You and your friends have decided to go to the rumored "haunted woods" for a Halloween camping trip. You set up camp and are just sitting down for some s'mores. You begin telling stories about past groups who have gone camping and have never been seen again. You wonder if you'll make it through the night...
 
 
Players:

• Nick the Great
• Imran
• Electric Mango
• Preston
• Montosh
• iSocialism
• Rafay
• Robert2424
• KevinH
• Dman3726 Commander Shepard
• Lyner
• Kaziocore

Still Alive (3/12)
 

Nick the Great

Montosh
Lyner
Kaziocore

 
Dead (9/12)

 

 

Rafay, 1-Shot town doctor was lynched on day 1.

Electric Mango Town Cop was night killed.

Imran Mafia Roleblocker was night killed.

Commander Shepard Vanilla townie was lynched on day 2.

Preston Vanilla townie was night killed.

Robert2424 Vanilla townie was night killed.

KevinH Vanilla townie was lynched.

Lyner, 1-shot town Roleblocker was night killed.

iSocialism Vanilla townie was night killed.

 

 

0 response from Rafay makes me think we may have hit the jackpot early. apart from a half-hearted "you will be sorry you lynched me"  there has been nothing of worth from him. at least some moral outrage at the unfairness of the world-at-large picking on an innocent victim may have been expected from a townie being lynched on day 1. seems like he just gave up..kinda like EM did in the last game. any case, we will know soon enough anyway.

 

 

I see a big difference between EM last game and Rafay now.

 

EM knew the lynch was inevitable.  Rafay could have tried to convince us and might have been successful.

At the worst, you're going to lynch an inactive.

Do you suspect players who voted Rafay?

 

I'm obviously hoping for the Jackpot case that Imran references above. As Kevin points out, Rafay can/could try to convince us otherwise by being more active and posting - giving us a reason to doubt enough to back off on the vote. The way I see it, the silence from Rafay lends itself to a few options:

 

1. Rafay is continuing to lurk, but sees nothing worth saying. Given that Rafay's prior inactivity kept ending *right* when he was called out for lurking or otherwise pushed for an answer, it's hard for me to fully believe Rafay not posting means he is truly inactive. 

 

2. Rafay has given up on the game because he thinks his lynch is a foregone conclusion, and is no longer checking the thread. This is not inherently scum giving up; but as Imran points out, I'd have expected more 'dont lynch me/big mistake!' from a town player - I have a hard time equating that to his "See what happens" post. Doubly so if he had a power role of any sort - unless this is one of those weird games where he has a role that activates on his death or something.

 

3. Rafay is genuinely inactive - in which case this is little better or worse than the 'Lynch the inactives!' push earlier in the day that started on Dman. Plenty of people were pushing for that at the time. 

 

As for those of us currently voting for Rafay:

 

If Rafay turns out to be Scum, then awesome! Look at the order that votes went on; that may be important to note.

 

If Rafay turns out to be town... then we'll have lynched someone who was both inactive/lurking and actively sabotaging himself and town by drawing suspicion. I'd probably pay the most attention to iSocialism and/or EM at that point, as their votes were applied last... but not a strong indication in either direction. And of course, KevinH will get to say "I Told You So."

 

I'm hoping for the 3/11 odds to be in our favor, and actually get the rare Day 1 scum lynch. I'm not going to back out now unless something major changes... so as Rafay put it, let's "see what happens" come deadline. 

 

-Preston

If Rafay turns out to be scum, I will not suspect those voting for him.

 

Otherwise, no-lynch would have been the best course of action and those on the wagon get scummie-points for not choosing the best course of action.

 

In fact ...

 

Vote: No-Lynch

well, I was hoping he'd at least answer me. Guess I'm not good enough for an answer. Thanks Rafay. Makes me feel so important. 

 

That being said, I'll take the risk and hammer him tomorrow. 

 

@EM, its mainly your posts throughout day phases which catches my eye. Not just on day one. 

@Preston, from your posting you must be really rusty, I'm getting the, basic q's to answer from you. So, idk bout you now. 

@Preston, from your posting you must be really rusty, I'm getting the, basic q's to answer from you. So, idk bout you now. 

