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The Camping Site - Mafia Game thread

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Preston is pushing awfully hard for a Kevin lynch. Just saying. 

 

He does indeed

 

He is right tho, we only have three viable options to end the day

 

 

 

 

Who do you think is scum, Kevin?

Sorry guys, I'm back.  I haven't seen anything since Nov. 30th, so can someone please try to summarize the happenings rather than me reading it all?

Rafay (6) - Kaziocore, Lyner, Imran, Preston, iSocialism, Electric Mango

KevinH (2) - Preston, Lyner

 

Whom do I think are most likely to be scum and whom do I think we should lynch?

 

 

Here's my ordered list:

  1. Commander Shepard most inactive and won't be there to help town when needed
  2. Preston lynched Rafay and is trying hard to lynch an active claimed vanilla townie
  3. Lyner lynched Rafay and is sticking with Preston
  4. Kaziocore lynched Rafay
  5. iSocialism lynched Rafay
  6. Nick the Great nothing suspicious
  7. Montosh nothing suspicious
  8. Robert2424 nothing suspicious

Preston is pushing awfully hard for a Kevin lynch. Just saying. 

I am indeed pushing hard for the only scum candidate that fits the facts as I see them, and I have been very open about my logic behind this. Kevin's experience and reputation-based defense are such that people give him the benefit of the doubt and are hesitant to vote for him, as though such things mean he could not be scum this game. I know this is an uphill battle, but I'd rather keep pushing for a candidate based on actual facts/events as opposed to defaulting to lynching an inactive, as Kevin seems prone to doing. 

 

 

 

Sorry guys, I'm back.  I haven't seen anything since Nov. 30th, so can someone please try to summarize the happenings rather than me reading it all?

As Kaz said, you need to read the thread and make your own decision. Your return is good timing, given that I just threw out a potential shift from Commander Shepard to you. As I said in my prior post this was NOT ideal - I'd rather lynch Kevin himself to test my analysis - but you were both inactive and I didn't want to follow Kevin's lead against Shepard since I suspect him. 

 

 

 

People think they know something, but they don't.

 

The scum are among us.

 

If I'm lynched and revealed as a vanilla townie, then what?

Your being lynched will resolve your suspicion so that the town does not have it hanging over all future days' debate. If you are not lynched today or killed tonight, I will still suspect you tomorrow because the events that form the basis of my suspicion will not have changed. 
 
If you are revealed as town, that will of course be horrible. But if you are revealed as scum, it will leave the town that much safer. I'm also going to respond to your scum list below:
 

 

  1. Commander Shepard most inactive and won't be there to help town when needed
  2. Preston lynched Rafay and is trying hard to lynch an active claimed vanilla townie
  3. Lyner lynched Rafay and is sticking with Preston
  4. Kaziocore lynched Rafay
  5. iSocialism lynched Rafay
  6. Nick the Great nothing suspicious
  7. Montosh nothing suspicious
  8. Robert2424 nothing suspicious

 

First off - the fact that you are a 'claimed vanilla townie' carries absolutely zero weight. You list me because I have laid out arguments against you and am pushing to lynch you, but your no-role roleclaim doesn't make my suspecting you any different. Any scum can and will claim they are town up until they are lynched.

 

Earlier in the day, we discussed on the scum's choice of killing EM on the Rafay wagon and Imran being killed. The conclusion we reached - that Kevin seemed to support at the time - was low odds of another scum being on Rafay's wagon since killing EM would have left them a 2/5 chance of being found on Day 2. We also discussed the probability of the serial killer hiding off the lynch wagon too. But here you are reverting to just listing people who were on the wagon. What changed? Or did you forget the earlier scum-hunting analysis because you already *know* who the scum are?

 

Commander Shepard is inactive, but that's different from him being scummy unless you think it's a deliberate inactivity to avoid suspicion, and you have not stated that. If you want to change your stance and say you actually *suspect* Shepard instead of just looking for another candidate beside yourself, please do so. 

 

Montosh you voted for *after* he returned - I guess it was just for the attempted third vote? Because here you say there is nothing suspicious about him. Keeping yourself alive at the expense of another townie you claim to not suspect at all is an interesting tactic. 

