You and your friends have decided to go to the rumored "haunted woods" for a Halloween camping trip. You set up camp and are just sitting down for some s'mores. You begin telling stories about past groups who have gone camping and have never been seen again. You wonder if you'll make it through the night...
 
 
Players:

• Nick the Great
• Imran
• Electric Mango
• Preston
• Montosh
• iSocialism
• Rafay
• Robert2424
• KevinH
• Dman3726 Commander Shepard
• Lyner
• Kaziocore

Still Alive (3/12)
 

Nick the Great

Montosh
Lyner
Kaziocore

 
Dead (9/12)

 

 

Rafay, 1-Shot town doctor was lynched on day 1.

Electric Mango Town Cop was night killed.

Imran Mafia Roleblocker was night killed.

Commander Shepard Vanilla townie was lynched on day 2.

Preston Vanilla townie was night killed.

Robert2424 Vanilla townie was night killed.

KevinH Vanilla townie was lynched.

Lyner, 1-shot town Roleblocker was night killed.

iSocialism Vanilla townie was night killed.

 

 

Vote Montosh

I know it's not bolded but I have to use my phone until the 11th. The reason I'm voting for montosh is because he's was off the vote wagon on d1, and is.not active ATM.

Vote Montosh

I know it's not bolded but I have to use my phone until the 11th. The reason I'm voting for montosh is because he's was off the vote wagon on d1, and is.not active ATM.

 

You're correct in that Montosh is certainly inactive at the moment - along with most of the rest of the game. The main other association with Montosh that sticks out is that Dman - before he was replaced by Commander Shepard - voted for Montosh with no elaboration and then stopped posting.

 

Montosh being off the Rafay wagon would fit the logic we've discussed so far, but my eye is still very much on KevinH for the reasons I have previously posted. 

 

@d3mon, mass prods is a good way to start. I'd also appreciate an updated vote count showing what votes are in place thus far and the end of the day.

 

-Preston

Well we could always save the lurk/inactive lynch as last resort.

 

 

 

 

 

Let's collect more data while we can,

 

Vote: KevinH

 

Kevin seems like he's trying to keep a low profile in this game, something an SK would love to do

Low profile?  

I challenge you to a post count!

touche :V

 

 

 

still, that's the impression I get

lol, Its been awhile since I saw THAT happen. I literally loled. 

 

Montosh is active, just not here....which makes me personally think he'd rather skid through this. 

 

Vote Montosh

 

Pressure to get him a posting. Though I like how things are going and getting more reads now. 

lol, Its been awhile since I saw THAT happen. I literally loled. 

 

Montosh is active, just not here....which makes me personally think he'd rather skid through this. 

 

Vote Montosh

 

Pressure to get him a posting. Though I like how things are going and getting more reads now. 

 

Have you seen Montosh as having been reading this topic, or just having posted elsewhere on the forums?

 

In either case... @d3mon, can we get an updated vote count/deadline?

 

-Preston

Three days to deadline and three votes needed to lynch at deadline.

We need to agree on the most unlucky inactive.

Hey peoples, RL is a bitch

 

Robert, i've posted in the occasional target thread, but i'm not very active. That said, I have been checking out this thread now and again.

 

@The Kevin wagon, i'm not really seeing the reason for this. Other than him being right about the wagon on Day 1 and gloating a little about it.

 

@me being inactive. I'm hesitant to ask for a replacement for me just after kaz, so i'll try to stay active enough here while kaz gets sorted.

 

MOD: Could we get a vote count?

 

Still, I don't disagree with the notion about lynching inactives. Actively posting is usually better than lurking, unless the person posting is really scummy. And I don't think anyone has presented themselves as being really scummy, except perhaps those who voted for Kevin randomly. Also, isocialism's vote on Preston still confuses me.

Three days to deadline and three votes needed to lynch at deadline.

We need to agree on the most unlucky inactive.

 

If your metric is simply lynching an inactive, Montosh apparently no longer applies. I am mindful of the fact Montosh came back to post now that he's got 2 votes and we've been asking about him, but so far it's not fully making me suspect the way Rafay's lurking did. 