 

This being my first game in a while, 'Rusty' is certainly a fair term. With that said - my thinking is that stating the questions, which I think is what you meant, is a useful way to get discussion going, especially if someone else disagrees with my analysis and brings counter points instead. In a game where picking apart people's posts is most of the game itself, you need to throw stuff out there for people to respond to. 

 

But yeah... I may have to throttle back a bit if I've been posting a tad bit too often I gather page 11 day 1 isn't exactly normal. 

 

-Preston

If Rafay turns out to be scum, I will not suspect those voting for him.

 

Otherwise, no-lynch would have been the best course of action and those on the wagon get scummie-points for not choosing the best course of action.

 

In fact ...

 

Vote: No-Lynch

Okay noted. You're not in favor of lynching Rafay who is obviously lurking. I'd like to prevent the same situation from the last game. 

I want to understand your reason for letting him live with his actions right now.

If Rafay is mafia then it's awesome. If he is town then it's still good as we lose one inactive player.

This means if we have a cop, they will not waste it on inactive players.

Also we wouldn't want this attitude especially if it's LYLO. Imagine if he's town and it's between him and scum.

He would just give up and not put up a fight.

Although I respect your honesty, I was hoping you would right now post your suspicions.

People don't suddenly become scummy based on the result of the wagon especially when

almost everyone agreed that Rafay whether his scum or town is being anti-town (but mostly he's scummy)

 

Also no lynching would be useless because I doubt it will win over Rafay.

 

Anyway last question, you don't suspect Rafay or any other player for that matter right now?

kevin seems to be trying to live up to his reputation of always no-lynching on day 1 no matter how illogical it is. tbf, he will probably be accused of being scum if does vote to lynch someone on Day 1

Nick the Great (0)

Imran (0)

Electric Mango (1) - Rafay

Preston (0)

Montosh (1) - Commander Shepard

iSocialism (0)

Rafay (6) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango

Robert2424 (0)

KevinH (0)

Commander Shepard (0) 

Lyner (1) - Montosh

Kaziocore (0)

No Lynch (1) -   Nick the Great, KevinH

 

Not Voting (1) - Robert2424

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to reach majority and 4 to reach half majority.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-1.

Deadline is Rhivember, 25 2014 12:00 PM EST.

Rafay, Town 1-Shot Doctor has been lynched.

 

It is now Night 1.

Send all night actions to me by November, 28 2014 12:00PM EST.

Day 2 Starts

 

 

Nick the Great (0)

Preston (0)

Montosh (0)
iSocialism (0)
Robert2424 (0)
KevinH (0)

Commander Shepard (0) 

Lyner (0)
Kaziocore (0)

No Lynch (0)

Not Voting (9) - Nick the Great, Preston, Montosh, iSocialism, Robert2424, KevinH, Commander Shepard, Lyner, Kaziocore

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to reach majority and 3 to reach half majority.

There is no wagon leader at this time.

Deadline is December, 10 2014 12:00 AM EST.

 

 

Electric Mango, Town Cop has been night killed.

Imran, Mafia Roleblocker has been night killed.

Well, we lost the doctor and the cop.  Are we screwed now?

Well, we lost the doctor and the cop.  Are we screwed now?

I can't imagine there was more than 3 power roles in town

ok then. Rafay was doctor. He simply gave up. He didn't want to role claim, as he would of just been killed night 1 anyways. Though giving up didn't help us either, a soft claim could of helped us alot here. even if it wasn't obvious. Unfortunately he didn't. course at the same time if he did, very few could of noticed. The one time I was doc, I soft claimed it via Italicing the letters d, o, c, and nobody even noticed. 

 

EM was the Cop, though I wonder why the mafia targeted him? Power roles are dropping. 

 

Imran was mafia. more importantly a RoleBlocker, this could mean there are more power roles. Was anybody blocked? Second, how did he die. Really either an SK killed him, or a vig. Vigs normally don't shoot n1, but they could, so right now, unless somebody claims they killed Imran, I'm leaning toward SK. Secondly, if a vig would of killed him, what gave the vig such confidence to shoot him night 1? If an SK killed him, why choose him? 

 

So 1 scum down, and we know there is at least 2 killing roles out there. 

 

looking at the voting, both EM and Irman was on the lynch wagon. So one scum was on the lynch. We know this to be true now. 

 

We should go over the deceased post from yesterday to see if we can gain any additional insight. Even if it only minor. 

