Okay, back at home with an actual computer to review/reply. This has ended up being a fairly long post; please do read the below as I explain the thought process I have, instead of just jumping to the end and seeing who I voted for. 

 

I posted a brief response the other night, but to elaborate - Rafay did the town a huge disservice with how he played, doubly so with the power role he squandered. You really do have to be active and actually care about not being lynched to keep the town going. 

 

The town has now lost a 1-shot doctor and cop, and mafia lost a roleblocker. Losing the cop has hurt us the most... scum got very lucky with their kill. The combination of roleblocker and doctor roles seen do lend themselves to the idea that a Serial Killer is on the loose - i.e. both sides have a way to block a kill. Given the number of players, I'd assume town has 1 or 2 more power roles (the 1-shot is weak for a longer game), and scum may have 1 more. And then the serial killer themselves. The biggest danger is that if we're right about there being a serial killer, we now have very little way to find them even if we DO flush out both remaining scum...

 

There were six of us on the vote wagon, including myself:  Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango

 

Of those six, EM and Imran were were nightkilled. Imran's death is obviously due to some other role - current theory is a serial killer per above - but scum's choice to kill EM seems an odd one to me.

 

EM is a veteran player with good analysis - it makes sense to eliminate him. However, EM was also on the list that lynched Rafay and doubly suspicious for piling on the wagon at the end... he was already going to be suspected on day 2, and may well have been lynched if they hadn't killed him. Why would the scum want to REDUCE the number of townies they could reasonably expect to lynch and draw suspicion away from themselves...? If anything it was a poor decision because reducing that number from six to five raised the odds that Imran could be singled out of the list, since they could not know Imran would also be killed!

 

Consider the list of those who did NOT vote for Rafay - KevinH, Montosh, NickTheGreat, Commander Shepard, and Robert. Nick and Shepard are new (and Shepard has barely posted thus far, post more!), so using a night kill on them would have limited value. That leaves Robert, Montosh and Kevin as the more experienced players the scum COULD have killed to hurt the town without increasing the risk to Imran by shrinking the Rafay lynch list. Without intending disrespect to Montosh or Robert, I think Kevin is seen as the more attractive option for removal based on 'experienced player' value, similar to EM.

 

Before I continue this thought, I'm going to include Kaz and Kevin's quoted post below for context:

 

 

I told you so.

Got anymore input other than this.

Nobody knows Rafay is town except scum.

Rafay was acting scummy and the way he acted was disappointing.

This is not how you play as town. 

 

Based from the night kill, I'm pretty sure that the one of the killer is an SK.

Who would in the right mind, kill an experienced player as vigilante?

I think it's unlikely that there are redirectors and the like here

as I assume I'm the only mod who uses them in games lol.

 

I need time to reread the posts but on my initial readings, dman/commander shephard is probably town

because of Imran doesn't care that he will lynch him and I think iSocialism is leaning towards town even

though I disagree with him. Even on D1, he was suspecting Preston and suspecting an experienced player

is not something scum would usually do.

 

Also I'll be busy until Sunday because I'll be out of town because of work

although I'll probably have access to internet (I hope) :\

 

 

I've bolded Kaz's first paragraph for emphasis. And italicized the first line. 

 

We already expected KevinH's "I told you so" post. However reading back, for the entire first day he was supremely unhelpful - sounding like a broken record even given his normal no-lynch policy. He explicitly stated early on that he'd be accused of scumminess if he didn't vote no-lynch - perhaps true given his history/reputation, but it's also a perfect cover for him, isn't it? Imran (now confirmed scum) also all but endorsed Kevin's defense just before Day 1 ended:

 

kevin seems to be trying to live up to his reputation of always no-lynching on day 1 no matter how illogical it is. tbf, he will probably be accused of being scum if does vote to lynch someone on Day 1 

 

In the spirit of full disclosure, Imran also posted disagreeing with iSocialism's attack on me (Preston) and supporting the bandwagon against Rafay. I thanked Imran for his vote of confidence at the time, as he was supporting what I was saying about Rafay - but now we have to look at Imran's posts knowing that he was scum and knew Rafay was town. Imran agreeing with me supporting the lynch wagon that he ultimately joined makes sense... it's the fact he felt the need to explicitly comment on KevinH's defense at the end of Day 1 that draws my attention.

 

 

In the last game that I watched while modding, KevinH was seemingly FAR more helpful in terms of activity, analysis and other examinations of available information that helped the town. This game Kevin somehow ignored the poor way Rafay played and contradicted himself... evidence that others including EM (now confirmed town) took as compelling enough for the lynch - with not much opinion seeming to be offered on the matter. 

