761 replies to this topic

[Sister Midnight]

We do got to be careful about a godfather role

Why?

[iSocialism]

because a godfather role could give Kevin an innocent result

[Wolfpacks]

So working on that premise both you or Preston could still be scum.

[iSocialism]

So working on that premise both you or Preston could still be scum.

and you

[Preston]

Ugh, I was hoping it wouldnt be either Samus or Kevin who were killed last night - a WIFOM theory on the potential a doctor is on play, that to target either of the 'known' townies would risk having their kill blocked. RIP Samus.

It's good to get confirmation about Ali and Kevin's sanity edge case. Which leaves us with King Hitler... who frankly seems to have given up. I am a little curious that Kevin did not go to confirm KH last night, given he was so uncertain of the rationale yesterday. I saw Kevin's post about how he would have expected scum to play (or not play) and explain away the contradiction, but not everyone can spin words like that.

I was also kicking around the scenario that Kevin's leading us to Ali is a scum sacrificial move, meant to prove Kevin town until the end of the game. The only corroboration we have of his role (aside from Ali's scumminess) is Samus' observation on who he targeted that one night, and Samus is gone now. I dont think this is a LIKELY scenario, but I do want to be cautious here and make sure it is said aloud.
So who remains...

King Hitler - per lying/contradiction, suspected to be scum
Finster Baby - Strongly felt to be town
KevinH - Apparently proven town sane cop. With Ali's flip he definitely started a wagon on a proven scum.
Preston - Me, Town (Why would I say otherwise?). Also investigated as town by Kevin
iSocialism - Kevin investigated as Town. Otherwise uncertain about them.
Lyner - Uncertain
Wolfpacks - Kevin investigated as Town, but argumentative and
Sister Midnight - Seems pro town, if new.
Mazuurek - Short posts and lurking, not taking seriously?

Of that list, I'd push for King Hitler today and then... well it'll depend on what happens tonight I guess. We can expect Kevin will get at least one more investigation out so long as his protection holds. We still might have to worry about there being a Godfather in play... wouldn't it be crazy if KH was that?

Actually, we should probably talk about scenarios why scum could have missed their kill that night. Off the top of my head:
1. Doctor targeted someone and they were protected. No doctor has come forward (wisely), as to do so would mean the end of their usefulness.
2. Jailer targeted scum, who could not perform the kill. I specify Jailer because the townie would not know for certain that their target was scum - they could have been the intended target that was saved instead. A town roleblocker would have been able to speak up about what they found because it would be more obvious, and none has.
3. Scum targeted someone with Bulletproof. This can either be a townie, or perhaps the "Mafia Traitor" possibility.
4. Scum simply didn't turn in a result by the end of the night.

Given that Scum targeted Samus instead of Kevin, I'm inclined to believe it was not option 4 - they were actually blocked by SOMETHING, so they didn't go with the obvious kill out of fear of losing their shot again.

On that note - we've seen two scum goons thus far, and no scum power roles at all. Because Kevin got a result last night, that implies their role does not include 'roleblocker' - I'd have expected them to block him if so. So what could they have...?

-Preston

[Lyner]

woot Ali is confirmed scum, we've some analysis to do

later though, I wont be posting much until weekends, RL stuff

[Finster Baby]

I'm pointing both at King Hitler and Mazuurek. Both of your posts are either contradictory, outright lies, or weak.

[Sister Midnight]

I'm pointing both at King Hitler and Mazuurek. Both of your posts are either contradictory, outright lies, or weak.

That

[KevinH]

So just as the Day 4 was ending, I composed a very analytical post full of quotes about King Hitler and that his "lies" weren't really pro-scum and that he was in on the lynch of Legoboy the scum. Unfortunately, when I went to post it, the thread was already locked.

 
I'd swear I got a message that the topic is locked but my post is there.  Did everybody see it?
 
 

First, "The Lie":

First, my role claim that Samus requested. Ron Weasley, 1 shot commuter. May be why the results were different, though if my understanding is that the Ninja and VT also pull that result, what role could Lyner have? If VT pulls a different result than normal, we come to the conclusion that Lyner has a role other than VT. Possibly town, possibly scum.

