524 replies to this topic

[Nick The Great]

 

Just did a spy op on Robert2424 in CN, and failed.  Does that mean that he doesn't have a role?  I think he's a vanilla townie since i spied and got nothing.  That is how that works right?  I think CN is broken tho, therefore, Rob, what is there for Montosh to have gained with said trickery anyway?

Spy Op? Really now. 

 

Vote Nick The Great

 

Sound like treachery to me. I don't trust you guys.

 

bruh.  Spy Op? for real, obviously a joke lmao.  OMGUS

Vote: Robert2424

[Robert2424]

*GASP*

[Kaziocore]

 

Nothing cynical about trying something new Preston...... Hold your votes, I say!!

Trying new things is good, and I think a No-Lynch on day 1 seems new, as I dont think it is done often.  Either way, I think it's better to hold votes on No-Lynch until someone does something scummy.  

 

It's always better to vote for the most suspicious player even if the suspicion is still not much

because at least we know you're scum hunting and we know where you stand.

 

Also it's interesting that Electric Mango joined the no lynch wagon

when he's most of the time for a D1 lynch.

 

|:

http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/40375-kz-04-good-end-house-of-horrors/?p=622897

:|

 

Unvote: Lyner

Vote: Electric Mango

 

Also slight scum read for Lyner for joining the no lynch wagon

and for Rafay. His posts look like he will lurk and join the most

popular wagon.

 

Slight town for d3mon for unvoting no lynch.

[Kaziocore]

 

Nothing cynical about trying something new Preston...... Hold your votes, I say!!

Trying new things is good, and I think a No-Lynch on day 1 seems new, as I dont think it is done often.  Either way, I think it's better to hold votes on No-Lynch until someone does something scummy.  

 

There's a reason why it's uncommon to no lynch on day 1 as it decreases the odds of winning :\

[Kaziocore]

If you have something that is X-Shot, you only get to use it X times.

 

If it doesn't work (for any reason like roleblock, protection, or whatever), you have lost 1 of the uses.

 

In the night scene, I will indicate where arrows flew and whether they hit their mark or not.

 

Please don't read too much into the character names.  Lyner as Gandalf does not have wizard powers and Montosh as Bilbo cannot put on the One Ring and turn invisible.  Five Armies does not mean five factions in this game.

For the vote count, is it okay if you put the name of the player first and then

put the character name in brackets or parenthesis or something so that

it's the first thing we see?

[Robert2424]

 

 

Nothing cynical about trying something new Preston...... Hold your votes, I say!!

Trying new things is good, and I think a No-Lynch on day 1 seems new, as I dont think it is done often.  Either way, I think it's better to hold votes on No-Lynch until someone does something scummy.  

 

There's a reason why it's uncommon to no lynch on day 1 as it decreases the odds of winning :\

 

And, now I'd be waiting for the no lynch argument from Kevin, but he the mod. lol. 

[ABigDeer]

Kaz makes a good point. I don't think I've had a game where Mango ever advocated a no lynch strategy, he normally would make an aggressive move pretty early on to someone. But I haven't seen EM play as a scum so I'm unsure. As long as the day continues we will soon spot out the lone goblins waiting for the day to end, and appearing inactive.

[Robert2424]

EM always gives me a scummy vibe, so its annoying. 

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

• Robert2424, Beorn, (2): Montosh, Nick The Great
• D3mon, Thranduil, (1): Imran Ehsan
• Rafay, Radagast the Brown, (1): Preston
• Nick The Great, Girion, (1): Robert2424
• Electric Mango, Dain II Ironfoot, (1): Kaziocore
• Lyner, Gandalf the Grey, (0)
• ABigDeer, Bard the Bowman, (0)
• Imran Ehsan, Thorin Oakenshield, (0)
• Kaziocore, Legolas Greenleaf, (0)
• Montosh, Bilbo Baggins, (0)
• Preston, Bain, (0)
• TBRaiders, Gwaihir the Windlord, (0)

• No-Lynch (5): , TBRaiders, Rafay, Electric Mango, Lyner
• Not Voting (2): ABigDeer, , D3mon

Deadline is 1200 EST, Monday, January 12.

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch, or 4 at deadline.
 

[Rafay]

Well the past 2 Day-1 lynches didn't end up well for the town.....

[KevinH]

When arrows are shot at night and miss, the night scene will include information about why (think role-block, protection, etc).  

It obviously won't reveal who did it, but I'm giving fair warning that I'm going to disclose a little bit more information than usual.

[Preston]

Happy 2015 everyone! And it looks like a decent bit has been said since last I checked; hopefully you didn't skip out on some form of revelry

 

Alright, down to business...

I personally don't think you learn much before people start dying which is why the no-lynch on Day 1.  The scum only benefit from free lynches unless we get random lucky.  People voting for people right away comes across scummy to me and if you are not scum, you are just confusing the rest of us.

