The way I see it ...
 
Canibal Mafia Goons will try to kill every night.
Canibal Serial Killer will try to kill every night.
 
When they kill, we won't know which roles they got unless the town gets lucky and they kill each other.
 
Town Dietician will investigate and might find a Canibal.  If he finds a Canibal, it has a 1 in 4 chance of being the Vigilante.
 
Town Roleblocker should try to roleblock every night because at best he prevents the scum from killing a townie and at worst he prevents the Dietician from making an investigation.
 
Town Canibal Vigilante is an interesting situation.  Odds are that he will hit a townie if he night-kills but but maybe he can get lucky at hit scum.  It's a bit analygous to the town needing to get lucky with a lynch. However, there is not the added benefit of the voting patterns.  I'm inclined to think his best play would be to not kill the first night because of the additional chance that he might get the Dietician or Roleblocker which would deprive the town of those chances for "luck".  On later nights, the odds are greater that he'll hit scum and if he does hit scum, he'll get their larder and some information with that.
 
As with other games, there will be a conundrum for the Dietician, Roleblocker, and Vigilante about whether to reveal the information that they know.  If they share the information, they become a target for the night-kills.

I just realized that I misspelled Cannibal a bunch of times in my last post.

 

One possible scenario:

 

Start:

9 Townies (T), 2 Cannibal Mafia Goons (CMG), 1 Cannibal Serial Killer (CSK)

 

Day 1: Townie is lynched

8T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 1: 2 Townies are killed (Vigilante doesn't kill)

6T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Day 2: Townie is lynched

5T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 2: 2 Townies, 1 CMG are killed

3T, 1CMG, 1CSK

 

Day 3: Townie is lynched

2T, 1CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 3: Hope that the 2 remaining scum kill each other.

 

 

We can get lucky if the scum kill each other off earlier or if we happen to get a scum in a lynch.

I don't like your scenario... you only lynch townies.

it's the worse case scenario situation. and it is a definite possibility. but there are a lot more possibilities where this one comes from.

I would rather see the vigilante kill someone come night 1. At least we know he'll try to kill scum. He might get lucky. Our job is to scum hunt today as best we can so as to give him the best possible educated guess. Even if he is unlucky and kills a townie then he can still analyze who was voting for that townie, what that townie said etc. Useful info for the town if you ask me. KevinH is arguing for no vigilante kill just as he usually argues for no lynch.

Thing is if was determined by luck the mafia can't lose as the odds are stacked for there favor

 

So need to spend the most time determining who is mafia and not go for quick stuff.

Well I'm here thanks for the vote Kev.....

 

I don't think Kev does look scummy but can't say same 4 Kaz. He just jumped on Kev despite him already having 3 votes on him in a random scenario.

 

So my vote random at first becomes the 1st official scum hunt vote!!!

It's always gonna be determined by luck. All we can do is improve our odds.

 

Time is on the scum's side. They will most likely kill 2 of us each night. Sitting idly until we are certain is a sure way to lose. Acting on a gut feeling is better than not acting at all. If the vigilante does not kill tonight then tomorrow we might still be 3 townies down (2 NK + unlucky lynch) and scum would have a third of the vote on day 2. On the other hand no scum can vote about the vigilante kill. It's the only 100% town motivated kill we have.

 

If we are unluckily with our day 1 lynch and the vigilante kills completely randomly he already has a 3 in 10 = 30% chance to hit scum. He does not kill randomly though. Suppose that from our day 1 discussion and lynch he can read 2 of us as most likely town. That would already increase his odds to 3 in 8 = 38%. Factoring in his reads of scum tells I would easily estimate his odds near 50/50. The vigilante is simply our best chance to get ahead and we cannot afford to waste it. There is
no telling that he will get another shot in night 2 as he might be killed before then.

 

I would also like to note that KevinH's no vigilante scenario has really bad odds for the town in the final night. The two remaining killers would have to target each other for a town win. Those odds are 1 in 9 (11%) for the town. And that doesn't even take into account that KevinH completely ignored the SK immunity in his analysis. So actual odds are even worse.

That darn immunity.  Let's hope we lynch the Serial Killer because the mafia would have to kill him twice!

 

Here's another idea.  We can all "suggest" to the Vigilante who he should kill.  If he chooses to follow the most popular suggestion, we could use it as second "voting record".  That way we can get some information on suggesting patterns just like voting patterns.

 

 

 

Here's my idea. We all do our best to get as much information out off Day 1 and then let the Vigilante make up his own mind. I don't want no scum voting about the Vigilante kill.
 

