You and your friends have decided to go to the rumored "haunted woods" for a Halloween camping trip. You set up camp and are just sitting down for some s'mores. You begin telling stories about past groups who have gone camping and have never been seen again. You wonder if you'll make it through the night...
 
 
Players:

• Nick the Great
• Imran
• Electric Mango
• Preston
• Montosh
• iSocialism
• Rafay
• Robert2424
• KevinH
• Dman3726 Commander Shepard
• Lyner
• Kaziocore

Still Alive (3/12)
 

Nick the Great

Montosh
Lyner
Kaziocore

 
Dead (9/12)

 

 

Rafay, 1-Shot town doctor was lynched on day 1.

Electric Mango Town Cop was night killed.

Imran Mafia Roleblocker was night killed.

Commander Shepard Vanilla townie was lynched on day 2.

Preston Vanilla townie was night killed.

Robert2424 Vanilla townie was night killed.

KevinH Vanilla townie was lynched.

Lyner, 1-shot town Roleblocker was night killed.

iSocialism Vanilla townie was night killed.

 

 

That's too much Lyner on a single post, Preston

And here I thought my multi-lyner posts were what people wanted me back for?

 

*bad pun* 

 

-Preston

I only voted for Preston cuz randomly I thought of lynching him..... 

I was expecting that Rafay would eventually post - maybe in a day or two if he was truly inactive - and finally explain that 'scummy feeling' he alluded to. What we've gotten instead seems to be a bit more interesting than that.

 

I only voted for Preston cuz randomly I thought of lynching him..... 

So it was a random vote?

 

Nope. I think I made pretty clear on who I wanna vote for.....

So it's not a random vote?

 

 

 

 

 

So this early vote for "You know why!!!!" is your "pretty clear on who you wanna vote for"? You haven't posted since the first page of this thread, and now we're on page 5! I'd assumed your earlier vote was a joke/random vote based on me being the mod in the previous game, but now I'm curious to hear more. Explain your thoughts please - this is arguably worse than Lyner's "Much scummy" on Robert. 

 

-Preston

 

 

You know just welcoming you back into the game......

 

And I'm just getting scummy feeling from you since the beginning.

 

Yeah, you're trying to justify it not being a random vote right here.

 

So I'm not sure all of these different posts of yours are consistent Rafay. Your first vote being random for "You know why!!!!" I'd completely believe was random. The fact that you then stuck with it as your "pretty clear on who you wanna vote for" and then tried to justify it with a vague "scummy feeling since the beginning" that you never elaborated on, made it not a random vote anymore. And now you're back to calling it a random vote again...? Going from random to a solid vote is believable and doable - going from solid back to claiming it was random just doesn't work. You can't have it both ways; you can't claim the defense of randomness once you've doubled down on it. Contradictions like this very much draw my suspicion.

 

I'm also concerned by your overt lurking. EM called you out for lurking, and then you had the very next post - barely an hour later! - to say "nope, not lurking"... that's kindof the definition of lurking, isnt it? Watching without posting and being able to respond that quickly to accusations isn't just being inactive. And since the pressure of having four votes worked to make you stop just reading and post again fairly quickly, it would seem you were lurking again to notice the pressure had happened - not a longer delay that mere inactivity would explain. 

 

I'll be interested in seeing if other people see this the same way, but based on the contradiction you just displayed and the lurking you've been doing, I am not inclined to remove my vote. 

 

-Preston

Nick the Great (0)

Imran (0)

Electric Mango (1) - KevinH

Preston (2) - Rafay, iSocialism

Montosh (1) - Dman3726

iSocialism (0)

Rafay (4) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston

Robert2424 (0)

KevinH (0)

Dman3726 (0) 

Lyner (1) - Montosh

Kaziocore (1) -  Electric Mango

No Lynch (1) -   Nick the Great

Not Voting (1) - Robert2424

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to reach majority and 4 to reach half majority.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-3.