@d3mon, you may wish due to the long night phase to message all players letting them know that day 2 has started.

Hard to write a full post as I'm on an iPad while visiting family.

Brief thoughts:

1. Rafay being town after the way he played - with power role no less! - really hurt. I know I wasn't alone in suspecting him, and can't fault any of what we saw as suspicious... But I'd really hoped we had flushed out a scum on day 1 by catching their contradictions.

2. Two people killed last night means someone other than mafia has/had a killing role. A vigilante is possible, but given the games theme I'd bank on a serial killer.

3. EM being killed is interesting. I would have looked hard at him as one of the last two bandwagon votes; with him proven town I'd look more at isocialism as the remaining one. But that will wait until I have a better device to reread with.

Eh interesting

 

 

I also feel that we're dealing with SK here, first night vig kill is unlikely

 

Not sure about EM but I guess the SK thought that Imran is the cop

 

Too bad about Rafay :|

Yeah, an SK here seems more likely than a n1 vig.

Thats why I said unless somebody claimed it.

Aw shucks.

 

With his hands in his pockets, he kicks a small rock as he turns and walks away.

Okay, lets get this talk going. I know a lot of people think that I'm a probable suspect, which I knew might happen. But I stuck my foot down, because there was just something about Rafay. Maybe it was because it was his first time playing. Anyways

 

out of the 6 on th Rafay's lynch two were killed. EM and Imran. EM was a cop and Im was a scum leaving us with 4 (Kaz, Lyner, iSo, and Preston).

 

I thinking that There is 3 scums as well, and I think one more was on the wagon, while the other one was off the wagon.

Kaz is in the clear, because he demanded input to Imran votings, iSo well... Lyner he;s normally is scum, but every game is different. However,

I'm led back to a person that caught my eye on day 1. Not to mention someone that Imran defended in a few of his post.

 

Vote; Preston

 

I think EM might have the ability to NK and choose Imran as his target, but not exactly sure if there is/isn't a sk.

I told you so.

I told you so.

Got anymore input other than this.

Nobody knows Rafay is town except scum.

Rafay was acting scummy and the way he acted was disappointing.

This is not how you play as town. 

 

Based from the night kill, I'm pretty sure that the one of the killer is an SK.

Who would in the right mind, kill an experienced player as vigilante?

I think it's unlikely that there are redirectors and the like here

as I assume I'm the only mod who uses them in games lol.

 

I need time to reread the posts but on my initial readings, dman/commander shephard is probably town

because of Imran doesn't care that he will lynch him and I think iSocialism is leaning towards town even

though I disagree with him. Even on D1, he was suspecting Preston and suspecting an experienced player

is not something scum would usually do.

 

Also I'll be busy until Sunday because I'll be out of town because of work

although I'll probably have access to internet (I hope) :\

To be fair, I should be added to the lynch wagon. The only reason I was unable to hammer was awkward timing. I don't get no free pass here. 

Okay, back at home with an actual computer to review/reply. This has ended up being a fairly long post; please do read the below as I explain the thought process I have, instead of just jumping to the end and seeing who I voted for. 

 

I posted a brief response the other night, but to elaborate - Rafay did the town a huge disservice with how he played, doubly so with the power role he squandered. You really do have to be active and actually care about not being lynched to keep the town going. 

 

The town has now lost a 1-shot doctor and cop, and mafia lost a roleblocker. Losing the cop has hurt us the most... scum got very lucky with their kill. The combination of roleblocker and doctor roles seen do lend themselves to the idea that a Serial Killer is on the loose - i.e. both sides have a way to block a kill. Given the number of players, I'd assume town has 1 or 2 more power roles (the 1-shot is weak for a longer game), and scum may have 1 more. And then the serial killer themselves. The biggest danger is that if we're right about there being a serial killer, we now have very little way to find them even if we DO flush out both remaining scum...

 

There were six of us on the vote wagon, including myself:  Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango

 

Of those six, EM and Imran were were nightkilled. Imran's death is obviously due to some other role - current theory is a serial killer per above - but scum's choice to kill EM seems an odd one to me.