 

Consider the theory that if KevinH is scum, it would explain his ability to stick with the "no lynch" line despite the mounting evidence against Rafay everyone else was looking at (since they truly DID know nothing) - because Kevin-as-scum would know Rafay is town, and could then capitalize by throwing suspicion on the Rafay lynch list. However Kevin-as-scum would have to exclude himself as a night kill candidate... which would explain why the scum killed EM instead of Kevin, when Kevin would have otherwise been a far more attractive target due to his experience *and* staying off the Rafay lynch. 

 

I don't want to give Montosh or Robert a *completely* free pass here - but they at least were participating during day 1 more than Kevin was. Montosh not being scum-killed instead of EM I don't see as conclusive, due to EM's seniority/experience that may have been the deciding factor in who they wanted to target. The fact that Robert is saying to not give him a pass is interesting as well... I dont know if a scum would *remind* people that they were in favor of lynching someone who proved townie. 

 

iSoc has also posted some content, so let's respond to that:

 

Okay, lets get this talk going. I know a lot of people think that I'm a probable suspect, which I knew might happen. But I stuck my foot down, because there was just something about Rafay. Maybe it was because it was his first time playing. Anyways

 

out of the 6 on th Rafay's lynch two were killed. EM and Imran. EM was a cop and Im was a scum leaving us with 4 (Kaz, Lyner, iSo, and Preston).

 

I thinking that There is 3 scums as well, and I think one more was on the wagon, while the other one was off the wagon.

Kaz is in the clear, because he demanded input to Imran votings, iSo well... Lyner he;s normally is scum, but every game is different. However,

I'm led back to a person that caught my eye on day 1. Not to mention someone that Imran defended in a few of his post.

 

Vote; Preston

 

I think EM might have the ability to NK and choose Imran as his target, but not exactly sure if there is/isn't a sk.

 

First and foremost - EM is dead. He was the Town Cop - so therefore I don't know what to think of your last line where you say you think EM had an ability. If you meant someone other than EM, please clarify. 

 

Getting the talk going I agree with. Same with sticking your foot down - albeit in a belated manner, once Rafay was already at the half-majority mark and going to be lynched anyway. I agree that sometimes as town you have to be willing to be bold with your vote so that you're not seen as lurking and waiting for a wagon you can quietly join. 

 

 

I know that I caught your eye on day 1 due to my activity and trying to encourage others to make more use of the day. I said at the time that I appreciated your activity and better thought-out post, even if it was pointed at me - and I still stand by that. We need that kind of discussion or the scum (and now a potential serial killer!) will pick us off one or two at a time. 

 

It's possible another scum was on the wagon, and thus remaining among the four of us. Let's take a look at the list:

 

Lyner - I was looking at him on day 1 due to his vague "Much scummy" on Robert with minimal context since the rest of his post had been about other stuff. He failed to get one bandwagon started, and instead joined Kaz in pressuring Rafay to post before Rafay's playing made him more suspicious. 

 

Kaziocore - Started the lynch on Rafay, but overall I see him more as town due to his post content and activity level; townie levels of trying to figure things out. If Kaz turns out to be scum I'll be quite surprised indeed. 

 

iSocialism - Main datapoint on you is your bandwagoning Rafay after he reached the 4-vote half majority mark. You and EM both did this, and EM was killed; thusly you were worth looking at. However I can see this as a point both for and against you - pro side your willingness to be on record voting for an effectively already-lynched player, con side your bandwagoning someone who was ultimately proven townie. 

 

Preston - Myself. I saw Rafay's suspicious behavior Day 1 and contributed to the ultimately wrong bandwagon against him. I was quite vocal in analysis pointing out Rafay's contradictions, challenging him to explain his thoughts more. Obviously I defend myself as town, but I will acknowledge how I can be seen as having somewhat driven Rafay's lynch. As iSoc said earlier - "there was just something about Rafay" and I ended up "sticking my foot down" to take a solid stand and see what happened. 

 

Out of this list, if ANYONE is scum I'd waver between Lyner and iSoc... probably just Lyner as iSoc's actions are looking increasingly town, even if still pointed at me. 

 

However I do not want us to fall prey to the trap of assuming that the four remaining Rafay votes are exclusive list of suspects! Remember that the scum chose to kill EM, *knowing* it would reduce the list of Rafay voters to five and that Imran (scum) was on that list. The scum could NOT have known that Imran would also be killed, thus they were planning for a Day 2 debate where the five remaining voters would be heavily examined. If *two* scum were on that list - Imran and someone else - the increased risk of one of their own being lynched on Day 2 could override the benefit of taking EM out of the game as an experienced player, and I'd have expected someone else to have been lynched. Therefore we must consider people not from the Rafay bandwagon as valid targets as well.