 

What Preston said has described pretty well the way I feel. I am usually one to join a no lynch train if that's what people want however the quicker the day goes the easier it is for the goblins, as nothing progressive happened on the day to bring any suspicion to anyone. And the goblins know this. It just gives them a free kill and day 2 will be what we should of already had a stab at on day 1.

I'll respond to these two together.

 

At minimum you want people to talk on Day 1 - and not just talk, but cement their positions with votes. You learn a surprising amount in terms of who supports whom and who jumped on what wagon when by seeing what people do - and we will need that information to make sense of whatever happens during Night 1, to fuel our discussion on Day 2. The problem is that if you give people the out of a no-lynch vote, it's impossible to distinguish between lurking scum and timid town.

 

The first few posts/pages of day 1 are almost always 'random' - in the sense that people are generally being silly and voting for obviously spurious reasons. This doesn't mean the votes truly ARE random, but people typically get a pass for the first part of the day until people start getting serious and deciding what to do. However random votes rarely go beyond the first 1 or 2 on a person; when a sizable bandwagon builds, that's a definite time to get serious and see who is trying to end the day. 

 

So let's look at this No-Lynch wagon that nearly ended the day barely 24 hours in:

 

 

• No-Lynch (5): Nick The Great, TBRaiders, Rafay, Electric Mango, Lyner

d3mon started the wagon as nearly the first post of the day. Voting for no-lynch in honor of KevinH, who cannot do so this game, is a common theme. Rafay putting the fourth vote on the wagon caught my attention, hence my vote there... but four votes is still L-3, so we had breathing room. Immediately afterward EM and Lyner jumped on the wagon and brought us to L-1. Lyner's vote was somewhat ironic in that he said "Now now, don't be hasty" as he placed the sixth vote. My focus is therefore now more on Lyner and EM - they've pushed the wagon further than Rafay did.

 

So now we come to the no-lynch debate itself. Arguments for No-lynch are almost always from a sheer numbers perspective; that the town benefits by having more townies alive is unquestionably true. If you ignore all context to be gained by seeing who votes for whom and assume the day's lynch is chosen purely at random, you have a higher chance of losing a townie than getting lucky and finding scum. But in practice lynches are NOT chosen at random - you get scum piling onto wagons, or someone does something that draws attention. Seeing who joins what wagon when is revealing information. 

 

Now I'll respond to few posts from Rafay, Nick and Kaz on this subject:

 

 

 

Nothing cynical about trying something new Preston...... Hold your votes, I say!!

Trying new things is good, and I think a No-Lynch on day 1 seems new, as I dont think it is done often.  Either way, I think it's better to hold votes on No-Lynch until someone does something scummy.  

 

It's always better to vote for the most suspicious player even if the suspicion is still not much

because at least we know you're scum hunting and we know where you stand.

 

Also it's interesting that Electric Mango joined the no lynch wagon

when he's most of the time for a D1 lynch.

 

|:

http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/40375-kz-04-good-end-house-of-horrors/?p=622897

:|

 

Unvote: Lyner

Vote: Electric Mango

 

Also slight scum read for Lyner for joining the no lynch wagon

and for Rafay. His posts look like he will lurk and join the most

popular wagon.

 

Slight town for d3mon for unvoting no lynch.

 

 

@Rafay and @Nick - I'm not sure what you mean by cynical, but you seem to use the word as meaning no reason not to do something different; i.e. no-lynch. Both of you agree that we should hold votes and not finish off the day with the no-lynch wagon, and I completely agree with that. In response to Nick, clear scum tells on Day 1 aren't exactly common so you cannot depend on them; instead you have to look for what people do that seems somewhat suspicious, and work with where people feel inconsistent. 

 

@Kaziocore - I largely agree with you that people should always be TRYING to find scum; you take whoever seems the most suspicious in your mind and put them in the front of your scum-list. I'm intrigued by EM's post you reference - just one example of him supporting D1 lynch in other games but not in this one. It is indeed a stance change this time around; what it MEANS obviously only EM knows. He could be scum playing it safe, or a cop KNOWING he has an investigative role and wanting time to use it. It doesn't make me suspect him less, but I'm focusing on Lyner for being the 6th vote more than EM on the 5th vote. 

 

 

 

Just did a spy op on Robert2424 in CN, and failed.  Does that mean that he doesn't have a role?  I think he's a vanilla townie since i spied and got nothing.  That is how that works right?  I think CN is broken tho, therefore, Rob, what is there for Montosh to have gained with said trickery anyway?

Spy Op? Really now. 

 

Vote Nick The Great

 

Sound like treachery to me. I don't trust you guys.

 

bruh.  Spy Op? for real, obviously a joke lmao.  OMGUS

Vote: Robert2424

 

... I'm not even sure what to say about this. Given that intra-alliance spying is a warnable offense in CN, it seems pretty obvious Nick was joking; though due to Nick's new-ish status I admittedly had a WTF moment where I actually wondered if he HAD done it. Robert's vote response and Nick's subsequent OMGUS vote are Day 1 silliness, but when the day nearly ended once already I'm done with the sillies for now. Except for this final one to demonstrate the transition:

 

 

When arrows are shot at night and miss, the night scene will include information about why (think role-block, protection, etc).  

