446 replies to this topic

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 1.01

Alternate_Tree (1) - Euclid of Alexandria
Chaplain of death (1) - Nerau
Commander Shepard (0) -
d3mon (0) -
DarkIceDragon (1) - Commander Shepard
Euclid of Alexandria (1) - Lyner
Imran Ehsan (1) - Alternate_Tree
iSocialism (1) - killgor
KevinH (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (1) - Chaplain of death
Nerau (1) - d3mon
reign of terror (0) -

No Lynch (1) - KevinH

Not Voting (4) - DarkIceDragon, Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, reign of terror

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Alternate_Tree, Chaplain of death, DarkIceDragon, Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan, iSocialism, Lyner, and Nerau are the current wagon leaders at L-6
Deadline is Tuesday, June 18th, 2013 @ 03:06 EDT

I will be posting links to the votecounts in the first page for everyone's convenience

[Imran Ehsan]

Vote: kevinH

 

for not being blood thirsty.

[Commander Shepard]

Voting no lynch is the superior option on Day 1.

If it is available I would surely use it, however every other day there should be a lynch because there is a greater chance of getting the Mafia.

[killgor]

i may be off the radar on monday and probably on tuesday. just letting you guys know ahead of time. also, not much happened until now so maybe i don't even have to announce this.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Assuming that a townie gets killed in the night...

No lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Lynch 1 scum: 3/12 = 0.25
Lynch 0 scum: 9/12 = 0.75
Expected number of dead scum = 0.25
Expected number of dead townies = 1.75


Lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Lynch 2 scum: 3/13 * 2/11 = 0.042
Lynch 1 scum: 3/13 * 9/11 + 10/13 * 3/11 = 0.399
Lynch 0 scum: 10/13 * 8/11 = 0.559
Expected number of dead scum = 2*0.042 + 1*0.399 = 0.483
Expected number of dead townies = 1*0.042 + 2*0.399 + 3*0.559 = 2.517


Conclusion
By not lynching Day 1 the expected number of dead scum drops by (0.483-.25)/0.483*100 = 48.2% while the expected number of dead townies only drops by (2.517-1.75)/2.517*100 = 30.5%. That's just stupid. Can we please drop the no lynch discussion now?

[iSocialism]

Vote: KevinH

No one has a last name "H" unless they're hiding something.

[Commander Shepard]

Assuming that a townie gets killed in the night...

No lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Lynch 1 scum: 3/12 = 0.25
Lynch 0 scum: 9/12 = 0.75
Expected number of dead scum = 0.25
Expected number of dead townies = 1.75


Lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Lynch 2 scum: 3/13 * 2/11 = 0.042
Lynch 1 scum: 3/13 * 9/11 + 10/13 * 3/11 = 0.399
Lynch 0 scum: 10/13 * 8/11 = 0.559
Expected number of dead scum = 2*0.042 + 1*0.399 = 0.483
Expected number of dead townies = 1*0.042 + 2*0.399 + 3*0.559 = 2.517


Conclusion
By not lynching Day 1 the expected number of dead scum drops by (0.483-.25)/0.483*100 = 48.2% while the expected number of dead townies only drops by (2.517-1.75)/2.517*100 = 30.5%. That's just stupid. Can we please drop the no lynch discussion now?

 

 

You're overlooking possible events such as having an extra day that could decide the game in the favor of the town by not lynching.

I admit there is right times for townies to die or to play a game of random chance, but to play it at the beginning is crude imo.

You close more doors than you open, I can only suggest we don't close doors we could later depend on.

I see random lynching as desperate and not suitable for Day 1 and yes it is very desperate, it is used as something against the town, if it wasn't then there would be no need to force it.

I will be removing my vote whenever and will wait to see patterns in the players.

[killgor]

having extra days is pointless without information. in some cases it's actually detrimental. for example, if during the last day there are 4 people alive and one of them is scum, chances to lynch the scum are lower than if there were 3 scum.

 

anyway, we don't know what power roles we have. we probably have a innocent childe but the rest of the roles are up to grab. which reminds me, if there is a vig in there, he may want to do a nk tonight just to let us know some extra info. (don't pick me though, i already died early during the last few games i was a townie ) then again, he only has 2 shots so he might want to stay hidden for now.

[Commander Shepard]

Why are you saying it is pointless without information, why would we not have information.

We gather information throughout the game until the last day.

25% of the players would be scum if there were 4 players left in that situation, currently it is a 23% chance to kill scum.

The difference between the two situations is that it would be easier to eliminate players from being scum and narrow down the list on the last day.

[Commander Shepard]

Or I mean 23% are scum.

[killgor]

information gathering comes from voting. so vote.

[Commander Shepard]

You're preaching to the choir.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Our odds are better when there are fewer alive. There are fewer alive if we lynch someone. Therefore lynching someone improves our odds. Simple logic.

If it turns out that we need an extra day we can no lynch on a later day.

[Commander Shepard]

Our odds are better when there are fewer alive. There are fewer alive if we lynch someone. Therefore lynching someone improves our odds. Simple logic.

If it turns out that we need an extra day we can no lynch on a later day.

 

We may need that extra day and we may need to lynch suspects every other day.

We would need to extend it longer over time and while narrowing the list down then while improving our odds

 

I guess you could say it is breaking the ice, however I can not decide if that is truly better for the town in long run or not since I have a bias view of it.

But hey I may just use my vote to pile on pressure during Day 1.

[killgor]

well then, why are we even having this day? let's just draw straws if we're townies before the day begins and one of us can get to skip this game. then the power roles can choose who to scan completely at random cause without voting they can't even make educated choices and let's see how it turns out. then again euclid, you seem to like numbers. can you find the proportion of games won when voting on the first day and compare it to the proportion of games won when not voting on the 1st day?

 

then again, why bother... i still don't plan to put all my hopes in someone who might not exist or who might get nicked before having the chance to reveal anything.

[KevinH]

Can we please drop the no lynch discussion now?

 

I can't let it slide.

 

No lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Expected number of dead townies = 1.75

Lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Expected number of dead townies = 1*0.042 + 2*0.399 + 3*0.559 = 2.517

 

Only the scum would want more dead townies after 2 days.

Unvote.
Vote: Euclid of Alexandria

[Euclid of Alexandria]

No lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Expected number of dead scum = 0.25

Lynch Day 1 + NK + lynch Day 2
Expected number of dead scum = 2*0.042 + 1*0.399 = 0.483

Only the scum would want less dead goons after 2 days

FoS: KevinH

[Commander Shepard]

Only the scum would start to make a scene out of this.

 

FoS: KevinH and Euclid

 

 

well then, why are we even having this day? let's just draw straws if we're townies before the day begins and one of us can get to skip this game. then the power roles can choose who to scan completely at random cause without voting they can't even make educated choices and let's see how it turns out. then again euclid, you seem to like numbers. can you find the proportion of games won when voting on the first day and compare it to the proportion of games won when not voting on the 1st day?

 

Voting and lynching are two very different things.

We're having this day so we can gather info mainly by using our vote, that doesn't mean we're going to lynch someone.

[KevinH]

Post count so far

8 Commander Shepard
6 killgor
5 Euclid of Alexandria
3 Chaplain of death
3 KevinH
2 Lyner
1 Alternate_Tree
1 d3mon
1 DarkIceDragon
1 Imran Ehsan
1 iSocialism
1 Nerau
0 reign of terror

Unvote.
Vote: Reign of Terror

[Chaplain of death]

If you dont intend to lynch when you vote (other than during rvs) than your vote doesn't gather any information. Voting record information is only helpful if we find out what role the lynchee possessed.