926 replies to this topic

[Preston]

I just noticed we have two deaths; D34TH and CoD. Will try not to let that get confusing but I'm sure someone will screw that up at least once during this game

Lyner's no-lynch vote seems like he doesn't want to say much. For some people it's not even a question for debate, but c'mon - engage the thread a bit more for day 1. Same goes for AbT, as Rhizo points out - talk more! There's a lot to respond to so far, so don't tell me you have no opinion on it at all.

In fact, to drive that point home on AbT...

Vote: Ali Bin Turban

Show us you've got more in you than a hello-goodbye and I'll remove the vote.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

I just noticed we have two deaths; D34TH and CoD. Will try not to let that get confusing but I'm sure someone will screw that up at least once during this game :PLyner's no-lynch vote seems like he doesn't want to say much. For some people it's not even a question for debate, but c'mon - engage the thread a bit more for day 1. Same goes for AbT, as Rhizo points out - talk more! There's a lot to respond to so far, so don't tell me you have no opinion on it at all.In fact, to drive that point home on AbT...Vote: Ali Bin TurbanShow us you've got more in you than a hello-goodbye and I'll remove the vote.-Preston

I think of them as chap and d3, but switching to numbers from letters on my device is a little annoying, so d3 may change for me.

[Ali bin Turban]

That's weak "incentive", Preston...you've not convinced me . I know you can do better.

 

For instance why don't you tell us how do you envision this day to play out? What do you expect of it? Do you plan to cast your vote on some option you see most fitting for us? I'm curious what you think we should do.

Please let us know and I'll share my thoughts about it too .

[KevinH]

I expect we'll find 4 or 5 scum from among these:

 

Sister Midnight
Mandarijn
Mazuurek
Rhizoctonia
legoboyvdlp
Ali bin Turban
Finster Baby
Samus
iSocialism
Wolfpacks
Rafay
Chaplain of Death
1ceCream
D34THBR1NG3R
Preston
Lyner
Canik

[Finster Baby]

And, in unrelated news, the Earth is round.

FOS: KevinH for pointing out the painfully obvious.

[Wolfpacks]

I expect we'll find 4 or 5 scum from among these:
 

Sister Midnight
Mandarijn
Mazuurek
Rhizoctonia
legoboyvdlp
Ali bin Turban
Finster Baby
Samus
iSocialism
Wolfpacks
Rafay
Chaplain of Death
1ceCream
D34THBR1NG3R
Preston
Lyner
Canik

Even I Call this for fluffiness

[Chaplain of death]

In other news kevinH doesn't suspect himself because he knows his role, but we don't, so we can't write him off the suspect list.

[Sister Midnight]

In other news kevinH doesn't suspect himself because he knows his role, but we don't, so we can't write him off the suspect list.

Deep insight. 

[Preston]

That's weak "incentive", Preston...you've not convinced me . I know you can do better.
 
For instance why don't you tell us how do you envision this day to play out? What do you expect of it? Do you plan to cast your vote on some option you see most fitting for us? I'm curious what you think we should do.
Please let us know and I'll share my thoughts about it too .

Was never intended to be a game changer, but the fact it got you to reply within two hours means it served its purpose! Glad to see you so on top of things, despite your earlier dismissive post.

I envision seeing this day play out by reacting to how people deal with the no-information status; who jumps on whom, who goes silent and lurks to avoid notice, who pushes harder or earlier than others for no-lynch. All this only happens if people dont throw up their hands and say "Well it's day one, no-lynch, see you all on day 2." right at the start.

We have five days until Day 1 ends. I will cast a vote for a lynch target before then, if for nothing more than to record that someone has piqued my interest. I encourage everyone to do the same - be clear on what you think you are seeing instead of just voting with nothing stated; no context-less Mazuurek-style votes from last game. If this ends in a wagon that reaches five or more votes, then we will get additional data to use in evaluating those on the wagon. If it does NOT, we will still have votes for reference on future days - both in terms of who voted for whom, AND whose votes were deliberately cast to avoid wagons finishing.

So in short day 1 is to start getting people on record ASAP, no matter HOW you choose to do so.

However in the near term I am going to honor what I stated previously; you posted, so I'll unvote. And now I'll expect you to give a little more thought in response to this as well, since you said you would

Unvote

-Preston

[Canik]

Town did a no-lynch last game and they won

 

 

Vote: No Lynch

I wasn't in last game but with it being a big Harry Potter game I imagine there was a good amount of power roles and probably will be in this one as well. In that case no lynching does make more sense, I just would suggest not advertising it and not voting no lynch so early. These days are long, we have until friggin Thursday.
 

[Canik]

For now I am going to place my vote on Rafay, he's super quiet every game I've seen and far too often gets away with it.

Vote Rafay

[Sister Midnight]

For now I am going to place my vote on Rafay, he's super quiet every game I've seen and far too often gets away with it.Vote Rafay

And that is a large part of the reason why I am leaning towards lynching. Before last game ended I said I was going to vote to lynch someone on day one. I got frustrated by the lurkers. I had the rope ready for a certain someone almost every night, he was a lurker. I didn't push the lynch bc a scummier person rose to the top (get it? Scum. Rose to the top. I'm very punny!). I'm open to a no lynch tonight, but I'm leaning towards lynching SOMEONE.

