288 replies to this topic

[Lysistrata]

Comparing the LA times poll to past polls is misleading. It is a totally new methodology that throws a lot of orthodoxy out the window. It also appears to be a very risky way to poll. Pollsters reckon you have a 1/20 chance of a misleading sample in each poll. Normally not an issue as you have lots of polls and get a new sample each time. If you have one sample for the entire election and it is wonky...well you're fucked.

Also the mechanism means it requires very engaged persons to partake in it who probably don't reflect an average voter. For example they may be more partisan than average.

Overall remember it's an experiment, an entirely untried method. Qudos is owed for trying this new concept in so public and open a way. And it could be right. It could also be wrong.

Overall there is also a common train of thought of polls can be wrong....Therefore Trump is doing better than polling suggests. Yep...could be true. But they could be wrong the other way. If you think that there is a possible 6-8% error on average...fair enough. It's possible and polls have been unreliable in the past. But before you cuddle your Trump teddy with glee remember that it could also mean Clinton in fact has a 14 point lead and is on the way to winning Texas, and the scenarios are about as likely as each other.

Also remember in 2008 it was the Bradley effect. In 2012 it was the poll unskewers. Whilst people have looked stupid following polls, the record of those that deny them is worse

Did you not read what I said? The LA Times Poll is the American Life Panel. They did the same thing in 2012. It was called the RAND poll. https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012 This year it's the LA Times Poll https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2016 Same place, same thing. It's not a "totally new methodology".

 

 

 

Nothing to do but comb over 

I see you. I see the jokes Lys, and I must say.... nice. 

 

Well it's good to know that everything I do is not considered deplorable by you Sir. Happy to make you smile for a change.

 

 

Whilst people have looked stupid following polls, the record of those that deny them is worse

 

That may be true, but Clinton is waaaaay ahead in the polls i've seen and I don't want to have my soul crushed by getting my hopes up that we don't end up with President T,  and then he gets elected.

 

Don't worry Sweetheart... you got this one in the bag, because I do believe the polls.

[Sister Midnight]

Never mind.

[SeaBeeGipson]

@Onbekende - sorry dont want to quote that long reply
I only have 2 responses to 2 seperate points. Where you say the population of "gun grabbers" as I will call them is small, I feel thats a little different. While the policies never really effect me, I've met several very vocal people against guns in general and believe they just shouldnt exist. Ive even met people who are so firm in that belief that they are disgusted by the military because they feel we 'worshipped gun culture.' Albeit, I've only had one lady ever tell me the second thing.

The other is the 1% statistic. I believe it is around 3% have served in the Army alive (not just GWOT; Vietnam and Ww2 included). 1.7% navy, 1.4% Air force and around 0.8% Marines. Of those, between 9% and 9.6% are females.

[Chaplain of death]

Quick tip. Calling a women who is not your relative or significant other "sweetheart", it comes across condescending and rude.

[onbekende]

@Onbekende - sorry dont want to quote that long reply
I only have 2 responses to 2 seperate points. Where you say the population of "gun grabbers" as I will call them is small, I feel thats a little different. While the policies never really effect me, I've met several very vocal people against guns in general and believe they just shouldnt exist. Ive even met people who are so firm in that belief that they are disgusted by the military because they feel we 'worshipped gun culture.' Albeit, I've only had one lady ever tell me the second thing.

The other is the 1% statistic. I believe it is around 3% have served in the Army alive (not just GWOT; Vietnam and Ww2 included). 1.7% navy, 1.4% Air force and around 0.8% Marines. Of those, between 9% and 9.6% are females.

 

You kinda defeated your own stance, you go for "very vocal people", those are virtually never in any significant numbers, most just don't care I'd think

 

almost 10%, seems nice!

[SeaBeeGipson]

@Onbekende - sorry dont want to quote that long reply
I only have 2 responses to 2 seperate points. Where you say the population of "gun grabbers" as I will call them is small, I feel thats a little different. While the policies never really effect me, I've met several very vocal people against guns in general and believe they just shouldnt exist. Ive even met people who are so firm in that belief that they are disgusted by the military because they feel we 'worshipped gun culture.' Albeit, I've only had one lady ever tell me the second thing.
The other is the 1% statistic. I believe it is around 3% have served in the Army alive (not just GWOT; Vietnam and Ww2 included). 1.7% navy, 1.4% Air force and around 0.8% Marines. Of those, between 9% and 9.6% are females.