 

When I wrote the other night on an iPad (and when it was harder to reread the thread), I was more looking at iSocialism - due to the fact that changed his stance and joined the bandwagon against Rafay once it already looked like a sure thing. With EM gone, iSocialism was my primary suspect. However with the rereading and analysis I've done today, I'm revising that to put KevinH at the top of my current scum list. 

 

Vote: KevinH

 

Sorry for the length of the preceding wall of text; hopefully it has been helpful!

 

-Preston

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I assumed that EM would still be able to cast his ability this last night before being killed?

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I assumed that EM would still be able to cast his ability this last night before being killed?

 

When d3mon posted that EM had been killed during Night 1, he listed EM's role as Town Cop. Unless the mod is messing with the game by renaming/changing the ability of established roles, the Town Cop is an investigative role - i.e. he messages the mod who he wants to investigate and receives a PM'd result back. If this is the role that EM had, it would not let him night kill - the name for that role is usually a Vigilante. 

 

I would assume that EM did indeed PM the mod to use his role during Night 1 - but since he was also killed during Night 1, he is not able to tell us what he learned. That's why there is a rule saying that after death, all you can post is a brief "Bah!" type message expressing frustration at having been killed, similar to what EM did. Otherwise you'd get people posting "last messages" after their death with whatever info they had, which would unbalance or break the game - case in point, a dead cop leaving a list of whoever they investigated and the results. 

 

-Preston

Okay, my mistake, I was think like a one-shot I might have gotten the two roles mixed up

"Rafay (6) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango"
 
Surprise, surprise.  A townie got lynched.
 
Now let's use all the information gained to hunt some scum.  Oh wait, there isn't any.
 
Could Rafay have defended himself better?  Probably.
Were his actions scummy? Not really.
 
It would have been better for the town to have an extra townie alive.
 
But even Electric Mango, with a cop role and knowing we could play follow the cop, chose to lynch.
So that sort of makes the FOS on everyone on the wagon weak.
 
But what else do we have?  Preston putting a vote on me and saying I was less helpful.
My suggested course of action would have given us an extra townie right now.
 
All the other dialog that went on during day 1 must have been more helpful.
How'd that work out for you?
 
We most likely have a serial killer among us.  I believe he would not have been on the lynch wagon so as not to draw attention to himself.
 
I'm going to vote for the player drawing the least amount of attention.
 
Vote: Commander Shepard

Aw shucks.

 

With his hands in his pockets, he kicks a small rock as he turns and walks away.

 

 

Also, obligatory

 

http://treasure.diylol.com/uploads/post/image/243498/resized_business-cat-meme-generator-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-bah-849fcb.jpg

@Kevin, so you're more worried finding the SK then the Mafia? 

Not "more worried" but "equally worried".  Both have a night kill.

 

Now that I think about it, maybe there are two different mafia factions.

thats....an interesting suggestion. Could make sense. Hard to tell these things without a story. 

EM is a veteran player with good analysis - it makes sense to eliminate him. However, EM was also on the list that lynched Rafay and doubly suspicious for piling on the wagon at the end... he was already going to be suspected on day 2, and may well have been lynched if they hadn't killed him. Why would the scum want to REDUCE the number of townies they could reasonably expect to lynch and draw suspicion away from themselves...? If anything it was a poor decision because reducing that number from six to five raised the odds that Imran could be singled out of the list, since they could not know Imran would also be killed!

 

Consider the list of those who did NOT vote for Rafay - KevinH, Montosh, NickTheGreat, Commander Shepard, and Robert. Nick and Shepard are new (and Shepard has barely posted thus far, post more!), so using a night kill on them would have limited value. That leaves Robert, Montosh and Kevin as the more experienced players the scum COULD have killed to hurt the town without increasing the risk to Imran by shrinking the Rafay lynch list. Without intending disrespect to Montosh or Robert, I think Kevin is seen as the more attractive option for removal based on 'experienced player' value, similar to EM.

 

Good one, I think you aren't in the mafia side

 

Also it makes sense, at the start of the night there are 6 people alive in the wagon, and 5 outside, them killing one inside the wagon will balance out the risk of scums getting caught in either side. Assuming that there are even number of members(maybe 2) in mafia side tho. And if we assume that there are only 2 mafias then chance is there would be no scum left inside the wagon.

 

 

 

Not "more worried" but "equally worried".  Both have a night kill.

 

Now that I think about it, maybe there are two different mafia factions.

