@KevinH

 

If I were scum, would I claim dietician to cast suspicion on Lyner and then go on to push for a lynch (Rafay) that was likely going to happen anyway? It wouldn't make sense because:

- Lyner had already attracted quite a lot of suspicion

- Noone suspected me except you and the confirmed scum Rafay

- I put a target on myself for the other scum faction

Now you've done it, Euclid

 

 

After pondering a bit I thought of 2 hypotheses, he is either a vanilla townie or a very confident mafia goon:

1. Good guy Euclid. Like I said, I think you've been pro-town since the first day, but only as a vanilla. Now maybe you're already convinced and fixed that me and Rafay(and probably Kevin) are the scums, and to save the only power role that hasn't been claimed(dietician) you lied. The merit: The hidden true dietician might escape getting NK-ed and give some useful insights in day 3, we still win even if you get lynched, after all. It also stimulates people to spill more informations so we can read them. If this theory is true then it is bad of me for revealing it, but it's too bad because I'm a townie and we can get into worse situation if another townie get lynched. Pretty wild idea I know, still, a possibility.

 

2. Mafia goon Euclid. You're getting more and more suspicious since Kevin started a possibility that you're a scum. Here we go: You have an advantage for being a newcomer so we can't read if you're trying to misdirect us(you've been trying to lead us since the first day) or being a good townie. You suspected me as scum with reason: too much fluff, sounds like someone which we all agree as a pro-townie #378. And #503 is weird, why did you do that if you decided(or perhaps changed mind) to roleclaim? Maybe you're having a meeting at the daytalk between mafia goons? Maybe you think that you already gained townies' trusts and you believe you can create a bandwagon, or maybe you want to see me claiming something so your friend can target me(or not-me if I claim vanilla) at night?

 

Possible case:

At first you thought you can direct the suspicion to me without role-claiming, then when Kevin started his hypotheses you are getting desperate then claimed you're the dietician. There are 2 reasons:

1. You killed the dietician so you can get away without anyone denying your claim.

2. You want to detect the real dietician and NK him, even by sacrificing yourself for the sake of your undetected partner.

 

Regarding partner, if you went on with the second reason then Shephard is probably a RB, because he showed up too much, and the next suspicious one on my list is Nerau, this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

 

 

I don't know about Shephard or Rafay, but what I know is you are not the SK, and probably not the dietician either

What do you guys think?

@KevinH

 

If I were scum, would I claim dietician to cast suspicion on Lyner and then go on to push for a lynch (Rafay) that was likely going to happen anyway? It wouldn't make sense because:

- Lyner had already attracted quite a lot of suspicion

- Noone suspected me except you and the confirmed scum Rafay

- I put a target on myself for the other scum faction

 

Oh sweet, pretty consistent with my current hypotheses

Damn KevinH, you're making me point out what you did.

Before I claimed

 

Quote from KevinH

 

 

Also, right before the deadline, I will post whom I intend to target.  Then if I'm night-killed, you'll know who pulled the trigger in one of the other deaths.

 

 

First post from KevinH after I claimed

 

 

I would like to see a vote about whom I should night-kill but I'm not sure I want to be bound by it.  I also want to withdraw my idea about posting whom I will kill just before deadline.

 

 

 

What does this mean?

Well let's say KevinH did kill the Vig and lets say Rafay is indeed the SK which he could well be.

Where would that leave KevinH after I claimed? On a tight edge, that's where.

If only one person dies tonight we will know it is highly likely there is only one faction capable of killing left.

If KevinH was a mafia goon then he backed himself into a corner of death because the SK will probably be lynched in his mind.

Two people dying or the SK blocking someone would not happen now in that situation, which could be problematic for KevinH.

Which could be why KevinH changed his mind when I claimed.

However I think there is a good chance KevinH is the vig and telling the truth.

It's just the situation looks badly on him much how the Rafay situation looks a bit bad on Nerau.

I am solely out to lynch Rafay as I think this is the make or break point for the town.

 

The answer at first seems obvious to me. We lynch the known scum, Lyner. Why didn't Euclid suggest that? He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure.