 

As for Lyner following my lead; it makes sense you'd suspect the other vote against you. Not much more to say here. I suspected Lyner on Day 1 myself, prior to the mountain of suspicious behavior Rafay demonstrated. I am not saying he could not be scum - it is certainly possible he joined the Rafay wagon early on Day 1 and then had to stick with it, and similarly is joining my wagon now. But in light of the more compelling line of reasoning I have against Kevin, I want to test that first.

 

I am aware that I am playing quite aggressively at the moment. Aggressive or not, I'm being consistent and clear about what I am doing - sharing my analysis with what has been a largely inactive town and trying to spur some movement. However Kevin is trying to lead the town in lynching an inactive by default - a lynch that would give us NO information to pursue scum on later days, and that would give scum and the assumed serial killer another night's kill apiece before we get to try again. I see no reason to delay acting on my suspicion, so I'm playing boldly and not sitting on the sidelines. 

 

-Preston

Actual facts?

 

I challenge you to quote something that backs up the claim that I "seemed to support" the idea that 2 scum wouldn't be on a bandwagon.  The clever scum could easily all vote to lynch somebody and then claim that some of them had to be off the wagon.

 

Actual facts?

 

The town is better off with active players.  The scum would love to keep an inactive townie around.

 

Actual facts?

 

As a townie, it is in my and the town's best interest to keep myself alive.  My initial vote on Commander Shepard didn't seem to have any traction, and since I was the lynch leader I thought I'd move my vote to where someone might join.  However, I went looking at timestamps of posts and decided that the one really inactive player was the right choice and switched back.

 

Step back and consider that I'm really a vanilla townie.  What else would I be doing?

 

Preston does seem to be trying really hard to lynch Kevin, lol.  It's pretty suspicious.  

Actual facts?

 

I challenge you to quote something that backs up the claim that I "seemed to support" the idea that 2 scum wouldn't be on a bandwagon.  The clever scum could easily all vote to lynch somebody and then claim that some of them had to be off the wagon.

 

Actual facts?

 

The town is better off with active players.  The scum would love to keep an inactive townie around.

 

Actual facts?

 

As a townie, it is in my and the town's best interest to keep myself alive.  My initial vote on Commander Shepard didn't seem to have any traction, and since I was the lynch leader I thought I'd move my vote to where someone might join.  However, I went looking at timestamps of posts and decided that the one really inactive player was the right choice and switched back.

 

Step back and consider that I'm really a vanilla townie.  What else would I be doing?

 

This is your prior line that I referred to, wherein you supported the idea of looking for targets not on the lynch wagon.  You wrote this after my post detailing the theory I had that scum were less likely to be left on the wagon after Iman's death, giving your own reason to look for a lynch off of the wagon.

 

 

We most likely have a serial killer among us.  I believe he would not have been on the lynch wagon so as not to draw attention to himself.

 

My following post summed up what appeared to be an understanding at the time. No one spoke up to contradict this statement:

 

 

What I take from all the above posts however: we now have Kevin, Lyner and myself all looking outside the Rafay lynch wagon, with several valid reasons for doing so. I'm in agreement that at least one scum or the probable serial killer is probably found among those who weren't active in voting for Rafay.

 

 

Here is the statement from my post:

 

 

 

Earlier in the day, we discussed on the scum's choice of killing EM on the Rafay wagon and Imran being killed. The conclusion we reached - that Kevin seemed to support at the time - was low odds of another scum being on Rafay's wagon since killing EM would have left them a 2/5 chance of being found on Day 2. We also discussed the probability of the serial killer hiding off the lynch wagon too. But here you are reverting to just listing people who were on the wagon. What changed? Or did you forget the earlier scum-hunting analysis because you already *know* who the scum are?

 

Per above, you seemed to support looking off of the wagon for a serial killer per your above statement right after I had said the same thing - looking off the wagon for scum. The more explicit agreement that scum were probably not on the wagon was not from you - that sentiment was expressed by Lyner and later by Montosh as well. Certainly those you voted for afterward - Commander Shepard and Montosh - were both off the wagon. You also mentioned that since EM - the cop - chose to lynch Rafay instead of playing Follow-The-Cop, a FOS on the wagon would be weak. So to see you reverting to looking at the wagon again struck me as strange. 