On another note... I'm done with the KevinH wagon. We have seen his defense. We have seen who jumped on the wagon and who didn't... and why. I don't think we're gonna get any more useful info from this wagon at this point. I still consider KevinH suspect though. I might very well move my vote back to him before the end of the day. However, for now...
 
Unvote
Vote Rafay

 

For saying that Kaziocore jumped on the KevinH wagon when there were already 3 votes on it (it was just me and Xarastier at that point). Kaziocore seems to me to have actually been doing some scum hunting. Now that Rafay's vote is no longer random his voting for Kaziocore seems scummy.

 

Nobody is quick hammering KevinH. That would be extremely scummy. His wagon is not random though. In fact the only three players that are not voting random are all on his wagon. KevinH stands out on several issues and his defense has not helped his case.

 

However there are 3 scum so it would be stupid to focus solely on KevinH. You think he is town. Okay. Care to explain? More importantly, who do you think is scum? Make a case, start a wagon, you might convince me. Currently you are just enjoying the show. Those on the KevinH case have stuck their neck out trying to get us beyond RVS. IMO it is up to someone else to start a second wagon.

I wasn't really thinking that anyone was quick hammering.  I was saying that it worried me to see us over halfway to a lynch so early in the day.  I saw KevinH's defenses as pretty solid and I could be wrong as to his being innocent, but he seems to be actively scum hunting and thinking down the road as to what the town situation will be in a couple days.  I'm actually sticking to my random vote for now until I see something that sticks out.  The reasons for this is that Xarastier has kept his vote on the KevinH bandwagon and hasn't contributed too much to the discussion yet.

Votecount 1.02

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (1) - Rafay,

Nerau (1) - Killgor,

killgor (1) - Lyner,

KevinH (3) - Xarastier, Kaziocore, Commander Shepard,

Martino (0) -

Rafay (3) - Nerau, KevinH, Euclid of Alexandria,

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (1) - Imran Ehsan

Xarastier (1) - reign of terror,

 

Not voting (1) - Martino,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

KevinH and Rafay are currently tied for wagon leader at L-4

Deadline is Monday, May 6th, 2013 @ 23:20 PST

Someone mentioned something about it earlier.

 

The Town Dietician will probably not find a cannibal and if he does it may the vigilante.

But potentially revealing a cannibal which may slow down the death rate of townies seems like the reasonable thing to do ASAP but it's paints a red target on the head of the Dietician if he does reveal.

He could of course die with this information if not revealed.

If the Dietician never discloses this information it still benefits the town as the Dietician will not only vote but also argue accordingly during the day. Tbh, as only the Dietician knows what information he has, he is also the only one that can judge whether or not (and when) it is worthwhile to share it with the town. A similar argument holds for the Vigilante as the information he gathers from his kills will not be disclosed to the town either, but it will be disclosed to the scum if he gets killed by them. IMO we just have to trust our power roles to do what's in our best interest.

For future notice, I will specify who will be lynched in the event of a tie, if one exists, starting 4 days prior to the deadline. 

If the Dietician finds a Cannibal, it would be best to not reveal it outright but make strong accusations for benign reasons, much like Euclid was doing to me.  Of course on Day 1, since nobody knows nothin', there's no point in making strong claims.  However, in later days when somebody is pushing hard to lynch based on weak evidence, that can mean there is more to it than is in plain sight.

 

The Vigilante will only know information about dead players, so that information isn't likely to be critical to any future lynch.  I could imagine a situation where he might have information to disprove a roleclaim, but revealing that woiuld put a target on his back that wouldn't be wise,

Here's another idea.  We can all "suggest" to the Vigilante who he should kill.

 

Here's my idea. We all do our best to get as much information out off Day 1 and then let the Vigilante make up his own mind. I don't want no scum voting about the Vigilante kill.

That's the whole point of the exercise. If the scum are trying to influence the kill toward a townie, then we might able to see that, even if it's a day or more later. If the Vigilante makes a bad guess, then it's just a bad guess (with a townie dying in vain).

 

For what it's worth, I "suggest" that the Vigilante not kill tonight. One may think that 30% chance of hitting scum is good, but I think that 70% chance of hitting townie is bad.

Town Canibal Vigilante is an interesting situation.  Odds are that he will hit a townie if he night-kills but but maybe he can get lucky at hit scum.  It's a bit analygous to the town needing to get lucky with a lynch. However, there is not the added benefit of the voting patterns.  I'm inclined to think his best play would be to not kill the first night because of the additional chance that he might get the Dietician or Roleblocker which would deprive the town of those chances for "luck".  On later nights, the odds are greater that he'll hit scum and if he does hit scum, he'll get their larder and some information with that.