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:

- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.

- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.

In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

 

I know Rafay isn't that credible here but the 3rd possible option does exist.

It would be a bold move from me to do though, perhaps the 3rd option is unrealistic for scum to do.

Now you've done it, Euclid

 

 

After pondering a bit I thought of 2 hypotheses, he is either a vanilla townie or a very confident mafia goon:

1. Good guy Euclid. Like I said, I think you've been pro-town since the first day, but only as a vanilla. Now maybe you're already convinced and fixed that me and Rafay(and probably Kevin) are the scums, and to save the only power role that hasn't been claimed(dietician) you lied. The merit: The hidden true dietician might escape getting NK-ed and give some useful insights in day 3, we still win even if you get lynched, after all. It also stimulates people to spill more informations so we can read them. If this theory is true then it is bad of me for revealing it, but it's too bad because I'm a townie and we can get into worse situation if another townie get lynched. Pretty wild idea I know, still, a possibility.

This theory is crazy. A vanilla townie couldn't even know whether the dietician is still alive or not unless he is himself the dietician. Also, vanilla townies don't lie.

 

2. Mafia goon Euclid. You're getting more and more suspicious since Kevin started a possibility that you're a scum.

KevinH's theory of me and Shepard day talking doesn't make sense. I already explained why. I'm not surprised that he keeps pusing it though, nor that Rafay joined him in that, and now you as well. It just shows that the scum are getting desperate.

 

Here we go: You have an advantage for being a newcomer so we can't read if you're trying to misdirect us(you've been trying to lead us since the first day) or being a good townie.

I'm easier to read than you are. The reason is that I actually post stuff that can be read. You on the other hand just posted fluff mostly. Although since I started my case on you that has changed. You now post lies instead.

 

You suspected me as scum with reason: too much fluff, sounds like someone which we all agree as a pro-townie #378.

Yes, Kazio had already picked up on you posting fluff. What's your point? Also, we didn't all agree that Kazio was pro-town. Day 1 Kazio definitely caught his share of suspicion and even had a small wagon on him. Furthermore, I made a whole case against you. Your fluff posting was merely one piece of the of evidence.

 

And #503 is weird, why did you do that if you decided(or perhaps changed mind) to roleclaim?

I did that because Rafay and Imran had yet to respond to my case against you and I wanted them to do so before I claimed. I added the part about dropping your case to give them an incentive to read you as town in case they were your buddy (rather than distancing themselves). As it turned out Rafay defended you and Imran did not, which might be an indication that Rafay is your buddy.

 

Maybe you're having a meeting at the daytalk between mafia goons? Maybe you think that you already gained townies' trusts and you believe you can create a bandwagon,

I'm still pushing for a Rafay lynch who was likely to be lynched whether I claimed or not. So what bandwagon are you talking about that I would be trying to create?

 

or maybe you want to see me claiming something so your friend can target me(or not-me if I claim vanilla) at night?

Claim whatever you want. I don't care really. Unless you claim vig or scum I know that you must be lying. And if you claim vig then you or KevinH are lying (or both) and in that case KevinH's claim would still be more credible than yours.

 

Possible case:

At first you thought you can direct the suspicion to me without role-claiming, then when Kevin started his hypotheses you are getting desperate then claimed you're the dietician. There are 2 reasons:

1. You killed the dietician so you can get away without anyone denying your claim.

2. You want to detect the real dietician and NK him, even by sacrificing yourself for the sake of your undetected partner.

 

Regarding partner, if you went on with the second reason then Shephard is probably a RB, because he showed up too much, and the next suspicious one on my list is Nerau, this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

 

 

I don't know about Shephard or Rafay, but what I know is you are not the SK, and probably not the dietician either

What do you guys think?

Shepard, Rafay, Nerau, me... you sure have a lot of scum reads all of a sudden. Especially since you had almost none before, only Rafay really, and even him only since Day 2. I guess you've become desperate since my claim outed you as scum and have now resorted to the only play you have left: wildly throwing around suspicions.

