Vote count 2.3

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (4) - Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan, Commander Shepard, KevinH,

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (1) -  Nerau,

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

Not Voting - Rafay,  Lyner, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-1.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

 

 

 

Well played :|

 

vote: Euclid of Alexandria

 

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.

2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.

3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

I still have a nagging feeling, but it's not strong enough to take a different course of action.

 

Why would Euclid falsely claim to be the Dietician and identify Lyner?

The only reason I could see would be to shift attention away from the Rafay - Shepard impasse.

Even so, he still wanted to lynch Rafay so I am really inclined to trust that Euclid is the true Dietician.

 

I'll probably get killed tonight.  You know my targets and if they survive, they should be lynched as the Serial Killer.

 

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.

2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.

3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

 

1. Be objective Euclid

2. You can identify the scum by proving townies' innocence

3. If Rafay turns out to be scum then congrats you'll lynch 3 townies instead of 4, which will make it 2 scum vs 2 townies, if SK/Mafia pick different targets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

 

 

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.

2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.

3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

 

 

 

1. Be objective Euclid

2. You can identify the scum by proving townies' innocence

3. If Rafay turns out to be scum then congrats you'll lynch 3 townies instead of 4, which will make it 2 scum vs 2 townies, if SK/Mafia pick different targets.

 

 

1. The mod told me you are a cannibal. You can't be the vig. So you must be scum. That's objective.

2. PoE only works if you identify ALL townies, not just one or two.

3. 3 townie NKs isn't gonna happen. If KevinH is scum then the vig is dead and we only have 2 NKs. If KevinH is the vig then he NKs a scum (you).

Hello everybody, I'm a replacement player.  I haven't had a chance to catch up on what's happening, but I will definitely be able to over the weekend and give my opinion on stuff.

^ I should have posted earlier to say that Alternate is replacing Xx Karl xX. 

Welcome to the party Alt!

 

 

 

 

If Rafay is scum, I'll NK Lyner.

 

Objection, Kevin and I can't prove our innocence this way since both of us will be NK-ed

 

1. You are not innocent, so your innocence can't be proven.

2. The town objective is to kill scum, not to prove anyone's innocence.

3. If you and KevinH are NK-ed then, with two confirmed scum dead (Rafay and you), unless town has already won, KevinH's innocence is proven.

 

 

1. Be objective Euclid

2. You can identify the scum by proving townies' innocence

3. If Rafay turns out to be scum then congrats you'll lynch 3 townies instead of 4, which will make it 2 scum vs 2 townies, if SK/Mafia pick different targets.

 

1. The mod told me you are a cannibal. You can't be the vig. So you must be scum. That's objective.

2. PoE only works if you identify ALL townies, not just one or two.

3. 3 townie NKs isn't gonna happen. If KevinH is scum then the vig is dead and we only have 2 NKs. If KevinH is the vig then he NKs a scum (you).

 

1. From your view, you sure are good at sweet talking

2. By proving someone's innocence it elevate the chance and we can narrow it down far better, but that's irrelevant. My point is if I can't prove my innocence then I can't prove your lies

3. I'm a townie so I'd be dead, so no, 2 townies are guaranteed to be dead, 1 more if we have bad luck

If Rafay is the SK, then I have a chance of blocking the other scum faction that is left.

Meaning the only real guaranteed person to die would be you in that possible situation.

So 2 townies are not guaranteed dead, not even 1 townie is guaranteed dead from our view.

 

 

Unless you know Rafay is not the SK because you're.

@Lyner

 

Props to you for not giving up even when you are caught. I could come up with another 1-2-3-response but I get bored. All has been said.

 

You can falsely claim town and call me a liar all you want. There's no motivation for scum to claim as I did. Town can safely (and correctly) assume that you are scum.

Welcome, Alternate_Tree!

Well, you people are talking a lot in this game.  I've read through page 10, and am still forming opinions.  Just wanted to give an update on my catching up and then I'll post actual thoughts when I get through the mountain of posts.

If Rafay is the SK, then I have a chance of blocking the other scum faction that is left.

Meaning the only real guaranteed person to die would be you in that possible situation.

So 2 townies are not guaranteed dead, not even 1 townie is guaranteed dead from our view.

 

 

Unless you know Rafay is not the SK because you're.

 

2 being Kevin and me,  cause from my view Kevin is the only confirmed power role here

 

 

@Lyner

 

Props to you for not giving up even when you are caught. I could come up with another 1-2-3-response but I get bored. All has been said.

 

You can falsely claim town and call me a liar all you want. There's no motivation for scum to claim as I did. Town can safely (and correctly) assume that you are scum.

 

Caught by you? Same for me. And true, all has been said, let's see who the town will believe in

 

 

 

Well, you people are talking a lot in this game.  I've read through page 10, and am still forming opinions.  Just wanted to give an update on my catching up and then I'll post actual thoughts when I get through the mountain of posts.