 

Also, framing the debate in terms of only inactives being valid targets is an interesting way to deflect votes from yourself. So far you're the only player I've got a stronger reason to distrust, so I'm not inclined to let you go that easily. If another wagon presents itself we can try going that route, but I'm not moving my vote untilt hen. 

 

Hey peoples, RL is a bitch

 

Robert, i've posted in the occasional target thread, but i'm not very active. That said, I have been checking out this thread now and again.

 

@The Kevin wagon, i'm not really seeing the reason for this. Other than him being right about the wagon on Day 1 and gloating a little about it.

 

@me being inactive. I'm hesitant to ask for a replacement for me just after kaz, so i'll try to stay active enough here while kaz gets sorted.

 

MOD: Could we get a vote count?

 

Still, I don't disagree with the notion about lynching inactives. Actively posting is usually better than lurking, unless the person posting is really scummy. And I don't think anyone has presented themselves as being really scummy, except perhaps those who voted for Kevin randomly. Also, isocialism's vote on Preston still confuses me.

 

I had a longer post earlier where I broke down my reason for voting for Kevin - it is decidedly NOT random - but I'll reiterate the key points. I would encourage you to go back and read the actual post however. 

 

1. There were 6 people on the Rafay lynch wagon, one of whom (Imran) has since been proven scum by being nightkilled by the supposed Serial Killer. 

 

2. Scum chose to kill EM - an experienced player, but one on the lynch wagon. This effectively meant that Imran would have had a 1/5 chance of being singled out during today's votes if town focused on the Rafay wagon; perhaps acceptable odds.

 

3. The fact that the scum did NOT kill KevinH draws my attention. He is an experienced player who was not on the lynch wagon and who was objectively more 'town' by virtue of having spoken against Rafay's lynch. He should have been a clear choice for a scum kill, as opposed to EM whose death shrank the list Imran was hiding in. 

 

4. The scum could not have known Imran would be nightkilled, so they were likely planning for a day 2 debate about the members of the Rafay wagon.  They thought 1-in-5 odds for Imran were acceptable so they killed EM. If *two* members of scum were on that wagon, however, I am less inclined to believe they would have made that choice - that would have been 2-in-5 chance of one of them getting caught. Therefore I suspect the remaining one or two scum are in fact NOT on the Rafay wagon list. Kevin meets this criteria.

 

5. Throughout Day 1, Kevin stuck to his "no lynch" strategy to a fault - not even acknowledging the suspicious way Rafay played. We had six people (one scum) vote for Rafay, and at least one other (Robert) also convinced that Rafay's contradictions, etc were suspicious enough to lynch - so this was not something to be ignored. Instead, KevinH took every opportunity to remind us that we had no real evidence, threw down a ceremonial no-lynch vote at the end to solidify his stance, and on Day 2 reminded us that 'his' course of action would have left another townie alive. Imran (proven scum) even endorsed Kevin's no-lynch defense just before Day 1 ended. Overall this feels to me like Kevin overplayed his hand - sticking with no-lynch so adamantly because he *knew* Rafay was town, and he'd be able to gloat about it later. You don't ignore someone contradicting themselves if you truly know nothing - the fact that Kevin did makes me think he had his own information, and wasn't interested in learning/discovering anything else - i.e. he is scum. 

 

For the above reasons, KevinH remains my main candidate for lynch. 

 

Another, less tangible reason that I don't include above: I am inclined to think that someone with an 'exciting' role like Mafia or serial killer would be more inclined to stay with the game so they can use their role. While scum or SK may try to stay under the radar, I'd expect them to keep posting at least enough to not be inactive. Therefore I think lynching an inactive has a higher probability of killing another town instead of scum. 

 

We need that updated vote count, but I believe we currently have 2 votes on KevinH and 2 votes on Montosh - the latter I believe mostly based on Montosh's prior inactivity. With Montosh no longer inactive, that leaves the 2 vote wagon on KevinH. 