@Shepard

 

The third option, i.e. where you lied and Rafay told the truth, is highly unlikely as it would mean that you as scum would have painted a huge target on yourself for the sole benefit of (possibly) getting the real RB killed and then as Rafay flipped RB everyone would know for sure that you are scum.

 

A much better play for you as scum would be to just stay under the radar, try to get us to lynch a townie and take care of Rafay during the night.

 

Therefore, if you are scum, you would only claim as you did if you had NKd the real RB, in which case Rafay is still lying.

 

I said it before. Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

Euclid's RC sounds very convenient. Interesting that he claims to have investigated Lyner and found him scum right when townies are debating on a short list of suspects. Anycase, I am not convinced about his RC yet. I will need to look through his Day 1 posts and see if they fit in with his posts or contradict.

 

@CS - You havent mentioned wether you think Euclid is really the Dietician or not? What do you think?

Euclid's RC sounds very convenient.

It does sound convenient. The reason is that it will likely win us the game.

Interesting that he claims to have investigated Lyner and found him scum right when townies are debating on a short list of suspects.

Perfect timing I'd say.

Anycase, I am not convinced about his RC yet. I will need to look through his Day 1 posts and see if they fit in with his posts or contradict.

My play has been pretty much town all around I believe. I did try to hide my PR of course. I targeted KevinH early on and then later Rafay, who since has become a confirmed scum. I'm interested to see your thoughts on my Day 1 posts though.

this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

The part that I've bolded is just another lie.

 

I didn't include Nerau because he had already responded. I asked him in #449 and in #468 he responded saying that my vote on you was justified and, as I read it anyway, he also said there that you posted BS.

 

 

Whatever Euclids role, I know sure and have known for some time he is definitely not partners with Rafay.

He was attacking Rafay way too much in Day 1 for me to consider him scum partners with Rafay.

Which would imply if he is lying then he would be the other scum faction that is not Rafay's scum faction.

I do consider the possibility of him being scum.

However such would imply that the Dietician is indeed dead.

We can not say for sure if the Dietician is dead or not.

 

It is similar to KevinH's claim except Euclid's claim has more depth to it.

I felt KevinH's claim came out of nowhere whereas you could see why Eulcid would suspect Lyner if he was the dietician.

And since Euclid went after Lyner from almost the get go of this Day I think adds points as to why he could indeed be the dietician.

I see no particularly other reason to go after Lyner other than the dietician investigating him during the night for justified reasons.

Initially I thought Lyner was the dietician because of his sudden change of tune towards Rafay.

I felt he investigated either me or Rafay but didn't want to spell it out.

However I think I gave up on that lead since he didn't vote for Rafay.

 

 

I think KevinH and Euclid both have good claims but not fully provable claims, perhaps Euclid's a bit more as I get a better judgement on him.

I did say earlier it would be awful if the vig, dietician and the roleblocker were all known on Day 2.

I don't think it is awful right now, but I am slightly worried.

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:

- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.

- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.

In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

 

"If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB"

Isn't it possible that Rafay is the Roleblocker and Shepard is lying?

 

It might be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

 

On the other hand, if Lyner is a Cannibal, then he must be scum.

(Assuming one believes that I'm the Vigilante)

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.

 

Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.

 

If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.

 

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.

 

If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)

If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.

 

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

 

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.

 

Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.

 

If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.

 

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.

 

If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)

If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.

 

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

 

The problem with that approach is if we lynch a scum the confirmed townie immediately is dead (dead scum's partner will hit him). We have no docs so no protection can be given. We have a RB but if we are not sure who the 2nd scum is RB cant neutralise that threat as well. Finally we have the wildcard SK who can kill anyone he wants without dying or being blocked for one more night. So, we should really be taking action that has a god probability of identifying the SK and lynching him. Is Rafay the likely SK or one of the mafia goons? is Lyner one of the goons or is it possible that he is the SK? If Rafay and Lyner are the two goons who is the most likely SK? If one of these two have a good probability of being the SK instead of one of the goons we should lynch him. And we should plan the night with our power roles such that the SK can be identified if Rafay and Lyner are goons and neither is the SK.