I think the best course of action of the vig is to night kill the lurkers.

They're disadvantageous to the town especially if they are scum.

Besides if you're a PR you shouldn't lurk and act scummy as

it will greatly diminish their credibility when it's their time to roleclaim.

Remember the cannibals will hide the alignment and role of their

victims. So that means the mafia can kill the PRs and pretend that

they are them.

 

Well I'm here thanks for the vote Kev.....

 

I don't think Kev does look scummy but can't say same 4 Kaz. He just jumped on Kev despite him already having 3 votes on him in a random scenario.

 

So my vote random at first becomes the 1st official scum hunt vote!!!

lol that's a terrible scum tell if you believe the third person to vote

someone is automatically scum. It's called pressure by the way.

 

Here's another idea.  We can all "suggest" to the Vigilante who he should kill.  If he chooses to follow the most popular suggestion, we could use it as second "voting record".  That way we can get some information on suggesting patterns just like voting patterns.

I'm agreeing with Euclid. No one should control the decision of the vigilante.

We have two mafias and one serial killer. They could also influence the

choice of the vigilante. We should make the vig's night action unpredictable

for the scum.

 

Of course on Day 1, since nobody knows nothin', there's no point in making strong claims.  However, in later days when somebody is pushing hard to lynch based on weak evidence, that can mean there is more to it than is in plain sight.

Actually " nobody knows nothin' " is false because the mafia knows who they are and they know who to kill.

Similarly the serial killer knows he have to kill everyone. That's why we need to scum hunt for these people

because they can slip for knowing more. People pointing out that there is something suspicious of your

actions shouldn't be seen as anti-town because in that way, we could have a glimpse of your alignment.

That's the whole point of the exercise. If the scum are trying to influence the kill toward a townie, then we might able to see that, even if it's a day or more later. If the Vigilante makes a bad guess, then it's just a bad guess (with a townie dying in vain).

How would you differentiate town making a mistake or mafia deliberately influencing to target a town?

People with random votes should unvote if they don't believe their first vote is their top suspect. The random voting stage is over.

And

 

Vote: Rafay

 

Rafay needs to talk more about his reads and say his reason why he thinks I'm scummy.

Post Count:

9 Euclid of Alexandria

8 Kaziocore

6 KevinH

3 killgor

3 Commander Shepard

3 Lyner

2 reign of terror

2 Nerau

2 Imran Ehsan

2 Xarastier

1 Rafay

0 Martino

 

Unvote: Martino

Vote: Rafay

 

Prompting for action!

I'd suggest instead of counting directly the post count of each player,

you would only count a post if it's not a fluff post. It would improve this

though I'd still say this is an inaccurate way to scum hunt.

Since only two of the three scum know about each other, neither voting patterns nor suggestion patterns are likely to reveal much.  The goons won't vote for each other but that won't be hard to disguise.

 

Someone's going to get lynched and then most likely at least two more will die in the night.  After that happens, what information will we have?

Voting patterns do give as an insight.

For example: if a wagon on a town did not grow large, it's likely because scum is on it

if a wagon on an unflipped player is made largely of town but not grow larger, it's likely it's a scum wagon

 

You're downplaying the information we could get there.

We also have interactions during the day.

Scum will pretend that they are scum hunting since

they already know they are mafia and everyone is their enemies.

 

We should not stop the vigilante if he wants to use their night kill.

I think it would even be beneficial if they use it (probably on lurkers,

and people that are anti-town to prevent town in mislynching them

on more important days like in LYLO or MYLO)

My stance on Day 1 action has always been this: lynch the inactives.

 

Day 1: We have no investigation results, we have no voting records and normally we dont have much to argue over also as no one knows nothing. New players and normal townies post a lot and inevitably make scummy statements or contradictory ones throwing the limelight on them. If there is a lynch, they will get lynched and the town loses because (1) they were town and (2) they were active town. If there is a Day 1 lynch the probability of a scum getting lynched is very low (1/4 = 25%).

 

So we should lynch and we should not base our lynch on who said what but on who is doing nothing => the inactives/ low profilers. Also agree with Kazio that "low profilers" should not be judged based on post count also. Random one line posts with no content and no attempt at scum hunt or how to move forward is not helping the town.

 

This is only for Day 1 though. It should not be used from Day 2 forwards as scum may be vocal and making a lot of posts. On Day 1, we should lynch the one who is making the least contribution.

 

Based on the above:

 

Unvote

 

Vote: Martino

 

He has yet to make a post. If he comes by later and posts, I will change my vote to the next guy who is making the least contribution.