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[KH-13] Pie E7 Mafia - Town wins

open 7-player

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#1
KevinH

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Pie E7
 
Roles
1 Mafia Goon
1 Mafia Roleblocker

1 Sane Cop
1 Doctor
3 Townies

 

You are a Vanilla Townie
Win Conditions:

  • You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.
Abilities:
  • You have no abilities, your strength is your vote and intellect.

 

 

Players
Canik, Mafia Goon
King Hitler, Vanilla Townie
Lyner, Cop
Mandarijn, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 1
Robert2424, Mafia Roleblocker, lynched Day 2
Supreme Leader MK, Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 1

The Warrior, Doctor

 

Rules

  • During the Day phase, each player may speak and vote inthread.
  • If a player receives the majority of the available votes during the Day, they are lynched.
  • At deadline, a player with half-majority will be lynched; the first player to reach the most votes over half-majority will be lynched in the event of a tie.
  • You may vote No Lynch.
  • After the Day, the game goes to Night.
  • The game thread is closed during the Night. The Mafia may speak to each other at Night.
  • All Active Roles may submit actions via PM at Night.
  • The Mafia can, as a faction, kill one player at Night.
  • After the Night, the game goes to Day.
  • All dead players (lynched or killed) can no longer participate in the game.
  • Basic rules for maintaining the integrity of the game thread are in effect (i.e. players may not quote their Role PMs, nor may they discuss the game outside the game thread unless otherwise permitted, etc.)
  • The game is won when only one faction remains in the game, or nothing can prevent the same.
  • Mass role-claiming is allowed.

Game Days will last as many real-life days as there are players alive.
Game Nights will last 48 hours but will include at least one weekday.



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#2
SeaBeeGipson

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Well, let's get this started.
Vote Lyner because I miss him

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#3
KevinH

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All role PMs sent.

 

Vote Count:

Lyner (1): King Hitler

Canik (0)
King Hitler (0)
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)
Supreme Leader MK (0)
The Warrior (0)

 

Not voting: Canik, Lyner, Mandarijn, Robert2424, Supreme Leader MK, The Warrior

 

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.

Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016



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#4
Lord MK

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Let's go.

Vote:No lynch
"Every morsel of your entire being alive to the infinite mystery of it all" - Captain Jack Sparrow





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#5
Lyner

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Turns out we only got 1 new player :P

 

Welcome MK!

 

Vote: Supreme Leader MK



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#6
The Warrior

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Hey all,

Interesting game setup, Kevin.

Let's dive right into the lynch vs no lynch debate:

Worst case scenario with seven players and two scum: the town can only afford to mislynch twice. This assumes that the scum team manages to successfully kill their target each night. The odds of correctly lynching on day one are 2 in 7 (~28.5%).

If we choose not to lynch on day 1 and the scum team is successful wth their kill we can really only afford to mislynch once.

There isn't a framer or any other role in this game that can return a "fake" result and we know that our cop is a sane cop so whoever our cop is can trust any results that they get.

It is probably best if we try and keep everybody actively talking so that we can get a good read on people and arm our cop with as much information as possible for his investigation choices at night. Anybody who is lurking or is not actively posting needs to be pressured.

With only two scum, if our cop happens to get lucky enough to investigate a scum early it might be worth considering what we think he should do with that information. Role claim and present his findings right away so that we can remove a scum early or perhaps he might try and provide some pressure on that person and see where it goes the next day and then determine whether or not he thinks he needs to role claim. If our cop can get a negative result in an early investigation we will be in really good shape.

If we happen to pressure someone and the pressure forces them to role claim as a VT (mass role-claiming is allowed) then it might not be a bad idea for our cop to investigate that person at night anyway to verify the claim. Since we know the exact roles in this setup the only real option for the scum is to claim VT since there are more of them and it would be more difficult for them to claim one of the town power roles without it going unchallenged.

Vote King Hitler.

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#7
Lord MK

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So if the cop role claim the doc can support him.
But we would need to pressure people and see if they crack.

Thanks lyner.

Vote : Lyner

Let's start with him.
He has a scum vibe.at least to me.
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#8
Canik

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Vote The Warrior

For not giving me a better role last game. :P



#9
The Warrior

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Scum detected.
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#10
Canik

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Shh don't ruin the big reveal! I was enjoying their anticipation. Guess that's what I get for trying to make a joke vote.