"If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB"

Isn't it possible that Rafay is the Roleblocker and Shepard is lying?

 

It might be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

Sure it's possible. It requires that Shepard is a complete idiot though. It's so unlikely that I feel quite comfortable calling Rafay a confirmed scum.

 

On the other hand, if Lyner is a Cannibal, then he must be scum.

(Assuming one believes that I'm the Vigilante)

Similarly it's possible that Lyner is the vig. It requires that you are a complete idiot though. It's so unlikely that I feel quite comfortable calling Lyner a confirmed scum.

 

The difference here is that for the Rafay case it should be clear to anyone that he is scum, while for the Lyner case it depends on how much faith you put in my claim. From my perspective they are both confirmed scum. For anyone else there is the possibility that I am a scum that killed the dietician and then false claimed to implicate Lyner. However, I can't see why a scum that hasn't been under any suspicion worth mentioning would make himself a NK target by making such a false claim just to make Lyner look bad. And although I appreciate the effort of some to try and come up with such a reason, they failed to do so in even a remotely convincing way in my opinion.

 

 

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.

 

Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.

 

If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.

 

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.

 

If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)

If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.

 

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

Funny how you ignore the scenario where both Shepard and Rafay are lying. There is the possibility that Shepard is a scum that killed the RB and then false claimed to implicate Rafay. However, I can't see why a scum that hasn't been under any suspicion worth mentioning would make himself a NK target by making such a false claim just to make Rafay look bad. And although I appreciate the effort of some to try and come up with such a reason, they failed to do so in even a remotely convincing way in my opinion.

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.

If you are a goon then since Rafay and Lyner are confirmed scum there cannot be a scum that is dead already.

 

If you are the SK then you have killed the vig. The goons would not have killed one of their own and can not have killed the SK so they also killed a townie. The only way a scum could be already dead is if the real vig NKd a goon, which was a 2 in 10 chance.

 

If you are the vig then you have killed a townie. The goons would not have killed one of their own and can not have killed the SK so they also killed a townie. The only way a scum could already be dead is if the SK NKd a goon, which was a 2 in 10 shot at.

 

Given the above it is best to assume that we currently have 5 townies and all 3 scum alive. If we lynch a VT today and two more townies get killed tonight we'd be going into Day 3 with at most 5 alive 3 of which would be scum. We really need to lynch a scum today, preferably the SK.

 

This theory is crazy. A vanilla townie couldn't even know whether the

dietician is still alive or not unless he is himself the dietician.

Also, vanilla townies don't lie.

 

That's why it is called a theory :|

 

 

 

 

KevinH's theory of me and Shepard day talking doesn't make sense. I

already explained why. I'm not surprised that he keeps pusing it though,

nor that Rafay joined him in that, and now you as well. It just shows

that the scum are getting desperate.

 

 

I'm easier to read than you are. The reason is that I actually post

stuff that can be read. You on the other hand just posted fluff mostly.

Although since I started my case on you that has changed. You now post

lies instead.

 

 

 

Shepard, Rafay, Nerau, me... you sure have a lot of scum reads all of a

sudden. Especially since you had almost none before, only Rafay really,

and even him only since Day 2. I guess you've become desperate since my

claim outed you as scum and have now resorted to the only play you have

left: wildly throwing around suspicions.

 

I'm just providing another possibility, and what can I do with short statements to prove my innocence? Like it or not I have to do it

 

this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

The part that I've bolded is just another lie.

 

I didn't include Nerau because he had already responded. I asked him in #449 and in #468 he responded saying that my vote on you was justified and, as I read it anyway, he also said there that you posted BS.

 

 

 

Justified. not "True, I agree with you, he's suspicious"

 

Though this is not that important

Assuming that Lyner is scum, the scenarios below show that if we lynch Rafay today and he flips scum the town will definitely still have a chance to win the game tomorrow. Probably a good chance even, especially if he flips SK. Even in the unlikely event that Rafay flips RB all hope would not yet be lost.
 