 

As Kevin reminded us, we have 3 days remaining until deadline, and need 3 votes to lynch someone with a half-majority when that time comes. Either we can add one vote to the existing pair on Kevin, or build a new wagon against someone else. For obvious reasons I'm voting for the former. 

 

-Preston

Nick the Great (0)

Preston (0) 

Montosh (2) - iSocialism, Robert2424

iSocialism (0)

Robert2424 (0)

KevinH (2) - Preston, Lyner

Commander Shepard (0) - KevinH

Lyner (0)

Kaziocore (0)

No Lynch (0)

 

Not Voting (4) - Nick the Great, Montosh, Commander Shepard, Kaziocore

 

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to reach majority and 3 to reach half majority.

KevinH is the current wagon leader at L-3.

Deadline is December, 10 2014 12:00 AM EST.

 

Sorry guys. My trip was extended to Sunday so later after work, I'll start rereading and posting again.

@Montosh. Ok, thanks for that info. 

 

my vote was to get him posting, so while that was accomplished, I need more insight from other players. so....

 

Unvote

Vote Commander Shepard

 

Lets get more conversation going here. 

Oh, such pressure.

I guess I am being forced to role-claim.

OK, I'm a vanilla townie.

 

Vote: Montosh

 

because we really don't want to lynch a claimed vanilla townie.

Date of most recent post:

2014-11-21 Commander Shepard
2014-11-28 Nick the Great
2014-12-05 iSocialism
2014-12-06 Lyner
2014-12-07 Preston
2014-12-07 Montosh
2014-12-07 Robert2424
2014-12-07 KevinH
2014-12-07 Kaziocore

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

 

It's really the best choice.

Sorry guys. My trip was extended to Sunday so later after work, I'll start rereading and posting again.

Looking forward to hearing more from you then - this day is likely going to come down to the wire it seems.

 

@Montosh. Ok, thanks for that info. 

 

my vote was to get him posting, so while that was accomplished, I need more insight from other players. so....

 

Unvote

Vote Commander Shepard

 

Lets get more conversation going here. 

Hopefully Montosh keeps posting - I want to see his response to what I replied to him above.

 

I suppose there are far worse targets for pressure than Commander Shepard. Not on the Rafay wagon, so matches that criteria. I guess he could be scum and inactive, since the other scum could put in the kill action. 

 

Oh, such pressure.

I guess I am being forced to role-claim.

OK, I'm a vanilla townie.

 

Vote: Montosh

 

because we really don't want to lynch a claimed vanilla townie.

 

There's not much to a Vanilla Townie claim; it's a safe tactic for a scum to take, but also the only thing a real townie can do. So it really doesn't help your position at all - the sarcasm is about as helpful as you were for all of Day 1 though. 

 

I find it interesting that you threw another vote onto the inactive-montosh wagon, AFTER Montosh had posted. Montosh is no longer inactive after all; so that cause for the bandwagon is now gone. If Robert had not moved his vote, yours would have been the third on Montosh - making it the first wagon to reach that milestone - meaning that if there was a tie at deadline, he'd have been the one lynched before you. 

 

So tell us, what in Montosh's post made you decide to switch your vote to him and away from Robert's joining your vote on Commander Shepard? 

 

-Preston

Preston, i'm reading your original post where to voted for Kevin and will respond with thoughts:

 

I agree, that since scum went after EM, who was on the Rafay wagon, it seems unlikely that two scum would be on the wagon, since that would mean the was a 2/5 odds of them being discovered. They could have been looking for a power role with EM(and they found one), and that might have offset the 2/5 risk for them. That being said, it does seem somewhat unlikely.

 

Kevin is an experienced player for sure, and might have been beneficial to the scum. But I also think Kevin has a tendency to appear somewhat scummy, and if I remember right, that feeling was expressed Day 1.

 

Kevin did his normal no-lynch routine. Sure, it might seem scummy if he didn't do it, but I also think he believes no-lynching is better for the town. That said, he wasn't a helpful as he usually is, and I think that's the biggest thing this wagon has going for it. 