 

Deadline is Rhivember, 25 2014 12:00 PM EST.

Rafay (4) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston

The pressure.

 

Rafay will say "I'm a townie, don't lynch me."

 

You will say, "We don't believe you."

 

Rafay gets lynched and is revealed to be a townie.

 

I will say "Only the scum would want to lynch a townie."

 

You will say "We're townies and we were scum-hunting."

 

In the end: one dead townie and no information.

 

Rafay is strange, not much posting done by him. And the fact that he have voted for Preston as a "joke" and haven't removed the vote does seem kind of strange.

 

I'm going to join the bad wagon, it may be a good idea or a bad idea. As of right now, I think we have some information, and voting patterns to go into day two

 

Vote; Rafay

 

 

Vote; Rafay

 

He can barely post to save himself, what good would be be hunting scum. Either he's a dead scum or a dead lurker, either way it's a win for the town.

So if one more person votes rafay he's out right?

Thoughts on replacing Dman?

 

@Nick, yes.

Thoughts on removing Dman:  Go for it, I've asked him a few times, and he doesn't want to play or be active in CN anymore.

Thoughts on removing Dman:  Go for it, I've asked him a few times, and he doesn't want to play or be active in CN anymore.

 

Ouch that he doesn't want to even be in CN anymore. Any idea what part of it didn't work for him? In either case though, a replacement will let the game be that much more active... hopefully, anyway. 

 

-Preston

Yep, replacement

Dman has been replaced by Commander Shepard.

Welcome Commander Shepard,  

 

 

Thoughts on removing Dman:  Go for it, I've asked him a few times, and he doesn't want to play or be active in CN anymore.

 

Ouch that he doesn't want to even be in CN anymore. Any idea what part of it didn't work for him? In either case though, a replacement will let the game be that much more active... hopefully, anyway. 

 

-Preston

 

and this isn't a shock to me, it's his 3rd nation since July, and I cant get him to keep with it.  I guess It's just not for him

 

Rafay (4) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston

The pressure.

 

Rafay will say "I'm a townie, don't lynch me."

 

You will say, "We don't believe you."

 

Rafay gets lynched and is revealed to be a townie.

 

I will say "Only the scum would want to lynch a townie."

 

You will say "We're townies and we were scum-hunting."

 

In the end: one dead townie and no information.

 

I am quite aware that you will say "I Told You So" if Rafay proves to be town. It's the inherent risk of lynching anyone on day 1.

 

Assuming 3 scum in this 12 person game, a random selection would have a 25% chance of finding scum on day 1, and a 75% chance of finding town. So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

 

With that said - Rafay's actions today have raised suspicion that would otherwise have to be debated for Day 2 and forward. He is not going to become LESS suspicious with time, short of someone roleclaiming and offering more concrete evidence. I'd hazard that such information will likely not be forthcoming until Day 3 at least - roleclaiming on day 2 isn't as common I believe, especially in a larger game like this one. And absent further information, we will be no better prepared to make such a decision on day 2 than we are now. We cannot wait forever. 

 

If Rafay is town, he has played in a suspicion-drawing manner that would only help the scum draw attention away from themselves. If he is scum, we'll have one less to worry about. 

 

The day has not ended because the final vote(s) have not been cast, so if Rafay has any further words in his defense now would be a good time for them. 

 

-Preston

Dman has been replaced by Commander Shepard.

 

Interesting new development. Good to have someone (hopefully) more active to replace Dman then. Here's hoping Commander Shepard posts soon! We've got a few days unless someone decides to hammer Rafay and end Day 1 early. 

 

 

-Preston

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

Welcome!

Hey Commander Shepard

So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it.

 

So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it.

 

 

Based on that theory, what would Scum do if we've actually picked out one of them in Rafay - would they leave their votes off, or join the bandwagon so they can claim to be town later? 

 

So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it.