 

With that said, you are correct in that I could have worded my statement more clearly. Your relatively sparse posts after the one I quoted never explicitly responded to my analysis or indeed to my statement that we seemed to be on the same page looking off the wagon; you commented that I was voting for you and later claimed vanilla townie, but never actually responded to any of the logic I gave the town to consider. 

 

Which, to answer your question, is what I would expect an actual vanilla townie to be doing - looking at arguments others are putting forward and responding to them, even if it's in a vote directed at you. I did it myself when iSocialism started the day by voting for me; I didn't attack him back or sarcastically ignore his post, I responded to him with to keep the conversation going. A good chunk of my theory that it was unlikely for scum to be remaining on the wagon came from my response to iSocialism's post when I broke down the four of us who remain. 

 

As Robert said earlier, getting info from how people act and vote is better than just lynching inactives. The town needs *constructive* conversation and debate; there's been relatively little of that until recently. Frankly I was about to give up on the game due to the inactivity that felt like I was making nearly every other post in an attempt to keep things moving. You're quite right that the town is better off with active players - but using inactivity as an excuse for a lynch wagon gives us no information. Every lynch needs to serve a purpose and give us more to work with on the next day. Lynching an inactive effectively throws away the town's daily lynch because no matter HOW the lynched player flips, all those who voted for them can just say they voted for an inactive and avoid all suspicion. 

 

As I just said in my prior post: yes I'm pushing hard for the only lynch candidate that makes sense to me right now. I know it's making me stand out; I'm not afraid of the spotlight and scrutiny. I personally feel I've made a detailed and reasonable argument - so it's a little frustrating to see that the town may end up lynching an inactive instead, seemingly out of feeling there are no better options! If I am killed at night, the town will be able to look back over everything I've said - so I have to get ALL of my thoughts out now. 

 

Is it so strange for a townie to push hard to lynch someone they truly think is scum? Suspect me for that if you like - if nothing else, you cannot say I am sitting on the sidelines and trying to avoid notice, or posting fluff to avoid committing myself to a position. 

 

-Preston

Whether there's a serial killer or another mafia faction, they would not be coordinating votes with the first mafia faction.

 

The real point is that remaining scum could be either on or off the wagon, and that the town shouldn't make too strong of an assumption about who's scummy based on the fact that one scum was on the wagon.

 

The fact is that a townie got lynched and that was a pro-scum action.  The problem is that even true townies wanted to lynch somebody.

 

If I'm lynched, I will flip townie.  Should the town then lynch the one that pressed hardest for my lynch?

those you voted for afterward - Commander Shepard and Montosh - were both off the wagon.

 

My reasons for voting them were not related to on/off the wagon; Commander Shepard for being inactive, Montosh for being the only other player with a vote on them at the time.

Whether there's a serial killer or another mafia faction, they would not be coordinating votes with the first mafia faction.

 

The real point is that remaining scum could be either on or off the wagon, and that the town shouldn't make too strong of an assumption about who's scummy based on the fact that one scum was on the wagon.

 

The fact is that a townie got lynched and that was a pro-scum action.  The problem is that even true townies wanted to lynch somebody.

 

If I'm lynched, I will flip townie.  Should the town then lynch the one that pressed hardest for my lynch?

 

Correct that in either of those cases they would not be able to coordinate votes. That has little to do with why we had been looking off the wagon for them however. 

 

In your post where you assumed a serial killer, you stated he would likely have not been on the lynch wagon so as to not draw attention to himself. 

 

The idea that scum are less likely to be on the wagon - not impossible but less likely - comes from not just Imran being found on the wagon, but Imran being found on the wagon *after* the scum had chosen to kill EM, who was on the wagon. As stated previously, I believe that the scum would not have killed someone else on the Rafay wagon if there were two of them on it, as it would have increased the risk that one of them would be lynched today. This suggests looking off the wagon for scum has a higher likelihood of finding them than looking for them on the wagon.

 

When combined with the independent likelihood that the serial killer is ALSO not on the wagon, it makes sense to look off the wagon because it increases the chance of finding one of them. I said this eight days ago, and continue saying it now: we want to find *both* the scum and the supposed serial killer, so let's lean towards the route that has a higher chance of finding both. 

