1125 replies to this topic

[Yates]

It is very important that you understand this: Iron Helix is a mod confirmed Townie. His role is innocent child. There is 0% chance Iron Helix is scum or SK.

[iSocialism]

 

But now that you brought it back up and I have had my fun with you. I'll answer your question.... P.S. not a false start

Awesome. That's all I can ask. Please proceed with your line of questioning.

 

If you were to referring to me asking Lyner how he slept. That was my question, pretty much, I do not admit to knowing to Lyner whereabouts, more of just a crack at getting him to say something. He's always in the background that is why I choose him to simply put on the spot.

[iSocialism]

It is very important that you understand this: Iron Helix is a mod confirmed Townie. His role is innocent child. There is 0% chance Iron Helix is scum or SK.

Okay, still doesn't change my thinking, 3 people of the wagon 1/3 is likely scum, people on the wagon 3/7 likely scum/sk. Minus you on the wagon 3/6 minus Theo 3/5, and minus if you may EM 3/4. The four being; COD, Lyner, Imran, and kilgor... in the order of voting. In all honestly I would be for COD, his silence scares me, but as I said before let take some time.

[Yates]

If you were to referring to me asking Lyner how he slept. That was my question, pretty much, I do not admit to knowing to Lyner whereabouts, more of just a crack at getting him to say something. He's always in the background that is why I choose him to simply put on the spot.

Thank you for clearing that up.

In addition to the point I made above about Iron Helix being 100% confirmed Town, there's something else I need to make sure you understand. While I think we all agree that there is scum ON the wagon, we also have a lot of claims out there. Those of EM and Theo remain to be proven. While I do not advocate killing at least Theo tonight, there's a good chance one of those two are scum as well. However, we will have night actions to resolve that. Plus they have claims on the table. Thus, they know that anything they say or do that does not fit with their claim will expose them as frauds. THIS is why I am advocating lynching off the wagon. I agree that there is no certainty that the neighborizer is Town. However, there's no certainty that only ONE scum is off the wagon. This is why it has come down to you or Robert.

Is there anything you can say or do to prove you should live over Robert? Is there any way you can prove you are Town?

[Yates]

Get on in here, Montosh. I'm looking forward towards your first content post! Also, while you are here, would you please do me a solid and verify that your predecessor neighborized me? Thanks!

[iSocialism]

 

If you were to referring to me asking Lyner how he slept. That was my question, pretty much, I do not admit to knowing to Lyner whereabouts, more of just a crack at getting him to say something. He's always in the background that is why I choose him to simply put on the spot.

Thank you for clearing that up.

In addition to the point I made above about Iron Helix being 100% confirmed Town, there's something else I need to make sure you understand. While I think we all agree that there is scum ON the wagon, we also have a lot of claims out there. Those of EM and Theo remain to be proven. While I do not advocate killing at least Theo tonight, there's a good chance one of those two are scum as well. However, we will have night actions to resolve that. Plus they have claims on the table. Thus, they know that anything they say or do that does not fit with their claim will expose them as frauds. THIS is why I am advocating lynching off the wagon. I agree that there is no certainty that the neighborizer is Town. However, there's no certainty that only ONE scum is off the wagon. This is why it has come down to you or Robert.

Is there anything you can say or do to prove you should live over Robert? Is there any way you can prove you are Town?

 

There is 3 off the wagon easier to night action to see who they are, while 7 on the wagon to night action, I know that no one besides Helix is confirmed town. but 3/7  or 1/3. 4/11 are bad 7/11 are good. after this day which a lynch will most likely happen that would be either 4/10 bad or 3/10 bad or 7/10 good are 6/10 good. After the night 4/8 bad or 3/8bad and 5/10 good or 6/8 good. After the night is more likely to 4/8 are bad with 4/8 good. What will happen after that. The only thing I can say if you have to choose someone off the wagon out of Rob and I, choose Rob... though he can say the opposite about me. that would be better.

There is nothing I can do besides role claim to help my case, and like everyone else I prefer not to especially this early in the game.

[Lyner]

Funcfact: My name is spelled like "Liner"

 

 

Mafia and SK both picked CS who supports lynching the inactives, this leads me to the thought that both wants to make the inactives/lurkers more suspicious, no?

 

 

And really, iSoc? I thought I was more vocal in this game since the day 1, at least more vocal than you

[Lyner]

Nah not necessarily both, but at least one sidde

[Yates]

Nah not necessarily both, but at least one sidde

What do you think of my proposal to lynch off the wagon? Any thoughts? Anyone you are leaning towards? If so, why?