 

Possible but unlikely by looking at the flavor text + color

Okay, my mistake, I was think like a one-shot I might have gotten the two roles mixed up

The one-shot Doc was Rafay as opposed to EM, who was just 'Town Cop' - either way, misunderstanding cleared up. 

 

"Rafay (6) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango"

 

Surprise, surprise.  A townie got lynched.

 

Now let's use all the information gained to hunt some scum.  Oh wait, there isn't any.

 

Could Rafay have defended himself better?  Probably.

Were his actions scummy? Not really.

 

It would have been better for the town to have an extra townie alive.

 

But even Electric Mango, with a cop role and knowing we could play follow the cop, chose to lynch.

So that sort of makes the FOS on everyone on the wagon weak.

 

But what else do we have?  Preston putting a vote on me and saying I was less helpful.

My suggested course of action would have given us an extra townie right now.

 

All the other dialog that went on during day 1 must have been more helpful.

How'd that work out for you?

 

We most likely have a serial killer among us.  I believe he would not have been on the lynch wagon so as not to draw attention to himself.

 

I'm going to vote for the player drawing the least amount of attention.

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

 

Glad to see some actual content from you Kevin. Especially since you didn't start the day with this, but only after I put a vote on you. I've already voiced the logic behind my suspicion of you in my prior post, so I won't rehash that - let's focus on what new content you've added.

 

You call out that it would have been better for the town to have an extra townie alive. Twice even, the second time reminding everyone that it was your suggested course of action. No one can argue that, at least from a numbers perspective, having another townie alive benefits the town - it's a self-evident statement. But I don't think you're doing yourself or the town any favors by continuing to harp on the fact that you consistently vote No-Lynch on Day 1. 

 

I disagree with your statement that Rafay's actions were not scummy - and based on the six of votes that he drew (plus non-vote input such as Robert's) - I am not alone in that assessment. Rafay alive on Day 2 would have been not just another townie, but another townie that had drawn a LOT of suspicion to himself through how he played. Being caught contradicting himself, visibly lurking and apathetic reaction to being nearly lynched are factors that would have been difficult to ignore. He very well may have been the day 2 lynch, at which point we'd know then exactly what we know now: Rafay was in fact town, albeit a poorly played one.

 

Until Rafay's towniness was resolved, he would have been a strong distraction to the town. The only way not lynching him could have worked out in the town's favor, is if either the serial killer or the scum decided to kill him themselves - using up their action to satisfy the town's curiosity. Which would have been a *very* poor move on the scum's part - maybe decent for a serial killer, but we didn't know there was one at the time. 

 

I think that we gained information by having the day draw out as long as we did - who lurked, who posted, who contributed, who took risks, and who tried to play it safe. If the topic sat silent for two weeks, no-lynch happened, and two people died at night... what would we have *done* with that information, without having gotten people to commit in some fashion and give us a framework to work from?

 

The one relevant point in your post is that the probable Serial Killer is probably trying to play it safe, and likely was not on the lynch wagon. That sounds like a reasonable statement. I drew a similar one in my prior post - that we should focus more on those NOT on the wagon this time around, given that we've already exposed one scum from it. 

 

About your vote for Commander Shepard - both he and Dman before him have been quite silent. I don't know if that's the stance someone with a potent role like a Serial Killer would take though... personally I'd find that exciting and want to stay alive as long as possible to use it. He could be genuinely inactive though; holiday season does get crazy.

 

For now I will keep my vote where it is - the scum's choice of killing EM has definitely drawn my attention to you, Kevin. Perhaps it was meant to, but that's a bit of a stretch for them to intend such a connection. I'd rather follow my suspicion through for now, instead of taking the easy route and bumping off an inactive. 

 

However - you're right in that Commander Shepard needs to get more active and post. We can ask for a prod, reminding him that the new day has started. We don't need silence from anyone right now.

 

Not "more worried" but "equally worried".  Both have a night kill.

 

Now that I think about it, maybe there are two different mafia factions.

Given that you preface this with "Now that I think about it", please explain what you see that would lend itself to there being two mafia factions? It's not out of the realm of possibility - neither is a Vigilante or some sort of "lynched players get a kill" mechanic - but it's easier to believe a Serial Killer at work instead of a Vigilante using their (presumably one) kill on night 1, or an elaborate rule to give a kill outside of individual roles.  

 

 

EM is a veteran player with good analysis - it makes sense to eliminate him. However, EM was also on the list that lynched Rafay and doubly suspicious for piling on the wagon at the end... he was already going to be suspected on day 2, and may well have been lynched if they hadn't killed him. Why would the scum want to REDUCE the number of townies they could reasonably expect to lynch and draw suspicion away from themselves...? If anything it was a poor decision because reducing that number from six to five raised the odds that Imran could be singled out of the list, since they could not know Imran would also be killed!