 

With that said - Kevin has raised the idea of a second mafia group at least twice now. It's not impossible; in fact it's something he would *know* if he were scum and Imran being killed was NOT one of his partners. Given the game's setting the killer seemed more likely, but let's consider this idea more seriously given that Kevin has brought it up again.

 

For a single scum team I would assume 3 of them for a 12 person game... for two teams I would presume two teams of two? Much more than that and the game would be quite scum-heavy, even if they aren't coordinating. Imran was a scum power role; in the one-team scenario there might be one other on the same team. In the two-team scenario I would assume one role per team.

 

 

So if we are dealing with two scum teams and not scum + serial killer, it means both scum teams were content to kill someone on the Rafay wagon. It still makes little sense for EITHER scum team to kill EM if *both* of them were on the Rafay wagon - all of their eggs in one basket, and they shrink the size of the basket? Therefore in the two-team scenario we *could* still have another scum on the wagon - one from the team Imran was on - but both teams would likely have at least one scum OFF the wagon. This creates two scenarios: 2 scum off the wagon (one from each team) and 1 scum on the wagon (from the team Imran is not on), or 3 scum off the wagon (one whole team + Imran's partner) and 0 scum on the wagon. In either case, we have greater odds of finding scum by looking OFF the wagon at this point - look for the 2 or 3 scum instead of the 1 or 0. 

 

So bottom line - considering two scum teams with two each instead of a serial killer doesn't change much from the Town's perspective: we still have a higher chance of finding more anti-town players off the wagon than on it, due to the fact that both killing types targeted people ON the wagon. 

 

Finally, to respond to Kevin's last statement:

 

1. Your stating that you will flip townie is the same as your claiming a Vanilla Townie role - it just means that you, along with everyone else, claim to be town; not a surprise and nothing to change the analysis. I insist that I am town as well, and would flip town on death - does that change the opinion of people suspecting me for my aggressive posting style? 

 

2. Your specific question is whether the town should lynch me if you really ARE town after you are lynched. It would be a reasonable thing to assume the town would do, as it would answer the suspicion lingering over me after your death - the same reason that Rafay needed to be lynched to answer the question of his suspicious behavior, and why I am now pushing the lynch against you to answer the question of why the scum killed EM instead of you. I obviously could not just *accept* such a lynch - as you've said previously each townie must try to keep themselves alive - but I would understand the suspicion behind it. If Kevin proves town, my death would mean the *third* townie lynched this game... at which point combined with the nightly kills we'll either be at LYLO or have already lost. 

 

So where are we numbers-wise?

  • In either the 3-scum/1-killer case or the 2x 2-scum case, there would be 4 anti-town roles and 8 townies out of the starting 12. 
  • The scum (currently max of 2 after Imran's death, whether 2x2 or 1x3) need to equal the number of remaining players to win. The killer presumably needs the game to be 1:1 to win. 
  • We are currently at 6t:3a Town:Anti-town after the Day 1 lynch (town), and 1 town/1 anti-town killed last night. 
  • If today's lynch is town, we will be at 5t:3a.
  • If after that both kills tonight are town, we will then be at 3t:3a... but not yet gone because the anti-town sides are not combined.
  • If tomorrow's lynch in that scenario is ALSO town, we will be at 2t:3a - again not done because the anti-town sides are not combined, but at this point the town has lost even if the game is not over - it's only a question of which anti-town side comes out with the win. 
  • If one town and one anti-town dies that night, we would be at 1t:2a - one town and either one from each scum team or a scum and the serial killer. At that point there is no way for the town to win - no matter which anti-town dies, the town loses immediately after. 

If the two sides kill at least one of each other tonight, that will extend the town's chances this game - but it's all the more reason we can't waste time lynching the lone inactive at this point. 

 

 

those you voted for afterward - Commander Shepard and Montosh - were both off the wagon.

 

My reasons for voting them were not related to on/off the wagon; Commander Shepard for being inactive, Montosh for being the only other player with a vote on them at the time.

 

 

Commenting on what you WROTE: I know you voted for them for your own reasons, but them also being off the wagon is why I thought you were sticking with logic we had previously discussed. 

