761 replies to this topic

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

Ali bin Turban (4): KevinH, Finster Baby, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight

King Hitler (3): Preston, Samus, Lyner

Mazuurek (1): Wolfpacks

Finster Baby (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

Lyner (0):

Preston (0):

Samus (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, iSocialism, King Hitler

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Wednesday, July 20th.

[Wolfpacks]

everything KevinH has said so far points to Ali Bin Turban, I still can't get out of my mind what he said about the insane Cop, he said he might be the insane cop, turn that around means he is,
He said He investigated Ali Bin Turban and he was NOT a gryffindor student nor a hogwert staff member, but if you turn that around it means he is.
He also said he investigated Isocialism and preston and they are town, but working on the insane premise both of them must be scum.
He has now just said that Mazuurek is townie, I still say that the failed lynching on day 1 was because of Mazuurek being inactive, because of this Legoboy a known scum was eliminated and poor Rhizo who changed his vote condemned him

[KevinH]

Don't confuse things with the insane modifier.
All it means is that when I investigate, the proper results are reversed.
As a player, all my analysis is as good as anybody's.
 
Clearing Mazuurek was based on an assumption that I am not insane and that Ali bin Turban is truly scum.
If Ali bin Turban is not scum, then all bets are off regarding Mazuurek.
 
It does not make sense to me to vote King Hitler instead of Ali bin Turban.  If you think I'm insane, then Preston and iSocialism should be the logical targets.
 
Regarding the scumminess of King Hitler, all we have is a claim to be a 1-shot commuter followed by a claim to have tried to use it again.  While Lynch All Liars is a good policy, I think lynching an investigated scum is a better course of action.  

 

As far as King Hitler's actual "lie", I see no reason for the scum to do it.  It could be an innocent mistake by a scum or an innocent mistake by a townie.  Although, there is a case to be made that a scum couldn't keep his story straight.

 

Keep in mind that King Hitler was in on the lynch of Legoboy, Ali bin Turban is clearly a better choice to lynch.

[Samus]

But KH, what if Ali or KH have a special mafia kill ability? Ideally we would want to target them so it limits who on mafia can do that night kill and gives a tracker a higher chance of catching them

I'm still not convinced with the different results I got when tracking King Hitler N2

[Sister Midnight]

But KH, what if Ali or KH have a special mafia kill ability? Ideally we would want to target them so it limits who on mafia can do that night kill and gives a tracker a higher chance of catching them

I'm still not convinced with the different results I got when tracking King Hitler N2

 

Wait, you were all about lynching Ali.  How come you're voting king?

The quote thingy didn't work, that was for Samus.

[Ali bin Turban]

But KH, what if Ali or KH have a special mafia kill ability? Ideally we would want to target them so it limits who on mafia can do that night kill and gives a tracker a higher chance of catching them

I'm still not convinced with the different results I got when tracking King Hitler N2

I wasn't going to vote, but here you have a point. KH is evident scum and if he turns out as Framer there's a chance to prove my innocence.

 

vote King Hitler

 

everything KevinH has said so far points to Ali Bin Turban, I still can't get out of my mind what he said about the insane Cop...

He can't be insane cop. We could consider it in case KevinH got just two results (one town, one scum). But since he has three, being insane would mean he would have hit 2 scums which is probably as low as Framer/Cop hitting me through random choice at the same night.

[SeaBeeGipson]

"What is this magic?!"

[SeaBeeGipson]

If I was hypothetically scum, I'd then have knowledge of all the scum roles in this game, including my own. Hypothetically, who is to say everyone even has the correct amount of scum they believe to be in the game? Could be 4 left alive, could be 2.
Hypothetically, who is to also say we can ever find the Framer before we start lynching everyone? Does a Framer even exist? I think we need to ask ourselves these questions.

Again, I like where today is going. Made the game interesting.

[iSocialism]

Wow, after just one day of inactivity I got back and see I'm considered a scum . There can be just two options...well, 3 for everyone else.
 
 - I got framed: chance however is not very high if framing was done in a random manner: Framer would probably chose 4-5 people he felt could be dangerous, while cop would probably target 8-10 people (some were surely deemed as "not investigation worthy at this moment"). That would mean there were around 2% chances of this thing happening.
         However for more consistent results I could've been targeted by framer every night, which would make me turn scum with 100% chance when investigated by cop (within 3 nights time span that would be  25%-35% chance depending on cop preferences).
 
