340 replies to this topic

[Commander Shepard]

His roots shall bind us. 

[Rafay]

Well obviously the mafia primed sum1. I think Duderonomy could be mafia as he was throwing around votes during D1.

[Duderonomy]

Well obviously the mafia primed sum1. I think Duderonomy could be mafia as he was throwing around votes during D1.

You wound me, good sir. Of course, you've also been voting for me since day 1.

 

I'm more inclined to be suspicious of anyone that was the 3rd vote last time. It's more advantageous for trees to not lynch anyone until they have a good notion of who is mafia. On day one, you have a 7/9 chance of lynching someone on your side. Hence why I changed my vote away from you so that I would not be the lynching vote.

 

It's advantageous for mafia to always lynch someone, especially if they know who the other mafia is. That's why I'm concerned with EM & Lyner. Of course, players don't always play perfectly, and I don't know enough about past behavior to predict your playstyles.

 

And of course there's the various mental games you can play by not voting optimally, but going through those gets tedious.

[Rafay]

It's advantageous for mafia to always lynch someone

 

 

Not necessarily in this game as you can prime all targets and light them up all at once.....

[Duderonomy]

 

It's advantageous for mafia to always lynch someone

 

 

Not necessarily in this game as you can prime all targets and light them up all at once.....

 

But you have to prime them one at a time. If mafia only depends on priming, then they get 1 tree a round max. If they prime & lynch, then they get 2 trees a round max. True, they'll lose the occasional primed tree, but that only drops them to 1 tree a round, which they would've gotten, anyway. Let me see if I can come up with a decision matrix. Pardon the formatting.

 

Mafia Decision Matrix 

                                                       Mafia                     Primed                   Not Primed

Proposed Lynch (trees killed)             1                             1                              2         

Chance                                              2/8                         1/8                            5/8

 

The mafia lynched scenario is the worst case scenario, and then they want a no lynch. So there's a 2/8 chance of that. The primed but also put up for lynch scenario is neutral for them; a lynched and primed tree doesn't affect their kill count per round. The not primed tree put up for a lynch is a best case scenario, because it means 2 trees are killed/set up for a kill in one round. There's a 5/8 chance of that if they can get enough support for a lynch in the second round. Odds are greater than even that mafia wants a lynch in the second round for optimal kill count. 

 

Trees should be concerned with keeping as many players around as possible. Why? Because the more players, the more winnable rounds. The more rounds, the more opportunity to ferret out mafia.

 

Tree decision matrix

                                         Winnable rounds played starting at 9 players

1 player killed/rd                      6

2 players killed/rd                    3

 

Given that we've just killed a non-primed tree, we've gone down to 5 winnable rounds (aka 4 more winnable rounds). That decreases every time we kill a non-primed tree. It goes up every time we kill mafia.

 

Now this assumes that mafia and trees know how to play optimally and that no tree has special knowledge on who is mafia. I haven't played enough with you guys to know who plays optimally and who just lynches people without concern for strategy.

[Road2Victory]

Whoa! A talking tree stump.

Dead men always tell tales

[Duderonomy]

Alright, given that my last post is likely to make this a no lynch round for trees (strategy) and arsonists (bluffing), let's shake things up with some analysis in a post I like to call:

 

Duderonomy's Circle of (Mis)Trust

 

Reasons to think a player besides me is an arsonist (weighted points)

Lynching Vote (3)

Advocated Lynching (3)

Voted (1)

Too Quiet (1)

No vote (-1)

Advocated Non-Vote (-2)

Stump & Tree (-10)

 

Alright, let's total some scores

Commander Shepard(-1+1)
Duderonomy (-10 because if you can't trust yourself who do you trust)
Duke Nukem (3+1)
Electric Mango(3+3)
iSocialism(1)
Lyner (3+3)
Rafay (1)
Road2Victory (-10)
Robert2424 (-1+1)

 

That leaves us with the following categories

Outside the circle

Electric Mango, Lyner, Duke Nukem

 

Looking inside the circle

iSocialism, Rafay

 

Edge of circle

Commander Shepard, Robert2424

 

Center of circle

The always right Duderonomy, Honorable Road2Victory

 

Please make baseless accusations now.

[Road2Victory]

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

[Duderonomy]

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

I'll be changing it eventually, anyway. That's largely a placeholder ATM. Still, I'm assuming that Duke Nukem played optimally at his role, and that a new player will continue to do so.

[Road2Victory]

 

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

I'll be changing it eventually, anyway. That's largely a placeholder ATM. Still, I'm assuming that Duke Nukem played optimally at his role, and that a new player will continue to do so.

 

Blah blah blah, its fun how dead men can talk 

[Duderonomy]

 

 

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

I'll be changing it eventually, anyway. That's largely a placeholder ATM. Still, I'm assuming that Duke Nukem played optimally at his role, and that a new player will continue to do so.

 

Blah blah blah, its fun how dead men can talk 

 

You win if we kill all of the arsonists, right? So you can still win even as a stump. Bonus is you are the only person in the game I can really trust. I have updated my circle to include you.

[Road2Victory]

 

 

 

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

I'll be changing it eventually, anyway. That's largely a placeholder ATM. Still, I'm assuming that Duke Nukem played optimally at his role, and that a new player will continue to do so.