 
You kinda defeated your own stance, you go for "very vocal people", those are virtually never in any significant numbers, most just don't care I'd think
 
almost 10%, seems nice!

I see your point to the first thing. Im usually under the impression if there are really vocal folks with an opinion, there are more with that same opinion that just don't speak up. But like you pointed out, ive met such a small number, near nonexistent really, I wouldnt consider them a majority by any means. Gun grabbers do exist though

[Lysistrata]

Quick tip. Calling a women who is not your relative or significant other "sweetheart", it comes across condescending and rude.

You should come to Las Vegas. Bring someone. Stay at the Venetian, or the Golden Nugget if you want to be on Fremont. My wife and I will take you to Settebello. They make the most amazing pizza, cooked in a wood burning oven. We'll have a couple glasses of Old Rasputin... it's a Russian Stout served in an 8 ounce brandy sniffer at 9 bucks a pop. Maybe go to the Martini Bar after for an Espresso Martini and hit the 4 card Keno machines for fun. After that... we'll take you back to your hotel, shake hands, and you can tell me if Republicans are condescending and rude.

[TheWanderer]

My wife and I will take you to Settebello. They make the most amazing pizza, cooked in a wood burning oven. We'll have a couple glasses of Old Rasputin... it's a Russian Stout served in an 8 ounce brandy sniffer at 9 bucks a pop. Maybe go to the Martini Bar after for an Espresso Martini and hit the 4 card Keno machines for fun.

We are absolutely doing this if I ever come to Vegas in the foreseeable future.

[Lysistrata]

 

My wife and I will take you to Settebello. They make the most amazing pizza, cooked in a wood burning oven. We'll have a couple glasses of Old Rasputin... it's a Russian Stout served in an 8 ounce brandy sniffer at 9 bucks a pop. Maybe go to the Martini Bar after for an Espresso Martini and hit the 4 card Keno machines for fun.

We are absolutely doing this if I ever come to Vegas in the foreseeable future.

 

Dude, we already discussed this... oh sorry... is calling someone "Dude", condescending and rude?

Hey that rhymes... "Hey Dude! You're Condescending and Rude!"

I will never understand this "politically correct" bullshit.

[Lysistrata]

Well it's been an interesting day. This harem of women suddenly trotting out claiming Donald Trump grabbed their snatch are quickly exposed as a flock of frauds. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/list-debunked-groper-allegations-corrupt-media-donald-trump/ It's all a typical political trick to hit your opponent with disgusting accusations and watch them chew up weeks defending themselves... and at the same time distract everyone from the infamous Goldman Sachs speeches that WikiLeaks dropped on us this morning.

 

Out of all the damage they contain, what amuses me the most is Hillary telling union leaders she will protect fracking, and that climate change environmentalists should "get a life"... Priceless!

 

My business partner has had open heart quadruple bypass surgery... which leaves us with the perfect time to take off a little early this time for our annual Anniversary trip. We're going away to Sedona, Arizona for a couple days... I'll return Tuesday night to terrorize the Progressives once more! Muahaha! 

[Icewolf]

Drug testing....the man who acted like he was on crack at the first debate wants drug testing....truly this man has nothing to say.

[Sister Midnight]

Drug testing....the man who acted like he was on crack at the first debate wants drug testing....truly this man has nothing to say.

You read my mind

[Lysistrata]

 

Drug testing....the man who acted like he was on crack at the first debate wants drug testing....truly this man has nothing to say.

You read my mind

 

He's been accused of being a coke addict by you guys because he obviously has a sinus blockage. I had the same problem. About 5 years ago and I had surgery to correct a deviated septum, and it's gone. So Trump says "test us", and of course, you guys have a problem with that too.

 

Last month Hillary Clinton collapsed in front of the world. She was tossed head first like a sack of potatoes and face planted the back seat of an SUV, in an effort to hide it... and you're not saying anything about that. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, Progressives are liars, cheaters, and thieves... now you can add hypocrites to the list.