 - KevinH is not a Cop but rather a scum with some non lethal PR (like Framer or Scum Watcher for instance). He was in a difficult position after D3 and a very possible lynch candidate on D4...this however would be a risky move (since Cop is quite common PR). Even considering he would succeed in such gamble and win a very strong position in a Cop-less game, he would need to lead 3 miss lynches to win a game and people would start questioning him way before it happens. Therefore I don't consider it very probable, if at all.
 
 - 3rd option everyone else is considering is that I'm a scum - and this one is the most probable for all of you.
 
 
To be honest, if anyone else were in my position, I think I'd go with the most probable option and vote to lynch that guy. We are not in live or die situation and can afford to lynch one of our own. I've no role so nothing is lost anyway.

If you have no role then state the characters and the role. I figured you mean no useful role

[Lyner]

 

Yep KingH seems pretty much like a panicking scum right now
 
And Mazuurek starts to look more and more like a Rafay
 
 
Lynch AbT today, lynch KingH tomorrow
 
Vote: King Hitler

Wait - you say vote AbT today then vote KH?
That's not a real impassioned defense AbT...

I stick with my vote, with my very accusatory FoS pointed at King Hitler for tomorrow's kill.

 

 

Eh since AbT was only one vote away from the hanging, the vote on KH is just a reminder, consider it a FoS if you will. Wouldn't want to accidentally end the day

 

Today's best course of action is to lynch AbT, those who try to avoid proving Kevin's townieness should be suspected

[Preston]

Less time to post tonight, but to follow up:

Interesting to see Ali voting for King Hitler. Scum turning on each other, or something else? It's a little weird to see King Hitler saying he is LIKING the way today is going - after his flavor-seeming quote. Which, I think, was Prof. Quirrell in the book? Definitely one of the bad guys.

If Ali is a vanilla townie, then I agree with iSoc that he has nothing to lose by stating his character name line. If he is actually scum, he will find this more difficult.

KH's role fakery I cannot see serving any meaningful purpose as a townie, so that seems a fairly solid scum-tell to me. I would have no objection to voting for him over Ali to test out the framer theory. The alternative is to lynch Ali and test Kevin more directly. I'm good with either one.

What is strange is that while writing this post, I thought of one edge-case scenario where Kevin could be scum and Ali is town without needing a framer, as follows:
1) KevinH has some sort of a Mafia investigative role, and targeted iSocialism last night - Samus confirmed this.
2) A scum godfather is in play, and was told as part of their role PM what they would show up as - i.e. Gryffindor Student or Helpful Hogwarts Staff - telling them terms to enable a valid-seeming fakeclaim.

This scenario is far-fetched, but in light of Ali voting for King Hitler the brainstorm seems warranted. like this I think it is worth at least speaking it aloud. Lynching Ali is a very direct way to test this - if he flips scum then Kevin is proven and there was no framer needed (though one could still exist). If Ali flips town then 'what if' scenarios are going to pop up, whether there's a framer or some other explanation.

And for a second mid-post brainstorm - there's actually another scenario why Ali might be wanting KH lynched first if they are both scum, and that is if Ali is the "Mafia Encryptor" that allows them to daytalk. If there are three scum left alive, they might want to save the remaining two their ability to coordinate tomorrow. Though if there actually is a fourth scum... who would it be?

I guess the takeaway from this is, let's settle on which of these two scum candidates to lynch today - and before we finalize the lynch, let's think in advance about what will happen if each somehow flips town instead.

-Preston

[Samus]

But KH, what if Ali or KH have a special mafia kill ability? Ideally we would want to target them so it limits who on mafia can do that night kill and gives a tracker a higher chance of catching them
I'm still not convinced with the different results I got when tracking King Hitler N2

 
Wait, you were all about lynching Ali.  How come you're voting king?The quote thingy didn't work, that was for Samus.

I've been about lynching King hitler since D1

[Finster Baby]

As stated previously, lynching AbT today is the only way we will confirm whether or not KevinH is:

a. Telling the truth about his role
b. Standard or Insane

If he truly is the cop, then AbT's lynch will confirm his sanity. If he's scum, then he's "normal." If he's insane, then AbT will turn up townie and the other 2 he investigated are our next potential targets.