 

EM is a veteran player with good analysis - it makes sense to eliminate him. However, EM was also on the list that lynched Rafay and doubly suspicious for piling on the wagon at the end... he was already going to be suspected on day 2, and may well have been lynched if they hadn't killed him. Why would the scum want to REDUCE the number of townies they could reasonably expect to lynch and draw suspicion away from themselves...? If anything it was a poor decision because reducing that number from six to five raised the odds that Imran could be singled out of the list, since they could not know Imran would also be killed!

 

Consider the list of those who did NOT vote for Rafay - KevinH, Montosh, NickTheGreat, Commander Shepard, and Robert. Nick and Shepard are new (and Shepard has barely posted thus far, post more!), so using a night kill on them would have limited value. That leaves Robert, Montosh and Kevin as the more experienced players the scum COULD have killed to hurt the town without increasing the risk to Imran by shrinking the Rafay lynch list. Without intending disrespect to Montosh or Robert, I think Kevin is seen as the more attractive option for removal based on 'experienced player' value, similar to EM.

 

Before I continue this thought, I'm going to include Kaz and Kevin's quoted post below for context:

 

 

I told you so.

Got anymore input other than this.

Nobody knows Rafay is town except scum.

Rafay was acting scummy and the way he acted was disappointing.

This is not how you play as town. 

 

Based from the night kill, I'm pretty sure that the one of the killer is an SK.

Who would in the right mind, kill an experienced player as vigilante?

I think it's unlikely that there are redirectors and the like here

as I assume I'm the only mod who uses them in games lol.

 

I need time to reread the posts but on my initial readings, dman/commander shephard is probably town

because of Imran doesn't care that he will lynch him and I think iSocialism is leaning towards town even

though I disagree with him. Even on D1, he was suspecting Preston and suspecting an experienced player

is not something scum would usually do.

 

Also I'll be busy until Sunday because I'll be out of town because of work

although I'll probably have access to internet (I hope) :\

 

 

I've bolded Kaz's first paragraph for emphasis. And italicized the first line. 

 

We already expected KevinH's "I told you so" post. However reading back, for the entire first day he was supremely unhelpful - sounding like a broken record even given his normal no-lynch policy. He explicitly stated early on that he'd be accused of scumminess if he didn't vote no-lynch - perhaps true given his history/reputation, but it's also a perfect cover for him, isn't it? Imran (now confirmed scum) also all but endorsed Kevin's defense just before Day 1 ended:

 

kevin seems to be trying to live up to his reputation of always no-lynching on day 1 no matter how illogical it is. tbf, he will probably be accused of being scum if does vote to lynch someone on Day 1 

 

In the spirit of full disclosure, Imran also posted disagreeing with iSocialism's attack on me (Preston) and supporting the bandwagon against Rafay. I thanked Imran for his vote of confidence at the time, as he was supporting what I was saying about Rafay - but now we have to look at Imran's posts knowing that he was scum and knew Rafay was town. Imran agreeing with me supporting the lynch wagon that he ultimately joined makes sense... it's the fact he felt the need to explicitly comment on KevinH's defense at the end of Day 1 that draws my attention.

 

 

In the last game that I watched while modding, KevinH was seemingly FAR more helpful in terms of activity, analysis and other examinations of available information that helped the town. This game Kevin somehow ignored the poor way Rafay played and contradicted himself... evidence that others including EM (now confirmed town) took as compelling enough for the lynch - with not much opinion seeming to be offered on the matter. 

 

Consider the theory that if KevinH is scum, it would explain his ability to stick with the "no lynch" line despite the mounting evidence against Rafay everyone else was looking at (since they truly DID know nothing) - because Kevin-as-scum would know Rafay is town, and could then capitalize by throwing suspicion on the Rafay lynch list. However Kevin-as-scum would have to exclude himself as a night kill candidate... which would explain why the scum killed EM instead of Kevin, when Kevin would have otherwise been a far more attractive target due to his experience *and* staying off the Rafay lynch. 

 

I don't want to give Montosh or Robert a *completely* free pass here - but they at least were participating during day 1 more than Kevin was. Montosh not being scum-killed instead of EM I don't see as conclusive, due to EM's seniority/experience that may have been the deciding factor in who they wanted to target. The fact that Robert is saying to not give him a pass is interesting as well... I dont know if a scum would *remind* people that they were in favor of lynching someone who proved townie. 