[Icewolf]

Actually the "acting like on coke" is from the erratic hyper and mood swing aspects of his behaviour. And no I don't think he is on drugs. I just think he is that incapable of being coherent under questioning for an hour and a half.

My "nothing to say" is pointing at the stupidity of it. Clinton is not on drugs. Demanding a drugs test is rediculous. It really just sounds like more of Trump trying to find excuses for losing each debate. It has no substance. It is a pathetic attempt to distract from the awkwardly strong evidence that he is a serial sex offender, and in his lashing about he landed on something that once again shows he is out of his depth.

[Sister Midnight]

Drug testing....the man who acted like he was on crack at the first debate wants drug testing....truly this man has nothing to say.

You read my mind

He's been accused of being a coke addict by you guys because he obviously has a sinus blockage. I had the same problem. About 5 years ago and I had surgery to correct a deviated septum, and it's gone. So Trump says "test us", and of course, you guys have a problem with that too.

Last month Hillary Clinton collapsed in front of the world. She was tossed head first like a sack of potatoes and face planted the back seat of an SUV, in an effort to hide it... and you're not saying anything about that. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, Progressives are liars, cheaters, and thieves... now you can add hypocrites to the list.

You are distorting again. I not say I thought he has a coke addiction, I said I noticed he sniffed a lot and wondered if he had a cold. He denied sniffing, which was odd.

Actually the "acting like on coke" is from the erratic hyper and mood swing aspects of his behaviour. And no I don't think he is on drugs. I just think he is that incapable of being coherent under questioning for an hour and a half.
My "nothing to say" is pointing at the stupidity of it. Clinton is not on drugs. Demanding a drugs test is rediculous. It really just sounds like more of Trump trying to find excuses for losing each debate. It has no substance. It is a pathetic attempt to distract from the awkwardly strong evidence that he is a serial sex offender, and in his lashing about he landed on something that once again shows he is out of his depth.

That.

[Chaplain of death]

 

 

My wife and I will take you to Settebello. They make the most amazing pizza, cooked in a wood burning oven. We'll have a couple glasses of Old Rasputin... it's a Russian Stout served in an 8 ounce brandy sniffer at 9 bucks a pop. Maybe go to the Martini Bar after for an Espresso Martini and hit the 4 card Keno machines for fun.

We are absolutely doing this if I ever come to Vegas in the foreseeable future.

 

Dude, we already discussed this... oh sorry... is calling someone "Dude", condescending and rude?

Hey that rhymes... "Hey Dude! You're Condescending and Rude!"

I will never understand this "politically correct" bullshit.

 

 

Its quite a simple concept. Treat people with respect. A lot of people don't do it or apply it only to others which is bullshit and that's where I think the biggest problem comes in from people like yourself who see it as bullshit. Those people who only ask for respect and treat others with none are not right. That's fucking stupid and they don't deserve respect if they refuse to give it. The only reason I mentioned about "sweetheart" is because people who call others that they hardly know "sweetheart" are either waiting on someone in a service industry, or are talking down to you (which is exactly how it came across when you said it regardless of the intent). There will always be exceptions but that is what's going on the vast majority of the time. 

 

I've never said that you or republicans were deplorable. I find some of your opinions to be at odds with my own, and I find you to be hostile and confrontational when talking about politics instead of just talking about the issues but these qualities don't make me hate you as a person. 

[Sister Midnight]

And now a moment of levity

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qVMW_1aZXRk

[onbekende]

It is never a pretty sight when the "(S)He says it like we all think, (s)he does it like we all want." come out of the woodwork. Peoples thoughts don't always play nice with this thing called "society". Luckely not many devolve into "the peak" that is sociopathy...

[Sister Midnight]

It is never a pretty sight when the "(S)He says it like we all think, (s)he does it like we all want." come out of the woodwork. Peoples thoughts don't always play nice with this thing called "society". Luckely not many devolve into "the peak" that is sociopathy...

I have no idea what you just said.

[hilowe]

 

It is never a pretty sight when the "(S)He says it like we all think, (s)he does it like we all want." come out of the woodwork. Peoples thoughts don't always play nice with this thing called "society". Luckely not many devolve into "the peak" that is sociopathy...

I have no idea what you just said.

 

 

I read it as, each one is saying things that certain groups of people in the US think privately, but don't speak out loud, and even more rarely, actually act on.