 

Commenting on HOW you wrote it: really? what's with the near-invisible text? There's no reason to hide what you wrote, and in fact it makes it really hard to quote you. I see no reasonable way this is a townie action; you more than anyone should know it's in the rules that invisible text is illegal, and also that "pretending to break the rules is the same as breaking the rules." This might fall under that, but frankly you being modkilled at this point would just destroy the whole day's discussion. I'd love the answer about your scumminess being answered without using up the town's lynch... but it would feel like a cheap way to end the game. 

 

-Preston

<snip>

I have to give townie points for this because it would be overkill if a scum was making an argument like this.

 

However, it's wrong.

 

The whole argument that the scum wouldn't kill someone on the wagon if they were on the wagon can be countered with the argument that they would do exactly that because nobody would suspect them. Classic WIFOM.

 

Your math has errors:

"... scum (currently max of 2 after Imran's death, whether 2x2 or 1x3)" should be max of 3.

You neglect the possibility that the 2 scum factions could kill each other in the night.

 

"... near-invisible text?" confuses me. Everything looks fine in my browser.

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]My reasons for voting them were not related to on/off the wagon; [/size][/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Commander Shepard for being inactive, Montosh for being the only other player with a vote on them at the time.[/size][/font][/color]

I have no idea how that happened.  

I use the "IP Board" theme so it looks fine to me.

If you are using "Carbon Orange" theme, then the forced color for the text won't contrast very well.

 

 

 

<snip>

I have to give townie points for this because it would be overkill if a scum was making an argument like this.

 

However, it's wrong.

 

The whole argument that the scum wouldn't kill someone on the wagon if they were on the wagon can be countered with the argument that they would do exactly that because nobody would suspect them. Classic WIFOM.

 

Your math has errors:

"... scum (currently max of 2 after Imran's death, whether 2x2 or 1x3)" should be max of 3.

You neglect the possibility that the 2 scum factions could kill each other in the night.

 

"... near-invisible text?" confuses me. Everything looks fine in my browser.

 

 

Night kill analysis is always WIFOM to an extent, but there are limits to some risks that it would make sense for the scum to take. It's reasonable to expect that after the Day 1 lynch flips town, on day 2 the town will focus on those who voted for them as the starting pool of lynch candidates; killing EM increased the odds that everyone else on the wagon would be lynched. Your own analysis ranking everyone on the wagon at the top supports this much at least. At least one scum was on the wagon, so they obviously accepted that risk. The fun part about this game is that the scum's plans were disrupted by a second kill that revealed one of them - something they could not have expected. Revealing Imran changed the discussion from "were there scum on the lynch wagon" to "are there likely any MORE scum on the lynch wagon."

 

As I said earlier in the day, I'm not just basing my target of you on the night kill analysis either - I'm factoring in Imran's endorsement of your defense, the way you played day 1 and the early part of day 2, and your rush to try and get 3 votes on Montosh earlier. With the cop gone I've got to base my vote on SOMETHING, and this is the best I can see for now. Unless you are killed overnight to settle the matter, I will suspect you tomorrow regardless. I would much rather settle it today. It's up to the rest of the town to decide if what I've laid out makes sense, and vote their own feelings on the matter. 

 

As for the math: when I say 'max of two', I'm referring to the maximum team size currently possible for a scum team, as opposed to the total scum remaining. If there was a single 3-person scum team it is now down to 2 because Imran was killed; if there were 2x two-person scum teams then one is down to one member and the other still has both. The max team size matters because that's what their win condition depends on. 

 
I commented at the end how the two sides killing each other at night would help town and extend the game, but for the numbers I focused on the worst possible case to show how close we could really be to an end-game scenario. However you're correct in that I didn't comment on the idea that both sides could *completely* kill each other off simultaneously such that the town wins without ever lynching one of them - that seems a bit too optimistic. Hell of a way for the game to end if it went that way though!
 
So here's another question, somewhat mirroring your earlier one: if we lynch Shepard as just an inactive and he flips town, how do you expect Day 3 will proceed - especially given how little time we may have given the two-kill-per-night rate this game? We *might* get lucky and see another scum death among the night kills, but absent that what more information would we have to go on? 
 
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]My reasons for voting them were not related to on/off the wagon; [/size][/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Commander Shepard for being inactive, Montosh for being the only other player with a vote on them at the time.[/size][/font][/color]

I have no idea how that happened.  