 

Blah blah blah, its fun how dead men can talk 

 

You win if we kill all of the arsonists, right? So you can still win even as a stump. Bonus is you are the only person in the game I can really trust. I have updated my circle to include you.

 

Okay good, I feel like the last person who voted for me had something to say?

[Lyner]

Outside the circle

Electric Mango, Lyner, Duke Nukem

 

Me is sad

 

 

 

The sudden change in effort and view is interesting, feels like a different person than yesterday

 

It's an interesting read and all, but I disagree on the vital points:

 

Advocating no-lynch when there is no detection role from the town side, and there is an advantage of tree-stumps? Only scum would try to actively do that.

 

Another faulty point is the illusion that the more rounds we have then the more chance of town winning. With less trees, the chance of us getting a scum is getting higher too. We get more useful data if we lynch everyday instead of the random data we received if a no lynch happened.

 

 

 

Okay good, I feel like the last person who voted for me had something to say?

 

 

Not much to say other than the above reasons. I misjudged and we will not waste it

[Duderonomy]

 

 

 

 

Lol do you forget Duke Nukem doesn't play anymore lol 

I'll be changing it eventually, anyway. That's largely a placeholder ATM. Still, I'm assuming that Duke Nukem played optimally at his role, and that a new player will continue to do so.

 

Blah blah blah, its fun how dead men can talk 

 

You win if we kill all of the arsonists, right? So you can still win even as a stump. Bonus is you are the only person in the game I can really trust. I have updated my circle to include you.

 

Okay good, I feel like the last person who voted for me had something to say?

 

Well, Lyner certainly is outside the circle of trust. Well worth discussing his role in all of this. He certainly seems to be a more opportunistic voter, while I'm on the fence about Electric Mango.

[iSocialism]

I feel sorry for r2v, I think that he makes himself a good target. But right now he's un-targetable. My top suspects are one of each on each of the two wagons. I have pulled one from each that scratches my suspicion. Those are Duderonomy, he was making a case against r2v with little evidence behind it, and now I feel like he is trying to lead us to another lynch.

The second is EM, he quickly threw his vote on duderonomy claiming to just make things even. Yes EM is on my list while voting for the other person on my list. Suspicion not my final decisions.

[Road2Victory]

I feel sorry for r2v, I think that he makes himself a good target. But right now he's un-targetable. My top suspects are one of each on each of the two wagons. I have pulled one from each that scratches my suspicion. Those are Duderonomy, he was making a case against r2v with little evidence behind it, and now I feel like he is trying to lead us to another lynch.
The second is EM, he quickly threw his vote on duderonomy claiming to just make things even. Yes EM is on my list while voting for the other person on my list. Suspicion not my final decisions.

That is why I trust you with your reasoning before I got my trunk chopped off led by the arsonists. I don't know who they are, either the first person or last person are suspicious to me.

[Electric Mango]

I am more concerned about those not making a difference and trying to blend in.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Duderonomy (0):
Lyner (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Commander Shepard (0):
Rafay (0):
Duke Nukem (0)
iSocialism (0)
No lynch (1): Duderonomy

 
Not voting: Commander Shepard, Lyner, Rafay, Electric Mango, iSocialism, Duke Nukem, Robert2424
 
Tree Stump:

Road2Victory

 
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00 EDT Wednesday, October 7.

[Road2Victory]

I am more concerned about those not making a difference and trying to blend in.

Who are?

[Duderonomy]

 

Outside the circle

Electric Mango, Lyner, Duke Nukem

 

Me is sad

 

 

 

The sudden change in effort and view is interesting, feels like a different person than yesterday

 

It's an interesting read and all, but I disagree on the vital points:

 

Advocating no-lynch when there is no detection role from the town side, and there is an advantage of tree-stumps? Only scum would try to actively do that.

 

Another faulty point is the illusion that the more rounds we have then the more chance of town winning. With less trees, the chance of us getting a scum is getting higher too. We get more useful data if we lynch everyday instead of the random data we received if a no lynch happened.

 

I had zero info on the first round, not even prior games to refer back to. My goal as a tree (of course everyone is a "tree" at this point) was to flush out arsonists without harming my side too much. Voting in that round was about vote-baiting arsonists. I thought R2V's behavior fit an arsonist, I was wrong. I'll use that info in later games.

 

More info is better than less. More rounds yield more info through posts. More posts give better patterns. And this post of yours makes me more suspicious. That's also why I agree with Electric Mango that shorter and less informative posts arouse suspicion, because it could be someone afraid to tip their hands. Speculation is half the fun, and only the arsonists lose by speculation.

 

I feel sorry for r2v, I think that he makes himself a good target. But right now he's un-targetable. My top suspects are one of each on each of the two wagons. I have pulled one from each that scratches my suspicion. Those are Duderonomy, he was making a case against r2v with little evidence behind it, and now I feel like he is trying to lead us to another lynch.

The second is EM, he quickly threw his vote on duderonomy claiming to just make things even. Yes EM is on my list while voting for the other person on my list. Suspicion not my final decisions.

I explained my actions above. R2V was the first "third vote" (aka a vote that meant someone would get lynched). I'll remember next time that he's more interested in fun than strategy.

 

Oh, and I'd still like to see your vote R2V, even if it doesn't count. You're the only known honest player here, and your opinion could sway a few votes. Plus you have more experience with this game than I do.