you are doing.

 

 

Things you said below.

 

 

It all depends on what other information has become available and how the next day develops. The dietician is the only one that can really judge when it is in our best interest for him to come forward. Since he is a townie I'd rather just trust him than have possible scum pressuring him into coming forward prematurely. So, Martino and Commander Shepard, please stop doing that. It's kind of scummy.

 

 

 

Therefore, scum have a much greater interest than town in the dietician coming forward as soon as he finds a cannibal, as per Martino's suggestion. Ergo, either Martino is scum or he failed to think this through properly.

 

 

 Great to see you arrive at the scene Martino! 

 

I must say though... I find your first post to be kind of scummy. 

 

 

Your voting seems scummy because you vote for someone who has been very active in hunting scum. Your statement that Kaz has done nothing but throw suspicions at you and Imran is a blatant misrep. He has been questioning, analyzing and since he was on the KevinH wagon obviously he had suspicions there too. This comes on top of your earlier misrep of Kaz where you said he put KevinH at L-3, when in fact it was L-4 and your dodging my calling you out on this. Yes, I am trying to frame you, and for very good reason too: you smell of scum.

 

I find you very suspicious.

I'm gonna say it again folks now you're beginning to believe me there is something off about these 2 fellas kaz and euclid. They are really upto something. THey wanna pin sum1 and pin'em good.

 

I find it suspicious but not by much.

There is other possible Mafia combinations I feel that is possible.

 

#60

 

 Unvote

Vote Rafay

 

For saying that Kaziocore jumped on the KevinH wagon when there were already 3 votes on it (it was just me and Xarastier at that point). Kaziocore seems to me to have actually been doing some scum hunting. Now that Rafay's vote is no longer random his voting for Kaziocore seems scummy.

 

I should have added the above quote to the post above but deal with it.

Commander Shepard's delicious weak case recipe

1. State that someone is suspicious.

2. Post a bunch of random quotes of him, non of which show anti-town behavior.

3. Repeat that you find him suspicious.

4. Don't bother to explain what exactly you find suspicious about those quotes.

 

Anyway, I was talking to Imran. Butt out please.

That post makes no sense to me at all. Why would you say Xarastier was the most scummy? All he did was cast a random vote. We've not heard from him since. Do you consider random voting scummy? Also, why would you unvote Xarastier if you feel he is the most scummy?

I thought Xarastier was scummy because of his not removing his random vote when KevinH was at 4 votes.  Since I know now that this was because of inactivity not just lurking I felt the need to unvote.  I am completely neutral on Xarastier being scummy or not because I want to hear what his replacement has to say hopefully before the day ends.  Hope that clarifies for everyone.

 

Who else have you found suspicious on Day 1? Whats your feeling on lynching lurkers? Thoughts on who the vig should target on Night 1?

As I said before I have found Commander Shepard to be scummy.  Most of the reasons are the same as Euclid's in Post #89 which I feel that Commander Shepard left unanswered.  He has not done anything since that point that changes my opinion of him.  I think that since I have stopped my accidental lurking and Xarastier is being replaced there really is not any really obvious lurkers.  The vig should target who he thinks is in the best interest of the town.  Hopefully he is actively reading the thread so that he can make the most informed decision possible.

The Vigilante is seeing exactly what we're seeing.  He can't be any more sure about someone being scum than we are on deciding for lynch.

 

I'm still pondering probabilities.  

 

It's 7/10 chance to get townie and only 3/10 chance to get scum.  I prefer to have more townies than less. I advocate the N-L word on Day 1 when it makes sense.  However, there's a 1/10 chance of hitting the Serial Killer which could save townies from dying in future nights.  Unfortunately, the Serial Killer has 1-shot night kill immunity so it would take 2 nights to kill him.  Maybe the Vigilante should save his bullets after all.

I'm going to respectfully disagree here.  I think the Vigilante has a higher chance of hitting scum then us lynching.  This is because he does not have to try to convince the town that someone is scum and try to get enough votes while the scum are defending that person.  He can just choose one person to get rid of.  I think that the town has a better chance with the Vigilante nightkilling someone.  Hopefully the vig agrees and does what he thinks is best.

Commander Shepard's delicious weak case recipe

1. State that someone is suspicious.

2. Post a bunch of random quotes of him, non of which show anti-town behavior.

3. Repeat that you find him suspicious.

4. Don't bother to explain what exactly you find suspicious about those quotes.

 

Anyway, I was talking to Imran. Butt out please.

 

 

The quotes are about how you were pointing out about people being scummy or scum.

Imran said you were pretty much saying people were scum, which you were pretty much doing.

 

Here's what you said earlier

 

 

1. You reading into my posts that I throw "wild accusations" and I say definite things like "he must be scum."

 

He did not say you said "he must be scum", he said you're pretty much doing it.

Not that you used that definite quote.

I find you to be intentionally misleading, though that could just be how you post.

I'm gonna say it again folks now you're beginning to believe me there is something off about these 2 fellas kaz and euclid. They are really upto something. THey wanna pin sum1 and pin'em good.

Do you really think that "gonna say it again" is gonna make anyone believe anything they didn't before? You should bring forward something new. I guess you can't though.

 

And yes, Rafay, I want to pin someone. Specifically, I want to pin you. That's been pretty obvious so don't act as though you have uncovered something that others can't see without your help.

 

If I am scummy because Kaziocore seems to share my suspicion towards you... then by that same logic you and Commander Shepard are scummy for sharing suspicion towards Kaziocore and myself. I'm just saying... weak argument is weak.

@reign of terror: You're recent posts are gaining you town cred with me. If you keep that up I will have to move you from null read to town read.

@Commander Shepard: I'm not gonna discuss semantics with you like Kaziocore did. It sucks and more importantly has nothing to do with scum hunting. Go troll someone else please.