 

I tried to commute but was blocked. I think we may have 2 roleblocker, a bulletproof mod, or scum just didn't try.
My theory? We have a town roleblocker who blocked scum and scum roleblocker who blocked me. My question is who was the target? That setup would make sense if I was the target, but this is just theory. Anyone find anything last night

 
What a scum would have said in response to being called out that a commuter can't be blocked:
 

"I misunderstood the term 1-shot and tried to commute a 2nd time and the mod told me I couldn't.  I assumed I was blocked"

Instead we get this:

Panic Mode - Activate.
Glad to see how this day is turning out.

 

I neither confirm nor deny that I am he who shall not be named.
I do, however, feel we as a group should rally together and lynch scum.

 

"What is this magic?!"

 

If I was hypothetically scum, I'd then have knowledge of all the scum roles in this game, including my own. Hypothetically, who is to say everyone even has the correct amount of scum they believe to be in the game? Could be 4 left alive, could be 2.
Hypothetically, who is to also say we can ever find the Framer before we start lynching everyone? Does a Framer even exist? I think we need to ask ourselves these questions.

Again, I like where today is going. Made the game interesting.

  

I may have an ability. But it could be a townie ability or a scum ability. The world may never know. Does Ron Weasley sound like a scum name to you?

 
Is this anything close to what a scum would say?

Also, consider

• King Hitler was in on the lynch of Legoboy.
• Why would a scum bother to fake-claim commuter, anyway?

I think the evidence for King Hitler being scum is weak.
I can't explain his posts, but rather than say that it's not what a townie would do, consider that it's probably not what a scum would do, either.

 

 

I think this reasoning is still sound.  I don't want to vote for King Hitler.

[Sister Midnight]

Scum would fake claim commuter if he was told that was his cover story by the game master. When I was scum I was given a cover that was not that different in that it would have been nearly impossible for anyone to investigate it.

[Preston]

On phone so I'll be brief.

Earlier Kevin said he would be inclined to vote for KH because of inconsistencies, and now not anymore - what changed between posts?

Mafiascum notes commuter is a plausible fake claim, and I can see why-nothing observable or provable, especially if you claim you've used your one shot already and can't do it again.

Kevin gives us a good way that scum could have spun being called out on the lie, but a newer player may not have been able to think of something like that and panic or give up. Because he didn't stretch to prove his innocence isn't necessarily pro town to me.

The main factor against voting KH remains his legoboy vote, which Kevin calls out.

So who else should we be considering?

[KevinH]

Why I investigated Wolfpacks

First, I named Ali bin Turban as scum.

Night 2 I investigated Ali bin Turban and found he was not a Gryffindor Student nor a Helpful Hogwarts Staff (cue the ominous music).

  
Then, we get these responses.

 

"Ali bin Turban also voted for Maz, ... Vote Mazuurek"
"I'm afraid I disagree on Ali bin turban, it's just a feeling but I've seen nothing to tell me otherwise, including what KevinH put"

"he could be pointing you in the wrong direction"

"I do believe KevinH but I also believe he is a insane Cop and have to be very wary of what he says."

 

This all sounds to me like he's desperately trying to find a reason to not vote for Ali bin Turban and convince others as well (and he never did vote for Ali bin Turban).

 

My investigation shows him as Gryffindor Student, but if we have a Godfather in the game, I believe it's Wolfpacks.

[Sister Midnight]

Preston beat me to it, but it nags at me that Kev vacillates on King. Could it be that Lego wanted to be thrown u dear the bus because he was having RL stuff and didn't strongly want to play anymore? That would explain King's early Lego bandwagon joining. But what about Kev? I am not getting a very good vibe about him atm.

[Wolfpacks]

Having not played before I had to research the Godfather role and found this little titbit

An investigation immune Godfather may wish to play scummier than normal, in the hopes of getting investigated by a Cop; however, this runs the risk of being lynched for playing scummy. Alternatively, lurking early may draw a Cop investigation, because it makes you harder to read; however, this runs the risk of being lynched for lurking, especially if you are active in other games or it is contradictory to your normal playstyle.

