926 replies to this topic

[Wolfpacks]

i can see the point of lynching inactives but there could be a perfectly good reason why they aint posting thats why we shouldn't just lynch on day 1, but i also dont like the idea of the scum getting a free hit

[Sister Midnight]

We have several real time days until night. I don't know how to pick out scum on the first day. Wolfy makes a good point that there may be good reason in RL why someone doesn't post, but the lurkers are troublesome throughout the game. As I said, if I see you very active elsewhere it is suspicious to me. What makes for scummy behavior on he first day, though? I have no idea. Not lynching gives scum a free ride. Odds are that lynching likely kills a townie. I feel like Hamlet trying to make a decision.

[Finster Baby]

Day 1 is always a crapshoot. You can try and lynch inactives, but you're probably gonna get a townie and give the scum a leg up on wiping us out.

No Lynch is an option. However, I'm not ready to go there yet.

Lego: your posts seem to be of trying to fit in. In that process, you're making yourself look a bit on the scummy side, attempting to deflect attention and instead shining the light on you.

[Samus]

KevinH is always a safe person to lynch on any day.

 

Also where's your buddy EM?!

[Canik]

Hey everyone, I'm here and should be active from this point forward. Just didn't realize I was added to the game until this morning and didn't have time to post then. Btw thanks for adding me TW. <3

[Preston]

Overall it looks like people are dealing with the nature of Day 1 and the no-lynch debate largely per normal; there are pros and cons to both sides.

With Canik and Ali having checked in we've now got at least one post on everyone across the board, and I'll call on everyone to KEEP posting at least once per day please - dont let inactivity become a crutch again, we wasted several days of unproductive debate on that last game. Even if you dont think you have anything of value to add or say, respond and react to what others are saying.

Eighteen people this game, fifteen people last game; last game had four scum, so I'm guessing five this time - MAYBE six depending on how TW wants to balance our chances. So we're looking at 5/18 = 27.7% or 6/18 = 33.3% of a scum lynch on the first day in terms of sheer numbers. It's not great odds - but casting votes now gives us more to work with later.

So in terms of notable activity thus far and who to vote for, let's see:

Legoboy made early waves trying to be very proactively pro-townie, albeit perhaps trying a little hard.

D34THBR1NG3R and Legoboy's early votes on 1ceCream (Getting used to those 1337-character names is going to screw with my typing!) was a notable brief early squabble

Kevin is being Kevin and FoS'ing inactives, which was fair up until now and hopefully we'll get something more productive.

Samus had an interesting post criticizing 1ceCream for being in favor of day 1 lynch, and has yet to update that to include everyone else in favor of it - or perhaps just letting the point drop as the pros/cons are debated publicly.

Re-skimming the thread so far, this is what stands out to me. D34TH and Legoboy and Samus would be the three on the 'most watch' list for me for the moment, but beyond that... dunno. Let's get everyone else's thoughts in here - make it a thing, Rank Your Friends!

-Preston

[D34THBR1NG3R]

I feel Finster is confirmed town, Samus isn't that sketchy but Legoboy is still my vote based on reasons I stated before

[Canik]

I feel Finster is confirmed town, Samus isn't that sketchy but Legoboy is still my vote based on reasons I stated before

Lego definitely stands out the most so far. I'm curious though why you feel Finster is confirmed town?

---

Concerning Lynch vs No Lynch D1 debate, my take on it is:

- IF there seems to be a good amount of power roles, no lynch is better. A 25% chance of hitting scum is not good and reading the wagons can help a bit but not that much if scum play smart. It definitely isn't worth it if a PR is killed. I believe if the math was done it would show at least a slight edge towards no lynching in this scenario.

- IF there seems to be virtually no power roles, lynching is better. Chance of hitting PR is much lower and the game is more reliant on vanilla towns analyzing. In this scenario there truly isn't much reason to wait for D2.

This is looking at the game in a vacuum though. If you consider it on a deeper metaphysical level:

Sometimes scum do have suspicious reactions to pressure. If everyone says they're for No Lynch because it's the logical/mathematical thing to do that can put scum at ease. Then everyone votes No Lynch and the day ends with very little info gained and we are completely relying on PRs. If we wanted to potentially gain extra info on D1, the scum needs to believe they could really be lynched.

With that in mind, I will no longer be quick to support no lynch in any game.

[legoboyvdlp]

Deathbringer, would be interested to see why you support Finster as town. Try and present reasoning

Will be away tomorrow all day, back in evening.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

IMO FInster is talking like he has nothing to hide, he's not trying to fit in, he's not lurking, no real definitive proof other than that so maybe not confirmed town but he has a very townie feeling in my eyes.

[legoboyvdlp]

Good idea, certainly not confirmed, but giving out towny vibes.