By my own count, if we flip Lyner back to AbT and convince Samus to do the same, which would end the day with a 6 person lynch. We could have KevinH potentially investigate KH overnight and report back. Based on sanity, we then move from there.

Day doesn't end until Wednesday. If we wanted to end this today we could.

[Samus]

I've already confirmed KevinH is telling the truth though?

Also I see no point Kevin wasting his action on King H, it's a given he's scum at this stage now.

[Finster Baby]

I've already confirmed KevinH is telling the truth though?

Also I see no point Kevin wasting his action on King H, it's a given he's scum at this stage now.

Have you? I'll have to check back.

Doesn't change my lynch vote tho.

[Preston]

I've already confirmed KevinH is telling the truth though?

You confirmed that Kevin targeted who he said he targeted on Night 3, and iSocialism confirmed that he is a student as Kevin claimed. It's almost impossible for Kevin to be scum at this point - however Finster's comment is exactly what has me cautious (though not about Finster himself):

As stated previously, lynching AbT today is the only way we will confirm whether or not KevinH is:

a. Telling the truth about his role
b. Standard or Insane

If he truly is the cop, then AbT's lynch will confirm his sanity. If he's scum, then he's "normal." If he's insane, then AbT will turn up townie and the other 2 he investigated are our next potential targets.

By my own count, if we flip Lyner back to AbT and convince Samus to do the same, which would end the day with a 6 person lynch. We could have KevinH potentially investigate KH overnight and report back. Based on sanity, we then move from there.

Day doesn't end until Wednesday. If we wanted to end this today we could.

I'm one of the two Kevin says he investigated, and I know my own towniness - so to me at least I already have confirmed that Kevin is not an insane cop. The remaining options are Sane cop, Sane cop fooled on AbT by Framer, or Scum with a role whose targeting Samus was able to confirm (which would be a truly impressive feat).

The problem is that AbT's lynch will not be definitive due to the possibility of that framer, unlikely though it might be. Hopefully I am just overthinking this and AbT will flip scum and everything is proven, but if AbT flips town and people assume insane cop as the second test, we risk following it with a second mis-lynch before we realize there are other options. We have a good buffer of people alive now, and the only way it feels like we can lose is if we get several mis-lynches in a row... which is why I am a bit cautious here when I see a reaction like Finster's.

I may be splitting hairs here, and hopefully the situation will not be that complex; I just can't ignore the need to be more specific about what AbT's lynch will or won't mean.

I agree we should not have to wait until Wednesday for this day to end, the only question is which wagon to start with. I personally think King Hitler is more 'certainly' scum due to being caught in his lie, and feel that we may get more information about the scum from seeing whatever role he ended up with. But if you would rather AbT be our first test case then I can swap my vote to help make that happen.

Vote: Ali Bin Turban

Now you only need one vote to hammer and end the day, if you choose to. I would prefer that last vote be Samus, the only 100% confirmed town.
 
-Preston

[Samus]

Now that we know KevinH is cop, ideally he would be the next target as he has a strong power role. But that also means if we have a doc or whoever protected us last night, is most likely going to protect Kevin. Scum knows this so they may not even target him as it will be a waste of their night. But now we also know that scum knows.. So it could really go either way.

It's 50/50 what could end up happening. So whoever protected/role blocked last night think smart about who you're going to target.

I'll like to let the day go on a little longer, so won't change my vote for now. I still think KH has an ability

[SeaBeeGipson]

Now that we know KevinH is cop, ideally he would be the next target as he has a strong power role. But that also means if we have a doc or whoever protected us last night, is most likely going to protect Kevin. Scum knows this so they may not even target him as it will be a waste of their night. But now we also know that scum knows.. So it could really go either way.
It's 50/50 what could end up happening. So whoever protected/role blocked last night think smart about who you're going to target.
I'll like to let the day go on a little longer, so won't change my vote for now. I still think KH has an ability

I may have an ability. But it could be a townie ability or a scum ability. The world may never know. Does Ron Weasley sound like a scum name to you?

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

Ali bin Turban (5): KevinH, Finster Baby, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight, Preston

King Hitler (2): Samus, Lyner

Mazuurek (1): Wolfpacks

Finster Baby (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

Lyner (0):

Preston (0):

Samus (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, iSocialism, King Hitler

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Wednesday, July 20th.

[Mazuurek]

 

Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Wednesday, July 20th.

what happens at deadline?