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 2.12

Chaplain of death (0) - 
Electric Mango (0) -
Imran Ehsan (2) - Lyner, Iron Helix
Iron Helix (0) -
iSocialism (1) - Electric Mango
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -
Montosh (0) -
Robert2424 (0) -
Theophilos (1) - Imran Ehsan
Yates (1) - Theophilos
 
Not Voting (6) - Chaplain of death, iSocialism, killgor, Montosh, Robert2424, Yates
 
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Imran Ehsan is the current wagon leader at L-4
Deadline is Monday, December 16th, 2013 @ 12:45 EDT

4 days and 12 hours before deadline

[Iron Helix]

I'm inclined to agree with iSoc that the odds are going to be better lynching someone on the wagon rather than someone off.  The other thing to consider is who was lynched, ie Kevin.  I think the general consensus here is he is a better than average player.  Since it's known now that he was town, I would hypothesize that scum would want to see him removed from the pool of players.

 

3/4 scum on the bandwagon sounds about right.

[Imran Ehsan]

Interesting that Theo has no response to my vote on him. So I see no reason to move my vote to anyone else. We need to lynch today or we go into the night and probably start the next day with two less townies. Theo, CoD, Lyner, Robert and iSocialism are all on my blacklist. I am pretty sure we will have a high probability of hitting scum/Sk lynching one of the 5. So if people are still reluctant to take out Theo I will support a lynch on one of the other 4.

[Yates]

I'm inclined to agree with iSoc that the odds are going to be better lynching someone on the wagon rather than someone off.

Not if Mango and Theo are BOTH fake claiming scum [or at least anti-Town] AND there's scum off the wagon [since we aren't lynching the claimed PR's]. Assuming a 3 scum 1 sk setup, you are looking at 1:5 [20%] odds. Even if only 1 of them is scum, the odds are 1:3 [33%]. Off the wagon the WORST case scenario is ONLY 1 scum. That's 1:3 [33%]. If you guys think the neighborizer is usually Town? 1:2 [50%]. And that's assuming there aren't two scum off the wagon, which is absolutely possible. In other words, the WORSST case scenario OFF the wagon is just as likely to randomly hit scum [anti-Town] as the BEST case scenario for ON the wagon.

Let's entertain this idea for a minute, though. You and Mango are both voting for Imran. Why Imran? Is it due to the Theo vote?

Also, speaking of Theo, is this a normal level of engagement for him? For someone with a claim out on the table, his activity has been disappointing.

[Lyner]

 

Nah not necessarily both, but at least one sidde

What do you think of my proposal to lynch off the wagon? Any thoughts? Anyone you are leaning towards? If so, why?

 

 

 

 

I'm inclined to agree with iSoc that the odds are going to be better lynching someone on the wagon rather than someone off.

Not if Mango and Theo are BOTH fake claiming scum [or at least anti-Town] AND there's scum off the wagon [since we aren't lynching the claimed PR's]. Assuming a 3 scum 1 sk setup, you are looking at 1:5 [20%] odds. Even if only 1 of them is scum, the odds are 1:3 [33%]. Off the wagon the WORST case scenario is ONLY 1 scum. That's 1:3 [33%]. If you guys think the neighborizer is usually Town? 1:2 [50%]. And that's assuming there aren't two scum off the wagon, which is absolutely possible. In other words, the WORSST case scenario OFF the wagon is just as likely to randomly hit scum [anti-Town] as the BEST case scenario for ON the wagon.

Let's entertain this idea for a minute, though. You and Mango are both voting for Imran. Why Imran? Is it due to the Theo vote?

Also, speaking of Theo, is this a normal level of engagement for him? For someone with a claim out on the table, his activity has been disappointing.

 

 

I still don't get how you get those probabilities, care to explain it to the simpleton me?

 

 

 

And I think you're mistaking me for EM, and yes Theo is like the second almost confirmed townie for me, and he is a potential doctor, and it's a provable role, voting him is terribad, and I love his persistence.

 

I'm not familiar with Theo's gameplay.

