Ok I have caught up with most of the last 3 pages.
I am confused.
Preston is basing his suspicion list on who bandwagoned on a No-Lynch vote? Why would the scum ever want to bandwagon to end the day with no lynches. Lynching is good for scum as long as its not their guy getting lynched. We look at bandwagons closely because normally its a townie getting lynched but I have to say this is the first time I have seen voting based on No Lynch bandwagon.
Dont get me wrong. I have never supported a No Lynch on Day 1 ( I believe I have never ever voted for a No Lynch in any game I have played). The reason is simple, We get no information for a No Lynch day with no bandwagons on how people voted for analysis later on. You may say this is exactly why the scum wants to end the day early by bandwagoning on the No Lynch vote. But to me, that seems like over analysing and missing looking at the game from the perspective of the scum. Sure, its good to have a day where no one got any info but the better scenario for them is to lynch a Townie. That makes them go closer to winning the game. No information from no lynching is secondary in priority. However, scum dont want to overplay their hand by pushing for lynching someone on Day 1 and would settle for a No Lynch if thats what the townies want.
But now Preston is saying Scum are the one bandwagoning to get a No Lynch through. That just sounds crazy to me.
I believe Preston is extremely experienced in the game and I cant see why he is pushing such an argument and taking the day off to a tangent.
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Vote: Preston
As I said to EM just a few posts back, I agree it's strangely backwards that a no-lynch wagon has become a source of suspicion. Had those same votes built over a longer span of time, with people agreeing to it and discussion happening, it would not have drawn half as much attention. As it stands, it's the sheer speed with which the wagon built and the fact that it nearly ended the day that's drawn attention - highly unusual, so I don't think this is a tangent at all - especially since I'm not alone in looking at this. I'd be more surprised if you think the no-lynch wagon reaching 6 votes within the first ~12 hours is NOT significant. I am not basing my suspicion on EVERYONE who jumped on the no-lynch wagon; rather I am focusing on those who nearly took the wagon to its completion after the day had barely started.
Normally day 1 starts with a few random votes on people that don't go anywhere, before settling on either a lynch target that's inactive or has acted scummy, or perhaps on no-lynch. Before the day ends in whatever way, there is discussion that may help future analysis - and more importantly helps town power roles decide who to investigate/defend/block/etc. Normally SOME discussion is a given before any vote even reaches the half-majority mark, let alone L-1.
This has not been a normal day - and it very nearly did not last an entire day, either. Any town role usage would have been completely random, unable to tell not just who voted for whom, but who lurked/was inactive/was present at all. Maybe I'm not thinking like scum, but I'd think they would see that as a victory even without a townie lynch - they'd get their pick of who to kill at night, and we'd start Day 2 with one less townie. At least with a lynch vote you get to look at the people who were on the wagon as a list of suspects for Day 2; with a night kill you have nothing.
You seem to support some of this idea in your own response (emphasis added):
Dont get me wrong. I have never supported a No Lynch on Day 1 ( I believe I have never ever voted for a No Lynch in any game I have played). The reason is simple, We get no information for a No Lynch day with no bandwagons on how people voted for analysis later on. You may say this is exactly why the scum wants to end the day early by bandwagoning on the No Lynch vote. But to me, that seems like over analysing and missing looking at the game from the perspective of the scum. Sure, its good to have a day where no one got any info but the better scenario for them is to lynch a Townie. That makes them go closer to winning the game. No information from no lynching is secondary in priority. However, scum dont want to overplay their hand by pushing for lynching someone on Day 1 and would settle for a No Lynch if thats what the townies want.
I'm largely of the same mind as you with regards to not liking a Day 1 no-lynch, for all the reasons you list. I bolded your last line because I think it's the key here: the last votes on the wagon could well be scum playing it safe by doing what other townies wanted, and trying to get to their night kill faster. No day 1 wagon or discussion equals no reason for any scum to stick out; the perfect cover, especially with everyone saying it would have been done as a tribute to KevinH.
I also paid attention to who those last votes were from: EM and Lyner. Both have played enough that neither could miss their votes were the 5th and 6th on the wagon, and as Kaz later reinforced both of them are historically in favor of a day 1 lynch too. So what's going on there? Lyner in particular hasn't said a word since his vote, while EM has moved on to vote for ABigDeer - initially for his saying "the goblins" repeatedly. Obviously this is Day 1 and suspicions people find tend to be thin - however I'm fairly comfortable with my vote where it is for now, because it's based on those who were rushing the day to an early end.
It may just come down to a value judgement where you think that no matter what the scum would prefer a day 1 lynch over an early end, and I think the scum would have preferred what they nearly got - and now they're having to deal with resuming a more normal day 1.
So do you think that the 6-vote wagon isn't something to pay attention to? Do you think there aren't any scum on that list, or that they wouldn't try to blend in there? Who are the most likely players to jump onto a no-lynch wagon once it starts to build - scum trying to avoid standing out, or townies who normally don't go for no-lynch themselves? These kinds of questions are what have me so focused on this line of reasoning.
As with the last game, this could be overanalysis - as could just about anything in Mafia, since figuring it out is the name of the game - but watching peoples' votes is one of the few REAL pieces of information available on day 1, and this has been a highly unusual day so far in terms of voting patterns. I'm going to stick with my suspicions for now.
-Preston
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. Pushy, however, I completely understand - ever since I started playing again, my play style has ended up somewhat aggressive. But it DOES get people talking, which is really the point. I hate when games go silent for days on end. 