Nobody seems to be investigating the lurker and he is still my first choice as scum, the first lurker i.e Rafay turn out town, odds on says the second lurker is mafia scum.
As for Ali I just got it wrong plain and simple.

As for the remaining scum, it seems to me as a straight fight between KH or Lyner

[The Warrior]

"I'm worth twelve of you, Malfoy."

 

Vote Count
 

King Hitler (1): King Hitler

Finster Baby (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

Lyner (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Preston (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Finster Baby, iSocialism, KevinH, Lyner, Mazuurek, Preston, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

 

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Monday, July 25th.

[KevinH]

This still hold true.

 

 

if Kevin's #1 choice Mazuurek is now viable as a wagon over his #2 choice Rafay, why is his vote not there? Kevin's votes are increasingly worrying to me.

 
I can explain myself now.
 

Unofficial Vote Count
 

Rafay (3): iSocialism, KevinH, Mazuurek

Mazuurek (3): Finster Baby, Sister Midnight, Ali bin Turban,

...
 
I expect Rafay to vote for Mazuurek to save himself, but still think Rafay is the best choice.

 

 
Ali bin Turban was voting for Mazuurek and I knew Ali bin Turban was scum so that gave Mazuurek a bunch of townie points in my opinion.

Rafay the townie should have voted for Mazuurek to save himself.
Ali bin Turban the scum would have known this and didn't seem to mind that Mazuurek was going to be lynched.
  
 

Seamus Finnigan (Rafay) a normal Gryffindor Student has been knocked out on day 3.
 
Vote Count

Rafay (5): iSocialism, KevinH, Mazuurek, King Hitler, Lyner

 

 
Instead, we had King Hitler and Lyner jumping in and lynching Rafay and thus saving Mazuurek. Did Ali bin Turban know that this was going to happen all along? I doubt it because that makes it 4 scum outstanding (Ali bin Turban, Mazuurek, King Hitler, and Lyner) besides the dead scum Legoboy.

My conclusion is that Mazuurek is townie.

 

 

tl;dr: Ali bin Turban was willing to have Mazuurek lynched, so Mazuurek is probably town.

[Preston]

Scum would fake claim commuter if he was told that was his cover story by the game master. When I was scum I was given a cover that was not that different in that it would have been nearly impossible for anyone to investigate it.

Can I get some clarification on this SM? It's been a while since I got to play scum, but are you saying that scum players are provided a flavor name that is mod guaranteed to be a safe claim...? Something like, "You are really (bad guy) but may safely claim as (good guy)." If so, then I am abruptly more suspicious of King Hitler's insistence on his character name sounding innocent.

That aside - so in brief KevinH thinks Mazuurek is town because Ali (scum) was willing to lynch him. Okay, I can see that argument - not a guaranteed clearing, but more than nothing.

Lyner, Finster, King Hitler, Sister Midnight, Mazuurek have all not been investigated yet. Of those I have a good feeling about Finster and SM, which leaves Lyner, King Hitler, and Mazuurek. Kevin has a positive feeling about Mazuurek per above. If we cut him out, that leaves Lyner and King Hitler on the list of those not yet investigated that need attention. Kevin wants to add Wolfpacks back to the list due to his argumentative posting style; I don't fully have a problem with that as I wouldn't be surprised at a godfather in play, but I would am more inclined to run down Lyner and King Hitler before doubling back over to second-guess the already investigated results.

Also want to note that Lyner posted again that he will be away until this weekend; I know RL happens but it still feels like a perfect cop-out to escape being discussed for the rest of the day.

I remain suspicious of King Hitler, as did Samus previously. Lynching KH would also remove one of those Kevin has not yet investigated, so tonight he could move closer to full coverage with confirming Mazuurek, Lyner, SM or Finster - though I believe the latter two are town at this point.

As contradictory as Wolfpacks has been, I am not sure if I'm ready to see that as enough to override the investigation result on him yet and put him before King Hitler's demonstrated lie - as Kevin noted earlier, Lynch All Liars is not a bad strategy.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

Scum would fake claim commuter if he was told that was his cover story by the game master. When I was scum I was given a cover that was not that different in that it would have been nearly impossible for anyone to investigate it.