Edited by Sister Midnight, 07 August 2016 - 05:26 AM.

[Canik]

 

For now I am going to place my vote on Rafay, he's super quiet every game I've seen and far too often gets away with it.Vote Rafay

And that is a large part of the reason why I am leaning towards lynching. Before last game ended I said I was going to vote to lynch someone on day one. I got frustrated by the lurkers. I had the rope ready for a certain someone almost every night, he was a lurker. I didn't push the lynch bc a scummier person rose to the top (get it? Scum. Roar to the top. I'm very punny!). I'm open to a no lynch tonight, but I'm leaning towards lynching SOMEONE.

 

lol I think I get it, you said 'roar' instead of rise the 2nd time though xD

I for sure get that lurkers can be frustrating. 2 games ago scum won because of a lurker and the game before that town nearly lost because of inactives & lurkers. We were very sure there was a scum among them but there were so many. If you're town and not posting you're a huge detriment to the team. Some may do it to have an easier time as scum but personally, I want to win when I'm town too. And you're town more often than you are scum.

[legoboyvdlp]

Out till Monday. Driving all day tomorrow, mostly.

[Lyner]

Lynching innocent people is bad mmkay?

[Mazuurek]

 

 

no context-less Mazuurek-style votes from last game 

 

 

sorry, i'll try to write more when i vote to lynch someone :c

[Ali bin Turban]

Alright since I've promised to share my thoughts here they are:

 

1. Normally I'd vote to lynch that ol' lazy Rafay. With 3 games under my belt I'm starting to understand why for instance KevinH or Lyner are not posting that much (in terms of volume). They're active however and playing with them is fun. Playing with Rafay is not (so he needs an incentive to bump his activity, and that incentive would be a nice D1 lynch applied for a few games).

 

2. But then we have a setup that enables us to go for a no-lynch. Interesting that none of the experienced players (those who did a little bit of number crunching for us) mention that even number of players gives us a "free" no-lynch. Sure, mafia is going to take a shot at us at night, but by "free" I mean it will not use our miss-lynch chances as it would do with odd number of players.

Basically we have X shots we can miss before we lose the game and in games where there are odd number of players no-lynch on day one is eating up one of the shots, while in even-games it does not. Obviously it can be messed by some vigilante missing a shot, mafia having another kill through JOAT, SK being in game or some other reason. Still it's good to have in mind that we can live one day longer if we take no-lynch stance once.

 

This is very important to know, since I'm expecting the game to have quite a bit of PRs just as last time. Buying them more time is crucial.

 

That being said, I think I'll vote for someone who I strongly feel is a scum (since he appeared and is asking to get lynched)...but I need to leave right now. I'll explain that when I'm back.

[Samus]

 

Town did a no-lynch last game and they won

 

 

Vote: No Lynch

I wasn't in last game but with it being a big Harry Potter game I imagine there was a good amount of power roles and probably will be in this one as well. In that case no lynching does make more sense, I just would suggest not advertising it and not voting no lynch so early. These days are long, we have until friggin Thursday.
 

 

it's annoying seeing your name in white.

 

Get a mask!

 

Until then..

 

Vote Canik.

[Samus]

Also quick analysis of the scum ratio.

 

I agree that there are maybe 4/5 players that are scum, judging from TW's normal pattern. Last game we had 15 players, and 4 turned out to be scum. We have 18 now, so i'd assume it wouldn't stay too far off from that too.

[Ali bin Turban]

It didn't took long. Now I'm back with part 2.

 

It won't be much surprise that my suspect is Lego. As I see I'm not the only one that got suspicious of him. My reasoning is as follow:

 

- First of all, he's active but his activity has that unnatural feel like it's forced in order to prove us something. But who knows...that still might be an enthusiastic guy who's playing as town for the first time.

- Post #8: he's trying little to hard to imply he's town: "I'd be surprised if any of the original TW-2 mafia (me, ABT, KingH, and Lyner) were mafia" <- Being on mafia in other games means nothing and everyone knows that...well almost everyone. Still might be that enthusiastic guy that does not know that.

 

These were just light indications, but here's when I got red light:

 - He's so eager to declare random people sounding town - like his "check" on 1ceCream, it screams being fake so loud. It appears that Lego feels no need to find out (for real) who's town and who's scum. How many of you would dare to call someone townish after one sentence? Wouldn't you ask yourself "what if I'm wrong"? I wouldn't personally dare (There's only one person right now I have feeling that he's town and it came pretty much by accident. It's Samus - I'll explain that later).

 - He seems to know how many mafia players there are (post #8 again: "By pure guesswork, assuming there are 5 mafia, we have 27 percent chance of finding one."). Thing is, assuming 25% is a golden standard for mafia games, possibility of being 4 or 5 mafia players out there is exactly the same (they both deviate from the golden standard by ~2,8%). So honestly, I can't tell how many mafia players there are myself, but Lego's sure about that. Lucky guess? Maybe, but less so in conjunction with other indications I've mentioned.

I won't vote on Lego just yet...because I'm not done with the posting yet. There's second part waiting to be published and I'll do it tomorrow. For now I'd like to hear what rest of the town makes of it.