287 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Nothing up my sleeve.

 

I generated the game using random numbers and the algorithm as specified in the link to mafiascum.net.

Since we only had 10 players rather than 13, it seemed most fair to delete a serial killer and 2 vanilla townies.

There is no logic such as balancing a cop with a godfather implied.

[Chaplain of death]

Where you getting that info from TW?

Again leaning to the amount of players 2 scum are more likely then 3. Normal C9 consist of a mafia godfather, mafia goon, a cop, a doc, and the rest VT's.

This however is not a normal game, and my theory is they have a role blocker since they have to deal with more townies then a normal c9 setup. If they have a role blocker it's safe to assume there is more town night actions then just a cop or doc. In witch case the fastest way we can determine if scum have a role blocker if somebody gets a "no result" from there night action.

 

In case this hasnt been answered. This is the possible scum team make up (the T's are from the RNG, T's have a 50% chance of showing up, he generates 7 times.)

 

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

 

SK can't show up. For the rest of you who don't research the setup, each T Kevin Generates is a vanilla townie. There's a 50% chance that its a vanilla townie and a 50% chance of it being one of a number of power roles. Thats why the scum team seems weak with only a goon and a godfather with 7T's, because the town has 0 power roles. Its likely we are somewhere around 4 T though given the 50% chance of T result, though we will figure that out better as roles are revealed.

 

If you want to research our likely hoods of roles and their strengths go to the C9++ page on Mafiascum. It lays it out quite nicely. 

 

We already know that there is either a pair of masons, more (highly unlikely), or no masons at all as if there were a single M result Kevin would have confirmed someone as town at start.

[Rafay]

Vote: FB

 

Jealous much??

[Lyner]

Okay this setup seems interesting

 

That means if every townies role claim we can accurately predict scum's roles and ratio, although I wouldn't recommend that.

 

Also CoD brought up a good point, I think it is likely that we have at least 2 masons, or none at all (which means more other PRs)

 

 

I think we should first day lynch this time

[Finster Baby]

Vote: FB

 

Jealous much??

No, I just hate you and want you dead.

[iSocialism]

So does that mean there is only one VT?

[The Warrior]

So does that mean there is only one VT?

What makes you think this? I would highly doubt that there is only 1 VT and 7 Town PR's with the scum team only having a Goon and Godfather.

[Robert2424]

Well, I can see masons, they are like VT's just with the knowledge of one confirmed Townie or 2. I'm not entirely a fan of the Mason role, but it has balancing capabilities.

Though guessing how many town pr's only helps the mafia. We have a decent guess on the mafia roles. However if we do have 7 town power roles that mean 3 mafia. I don't know how isoc would be wondering about that, unless he knows somehow there are either 7 prs or 3 mafia. Whatever the case he should be watched. That's odd he picked that out of the list unless he's going off of knowledge the majority doesn't have.

@COD I didn't fully read that post from Kevin until a few posts ago as that info should of been in his first or second post of the game. But thanks anyways for making sure nobody was left out.

UNVOTE

there's a small tussel between FB and rafay but I feel it's more distracting or carried over from a different game. I don't feel either are focused right now.

I have a short list already of townie members, and whom I suspect already. A productive day one without a Lynch. It's a huge plus.

[Finster Baby]

I stand by my vote.  Rafay will lurk and lurk and add nothing of substance to the hunt for scum, just like every other game I've been with him in.

 

I expect a NL will carry the day, and am OK with that.

[iSocialism]

I said one thing that's is a question, and Robert wants me watched. I wonder why. My question about there only being one VT is as, there can only be one, not two of them since two VT and a SK have been deleted. Also I don't see where you guys came up with the conclusion that there is 7 PR. I see the 3 scums, but not that the remaining players all have PRs.

[Ali bin Turban]

I really like the way current voting is going.

 

vote Rafay

 

Contribute or die.

 

As for the setup, with the possibilities KevinH have presented:

 

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer  : ~2% chance of happening
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer : ~33% chance of happening
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer : ~55% chance of happening
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer : ~10% chance of happening

 

I'm not expecting first one to be the case but for rest of them...it's all possible.

 

Okay this setup seems interesting That means if every townies role claim we can accurately predict scum's roles and ratio, although I wouldn't recommend that. Also CoD brought up a good point, I think it is likely that we have at least 2 masons, or none at all (which means more other PRs) I think we should first day lynch this time

 

RCing would be a very bad move. Due to the fact there are multiple roles possible scum can easily blend in by making fake claim. In case of mass claim if a scum says for example he's a cop, you won't be able to tell who's lying. What's worse it may happen that town claims + scum claims will add nicely and thus we'll think that we're in a different setup - and that will lead to misslynches.

[KevinH]

that info should of been in his first or second post of the game.

 
First post:

C9++ include ...

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.

 

Vote Count:

Rafay (3): Finster Baby, Kaziocore, Ali bin Turban,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Finster Baby (1): Rafay,
Ali bin Turban (0):
Chaplain of Death
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Lyner, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior, Robert2424,

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I wouldnt suggest anyone RC soon. I feel we should play as if we have a 7 PR/3 Scum setup. Worst case, we are wrong and get 1 more mislynch. It also allows us to think more carefully as mislynching would led us to hitting a PR. I say we just play with that mentality.

On that note, Rafay's lurking is pretty toxic every game I play and if there isn't any substanable post in my opinion before the days end, I believe that should be our target. I just rather not vote now to prevent the mishap on the HP game where we ended the day in record speed.

[Rafay]

No, I just hate you and want you dead.

 

Thats what a mafia goon would say.

[Lyner]

Eh Kazio also lurked last time and won as scum, so definitely on my first day lynch list too

 

Contributions wise tho, Rafay has done fewer this game

 

 

Vote: Rafay for now

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (4): Finster Baby, Kaziocore, Ali bin Turban, Lyner,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Finster Baby (1): Rafay,
Ali bin Turban (0):
Chaplain of Death
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior, Robert2424,

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.
 

[Robert2424]

Told you guys lurking a scum tell before. But nobody listened till it became a problem, or simply cause I said it first.

I hate to tell you, "I told you so", but, I told you so.

Also I thought it was randomly generated Ali?

[The Warrior]

Current post count:

  

KevinH  7

Robert2424 7

The Warrior 5

SeaBeeGipson 3

Finster Baby 3

Lyner 3

iSocialism 3

Kaziocore 2

Chaplain of death 2

Rafay 2

Ali bin Turban 1

 

 

I'd like to hear more from everyone with 2 or fewer posts.

 

I am leaning towards Rafay right now as well. The style of play just does not sit well with me. If you are town you should be contributing. That's really all there is to it.

 

Vote Rafay

[Finster Baby]

It *is* day 1. but no activity = bad.

 

No, I just hate you and want you dead.

 

Thats what a mafia goon would say.

 

Maybe if I were a goon you'd be right.  I'm not a goon, again, but you go on with your non-active ways.  This'll be a short game for you.

[Rafay]

I am leaning towards Rafay right now as well. The style of play just does not sit well with me. If you are town you should be contributing. That's really all there is to it.   Vote Rafay

 

You just went against yourself. Ali has posted less than me and still you're voting for me.

 

If its an anti-Rafay game; just tell me. I would've sat out of it.

 

I'm a simple VT nothing to claim at all......