 

Considering Imran's action is good. The fact that he focused on Kevin's defenses might be something, or it could be him just trying to be helpful and act like town.

 

Yes, not being on the Rafay wagon made him not being a NK target make sense. But he *always* votes to no-lynch Day 1. Sure, it would be useful if he's scum, but considering it's how he always goes about the first day, I don't see it as too much to go on.

 

So, all in all, i'm not entirely sure about it. Maybe i'll read through the thread again to get a better feel. The general unhelpfulness and the unlikelyness of two scum being on the wagon is the biggest thing going for the wagon, but the same could be said for some inactives.

Preston, i'm reading your original post where to voted for Kevin and will respond with thoughts:

 

I agree, that since scum went after EM, who was on the Rafay wagon, it seems unlikely that two scum would be on the wagon, since that would mean the was a 2/5 odds of them being discovered. They could have been looking for a power role with EM(and they found one), and that might have offset the 2/5 risk for them. That being said, it does seem somewhat unlikely.

 

Kevin is an experienced player for sure, and might have been beneficial to the scum. But I also think Kevin has a tendency to appear somewhat scummy, and if I remember right, that feeling was expressed Day 1.

 

Kevin did his normal no-lynch routine. Sure, it might seem scummy if he didn't do it, but I also think he believes no-lynching is better for the town. That said, he wasn't a helpful as he usually is, and I think that's the biggest thing this wagon has going for it. 

 

Considering Imran's action is good. The fact that he focused on Kevin's defenses might be something, or it could be him just trying to be helpful and act like town.

 

Yes, not being on the Rafay wagon made him not being a NK target make sense. But he *always* votes to no-lynch Day 1. Sure, it would be useful if he's scum, but considering it's how he always goes about the first day, I don't see it as too much to go on.

 

So, all in all, i'm not entirely sure about it. Maybe i'll read through the thread again to get a better feel. The general unhelpfulness and the unlikelyness of two scum being on the wagon is the biggest thing going for the wagon, but the same could be said for some inactives.

Nice to see a response from you Montosh! Decent length and content as well. Let's see...

 

Scum are always looking for power roles to take out! They got lucky finding one with EM, but they could not have *known* he had one in advance since there had been no prior night for any role cop/etc role they might have to have gotten a response. So they went after EM not knowing he had a role.

 

It sounds like you're saying the scum skipped over Kevin because he has a tendency to appear scummy, and hence get himself lynched. I still feel the combination of Kevin's experience and his not being on the wagon should have made him the clear choice... doubly so since EM was on Rafay's wagon and the suspicion on Day 2 could have been turned to try and lynch EM then. Even if Kevin had such a reputation - and he didn't seem to last game - I'm still not sure that would be enough to override the advantage of his not being on the Rafay wagon when EM was. 

 

To clarify what I said above:

I understand usually Day 1 is little more than random votes and on their own odds were in favor of whoever is lynched being town - but I don't think you usually get such a clear-cut case of suspicion on Day 1 either. Even after Rafay's final "See what happens" post that sounded like scum giving up, Kevin doubled down on his no-lynch position with a ceremonial vote. What struck me about Kevin isn't just so much his no-lynch stance, but rather that he stuck with it so stubbornly in spite of the suspicious behavior we saw, as though he knew how it would turn out in advance and wasn't interested in picking up on clues from what people posted. As I said above, I think Kevin has depended on his no-lynch role a little TOO much this game to shield him from criticism. 

 

On a different note, what is your reaction to Kevin's putting what would have been the third vote on your inactivity bandwagon, *after* you returned and posted? As I commented, that would have put you first in line for the lynch if two 3-vote wagons were present at the deadline. Robert's moving a vote away from you first made a difference there.

 

-Preston

I'm a vanilla townie.  What else can I say?

 

Putting somebody else to 3 votes rather than me will keep this vanilla townie alive.  That's acting in the town's best interest.

I will stick up for kevinH I have played many games with him. And this is how he normally acts. Granted this is how he would act if he was Schmidt as well, but I don't think he is. I feel to much time and attention is wasted on him. When it could be focused else where.