Since we cannot have no lynch MYLO is effectively LYLO. I make the distinction because with "MYLO or better" it is more likely that we are allowed one more mislynch than with "LYLO or better".

---

Assumptions:
- Lyner is scum
- Day 2 lynch is Rafay
- If the vig is still alive it must be KevinH.
- all 3 scum are still alive (if not we win by lynching Lyner Day 3 and, in the unlikely case that Rafay flips RB, Shepard Day 4)
 
 
Rafay flips SK
Night 2 actions:
- vig NKs Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)
- RB blocks anyone but KevinH

Possible outcomes:

• Lyner survives Night 2 -> vig didn't target Lyner -> KevinH and Lyner are goons. Lynch one Day 3 and the other Day 4.
   
• Lyner is the only Night 2 kill -> Day 3 starts with 6 alive one of which is a goon.
   
• There are 2 Night 2 kills -> the vig must have been alive -> Lyner was NKd -> Day 3 starts with 5 alive one of which is a goon.

 

 

Rafay flips goon
Night 2 actions:
- vig NK Lyner (if he doesn't KevinH is scum)
- RB blocks anyone but KevinH

Possible outcomes:

• Lyner survives Night 2. There can not have been 3 NKs because of the following contradiction: 3 NKs -> vig was still alive -> vig targeted Lyner, but Lyner survived -> 2 NKs at most. Therefore in this case Day 3 starts with at least 5 alive at most 2 of which are scum and town can get a majority for the Day 3 lynching of Lyner.
  * Lyner flips goon -> KevinH did not target Lyner -> KevinH is the SK -> Lynch KevinH Day 4.
  * Lyner flips SK -> Day 4 starts with at least 3 alive one of which is the goon, i.e. LYLO or better.
   
• Lyner is killed in Night 2 -> Day 3 starts with at least 4 alive one of which is the SK, i.e. MYLO or better.

 

 

Rafay flips RB
Shepard and Lyner are scum but the third scum is still unknown.
 
Night 2 action:
- vig Nks Lyner or Shepard whomever he thinks is least likely the SK.

Possible outcomes:

• Both Lyner and Shepard are killed in Night 2 -> Day 3 starts with at least 4 alive at most 1 of which is scum, i.e. MYLO or better.
   
• There is only 1 Night 2 kill and it is Lyner or Shepard -> lynch the other Day 3. If the vig is still alive he should kill his prime suspect Night 3. If he kills the scum we win, otherwise Day 4 starts with 3 or 4 alive one of which is scum, i.e. LYLO or MYLO. If the vig is dead Day 4 starts with 4 alive one of which is scum, i.e. MYLO.
   
• There are 2 Night 2 kills and one of them is Lyner or Shepard -> Day 3 starts with 5 alive one of which is the SK and at most one of which is a goon so the town can get a majority for the Day 3 lynching of Lyner or Shepard (whomever survived Night 2). If the unknown scum happened to be killed in Night 2 we win, otherwise Day 4 for starts with at least 3 alive one of which is scum, i.e. LYLO or better.
   
• There are 3 Night 2 kills -> the vig must have been alive and killed a goon (Lyner or Shepard) -> Day 3 starts with 4 alive one of which is the SK and possibly one of which is a goon. If one of the 3NKs is the unknown scum we are at MYLO, otherwise we are screwed unless we lynch the SK Day 3 and the vig survived Night 2 to kill the goon Night 3.
   
• Both Lyner and Shepard survive Night 2 -> prospects of town winning look bad, but we can still win if we are lucky with the number of Night 2 kills (low), the unknown scum (NKd) and/or the PR night actions.

@mod: We really need Karl replaced, otherwise town may lose just because he doesn't vote due to his inactivity.

I have been trying. It is not however in my power to make new players appear from thin air.

@mod: What about killgor? I know it's unusual but since we all already know that he was VT in his previous role... he wouldn't know anything a normal replacement wouldn't.

He has access to the thread for dead people. Therefore he does have knowledge that would effect his game play.