926 replies to this topic

[Canik]

 

 

Town did a no-lynch last game and they won

 

 

Vote: No Lynch

I wasn't in last game but with it being a big Harry Potter game I imagine there was a good amount of power roles and probably will be in this one as well. In that case no lynching does make more sense, I just would suggest not advertising it and not voting no lynch so early. These days are long, we have until friggin Thursday.
 

 

it's annoying seeing your name in white.

 

Get a mask!

 

Until then..

 

Vote Canik.

 

Ugh, fine. Since you're gonna keep bugging me about it. For the record I used to have one but I was removed for some reason. I guess due to FEAR merging.

- He's so eager to declare random people sounding town - like his "check" on 1ceCream, it screams being fake so loud. It appears that Lego feels no need to find out (for real) who's town and who's scum. How many of you would dare to call someone townish after one sentence? Wouldn't you ask yourself "what if I'm wrong"? I wouldn't personally dare (There's only one person right now I have feeling that he's town and it came pretty much by accident. It's Samus - I'll explain that later).

This is a good point but wish you would've linked the post, I didn't see when he said that I only saw D3 saying FB felt like town. Sure you aren't mixing them up? I might re-read the thread for it later but I'm out for now, will be back this afternoon.

btw about the even days giving an 'free' day of no lynch, I didn't think of that (still kinda newish myself). Glad you mentioned it, it's a variable worth considering.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Town did a no-lynch last game and they won


Vote: No Lynch

I wasn't in last game but with it being a big Harry Potter game I imagine there was a good amount of power roles and probably will be in this one as well. In that case no lynching does make more sense, I just would suggest not advertising it and not voting no lynch so early. These days are long, we have until friggin Thursday.

it's annoying seeing your name in white.

Get a mask!

Until then..

Vote Canik.

Ugh, fine. Since you're gonna keep bugging me about it. For the record I used to have one but I was removed for some reason. I guess due to FEAR merging.

- He's so eager to declare random people sounding town - like his "check" on 1ceCream, it screams being fake so loud. It appears that Lego feels no need to find out (for real) who's town and who's scum. How many of you would dare to call someone townish after one sentence? Wouldn't you ask yourself "what if I'm wrong"? I wouldn't personally dare (There's only one person right now I have feeling that he's town and it came pretty much by accident. It's Samus - I'll explain that later).

This is a good point but wish you would've linked the post, I didn't see when he said that I only saw D3 saying FB felt like town. Sure you aren't mixing them up? I might re-read the thread for it later but I'm out for now, will be back this afternoon.
btw about the even days giving an 'free' day of no lynch, I didn't think of that (still kinda newish myself). Glad you mentioned it, it's a variable worth considering.

He's not mixing us up, legoboy voted 1ceCream as his first post and I jokingly agreed, and you can see my reasoning on page 2 I think.

And yes I said FB felt like town to me and what's so bad about that is what I don't get. You guys are accusing people of being scrum and no one is triggered by that but as soon as I say that I have a vibe someone might be or probably is town in my eyes, people put their FOS on me.

[Finster Baby]

I support whoever it was who said Rafay needs a few D1 lynchings in order to discover the meaning of activity.

I won't push the button yet, tho.

I also lean in favor of No Lynch, unless something comes up that screams scum. Lego I'm looking directly at you.

[Preston]

Glad to see ali posting more constructive bits - though I am at a loss as to why he is breaking up his analysis into parts and stretching it out like that. The first break was more understandable, as they said they had limited time and then soon thereafter returned - fine. But why stop on the second one saying there's a second half to be published, instead of doing it just then? Maybe there's a reason, but that kind of "to be continued" teaser is one thing that made me look hard at iSocialism last game.

However Ali does sum up a lot of the thoughts we've been having about lego quite succinctly. I'm not sure I would dock lego TOO much for his assumption on the number of mafia however; it's not unreasonable to assume we've got a +1 from the prior game with three fewer people, but he did not type all that thought process out. I worked through the same logic earlier in the thread, albeit a bit more explicitly showing where I got the numbers from.

