462 replies to this topic

[Rafay]

And just for the sucker-punch line...Muslim states have had more Women head of states then from countries our friend Lys and Ccabal belong too. bohoo

 

Oh snap! Playa you just Trump'd the Trumpsters. 

[onbekende]

I am merely showing you the difference of what you believe, and what is reality. The huge mistake that Socialists make is they believe that life is fair... that's the stupidest thing anyone can ever think, and why you guys are all so miserable.

 

Wait what, socialists come from a "we need to help the less fortunate people" (or how you might interpret it wrongly: "we need to level the playing field"), how that would make them belief that life is fair is beyond me.

[Lysistrata]

The question of the day is.... What the hell is wrong with Jackson County Missouri?

 

What I want from the "Show Me State" is to show me a winner... on both sides.

 

The final vote in Missouri is being held up by Jackson County, with Trump and Clinton holding a .2% lead, yes that's 2 tenths of a point, in both races. I've never seen anything like it. Did someone die before signing off on the vote totals? I think Missouri just doesn't want to declare a winner. They think they are the Republican run Senate on an Obama Supreme Court nominee, or something. "Hey Man... the Constitution doesn't say we have to declare a winner". I'm holding off on things UNTIL I KNOW WHO WINS!

[Lysistrata]

All I can say about this little tidbit is that it's just plain frightening from my viewpoint.

[ccabal86]

"It's only a democracy as long as our guys win" LOL

[onbekende]

Hey CNBC is on your side!

 

Also the point of the democratic representation vs democratic society is actually spot on. Once in power your elected official can do fuck all

 

Anyway, what I remember from this one is the debate about "Needs majority delegates of 8 primary's/caucus" needs clarifying. It seems like some interpret that as "needs to have won 8 states" and others just go for "needs a majority of delegates of 8 states", which seems similar but has obvious differences. Same way about if said rule gets thrown out after a non +50% first vote occurs.

[Lysistrata]

"needs a majority of delegates of 8 states"

This is the rule, and it was put in place in 2012 to protect Mitt Romney from the rabid Ron Paul people. It can be changed just as easy. 

[onbekende]

aaaah, a "fresh rule", always fun when those come biting back :Dd

[Shahenshah]

What is contested convention? what happens? Is it like what they showed in House of Cards?

[Lysistrata]

What is contested convention? what happens? Is it like what they showed in House of Cards?

A contested convention is what happens when a candidate does not reach the majority delegate count... for Republicans that number is 1,237. When this happens, the delegates are bound to cast their vote for the candidate that won their support in the primary or caucus on the first ballot only... after that first vote they are free to support whoever they want. So Trump can win 1,046 delegates... not get 1,237 on the first round of voting... and then they can cast 1,486 delegate votes for Ted Cruz, or Mitt Romney, or Paul Ryan, or whoever they want. The Trump people would lose their minds. That's why this is so dangerous.

[TheSphinxOfDarkness]

All I can say about this little tidbit is that it's just plain frightening from my viewpoint.

I think this is the most frightening

[Rafay]

The Trump people would lose their minds. That's why this is so dangerous.

 

He did say that there'll be riots if he's not the nominee and personally as much as I dislike him, I think he deserves to get the nomination if he gets near 1237 delegates before the convention.

[onbekende]

Heard he and Dr Carson have now threatend with riots, swell. Someone explain to him that winning the most votes doesn't necesairly mean winning a majority.

 

anyway

 

[Lysistrata]

Well gang... Missouri is a mess and still has not been called, even though 100% of the vote has been counted. I think it's establishment attempting too starve Trump of delegates. Trump is ahead by roughly 1,700 votes, and it is significant because in Missouri, the winner is awarded 15 bonus delegates.

 

Trump had a very good night. Kasich finally won a state... his own. Cruz had a very bad night. Rubio dropped out.

 

Marco Rubio actually lost this back at the New Hampshire debate, when Chris Christie took him to school. Marco did a good job at creating the illusion that he shook it off and came back from it... but in reality, he never recovered. He then tried to play the Trump game and go hard personal on Trump... it didn't work because it's totally out of his character, and people didn't like that. Marco pulled out of the race. He lost his home state, quite badly. I hope he can pick up his career. I don't believe he enjoyed being a Senator.