 

Consider the list of those who did NOT vote for Rafay - KevinH, Montosh, NickTheGreat, Commander Shepard, and Robert. Nick and Shepard are new (and Shepard has barely posted thus far, post more!), so using a night kill on them would have limited value. That leaves Robert, Montosh and Kevin as the more experienced players the scum COULD have killed to hurt the town without increasing the risk to Imran by shrinking the Rafay lynch list. Without intending disrespect to Montosh or Robert, I think Kevin is seen as the more attractive option for removal based on 'experienced player' value, similar to EM.

 

Good one, I think you aren't in the mafia side

 

Also it makes sense, at the start of the night there are 6 people alive in the wagon, and 5 outside, them killing one inside the wagon will balance out the risk of scums getting caught in either side. Assuming that there are even number of members(maybe 2) in mafia side tho. And if we assume that there are only 2 mafias then chance is there would be no scum left inside the wagon.

 

 

 

Not "more worried" but "equally worried".  Both have a night kill.

 

Now that I think about it, maybe there are two different mafia factions.

 

Possible but unlikely by looking at the flavor text + color

 

 

I would honestly assume three mafia instead of 2, for a 12-player game. You make an interesting point about the scum kill balancing the number of people inside and outside the wagon - I had not noticed that. I'm not sure how much that would have weighed into their decision, as having voted for a townie is still a reason for suspicion - but it's worth keeping in mind.

 

What I take from all the above posts however: we now have Kevin, Lyner and myself all looking outside the Rafay lynch wagon, with several valid reasons for doing so. I'm in agreement that at least one scum or the probable serial killer is probably found among those who weren't active in voting for Rafay.

 

-Preston

MOD: If you can find a replacement, please replace me. I'm currently busy with work and I'll only be available this coming Saturday.

MOD: If you can find a replacement, please replace me. I'm currently busy with work and I'll only be available this coming Saturday.

 

Ouch Kaz :-/ 

 

Combination of this and the newly declared war may make the game a little slow, but I'd rather not just cancel it. 

 

-Preston

War means more mafia checks.

I was thinking the same thing Kevin

War means more mafia checks.

 

I was thinking the same thing Kevin

 

If so then good - more activity in the game is needed. Shame to see Kaz saying he'll be inactive though - he's one of the few I think are more solidly town right now. 

 

-Preston

OK, moving forward.

 

We lost a cop and a doc but one bad guy killed another bad guy.

 

I think our last best hope is to get lucky with lynches and have the bad guys continue to kill each other.

Lol. We can hope they kill each other. But that's more guessing for the scum is actually scum. If that is there true intention to kill each other. They would likely even the decided to try to take aim at each other hit townies. So we are townies not caught in a gang war pretty much.

 

As for activity from me. My focus is the war. So I'll try to stay active.

OK, moving forward.

 

We lost a cop and a doc but one bad guy killed another bad guy.

 

I think our last best hope is to get lucky with lynches and have the bad guys continue to kill each other.

 

The unknown killer having found a scum is probably the only spot of good luck we've had this game. At this point I'm pretty much assuming a serial killer is the case until proven otherwise. Revealing one scum on the Rafay wagon allows us to debate how many others we'd expect are also on there - per my earlier statement, I'm guessing at least one if not both scum and probably the serial killer are left among those who weren't on the wagon. 

 

But yes - with our cop gone, this may boil down to a war of the killers where we see whether the scum or serial killer finds each other first. 

 

Ironically it's probably in the killer's best interest to go scumhunting with us... removing a threat to to themselves beyond the daily lynch. Though I'm not sure how fun it will be when/if all the scum are gone and it's just us trying to find a killer out of those remaining - really will seem to come down to a game of chance. 

 

-Preston

I really don't what's the next move and we have a lot of people being quite now, and this war is a good cover up for being inactive on this thread.

I really don't what's the next move and we have a lot of people being quite now, and this war is a good cover up for being inactive on this thread.

 

This is sadly true - for all that, as you and Kevin put it, the war SHOULD have people checking the forums more often. 

 

If we can't even get enough people to discuss or really vote, I'm starting to wonder if we really should just end the game on account of war. 

 

-Preston

When in doubt, kill the inactives before they plague us later

 

 

 

Unless you guys have a better plan?

Keep playing.  This is the real fun.

 

Lynching inactives is as good a strategy as any.

Lynching inactives are good, getting info from how people act and vote is better though. 

Do you think its time for Mass PRODs?

 

@Kazio, if you will be back Saturday then I don't think we need to replace you.