Unvote

btw, everyone be careful, it only takes 4 votes to auto-lynch someone I think. Also don't vote no-lynch as a placeholder for your vote.



#11
Robert2424

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Since TW declares canik is scum but won't vote for him. Let's spice things up a bit.

VOTE CANIK

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#12
Mandarijn

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So if the cop role claim the doc can support him.
But we would need to pressure people and see if they crack.

Thanks lyner.

Vote : Lyner

Let's start with him.
He has a scum vibe.at least to me.

So why does your scum radar go off on Lyner? 

 

Please always give some kind of reason of why you suspect someone, as just name dropping doesn't help anyone. ;)

 

Now all fluff votes have happened, we can start the real discussion. :D


ew

mandarijn juice

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#13
Lord MK

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Because
1)he is lyner
2)analysis of past threads reveals that players who welcome newbies with a vote turns out to be scum in majority of threads in these forums.

But now,since canik is called scum by TW but it doesn't vote for him,I think TW is suspicious.

Unvote Lyner

Vote TheWarrior.
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#14
Lyner

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Because
1)he is lyner

Wait how do you know that inside joke, surely your scum friends aren't dropping you this information? Suspicious

 

I'm keeping my vote here unless someone tries something funny.

 

 

 

Since TW wants to jump into business right away, here we go:

 

This is a fairly simple setup and no sure fire plan exists, but let's see some fun trivias:

1. If we mislynch a VT today, scum will have 50% chance to hit a PR(doc or cop) tonight, and also 50% chance to block them.

2. If we lynched a roleblocker today, we practically win the game with the cop revealing himself, and the doc protecting him every night.

3. Mass claiming is allowed.

 

Some possible plans(supposing we mislynch VT on day 1):

1. Cop comes out today and doc will protect him. Roleblocker will block the cop and the other scum will kill other people. Could be a mind game where the doc target other people than cop as well.

2. A brave VT pretends to be a cop and follow plan 1 above. Highly recommended to troll the scums. :P

3. Each of us point out one name we would want to target if we're the cop, since might be useful for cop's consideration? (I think we did something like this some past games ago?)

4. Go conventional and hope the doc and cop is a better players than the scums'

 

@Kevin some rules to clarify, can a roleblocker do a night kill? If yes, can he do both action on the same night(blocking + killing)?



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#15
The Warrior

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But now,since canik is called scum by TW but it doesn't vote for him,I think TW is suspicious.

Unvote Lyner

Vote TheWarrior.

Apparently sarcasm doesn't translate on the internet.

 

 

 

1. If we mislynch a VT today, scum will have 50% chance to hit a PR(doc or cop) tonight, and also 50% chance to block them.

Good point. This is important for us to consider in the lynch/no lynch debate. While we can technically afford to mislynch twice if we choose to lynch on day 1 it will obviously increase the odds to 50% for the scum of hitting a power role tonight. If we choose not to lynch on day 1 we will only technically be able to mislynch once before we're in trouble, but the odds of scum hitting a power role tonight will only be 40% instead of 50% otherwise. Either way the odds aren't really great for us (40% vs 50%). This is why it's important for everyone to be actively contributing so that we can make informed decisions.


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#16
Lord MK

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Based on many arguments, we can't afford to mis Lynch today.
But if we don't Lynch, it may cause long term problems.

We need to make correct decision.

1)if we manage to lynch mafia role blocker today,then cop can easily role claim and doc can protect him till we find the last scum.
2)but odds are in range of 14% of correct lynch.
So if we are able to crack some spills,then odds rise.
3)Cop can afford to RC only after scum RB is killed.
Unless the cop using subtle words,reveal himself but in a way which can't be easily deciphered.

Lyner is suspicious because he has not spoken with town-ish manner.

So my town list at this moment
1)KH
2)Mandarijn (he may be a doc,by observation of words used,trying to sound not too attractive to scum)
3)Mk
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#17
Robert2424

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Unless the cop using subtle words,reveal himself but in a way which can't be easily deciphered.
 

 

TBH, this don't work here. I've tried doing that before here and it goes over everybody head. It would work normally on the site I learned on or on Mafia Scum it would work, but I havn't seen it work here yet. 