It obviously won't reveal who did it, but I'm giving fair warning that I'm going to disclose a little bit more information than usual.

 

So the mod just clarified the rules for this game. THAT is interesting - and implies that we'll be getting some free info that a cop won't have to investigate or role claim for. We'll have to see what that looks like on Night 1 when it happens to really judge how useful it will be. It also implies that the mentioned roles (roleblocker/doctor) are probably in the game. What I worry about is that if THIS is the main source of information the mod intends us to have, we may not have a cop to work with.

 

I'll wrap this up by following my own analysis above and moving my vote accordingly.

Unvote

Vote: Lyner

Because he placed the 6th vote on the No-lynch wagon that very nearly ended the day. 

 

Okay, that's enough writing for me for now. Time for some New years' lunch

 

-Preston

[Electric Mango]

My No Lynch vote was just for fun since this is a KevinH modded game and he always votes for a Day 1 lynch. I will probably be throwing in a haiku at some time during this game as well .

[Electric Mango]

Unvote: NoLynch
Vote: ABigDeer

Something about his posts seem scummy to me. It's like he is trying too hard to make it seem like he is a townie. My spidey sense senses something sinister.

[Preston]

My No Lynch vote was just for fun since this is a KevinH modded game and he always votes for a Day 1 lynch. I will probably be throwing in a haiku at some time during this game as well .

You indeed referenced KevinH in your no-lynch post, and you're not alone in using him as no-lynch inspiration. Neither of these detract from the fact yours was the fifth vote on an existing wagon, so I've still got my eye on you. 

 

With that said, I have no doubt the mod will post haikus at various points for flavor - so I don't think you need to replace him in THAT aspect!

 

Unvote: NoLynch
Vote: ABigDeer

Something about his posts seem scummy to me. It's like he is trying too hard to make it seem like he is a townie. My spidey sense senses something sinister.

5-s alliteration aside, I'm curious what you're seeing. So let's take another look at ABigDeer based on your statement:

1. He had the first post after Kevin officially started the game; largely fluff with no vote. 

2. His second post was essentially a +1 to my earlier post, without a vote. 

3. His third post was a +1 to Kaz's suspicion about EM, though he hedges by saying he has not seen EM play as scum (??). Still no vote. 

 

At minimum ABD isn't staying silent - even if he has not placed a vote of his own yet. His concurrence with others' posts isn't entirely scummy, but I can see where EM could call it staying below the radar.

 

So 'spidey sense' justification aside, I wouldn't entirely call this a OMGUS vote by EM - doubly so because ABD hasn't actually voted yet. 

 

-Preston

[Robert2424]

I'd like to hear from more players, and a player I'd like to hear more from....

 

unvote

Vote Irman

[Robert2424]

honestly, I feel EM vote is misplaced. Course again, EM always feels scummy, so need other people to look at that one. I feel if bigdeer didn't mention EM, he wouldn't have received a vote from him. 

[Electric Mango]

What set me off about his posts is the way he keeps referencing "the goblins". He mentioned "the goblins" 3 times in his last two posts. To me it feels like he's trying too hard to imply he is on the towns side. It could be nothing but he is the only one doing it.

[ABigDeer]

My No Lynch vote was just for fun since this is a KevinH modded game and he always votes for a Day 1 lynch. I will probably be throwing in a haiku at some time during this game as well .

 

I still don't think this is 100% the case, and if we are to look at the last no lynches to be voted it is you and Lyner.

 

 

honestly, I feel EM vote is misplaced. Course again, EM always feels scummy, so need other people to look at that one. I feel if bigdeer didn't mention EM, he wouldn't have received a vote from him. 

 

Or he could be doing what he always does and sparks a reaction to hopefully nail a goblin on the head. The problem is however is that suspicion should be more targeted towards people who are inactive and making no contribution and letting the day continue to slide, while people are targeting others but themselves.

 

What set me off about his posts is the way he keeps referencing "the goblins". He mentioned "the goblins" 3 times in his last two posts. To me it feels like he's trying too hard to imply he is on the towns side. It could be nothing but he is the only one doing it.

 

This is true, it is feeling weird to keep referencing 'the goblins'. I just wanted to add some flavour into the game. If it bothers you I can stop

 

 

Now that a bit of the dust has settled I will say who I think should be looked at closely:

 

- Imran and Montosh because they've said virtually nothing all game except to vote once

- Lyner over EM for the no lynching, purely because he voted very soon after EM and it was almost the killing blow to the day

 

If Lyner comes and explains why and I can concede for now, then I will be waiting for Imran and Montosh to actually contribute.

[ABigDeer]

To add to the top quote, it just seemed like this whole  no lynch honor for Kevin thing should of been more easier on the mass no lynches at the break of dawn.