For now though

Bold/ unvote bold/

I try to play the same whether I'm townie or scum.

But this time I really am a townie.

I have reservations about Kevin, but not enough to place a vote on him at this time. 

Nick the Great (0)

Preston (0) 

Montosh (0)

iSocialism (0)

Robert2424 (0)

KevinH (2) - Preston, Lyner

Commander Shepard (0) - KevinH, Robert2424

Lyner (0)

Kaziocore (0)

No Lynch (0)

 

Not Voting (4) - Nick the Great, Montosh, Commander Shepard, Kaziocore, iSocialism

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to reach majority and 3 to reach half majority.

 

KevinH is the current wagon leader at L-3.

Deadline is December, 10 2014 12:00 AM EST.

 

 

I'm a vanilla townie.  What else can I say?

 

Putting somebody else to 3 votes rather than me will keep this vanilla townie alive.  That's acting in the town's best interest.

I'd have been less suspicious if it had not seemed you were trying to pull a fast one by doing so. 

 

I will stick up for kevinH I have played many games with him. And this is how he normally acts. Granted this is how he would act if he was Schmidt as well, but I don't think he is. I feel to much time and attention is wasted on him. When it could be focused else where.

For now though

Bold/ unvote bold/

Far from suspicion of him being time wasted, I think it's the only solid suspicion that makes sense at the moment. Going after inactives may thin the field but it's not likely to find us scum or the serial killer. 

 

I have reservations about Kevin, but not enough to place a vote on him at this time. 

It's the paradox of Kevin's position: his reputation gives him a defense he has stuck to, that let him essentially lay low and everyone accepted it. I've listed my analysis a few times now - it's ultimately up to everyone else to decide if makes sense to them or not. 

 

I'd like to see input from Kaziocore before the day ends; his prior post suggested he'd be online tonight and able to post. 

I'd also like to hear from NickTheGreat... I think i saw him in #ironfist the other day, so he's been online - just not here.

 

We don't have much time left in the day. My analysis makes me suspect KevinH very strongly. Simply lynching an inactive instead would seem a waste, giving the scum and the supposed serial killer their choice of targets for another night while probably just removing another townie. 

 

I see Kevin's list of last post dates and Shepard is indeed the most inactive. Ironically this vote list is the most helpful Kevin has been to date - the type of analysis he did last game with far less prodding than a wagon against him. Therefore I am suspicious of this bandwagon because KevinH is endorsing it with more effort than he has previously shown.  

 

If Commander Shepard is lynched and proves town, will those voting for him simply say "Well he was inactive, you can't blame us for picking him," meaning nothing will be gained from the lynch? I think there is more to be gained from lynching Kevin - it gives us something to test, based on one of the few solid facts we have - the scum's choice of kill. 

 

So the way I see it, there are three options here:

1. Someone joins me in lynching KevinH and we get to test the suspicion I have based on the analysis I've shown.

 

2. Someone joins the Commander Shepard wagon, and if he proves town (or the serial killer whose identity Scum do not know) that is a sign to lynch Kevin next. However if people are just going to excuse the result if Shepard is town by saying it's just an inactive, this is almost not worth doing at all. If Shepard is lynched, we need to use it as a test to learn something from the result.

 

3. Shift three votes to another inactive - NickTheGreat. He is not the one Kevin initially endorsed, and was not on the Rafay vote wagon. This is not an ideal solution - like Commander Shepard, anyone voting for Nick will be able to just say that Nick was inactive. However this has the advantage of not being the one Kevin proposed, meaning if Kevin is scum we might flush out his scum partner this way. I dont give too high of odds of success here though - as I've stated previously, I would tend to think inactives are more town. 

 

There are also other scenarios that we don't control, based on who gets killed overnight. If an inactive is lynched and then Kevin or I are killed, that will give the town information.

 

-Preston

People think they know something, but they don't.

 

The scum are among us.

 

If I'm lynched and revealed as a vanilla townie, then what?