Eighteen people this game, fifteen people last game; last game had four scum, so I'm guessing five this time - MAYBE six depending on how TW wants to balance our chances. So we're looking at 5/18 = 27.7% or 6/18 = 33.3% of a scum lynch on the first day in terms of sheer numbers. It's not great odds - but casting votes now gives us more to work with later.

So I wouldn't say this excuses Lego's other behavior, but the point about the numbers doesn't speak to me as much

Also, sorry if I came off as overly mean there Mazuurek when I used your previous game's posting pattern as an example of what I'd like to avoid this game. It's definitely not personal, but hopefully you can see why it drew attention in a bad way and made you look scummy in a game where you actually weren't.

In other news... Lyner posted that single south park ish line, and that's his contribution? Sheer post count boosting doesn't do the town any favors.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

Alright since I've promised to share my thoughts here they are:
 
1. Normally I'd vote to lynch that ol' lazy Rafay. With 3 games under my belt I'm starting to understand why for instance KevinH or Lyner are not posting that much (in terms of volume). They're active however and playing with them is fun. Playing with Rafay is not (so he needs an incentive to bump his activity, and that incentive would be a nice D1 lynch applied for a few games).
 
2. But then we have a setup that enables us to go for a no-lynch. Interesting that none of the experienced players (those who did a little bit of number crunching for us) mention that even number of players gives us a "free" no-lynch. Sure, mafia is going to take a shot at us at night, but by "free" I mean it will not use our miss-lynch chances as it would do with odd number of players.
Basically we have X shots we can miss before we lose the game and in games where there are odd number of players no-lynch on day one is eating up one of the shots, while in even-games it does not. Obviously it can be messed by some vigilante missing a shot, mafia having another kill through JOAT, SK being in game or some other reason. Still it's good to have in mind that we can live one day longer if we take no-lynch stance once.
 
This is very important to know, since I'm expecting the game to have quite a bit of PRs just as last time. Buying them more time is crucial.
 
That being said, I think I'll vote for someone who I strongly feel is a scum (since he appeared and is asking to get lynched)...but I need to leave right now. I'll explain that when I'm back.

I am shocked you only have 3 games under your belt. You were great at manipulating and strategizing last game as scum! I am not a math-y person, could you explain your "free" no lynch theory a bit more?

[Samus]

Unvote Canik

 

What was the spell to reveal someone's true identity in HP? The one they used in goblet of fire to reveal the fake mad eye moody or did his polly juice just run out..

[Sister Midnight]

Unvote Canik
 
What was the spell to reveal someone's true identity in HP? The one they used in goblet of fire to reveal the fake mad eye moody or did his polly juice just run out..

While attacking Harry after he returned from the graveyard, the potion started to wear off and he had no more left.

[Lyner]

In other news... Lyner posted that single south park ish line, and that's his contribution? Sheer post count boosting doesn't do the town any favors.

 

If I was trying to boost my post count you won't notice it Preston

 

 

Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way.

 

 

Or we can talk about the lores. In the last game the scums are antagonists of the first book: Snape, Malfoy, Quirell, and Peeves(who is Peeves?), and are given fake names. I'm pretty sure TW still use the same formula. So the antagonists of the second book might be: Tom Riddle and Gilderoy Lockhart. Anyone can help me expand the list?

 

So in case there is a flavor cop(which I guess can identify the true name), I think we should be open about our names from early, especially if you have a scummy sounding name. Thoughts?

[Mandarijn]

2. But then we have a setup that enables us to go for a no-lynch. Interesting that none of the experienced players (those who did a little bit of number crunching for us) mention that even number of players gives us a "free" no-lynch. 

Imran is probably the only other one, besides you, that I've played with, who would've thought of this. And he's not in this game...

[Ali bin Turban]

@Canik, those posts are all over the place. Just take a look at post #19, post #31 and post #48. You can't miss those things.