Can I get some clarification on this SM? It's been a while since I got to play scum, but are you saying that scum players are provided a flavor name that is mod guaranteed to be a safe claim...? Something like, "You are really (bad guy) but may safely claim as (good guy)." If so, then I am abruptly more suspicious of King Hitler's insistence on his character name sounding innocent.That aside - so in brief KevinH thinks Mazuurek is town because Ali (scum) was willing to lynch him. Okay, I can see that argument - not a guaranteed clearing, but more than nothing.Lyner, Finster, King Hitler, Sister Midnight, Mazuurek have all not been investigated yet. Of those I have a good feeling about Finster and SM, which leaves Lyner, King Hitler, and Mazuurek. Kevin has a positive feeling about Mazuurek per above. If we cut him out, that leaves Lyner and King Hitler on the list of those not yet investigated that need attention. Kevin wants to add Wolfpacks back to the list due to his argumentative posting style; I don't fully have a problem with that as I wouldn't be surprised at a godfather in play, but I would am more inclined to run down Lyner and King Hitler before doubling back over to second-guess the already investigated results.Also want to note that Lyner posted again that he will be away until this weekend; I know RL happens but it still feels like a perfect cop-out to escape being discussed for the rest of the day.I remain suspicious of King Hitler, as did Samus previously. Lynching KH would also remove one of those Kevin has not yet investigated, so tonight he could move closer to full coverage with confirming Mazuurek, Lyner, SM or Finster - though I believe the latter two are town at this point.As contradictory as Wolfpacks has been, I am not sure if I'm ready to see that as enough to override the investigation result on him yet and put him before King Hitler's demonstrated lie - as Kevin noted earlier, Lynch All Liars is not a bad strategy.-Preston

Yes I was given a cover name and fake role when I was scum. I think my role was martyr, which would be Impossible to investigate by anyone except a cop.

[Finster Baby]

Now last time I played with TW as scum, he did NOT provide us with cover names. So your mileage may vary.

I think Preston's analysis here is pretty spot on. I remain suspicious of Lyner, although I believe Samus tracked him at one point, KH, Mazuurek and, to a lesser extent, Wolfpacks.

While odds are still in the Town's favor to win, we do have to be careful not to kill off too many of our own.

[iSocialism]

Ali bin Turban (6): KevinH, Finster Baby, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight, Preston, Ali bin Turban

Rafay (5): iSocialism, KevinH, Mazuurek, King Hitler, Lyner

legoboyvdlp (5): Samus, Finster Baby, King Hitler, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight

No Lynch (5): KevinH, King Hitler, Finster Baby, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

 

I also see that SM took her vote away from samus and gave it to rafay on D2 I think if she was scum she wouldn't have done that.

Also she has been on both mafia lynch wagons. Though the lego's wasn't until late and AbT was thrown in the middle of a rush. 

This also goes back to my theory that scum players will try to descredit people townie points quiet often. Lyner has done that in my mind. 

He is the better of the two to go after.

 

king Hitler - Tracked by samus called out by samus. Has dodge a d2, d3 lynch. Seems to be contradicting himself. Was on Lego's wagon

Finster Baby - Has been early on both lynch wagons, wasn't on rafay's. Has given input and been an active player.

iSocialism  - myself, has been investigated by Kevin, but there is most likely a godfather. Also not on any scum lynch wagon, and on rafay's

KevinH  - COP

 Lyner - Was not on lego's, was not on AbT/ Instead placed a vote on KH during AbT lynch. 

Mazuurek  - quiet, but is coming forward more as the days go on.

 Preston - investigated by Kevin, though GF role might exist. Has been giving input. I Can't remember if he has given a list in previous days.

Sister Midnight - seems to care, has been on both wagons. and have been thinking about her votes IMO.

Wolfpacks - was early voted on d2 by AbT and AbT kind of acted like he should be lynched. 

 

Vote Lyner

 

I don't think he is the best candidate. I'm also assuming that there was four scums to start with. If lyner flips town. The last scum will be a hard one to point out. I think the last scum is playing a good game. But I have my ideas on who it my be.