[Preston]

Vibes are all anyone can give out at this stage, though it's interesting to see the word 'confirmed' being thrown about.

As for Canik's breakdown - that's an interesting way to look at it, and somewhat raises my estimation of your analytical ability too. I'll have to expect more from you in the future

We shouldn't make it so Day 1 can be used as a litmus test as to how many power roles exist in the game, but I agree with the 'in a vacuum' assessment.

And D34TH seems to really be doubling down on legoboy. Good to keep that in mind for the future.

-Preston

[Chaplain of death]

Im always suspicious when people throw out the term confirmed without proof. Its happened several times over the past few games, and it always provokes an eyebrow raise from me.

Could be an accident from inexperienced scum trying to set a teammate up as townie or it could just be poor choice of words, or he may have just jumped to conclusions which is very bad in mafia.

Ill definetly be keeping an eye on how Finster and death interact as the game progresses.

[legoboyvdlp]

FOS on Death: jumped on 1ceCream (but explained it away as 'good fun' or something, prepared to accept that), says Finster is ''confirmed'' when it is only D1, vote on me (OMGUS )

[Rhizoctonia]

So I've skimmed the likes of posts.  5 pages already on Day 1 is impressive.

 

What I've noticed thus far:

 

Seems like we have a lot of new players to Mafia, at least on these forums...but with some of the comments, seems maybe first time ever.  Welcome, and glad to see it.  Always nice to see more people playing it and new people as well.  Hopefully if this is your first game ever you enjoy it.

 

That being said, it seems people are trying way too hard to read into things on Day 1.  It seems it's mostly the newer guys where the more veterans are sitting back and discussing the usual Day 1 topics (mostly to lynch or not to).  I think people need to realize that most Day 1 posts are fluff, it's hard to really to get a read.  I'm not saying it's impossible, personally speaking I've found 2 remarks people have made on D1 that struck me the wrong way and pushed for a lynch on them (didn't happen), and later when they were killed it was proven they were scum.  Could be just lucky guesses, but I caught a vibe and was right.  But people talking is a good thing, it at least helps everyone possibly pick up on something then everyone being silent and that being an acceptable behavior.  

 

So my synopsis so far:

 

-  Though people like to always give new players the benefit of the doubt with being new when they make a suspicious remark, I find that a lot of times there is more then someone "new" and in reality its a slip up.  Case in point, Lego last game slipped up and was new and many tried to let him off the hook because he was new, but in fact he was scum.  So I'll likely be reading back through some of the newer players comments, because many seem to eagerly looking to push a lynch like they a new scum.

 

-  Lego's early comment about doubting any scum from last game not likely scum this game.  It's random, anyone can be scum, and it's likely at least 1 from last game is likely scum again.  Seems awfully hard to try to cast himself town, but not enough to warrant any for sure scum thought, just something to remember later if other signs point  to him being possible scum.

 

- AbT being very quiet.  He chimed in hello and bye, and saying not much to say.  Rather odd of AbT to be honest, he's usually one who is quite active and talking no matter, and someone who pushes people to be active.  Could be something with amount of time he has right now.

 

My feelings on D1 has always been vote for someone if I really find something that sticks out.  It surely wont be solid 100% proof, but rather that then just picking someone because we need to lynch.  Losing to a Lurker two games ago, I will however look to take out a lurker D1 if no one is better.  D1 I think is the time to do so, after Day 1 I rather it be on more suspicion base then lurking.  This however does not mean complete inactive who aren't active on forums or looking here. Those people I do not agree with lynching D1.  Yes, inactive can hurt town, but I think we have a few substitutes already, and hopefully TW will be quick to replace them or prod people who are inactive.  I would rather they be replaced then lynching them without getting any read on them or thoughts, especially because they could be a town PR.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

FOS on Death: jumped on 1ceCream (but explained it away as 'good fun' or something, prepared to accept that), says Finster is ''confirmed'' when it is only D1, vote on me (OMGUS )

I did retract my "confirmed" claim after I realized how little evidence I had, I just got a vibe you know? Pretty shitty reason but it's just a feeling

[1ceCream]

Now that I look at it, I think I should renew my FoS on Death because of what Lego stated above. He does look suspicious in my eyes, voting for me early on and "confirming" FB as Town before walking it back a bit. 

 

My 'most watch' list:

 

Death, Lego, FB. 

[Lyner]

Town did a no-lynch last game and they won

 

 

Vote: No Lynch

[Samus]

IMO FInster is talking like he has nothing to hide, he's not trying to fit in, he's not lurking, no real definitive proof other than that so maybe not confirmed town but he has a very townie feeling in my eyes.

do you not think any reasonable scum would do the same thing though?

 

Don't think that's a valid point

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Not really an excuse as stated above and this might sound sus as hell but it's my first time and I'm just getting a vibe, monitor me if y'all want