 

Welcome and have fun

I can't believe it's only day 2 on this game, it is a very fast paced game.

 

I'll start giving my interpretation of events as I understand them.

First going over what roleclaims have been made.  

KevinH says he is the vigilante, Euclid says he is the Dietician, Commander Shepard says he is the roleblocker, and Rafay claims he is the Roleblocker.

 

Second going over what targets people have said.  KevinH says he killed Martino who he says was a townie.  Euclid says he got a positive read on Lyner being a cannibal, I cannot for the life of me figure out who Commander Shepard says he roleblocked, and Rafay says he roleblocked Nerau.

 

The main focus of today is that Commander Shepard and Rafay have opposing statements, at least one of them is lying.  The possible scenarios I see:

1. Rafay is RB, this means Nerau is trustworthy and Commander Shepard is scum.

2. Commander Shepard is RB, this means Rafay is scum, and probably Nerau, since he has not come forward denying Rafay's claim.

3. One of them killed the RB and so this is why they feel comfortable claiming to be the RB, this is less likely because of the 3 people killed, KevinH says he killed Martino, innocent townie, and Kaz/RoT would probably have been forthcoming in day 1 if Rafay's claim was false.

 

I believe it would be most advantageous for the town to lynch Rafay, this would give us information on at least 2 additional people, Commander Shepard, and Nerau.  On the other side we have the claim by Euclid as the Dietician, he and Lyner are at odds and we can decide what to do with that tomorrow.  It will be interesting to see what happens during the night phase since we have two scum factions.

 

All in all, if we lynch Rafay we'll have 4 people who have roleclaimed or been proved innocent/guilty by others claiming on them,  KevinH, Commander Shepard as whatever

Rafay is not, Nerau as innocent/very probably scum depending on Rafay, and Euclid as Dietician.

 

There are a max of 3 deaths during the night, and it may be that Kaz/RoT/Martino was the Vigilante and KevinH got really lucky as SK to kill them and claimed the secondary kill as his own.  By the end of the night the number of kills will reveal a lot towards what happened the first night, but we will have at least one person left who we can have reasonable faith in even when people get night killed out of our list of confirmed, or quite trustworthy people.

 

I have other thoughts, but they aren't pertinent to today's vote, I say we lynch Rafay, but I want to hear what people think of my analysis before casting my vote.

I blocked Kazio

If Rafay is the Roleblocker, Nerau could still be scum if he was the non-killing goon or the serial killer with 1-shot roleblock immunity.

All we will really know is that he wasn't the killing goon, but that's some information at least.

From my persepective

 

A)If Rafay is the Serial Killer then for me the most likely people to be scum are KevinH + Lyner

However the flip to this is that Euclids and someone else could instead be the Mafia Goons or perhaps Euclids partner already died.

But perhaps Lyner's partner already died and KevinH is the vig.

 

 

B)If Rafay is a Mafia Goon then the person most likely to be the other goon is Nerau and the person most likely to be the SK is Lyner.

However Euclid could be lying and he could be the SK.

There again Lyner could be the other goon and Nerau could be an innocent person named to make Rafay seem more legit.

 

 

My night actions depend greatly on Rafay's true identity. 

I prefer outcome A as it is easier for me to call.

cause from my view Kevin is the only confirmed power role here

Confirmed? Please explain.

@Alt

 

If Rafay flips SK then his claim to have blocked Nerau is useless, i.e. null on Nerau, because it would just mean that Rafay hoped he could get away with that. Nothing more. Even if Rafay is a goon I wouldn't expect him to give us such an easy partner read. So, even then, still useless. Also, KevinH is right about what it means for Nerau if Rafay flips RB (which I don't expect at all). In that case Nerau could still be the SK or the non-killing goon.

 

Other than that your analysis seems pretty decent in summing up some of the possibilities. What's still lacking is an analysis of the claims for scum/town motivation. What would scum X gain from false claiming role Y? Was it in the best interest of town that PR X claimed when he did? Answering those questions (especially the latter) should help you assess the credibility of each of the claims. IMO that would lead you to the conclusion that you can't be so sure about KevinH and that Shepard and I are most likely telling the truth. That Rafay's claim is almost certainly false follows both from lack of a proper town motivation for it and from the credibility of Shepard's claim.

 

cause from my view Kevin is the only confirmed power role here

Confirmed? Please explain.

 

All the hints he has been throwing up since the first day? His roleclaim makes it confirmed for me, at least.

 

 

 

Also false claiming role's purposes:

1. To make the Townies believe in you, especially if you claim first

2. To lead the Townies in the direction you want, aka misdirection

Deadline will be extended until monday evening.

@mod: Can we have prods for Imran, Nerau and Rafay?

I am around. I dont have anything of value to add. Everything being discussed now have all been discussed in minute detail and been discussed over again. Unfortunately, I dont have any other way to effect the game except my vote, which I have done. I havent seen anything yet which could convince me of Rafay not being scum so my vote will stay on him. So lets see what the night phase gives us.