761 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

I'm not really saying a no-lynch is pro-town. I actually think it provides less information than a lynch. I'm saying that some people will hide under this and say it's a pro-town move, and act like since they're voting no-lynch on d1 than "surely they can't be scum." Scum will follow the flow of the town, well at least an good/experience scum.

 

The town wants info and the scum always want more town gone. This can both be done by lynching. However, scum can't be too pushy for it, and they have to blend in. I'm thinking there is one scum within on the no-lynch wagon.

I don't want to nitpick but you've specifically suggested that no-lynch is a pro-town move ("[...] there might be one hiding in the no lynch wagon [...] to blend in and look like a pro-town player " - I've cut irrelevant parts, whole comment is in #168).

 

About "one scum on no-lynch wagon", why not two? Or zero? What if KevinH is a scum? He's always voting no-lynch - I don't think he'd change that habit if he were a scum. It's all unknown...I don't like the idea of setting our minds on an assumption that may or may not be correct.

Fun fact: everyone but Wolfpack (he wasn't playing then) that have voted no-lynch have also voted this way in previous TW's game (on the other hand CoD was town in both games and he voted differently).

 

 

As for KH comment:

- Don't award yourself just yet. Leave this to us.

- SM hasn't done much yet, wasn't much of the help either (but who was?). What I don't like is that assumption "one of the 5 is possibly scum" you've let yourself believe because ISoc suggested that.

[legoboyvdlp]

@ABT, KH -- indeed, this is no joke. 

It seems by tradition that Samus is ALWAYS killed on day 1 if he joins in as town, so if he survived, he must be scum. 

 

Of course, I am new, but on the other hand, I have seem several references to this tradition, and it makes sense.

[Ali bin Turban]

King, what exactly is scummy about me compared to others? Self proclaimed townie of the year and trying to start a bandwagon on me looks pretty freaking scummy. FOS at King H.

While I don't feel there's enough evidence (to be precise: any evidence) to vote on you yet, I'd say one vote is hardly a bandwagon.

[KevinH]

On Day 1, everyone who thinks they are scum-hunting are fooling themselves.  Nobody knows nothin' (except the scum).

 

Now it's Day 2.  Somebody knows something.

 

However, by revealing it, they put a target on on themselves; the scum will kill anyone with investigative powers.  So unless somebody has a special circumstance, I'm inclined to lynch an inactive -- they will only hurt us later in the game.  If Mazuurek happens to show up with a good role claim, then I'll adjust.

[iSocialism]

 

 

I don't want to nitpick but you've specifically suggested that no-lynch is a pro-town move ("[...] there might be one hiding in the no lynch wagon [...] to blend in and look like a pro-town player " - I've cut irrelevant parts, whole comment is in #168).

 

 

No! I said a scum would like to blend and look like a pro-town player. NOT, being on a no-lynch wagon makes you a pro-town player FACT!  My statement is saying that a scum will want to look like a pro-town player, and a scum move might be being on the lynch-wagon then saying "i'm not scum, look a voted no lynch on d1."  Either way, from what I meant to what you think I said/took from it. I don't see what your point is. why does this matter to you.

 

"I would also like to think that there might be one hiding in the no lynch wagon. I scum might want to push for a lynch, but he would also like to blend in and look like a pro-town player." is my actually statement. What's irrelevant about the part "but he would also like?"

 

Also ATLEAST one scum on the wagon.  I didn't say that earlier, but I would like to add that to stop further "nip-picking"

[SeaBeeGipson]

Off topic (sorry.)

Warrior - I'm going to need a replacement around the 1st. I can play until one is found.

[Wolfpacks]

Isn't a lurker someone who hides in the shadows waiting for a moment to turn calm into chaos, maybe that seat in the wagon is held by said lurker

Unvote myrrdin

Vote Mazuurek the man in the shadows

[Rhizoctonia]

 

 

If Myrrdin can't play, who will be his replacement?
Also Samus is alive D2, what type of sorcery is this? Hagrid gave his life to protect him.
 

Then we must assume that he is scum. Also, though CoD is experienced. I don't see him as the number one target. My first target wouldn't have been him, but close though. However, this game has a lot of mixed people/players in it. I know some of you might ask who would be my first target, and it would have been ABT.