 

 

If I'm going one by one then the ones in my suspect list are: Imran, iSoc, killgor, Robert2424, and you

iSoc, Robert and killgor falls under the same reasons, lurking and being reactive only when confronted. killgor gets a bit of town points because of the hammer, though I won't discredit a possibility of scum having a safe list of unused roles(I got those in my previous mafia play)

 

And yeah Yates as I said before a Tracker isn't necessarily a townie

[Yates]

I still don't get how you get those probabilities, care to explain it to the simpleton me?

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Let me do this as if none of us know our *own* roles.

All game we have been assuming 3 scum and 1 SK. That makes 4 anti-Town roles. There are 11 alive and 4 anti-Town. We have 1 mod confirmed Townie alive [Iron Helix] who gets removed from the pool.

We have two options:

1. Lynch from the suspect pool ON the wagon. [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner, Theo, Yates]
2. Lynch from the suspect pool OFF the wagon. [iSoc, Montosh, Robert]

With option 1 [lynch from ON the wagon], we have two people that are not going to be lynched today [Theo and Yates] due to uncountered *provable* PR's. The problem is that 1 or more of those two *could be* anti Town [scum or SK] as far as any Townie could know with absolute confidence at this point in the game. So, you really need to take 1 anti Town out of the equation. Assuming that we had 2 scum and an SK on the wagon [and this is a BEST CASE scenario], you subtract 1 anti Town role [due to the scenario noted above] and end up with 2 anti Town roles left. So you have 2 anti Town roles hidden in 5 potential candidates [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner].
2:5 = 40% chance of hitting scum.
 
If two anti Town roles are off the wagon and you take that role out of the equation? You are left with 1 anti Town role hiding in 5 potential candidates.
1:5 = 20% chance of hitting scum.

So with option 1 you have somewhere between a 20% and 40% chance of hitting scum.  This isn't taking into account a Theo scum/Yates SK scenario only because I'm not anti Town, but you don't know that, in which case the last scenario would have been 0%.

With option 2 [lynch from OFF the wagon], we have a pool of only 3 candidates [iSoc, Montosh, Robert].  In the worst case, there is 1 and only 1 anti Town role off the wagon.  That would give us 1 out of three.
1:3 = 33.3333333333%
 
If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town?  Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool.  That leaves one of iSoc or Robert as scum.
1:2 = 50%
 
Best case scenario for off the wagon?  There are TWO anti Town roles off the wagon.  In this case there are 2 scum in 3 candidates.
2:3 = 66.6666666666%
 
If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town?  Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool.  That leaves both iSoc AND Robert as scum.
2:2 = 100%
 
So with option 2 you have somewhere between 30% and 100% chance of hitting scum.
 
The margins aren't huge so I could be convinced in either direction.  I just feel better about option 2, personally, due to the 50%-100% odds.

 

yes Theo is like the second almost confirmed townie for me, and he is a potential doctor, and it's a provable role, voting him is terribad, and I love his persistence.
...
And yeah Yates as I said before a Tracker isn't necessarily a townie

Doctor [if a real claim] isn't necessarily a townie either.

Basically, the reasons you wouldn't lynch Theo today are exactly the same reasons you wouldn't lynch me today. We are both uncountered. We are both provable [mine has been proven]. And we are both targets for a NK if telling the truth. We also BOTH have the potential to block an anti Town kill and I have the potential to track an anti Town kill attempt.

We still don't know how to vet Mango's claim. So that's something that remains to be sorted out.

[Yates]

@Theo [and ONLY Theo, please - this is important]- who did you protect last and, more importantly, why?

[Kaziocore]

The following people were prodded:

Chaplain of death

Theophilos

[Iron Helix]

 

 

With option 1 [lynch from ON the wagon], we have two people that are not going to be lynched today [Theo and Yates] due to uncountered *provable* PR's. The problem is that 1 or more of those two *could be* anti Town [scum or SK] as far as any Townie could know with absolute confidence at this point in the game. So, you really need to take 1 anti Town out of the equation. Assuming that we had 2 scum and an SK on the wagon [and this is a BEST CASE scenario], you subtract 1 anti Town role [due to the scenario noted above] and end up with 2 anti Town roles left. So you have 2 anti Town roles hidden in 5 potential candidates [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner].
2:5 = 40% chance of hitting scum.
 
If two anti Town roles are off the wagon and you take that role out of the equation? You are left with 1 anti Town role hiding in 5 potential candidates.
1:5 = 20% chance of hitting scum.

So with option 1 you have somewhere between a 20% and 40% chance of hitting scum.  This isn't taking into account a Theo scum/Yates SK scenario only because I'm not anti Town, but you don't know that, in which case the last scenario would have been 0%.