 

Kasich won Ohio, and locked up 66 delegates that will not be going to Trump. Trump won Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri. Kasich is staying in the race, even though he has no possible way of winning. This is establishment strategy to keep Trump from winning the 1,237 needed delegates to lock up the nomination. They plan to take the nomination from him at the convention, and give it to someone else... and I don't believe it will be Ted Cruz. This is a really bad move for Republicans.

 

Current Delegate Count (is all over the place)...

 

Donald Trump - (CNN) 678

Ted Cruz - (CNN) 418

 

Needed to win - 1,237

 

Nate Silver at 538 has Trump at 691... I believe him over all of them.

[Rafay]

awarded 15 bonus delegates.

 

12? And rest according to congressional districts won.

 

Why is Missouri acting like stupid Florida? Its been stuck at 99% for 2 days.

 

Where does Kasich go from here? People are saying that he could do a strong showing in North East and Pennsylvania.

 

Trump will New York. Who do you guys think will win California?

[Lysistrata]

Where does Kasich go from here?

Kasich cannot win. He is staying in the race as a tool for establishment Republicans to suck delegates from Trump to deny him 1,237 delegates. At the convention, they will cast their first round of ballots, and Trump will come short of the 1,237. At that point, the delegates are now free to cast their votes for anyone they want... and it won't be Trump, or Cruz.

 

That is their plan anyway. If Trump wins 1,237 outright... I think they will put up a 3rd party candidate. Either way, they are pretty much saying that Hillary Clinton is better than Donald Trump. I think it's suicide. We shall see...

[Icewolf]

If you accept the view of the establishment, there are two views of the future. 

 

 

1. Clinton wins, spends 4 years by which point there are 12 years of democrat rule which is a good opportunity to put in place a strong Republican mainstream candidate (if they can find one this time), and also gives you 4 years to clear out the insanity of the Trump brigade. Then 8 years of the next Republican president. 

 

2. Trump wins, spends 4 years being the mouthpeice of Republicanism whilst systematically trashing the US economy and its allies if he actually implements the policies he is on, hands the democrats an overwhelming majority in 2020 and probably splits the party apart in the process. 

 

The alternatives are 4 years of a maniac with some republican influence, and then 8 years of democrat, or 4 years of democrat probably stalled by a Republican congress then 8 years of Republican. Its a fairly obvious choice. 

[Rafay]

At that point, the delegates are now free to cast their votes for anyone they want... and it won't be Trump, or Cruz.

 

So.... Kasich? There is no way in hell that he's gonna beat Hillary. Its gonna be like LBJ vs Goldwater or FDR vs pretty much anyone.

 

Maybe Ryan. I mean he has run for VP but will the voters get behind a man who didn't even work to get nominated? 

[Icewolf]

If you look at general election match up polls Kaisch outscores trump against hillary by about 15 points.

[Lysistrata]

If you accept the view of the establishment, there are two views of the future. 

I don't. A party that turns on their own front runner, and chastises their own electorate, will fail. The time to call out Donald Trump, and deem him an unacceptable candidate, was before allowing him on the debate stage. Once that happened, they cannot then turn back and claim he's an unacceptable candidate. This attitude comes from people that believe their power cannot be taken from them.

 

You somehow believe that Hillary Clinton is an acceptable candidate. You point at things that Trump has said that he wants to do, or things he has said that offend you. Can I get you a Kleenex? I can say the same thing about Hillary Clinton... plus I can point to things she has actually done on several occasions, that not only disqualify her from running for President... she should go to jail.

 

Arizona and Utah will be voting on Tuesday. I predict Trump will win Arizona easily... it's a border state, and they really want the wall. Now Utah is full of Mormons, and full of Conservatives... I don't know what they will do, but it's more friendly to Cruz. On the other hand, people really hate it when someone in Washington DC is telling them who to vote for, and tend to do the opposite. If Trump wins both he will still be on a strong track to get to 1,237... he's the only one left who can.

 

Donald Trump is not a threat to the American people. He is a threat to the Washington establishment, the lobbyists, the donors, and their cash cow gravy train that keeps us fighting over meaningless issues here... while they suck the life out of us over there. If there is one thing Trump has proven without a doubt, is the whole campaign finance issue is total bullshit. They have spent millions to take him down, and it has not worked. If they can beat him fair and square, that is fine. Actively trying to sabotage your own candidate... is the stupidest thing I have ever seen. They are terrified he will win.