I use the "IP Board" theme so it looks fine to me.

If you are using "Carbon Orange" theme, then the forced color for the text won't contrast very well.

 

 

 

I haven't changed the settings on my forums in forever, so it always looks like this orange and grey to me - I think this is the default. Your text, however it happened, is almost invisible on the normal background and completely invisible on the quote block background. This is the only post of yours to have been affected like that; everything else followed the normal color scheme. 

 

I'll be the first to say that the text editor is buggy - it does wierd stuff with the size of what I write mid-post - so I'd hope this can be ignored. As I said, a modkill would be anticlimactic at this point. 

 

-Preston

We've got two more days til the extended deadline; please let's get everyone else posting and weighing in on the debate.

 

I'm looking at Kaz in particular; you were able to post a request to extend the game, and I'm glad you did - but please contribute during the time you've bought us. I frankly think Kaz is town because scum would have benefited from the day ending without a lynch at all. 

 

-Preston

Okay so here are my thoughts.
 
--- Town ---
 
Lyner - well I'm leaning towards town for Lyner. I somehow like his posts (with the exception of some of his lulzy posts :/ )
He voted Rafay to pressure him instead of just talking on D1 and although he acknowledged that he may vote for an inactive player,
he voted for KevinH to gain data.
 
Nick the Great - leans toward town for me. My gut tells me he's probably town noob than scum noob.
 
Preston - I think I'm confident to say that he is probably town. I find it unlikely for a person with a scum mindset to scumhunt like him.
Correct me if I'm wrong but most likely the player that is too enthusiastic in hunting scum is town in this forums.
We have a lot of instances where the game is plagued by inactive players and so all the mafia would do is lurk slightly but
post more than the very inactive players. Everyone would then join at the instant that 
someone recommends to vote for an inactive player at the last minute.
 
Robert2424 - gut feel is town
 
--- No Idea ---
 
Montosh - nothing really special comes to mind when I'm reading his posts :\
 
Dman3726 Commander Shepard - I have no freaking clue what this slot is leaning towards tl :\
 
--- Scum ---
 
iSocialism - After rereading everything he's leaning scum for me compared to the other players. On Day 1, he finds Preston suspicious but then joins the wagon on Rafay anyway where Preston is part of. I'm not sure what he's thinking there. Right now he's voting for Preston again based on Preston's eagerness to lynch his suspect (well everyone should be eager to lynch their suspects)
 
KevinH - Preston made a pretty solid case on KevinH but here are some of my thoughts on KevinH.
 
1. This is hard not to notice. Imran is defending KevinH unnecessarily.

kevin seems to be trying to live up to his reputation of always no-lynching on day 1 no matter how illogical it is. tbf, he will probably be accused of being scum if does vote to lynch someone on Day 1 :lol:

 
2. KevinH insistence on voting the inactive players on D2 is indicative that he's finding a scapegoat and not scum.
It's easier for scum to convince the town in lynching an inactive player than making a case on an active player.
 
3. Too much fluff post and sound like a broken record especially on D1 ~ Not scummy per se
 
4. Possibly to divert attention on him. I'm not sure why he's focusing on the SK when we just flipped Imran as scum.

We have more leads to go after there than in finding the SK. It's scum's interest to eliminate SK if given the chance.

We most likely have a serial killer among us.  I believe he would not have been on the lynch wagon so as not to draw attention to himself.
 
I'm going to vote for the player drawing the least amount of attention.
 
Vote: Commander Shepard

 
Well I do have reservations because there are some problems with KevinH that is attributed to poor logic but it does makes it easier to vote for him :/
He's still the scummiest player right now so

 

Vote: KevinH

----------
PS: I wrote this at 2:00 or 3:00 AM so this post would probably have misspellings and grammatical errors :V

Will read stuff again when I have a clearer mind after sleeping ;\

Since the activity has increased. I am extending the deadline to December 13 12 AM EST.

 

That gives me 27 hours to plead with those that haven't voted yet.

 

If I'm lynched, it's a townie gone.  

With Commander Shepard still in the game, it's a lost vote for tomorrow's lynch.

The scum will get a couple kills in and there won't be much of a chance for townies to have a successful lynch tomorrow.

You really don't want to hear me say "I told you so" again, do you?

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