 

@Preston: I'm sorry you don't like it, but it all serves its purpose. I could spit out everything I know on my very first post in this game, but I've decided to wait. Unaware scum that's making mistakes is much better than the one who know he's hunted. And I got a bit more material thanks to that. And now, assuming I'm correct, scums are experiencing anxiety and therefore they may slip and make some more mistakes.

 

@Mandarijn: That's very interesting response.

 

@SM: Thank you very much. Free no-lynch is quite simple. Just open Excel and write number of players in one row, then number of town and number of scum in the second one. Then simulate a passing day in each row. Just like that:

 

Players                18    
Town / scum         13    5
D1    missLynch    11    5
D2    missLynch    9    5
D3    missLynch    7    5
D4    missLynch    5    5
        Game over  

 

Now include no-lynch (I'm including it on D1 but it can be included anywhere, just before the final misslynch).

 

Players                18    
Town / scum         13    5
D1    noLynch       12    5
D2    missLynch    10    5
D3    missLynch    8    5
D4    missLynch    6    5
D5    missLynch    4    5
        Game over
 

Try doing it when there's odd number of players - no lynch won't be "free" in that case.

[KevinH]

I understand the idea about keeping the number of players odd, but early in the game it is overwhelmed by the massive probability that a townie gets lynched with not much information derived from the lynch.

[Ali bin Turban]

It has nothing to do with keeping odd number of players. It's merely a matter of "game has started with odd number of players" vs "game has started with even number of players".

[Chaplain of death]

 

In other news... Lyner posted that single south park ish line, and that's his contribution? Sheer post count boosting doesn't do the town any favors.

 

If I was trying to boost my post count you won't notice it Preston

 

 

Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way.

 

 

Actually poking people who aren't posting at all and having them suddenly show up to defend themselves is VERY telling. Being dismissive of this method and of the results it gets is also telling.

 

FoS Lyner

[Sister Midnight]

In the last game the scums are antagonists of the first book: Snape, Malfoy, Quirell, and Peeves(who is Peeves?)

 

Peeves is the mischievous ghost who torments various people in Hogwarts.  He really isn't evil, just a major pain in the ass.

[Canik]

@Canik, those posts are all over the place. Just take a look at post #19, post #31 and post #48. You can't miss those things.

Okay that does check out. He never says anyone is confirmed town but is very quick to say certain people are probably town.

Let's see who he has listed as probably town so far..

Icecream
Rhizo
Preston
Mandarijn

Am I missing anyone? Heh, kind of funny it adds up to 5 including Lego. I really kind of hope he didn't just give us the entire scum team, that'd be too easy.

[iSocialism]

Lego seems a little smart but still new at mafia. I wouldn't put it pass him to be scum and up talk town players to make other town question those people. However, I wouldn't put it pass him to put a scum or two into that list too.
That actually seems like a fun tactic to try to pull off.

[KevinH]

Rafay has made exactly 1 post all game.

 

Given that everyone has equal probability to be scum at this point, he's my first choice to lynch (after today).

[Lyner]

 

 

In other news... Lyner posted that single south park ish line, and that's his contribution? Sheer post count boosting doesn't do the town any favors.

 

If I was trying to boost my post count you won't notice it Preston

 

 

Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way.

 

 

Actually poking people who aren't posting at all and having them suddenly show up to defend themselves is VERY telling. Being dismissive of this method and of the results it gets is also telling.

 

FoS Lyner

 

Stop reading too much into post style and start voting, we can generate more significant info that way.

[Lyner]

And if I may add, Preston admitted it himself that he became suspicious of the actually innocent iSoc last game because of this way of observation

[Samus]

Rafay has made exactly 1 post all game.

 

Given that everyone has equal probability to be scum at this point, he's my first choice to lynch (after today).

 

dunno why choose to sign up if your activity levels are gonna remain exactly the same, was very annoying last game especially when I was defending him more than he was defending himself. Although i'm still of the mindset we shouldn't lynch people simply because they're inactive, i'm somewhat gearing towards lynching players like this, you're active to sign up to play, but inactive to actually play? Come on.. We could've had another player use that spot that would actually help the town.

 

/rant