 

iSoc has also posted some content, so let's respond to that:

 

Okay, lets get this talk going. I know a lot of people think that I'm a probable suspect, which I knew might happen. But I stuck my foot down, because there was just something about Rafay. Maybe it was because it was his first time playing. Anyways

 

out of the 6 on th Rafay's lynch two were killed. EM and Imran. EM was a cop and Im was a scum leaving us with 4 (Kaz, Lyner, iSo, and Preston).

 

I thinking that There is 3 scums as well, and I think one more was on the wagon, while the other one was off the wagon.

Kaz is in the clear, because he demanded input to Imran votings, iSo well... Lyner he;s normally is scum, but every game is different. However,

I'm led back to a person that caught my eye on day 1. Not to mention someone that Imran defended in a few of his post.

 

Vote; Preston

 

I think EM might have the ability to NK and choose Imran as his target, but not exactly sure if there is/isn't a sk.

 

First and foremost - EM is dead. He was the Town Cop - so therefore I don't know what to think of your last line where you say you think EM had an ability. If you meant someone other than EM, please clarify. 

 

Getting the talk going I agree with. Same with sticking your foot down - albeit in a belated manner, once Rafay was already at the half-majority mark and going to be lynched anyway. I agree that sometimes as town you have to be willing to be bold with your vote so that you're not seen as lurking and waiting for a wagon you can quietly join. 

 

 

I know that I caught your eye on day 1 due to my activity and trying to encourage others to make more use of the day. I said at the time that I appreciated your activity and better thought-out post, even if it was pointed at me - and I still stand by that. We need that kind of discussion or the scum (and now a potential serial killer!) will pick us off one or two at a time. 

 

It's possible another scum was on the wagon, and thus remaining among the four of us. Let's take a look at the list:

 

Lyner - I was looking at him on day 1 due to his vague "Much scummy" on Robert with minimal context since the rest of his post had been about other stuff. He failed to get one bandwagon started, and instead joined Kaz in pressuring Rafay to post before Rafay's playing made him more suspicious. 

 

Kaziocore - Started the lynch on Rafay, but overall I see him more as town due to his post content and activity level; townie levels of trying to figure things out. If Kaz turns out to be scum I'll be quite surprised indeed. 

 

iSocialism - Main datapoint on you is your bandwagoning Rafay after he reached the 4-vote half majority mark. You and EM both did this, and EM was killed; thusly you were worth looking at. However I can see this as a point both for and against you - pro side your willingness to be on record voting for an effectively already-lynched player, con side your bandwagoning someone who was ultimately proven townie. 

 

Preston - Myself. I saw Rafay's suspicious behavior Day 1 and contributed to the ultimately wrong bandwagon against him. I was quite vocal in analysis pointing out Rafay's contradictions, challenging him to explain his thoughts more. Obviously I defend myself as town, but I will acknowledge how I can be seen as having somewhat driven Rafay's lynch. As iSoc said earlier - "there was just something about Rafay" and I ended up "sticking my foot down" to take a solid stand and see what happened. 

 

Out of this list, if ANYONE is scum I'd waver between Lyner and iSoc... probably just Lyner as iSoc's actions are looking increasingly town, even if still pointed at me. 

 

However I do not want us to fall prey to the trap of assuming that the four remaining Rafay votes are exclusive list of suspects! Remember that the scum chose to kill EM, *knowing* it would reduce the list of Rafay voters to five and that Imran (scum) was on that list. The scum could NOT have known that Imran would also be killed, thus they were planning for a Day 2 debate where the five remaining voters would be heavily examined. If *two* scum were on that list - Imran and someone else - the increased risk of one of their own being lynched on Day 2 could override the benefit of taking EM out of the game as an experienced player, and I'd have expected someone else to have been lynched. Therefore we must consider people not from the Rafay bandwagon as valid targets as well.

 

When I wrote the other night on an iPad (and when it was harder to reread the thread), I was more looking at iSocialism - due to the fact that changed his stance and joined the bandwagon against Rafay once it already looked like a sure thing. With EM gone, iSocialism was my primary suspect. However with the rereading and analysis I've done today, I'm revising that to put KevinH at the top of my current scum list. 

 

Vote: KevinH

 

Sorry for the length of the preceding wall of text; hopefully it has been helpful!

 

-Preston