My first thought was actually "Why CoD?"

We have a mixture of experienced and new players this game and I figured one of the better players (Samus, Rhizo, AbT, etc) would be the first lynch.
No offense to CoD if he's lurking, he is a good player. Scum just had better targets.
I'm with Rhizo on we have to start pressuring. I have a feeling scum has at least 1 new player in it just by the volume of new players in this game. I would say we shouldn't pressure the new guys first because it's hard to tell if they are acting scummy or just noob-like, but if someone can do the math to see how many mislynches we can risk, it may be a good start. (I don't know how to figure the numbers out.)

Also I do think we need to discuss the possibility of a X-Shot SK. There was only 1 death last night, so if a SK does exist, it'll probably be an X-shot.


P.s. the HP role playing is great, but if we keep ignoring any serious discussions we will probably be going into D3 without any vital information.

 

 

 

I appreciate the sentiment, but I certainly wouldn't classify myself as a good player, think my record so far shows I'm not.  First game I got caught killing N1 as a SK (imran guessed well), and 2nd game I was screwed because I was investigated and found to be Vanilla when it was a role madness game (though there were other people that would of came up vanilla who were back up roles).  Last game I actually lasted awhile, but we still lost, so I'm technically 0-3 for my mafia career lol.  

 

I am not sure what the take on CoD is.  He's won I think 5 Mafia games, so he knows what he's doing...maybe they were worried he was relatively quiet from his normal self and has an important role, or just his skill in Mafia.  I assume if Samus is town, they probably just wanted to let him play a bit...be a hit harsh yet again to be voted off so quickly.  Nothing CoD posted gave any clues to anything unfortunately.  ABT probably would of been my pick if I was scum, if he's town, since not much really went down D1 with votes.  I always have to be suspicious a bit of ABT, he's a good player and would know how to play scum well, so always gotta be careful with him, but so far he's been town for me or just playing a very good town scum.  The high target people that scum would probably want out quickly might be worth seeing what they voted Day 1.  Scum may not want to take out someone who was suspicious or voted someone and was right in fear it may shine suspicion on that person.

 

Gotta stop before it gets too long.  I gotta look back through and see who I can look to push a bit and see how they react.  Unfortunately we're not left with much, so if I have to I will go with a lurker because losing to them last game has made me want that to stop. 

On Day 1, everyone who thinks they are scum-hunting are fooling themselves.  Nobody knows nothin' (except the scum).

 

Now it's Day 2.  Somebody knows something.

 

However, by revealing it, they put a target on on themselves; the scum will kill anyone with investigative powers.  So unless somebody has a special circumstance, I'm inclined to lynch an inactive -- they will only hurt us later in the game.  If Mazuurek happens to show up with a good role claim, then I'll adjust.

 

 

Personally rather go a lurker then someone is inactive/not checking forums.  Those can be replaced hopefully.  

 

Isn't a lurker someone who hides in the shadows waiting for a moment to turn calm into chaos, maybe that seat in the wagon is held by said lurker

Unvote myrrdin

Vote Mazuurek the man in the shadows

 

Yes a lurker is someone who actively reads the topic or is active on forums but doesn't seem to ever post here.  Doesn't say anything to prevent saying the wrong thing.  

[SeaBeeGipson]

Well last game we lost due to my mistakes. I made about 3 of the 4 that hurt town. You live you learn.

As for SM, as I stated, there isn't much to go off of. CoD's death and our no lynch left us with barely any information. As of right now, I have a very small list of people who have done some scummy behavior to keep an eye on. I listed those people. (at this point though, everyone seems town. It's too early with too little information.) The vote on you isnt a wagon nor starting a wagon. It's simply me saying at this point, you're the one I'm keeping my eye on the most.

FoS: mazuurek.
We need more posts from you. If you are town, we'll need you to start pushing people and try to get something. Lurking just looks scummy.

[The Warrior]

Preston is replacing Myrrdin Emrys effective immediately.

[Finster Baby]

VOTE: Preston.

Welcome to the game.

[Preston]

VOTE: Preston.