 

 

lol....that doesnt even make sense. Theres 12 players and you need only 7 to lynch. Assuming theres 3 scum, there's still 2 townies who may vote differently. How does the scum stop 7 townies from lynching one of their own? Or even if there isn't an absolute majority, the scum can still get lynched with half majority at deadline.

 

 

So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it.

 

 

lol....that doesnt even make sense. Theres 12 players and you need only 7 to lynch. Assuming theres 3 scum, there's still 2 townies who may vote differently. How does the scum stop 7 townies from lynching one of their own? Or even if there isn't an absolute majority, the scum can still get lynched with half majority at deadline.

 

 

It makes *some* sense Imran. I think what Kevin means is that Scum wouldn't contribute to a wagon on day 1 to lynch one of their own - so that's three less votes that would support a lynch against scum, if all else were equal. It means any bandwagon would have to be built by the remaining 9 townies - either all 7 for a full majority lynch, or just 4 for a half-majority at day's end. He's not arguing that the scum can *prevent* one of their members from being lynched, merely that from a numbers perspective it's less probable. 

 

My 25% = 3/12 chance of a random lynch finding scum was intentionally a very raw estimate, ignoring all other considerations because you can very quickly overcomplicate it. If for example I exclude myself from that list (the one person I 100% *know* is town), 3/11 chance of finding scum would be 27% odds instead of 25%.

 

 

 

 

If we assign odds to every possible combination of votes to lynch someone and then exclude those votes where scum vote for other scum, then it *will* reduce the chance of scum being lynched versus non-scum. However such raw probabilities ignore aspects such as scum joining bandwagons or what otherwise appears 'safe' to vote for - i.e. all the intangibles that math would have a hard time taking into account. 

 

Consider what the scum could do if one of their own becomes the leading candidate for a lynch, no matter what day - if it's not 'safe' to fight for something/someone else, they could jump on the bandwagon to try and earn townie points when their dead teammate is revealed as scum. So if Rafay's lynch goes through and he proves to be scum, this does not mean that everyone who voted for him is town.

 

iSocialism and EM jumped on once we had the half-majority - this alone does not make them scum by any means, but it's worth noting for future analysis.

 

As for Rafay himself... there's no reason for to stop talking. Especially with Commander Shepard joining the game, add something to the conversation! Give us a reason to have doubt, defend yourself, explain yourself better than you have so far; the day is not over, so your lynch is not yet final. 

 

-Preston

Go ahead Lynch me.... see what happens.

 

Although 2 ppl have suddenly jumped on the wagon......

 

Unvote

 

Vote: Electric Mango. 

What Preston said.

I only voted for Preston cuz randomly I thought of lynching him..... 

 

What kind of Response is this crap?

 

Then You'll be sorry if you lynch me crap? I'm half tempted to place the vote just because you're not doing anything to contribute or even Defend yourself. 

 

 

So 75% chance of Kevin getting to say I Told You So.

It's more than that because the scum know who they are and won't let their own be lynched if they can help it.

 

 

Based on that theory, what would Scum do if we've actually picked out one of them in Rafay - would they leave their votes off, or join the bandwagon so they can claim to be town later? 

 

Well, rather depends on the scum player Preston. Scum would prefer to avoid a lynch a townie then own 10 out of 10 times. Unless there partner has no chance in which case voting for a scum partner would be called "Bussing". (I have no idea why its called that). its kind of like a scramble and smart tactic at the same time when you think about it though. Usually a tell if somebody attitude completely changes then lynching his/her scum buddy. 

 

 

Though, I personally don't like day 1 lynches, unless its painfully obvious or somebody is asking to be lynched till at least the very end of the day 1 phase. I'd be willing to put myself out there if nobody else is willing to hammer him if nothing else pops up and hammer him. 

 

@Rafay, Do you wish to put up any defense? or would you rather fall off the waterfall you're heading towards in a raft where you have an oar that could possibly save you.