 

 

The scenario you left out is if Theo is town.    Just because two people are not being lynched doesn't change probabilities of a person chosen on the wagon.  From a purely statistical point of view, the odds of Theo being scum compared to any of the others on the wagon are the same (3/7 or 43% with a 3 scum scenario).  

[iSocialism]

 

I still don't get how you get those probabilities, care to explain it to the simpleton me?

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Let me do this as if none of us know our *own* roles.

All game we have been assuming 3 scum and 1 SK. That makes 4 anti-Town roles. There are 11 alive and 4 anti-Town. We have 1 mod confirmed Townie alive [Iron Helix] who gets removed from the pool.

We have two options:

1. Lynch from the suspect pool ON the wagon. [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner, Theo, Yates]
2. Lynch from the suspect pool OFF the wagon. [iSoc, Montosh, Robert]

With option 1 [lynch from ON the wagon], we have two people that are not going to be lynched today [Theo and Yates] due to uncountered *provable* PR's. The problem is that 1 or more of those two *could be* anti Town [scum or SK] as far as any Townie could know with absolute confidence at this point in the game. So, you really need to take 1 anti Town out of the equation. Assuming that we had 2 scum and an SK on the wagon [and this is a BEST CASE scenario], you subtract 1 anti Town role [due to the scenario noted above] and end up with 2 anti Town roles left. So you have 2 anti Town roles hidden in 5 potential candidates [CoD, EM, Imran, killgor, Lyner].
2:5 = 40% chance of hitting scum.
 
If two anti Town roles are off the wagon and you take that role out of the equation? You are left with 1 anti Town role hiding in 5 potential candidates.
1:5 = 20% chance of hitting scum.

So with option 1 you have somewhere between a 20% and 40% chance of hitting scum.  This isn't taking into account a Theo scum/Yates SK scenario only because I'm not anti Town, but you don't know that, in which case the last scenario would have been 0%.

With option 2 [lynch from OFF the wagon], we have a pool of only 3 candidates [iSoc, Montosh, Robert].  In the worst case, there is 1 and only 1 anti Town role off the wagon.  That would give us 1 out of three.
1:3 = 33.3333333333%
 
If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town?  Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool.  That leaves one of iSoc or Robert as scum.
1:2 = 50%
 
Best case scenario for off the wagon?  There are TWO anti Town roles off the wagon.  In this case there are 2 scum in 3 candidates.
2:3 = 66.6666666666%
 
If your site meta is that the neighborizer is *always* Town?  Montosh is cleared and can be removed from the pool.  That leaves both iSoc AND Robert as scum.
2:2 = 100%
 
So with option 2 you have somewhere between 30% and 100% chance of hitting scum.
 
The margins aren't huge so I could be convinced in either direction.  I just feel better about option 2, personally, due to the 50%-100% odds.

 

yes Theo is like the second almost confirmed townie for me, and he is a potential doctor, and it's a provable role, voting him is terribad, and I love his persistence.
...
And yeah Yates as I said before a Tracker isn't necessarily a townie

Doctor [if a real claim] isn't necessarily a townie either.

Basically, the reasons you wouldn't lynch Theo today are exactly the same reasons you wouldn't lynch me today. We are both uncountered. We are both provable [mine has been proven]. And we are both targets for a NK if telling the truth. We also BOTH have the potential to block an anti Town kill and I have the potential to track an anti Town kill attempt.

We still don't know how to vet Mango's claim. So that's something that remains to be sorted out.

 

Let's just do what we know

As a group people are more likely to think of 1 scum off the wagon, while the other 3 anti-town are likely on the wagon, so 1/3 33% vs 3/7 42% People won't vote for Montosh still doesn't change the fact that he might be that one scum, but for your flavor 1/2 50%

Now lets look at the wagon... 3/7 people most likely won't vote for Theo or Yates, doesn't mean that either of them are not scum just people are least likely to vote for Theo.. so 3/5 66%

Unless everyone believes there to be two anti town off the wagon and will vote for the other person on d3 I don't think we should use the the 2/2 100% deal, because if we use that we should use the Theo, Yates and EM are town and the all anti-town are on the wagon which will be 4/4 100%

Your input seems to be bias by the way.

[Yates]

Your input seems to be bias by the way.

Not much I can do about that. It's easier to sell something you believe in.