Welcome to the game.

 
Well, that's one way ta do it! And here I was minding me own business while the owls deliver mail, when suddenly I get this howler showin' up and makin' a terrible racket - caught my attention RIGHT away I tell you! 
 
Now that the requisite flavor is dealt with, here are my thoughts as I catch up in no particular order as I read and re-read the thread stream-of-consciousness style...
 
I've missed Day 1's classic no-lynch debate and joke votes - not too sure that's a big loss I guess. 
 
We lost one townie overnight - not a power role, and I'm a little curious why CoD was picked given that there are other veterans here. The joke used to be that if either KevinH or Electric Mango was alive on day 2, one of them was scum - doubly so if the other was killed on the first night. So either some of the better target veterans are scum and CoD was a reasonable choice, or scum saw something CoD said on day 1 that caught their interest, or the scum team is new enough to not know who is a better target... there's a lot of possible reasons here. 
 
That said, with what I've skimmed so far of the day before my arrival... both Finster and KevinH have referenced asking people to role claim. I'm lazy tonight to find the specific posts, but it was to the effect of Finster saying "If anyone has night information now's the time to spill it." KevinH above first acknowledged that by roleclaiming information one would put a target on their back, and then in the next breath said that if Mazuurek shows up "with a good role claim" then he'll adjust. Neither of these are conclusive, but they caught my attention. 
 
Finster also brought up the serial killer slant which feels more a distraction than anything... I'll have to reread that whole exchange, but we had only one death last night - if we'd had TWO then I'd be far more likely to consider a SK as a possibility (and it would also have tipped the SK's hand pretty heavily). 
 
I also found it... curious, that KevinH gave Sister Midnight townie points for her cute owl spam post. The humor is certainly appreciated, but I don't see how that leads to towniness in itself. Maybe my memory is hazy, but I seem to recall KevinH being a bit more discerning than that once day 2 rolls around. 
 
King Hitler and Ali both have some longer list posts out. I'll give King some credit for his detailed per-person sheet thus far, but I did twitch a bit on seeing him awarding himself "Townie of the year" - anyone will be townie on their own list, but that felt a bit over the top there. Ali's list shows he seems to be taking the game seriously... but there's not a lot of meat to it aside from dismissing the SK possibility for now and asking Lego to not joke vote about Samus unless there's more rationale to it.
 
Which brings us back to one of our only solid bits of info thus far, the no-lynch list: KevinH, King Hitler, Finster Baby, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks. 

... I don't know that we can do too much with this. KevinH is a constant member of No-Lynch-Anon, and the others I don't have enough info to fully parse yet.

 

iSocialism correctly points out that voting no-lynch is typically a 'safe' town-looking move for anyone on day 1; it doesn't buy the scum another quick death to speed the game, but neither does it tip their hand any. However at the same time I find it odd that iSocialism started by saying that "there might be one hiding in the no-lynch wagon." That seems... something of an overly obvious statement. Go figure. 

 

I havent put together a coherent list of my thoughts on EVERYONE yet, but I think that at this time I'll be watching KevinH and Finster the most due to their testing the waters to see if someone will drop role info as I described above - it's the first impression I got upon reading the thread, and for now it's sticking with me. I know it's day 2 and this is when such info should possibly start coming out to inform town votes, but the way it was asked felt a little too blatant for my taste. I don't consider this enough for a FoS and certainly not enough for a vote yet - but those are my thoughts coming into the thread with fresh eyes.

 

And now, I need a lemon drop and a soft bed - too much more of this and I'll end up another library hermit with rotting eyes! Now where's that portrait, and what was the bloody password...

[Finster Baby]

Unvote

Hi Preston

KevinH do you have the latest posting stats? I'd like to see who is actually lurking since nobody seems to want to give out any kind of useful information.

[The Warrior]

"So -- after that obvious and disgusting bit of cheating --"
"Jordan!" growled Professor McGonagall.
"I mean, after that open and revolting foul --"
"Jordan, I'm warning you --"
"All right, all right. Flint nearly kills the Gryffindor Seeker, which could happen to anyone, I'm sure...."