 

Unvote

 

I'm not one for day one lynches, course this is the first game that I've played in with only 7 players. I always thought 9 was the min for a set up. but we'll see how this goes. So doing math, we only really have one lynch to catch scum. 2 if we lynch today. I can see this getting confusing real fast. 


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#18
SeaBeeGipson

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I get the setup is going to call for a fast game. I'm split on whether we should role claim or not.
If we hit the roleblocker, done deal. We won.

However, if we role claim and our 3 VTs come out, it leaves less people for the scum to go through to hit the cop or doctor. Scum could say they're VT but all that does it confuse us. We don't know who is who, but scum would know who is town or not and it would definitely narrow their search down.

As far as who to vote for, I'm usually pretty big on no lynch until more information comes out but I don't believe we have that luxury this game.

So far based on the limited posts, TW is definitely actively trying to help town and Mandarijn seems to already be raising the heat on people. I'd cast both them as townies.

MK stating he gets a scum vibe when barely any posts have been made is questionable. Not sure if fluff vote or seriously trying to get a wagon on Lyner.

Either way, unvote until I can figure out the best candidate for the lynch

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#19
The Warrior

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If we all agreed to a mass role-claim right off the bat we could expect that we will have 5 "VT's" claiming (the 3 real VT's and the 2 scum). It is possible that one of the scum could claim as a town power role in order to try to force our real power roles to reveal themselves but doing so would leave the town with a 50% chance of lynching a scum right off the bat so it's likely that the 2 scum would rather try to hide as VT's. I don't think that mass role-claiming is necessarily the town's best option at least at this time.

 

So my town list at this moment 1)KH 2)Mandarijn (he may be a doc,by observation of words used,trying to sound not too attractive to scum) 3)Mk

 

It seems like it's really early to make any meaningful town/scum lists. The other two people (besides yourself) on your town list had both only made one post prior to your list. King Hitler's post was a joke vote on Lyner and Mandarijn's post was just asking for your clarification on your Lyner vote.

 

I'm assuming that the 'scum vibe' that you got from Lyner was due to him voting for you in his first post. His vote was clearly a fluff vote welcoming you to the game. It seems like King Hitler's inclusion on your town list is only because he voted for Lyner (who you note has given off a scum vibe to you).

 

I'm not entirely sure why Mandarijn lands on your town list unless it's due to the fact that he is asking everyone to give actual reasons for their votes -- a request that I agree with since it is one of our best weapons on day 1.

 

Unvote


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#20
Canik

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This seems to boil down to two options I think.

Scenario 1: If we mass roleclaim, it could narrow down our chances of hitting scum from 7/2 to 5/2, which aren't bad odds. The only thing is if the scum know who the cop & doctor are, what's stopping them from roleblocking the doctor and killing the cop? We would HAVE to lynch today in this scenario, and hope we got lucky. If we kill the roleblocker then town will almost certainly win. If we miss, town will almost certainly lose. (Unless roleblocker can't use his power + the factional kill but I think they can)

Scenario 2: If we don't mass roleclaim then it seems we should not lynch. For one, if we try to lynch we're just going to force roleclaims anyway. For two, we won't know who the town PRs are. There is just as good a chance we hit them as hitting scum. So we no lynch, cop will probably survive the night and be able to confirm someone's alignment tomorrow. However he'll only have a 2 in 7 chance of investigating scum so there's a good chance he'll just be able to confirm 1 town.

At that point, cop would be confirmed + 1 town giving us a 5/2 chance of lynching scum. Doctor may be able to remain under cover and protect cop for another night. That would put us in a better position if we do kill scum D2, but if we mislynch we lose.

Conclusion:

Either way we're (probably) forced to vote with 5/2 odds. In Scenario 1, we will get a 2nd chance. Though our cop should die N1 and we won't get any info from him. However N2 we will have a 4/2 odds.

In Scenario 2, we have 0% chance D1 because we should no lynch in that scenario. D2 we will a 5/2 chance, or a 100% chance if we're lucky and cop does find a scum. Cop only has a 1/7 chance of finding scum tho.

This means we can either choose 5/2 & 4/2 odds. Or 5/2 & 7/1 odds. Not a tough decision to make. 5/2 + 4/2 is way better. Therefore we should go with Scenario 1. Unless there's something else I haven't considered.
 







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