 

Vote Count

Mazuurek (2): KevinH, Wolfpacks

Samus (1): legoboyvdlp

Sister Midnight (1): King Hitler

Ali bin Turban (0):

Finster Baby (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

King Hitler (0):

legoboyvdlp (0):

Lyner (0):

Preston (0):

Rafay (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Finster Baby, iSocialism, Lyner, Mazuurek, Preston, Rafay, Rhizoctonia, Samus, Sister Midnight

With 14 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Saturday, July 2nd.

 

 

Post Count:
                            

The Warrior 27

Wolfpacks 19

Finster Baby 19

Sister Midnight 19

Myrrdin Emrys 17

KevinH 16

Ali bin Turban 16

King Hitler 14

legoboyvdlp 10

Samus 9

iSocialism 7

Rhizoctonia 6

Lyner 6

Chaplain of death 5

Rafay 2

Preston 1

Mazuurek 1

[KevinH]

Preston 1

 

Preston is a lurker ...   ... but I'm glad to see him again!

I was not encouraging Mazuurek to role claim for the sake of getting information out; with only 1 post for the entire game it would take a role claim for me to change my vote.

 

Everybody please note that the deadline is in 4 days on Saturday and it's a long holiday weekend in the USA so be sure to get your votes posted early if you will be away.

 

[Finster Baby]

FOS: Rafay

Gotta love his lurking again.

[KevinH]

KevinH's SuperTownieAnalysis^TM:
 
Not voting to lynch on Day 1 (+1 townie point):

• Finster Baby, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

Top half of active posters (+1 townie point):

• Ali bin Turban, Finster Baby, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

Towniness of analytical posts (+1 townie point):

• Ali bin Turban, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Rhizoctonia

Bonus for extra good analysis (+1 townie point):

• KevinH, Preston

 

Final results

4 points, definitely townie:

• Preston, he must be a Gryffindor Student
• KevinH, because I am

3 points, most probably townie

• King Hitler, worth keeping around

2 points, most likely townie

• Ali bin Turban, I'll forgive a Day 1 vote on Rafay
• Finster Baby, looking for better analysis
• Rhizoctonia, activity in bottom half
• Sister Midnight, looking for better analysis
• Wolfpacks, voting for the best candidate at the moment

0 points, candidates to lynch (in order of activity)

• legoboyvdlp
• Samus
• iSocialism
• Lyner
• Rafay, second on my list to lynch
• Mazuurek, top of my list to lynch
   

[Lyner]

Sorry bros, this week's a busy one for me, give me one or two days to recover

[Sister Midnight]

KevinH's SuperTownieAnalysis^TM:
 
Not voting to lynch on Day 1 (+1 townie point):

• Finster Baby, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

Top half of active posters (+1 townie point):

• Ali bin Turban, Finster Baby, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

Towniness of analytical posts (+1 townie point):

• Ali bin Turban, KevinH, King Hitler, Preston, Rhizoctonia

Bonus for extra good analysis (+1 townie point):

• KevinH, Preston

 
Final results

4 points, definitely townie:

• Preston, he must be a Gryffindor Student
• KevinH, because I am

3 points, most probably townie

• King Hitler, worth keeping around

2 points, most likely townie

• Ali bin Turban, I'll forgive a Day 1 vote on Rafay
• Finster Baby, looking for better analysis
• Rhizoctonia, activity in bottom half
• Sister Midnight, looking for better analysis
• Wolfpacks, voting for the best candidate at the moment

0 points, candidates to lynch (in order of activity)

• legoboyvdlp
• Samus
• iSocialism
• Lyner
• Rafay, second on my list to lynch
• Mazuurek, top of my list to lynch
   

I thought I get a townie point for use of humor?

And why are you so positive about Preston? We have almost nothing about him aside from one, albeit very good, post.

[KevinH]

Preston is riding on the legacy of Myrrdin Emrys who didn't vote to lynch and was an active poster.

 

Bonus for being funny, active, and all-around awesome (+5 townie points)

• Sister Midnight

My analysis is better than nothing, but it's quite easy for a scum to have not voted Day 1, been active, and post analysis.

I estimate the correlation coefficient of my list to the true scum at 0.50001