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[KH-16] C9++ Mafia -- Town Wins

semi-open 10-player

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#1
KevinH

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C9++ include some variation of the following roles:


Vanilla Townie, Town Cop, Town 1-Shot Cop, Town Doctor, Town 1-Shot Doctor, Town Vigilante, Town 1-Shot Vigilante, Town Innocent Child, Town Mason, Town Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Godfather, Serial Killer

 

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.
 

Vanilla Townie

  • Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Vanilla Townie.
Abilities:
  • Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.
Win condition:
  • You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one town player alive.

 

 
Players
The Warrior, Vigilante, killed Night 1.

Rafay, Mafia Roleblocker, lynched Day 2.

Lyner, Mason, killed Night 2.

iSocialism, Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 3.

Ali bin Turban, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 4.
Kaziocore, Mafia Godfather, lynched Day 5.

Chaplain of Death, Cop
Finster Baby, Vanilla Townie
Robert2424, Mason
SeaBeeGipson, Vanilla Townie

Rules

  • During the Day phase, each player may speak and vote inthread.
  • If a player receives the majority of the available votes during the Day, they are lynched.
  • At deadline, a player with half-majority will be lynched; the first player to reach the most votes over half-majority will be lynched in the event of a tie.
  • You may vote No Lynch.
  • After the Day, the game goes to Night.
  • The game thread is closed during the Night. The Mafia may speak to each other at Night.
  • All Active Roles may submit actions via PM at Night.
  • The Mafia can, as a faction, kill one player at Night.
  • After the Night, the game goes to Day.
  • All dead players (lynched or killed) can no longer participate in the game.
  • Basic rules for maintaining the integrity of the game thread are in effect (i.e. players may not quote their Role PMs, nor may they discuss the game outside the game thread unless otherwise permitted, etc.)
  • The game is won when only one faction remains in the game, or nothing can prevent the same.
  • Mass role-claiming is allowed

Game Days will last as many real-life days as there are players alive.
Game Nights will last 48 hours but will include at least one weekday.



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#2
The Warrior

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Interesting setup.

 

In a game with 10 players it seems likely that there will be 2 or 3 scum. If I had to guess I would say that there are probably 3 (30%) even though it's a little bit higher than the standard 25% rule of thumb. I just couldn't see there only being 2 scum (20%) and 8 townies.

 

Have to leave work now, but I'll post more thoughts tonight or tomorrow morning.


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#3
KevinH

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All role PMs have been sent.
 
Vote Count:

Ali bin Turban
Chaplain of Death
Finster Baby
iSocialism
Kaziocore
Lyner
Rafay
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Chaplain of Death, Finster Baby, iSocialism, Kaziocore, Lyner, Rafay, Robert2424, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior

 

With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.


Mechanics

  • This setup uses a Daystart
  • Serial Killer chooses Investigation Immunity or 1-shot BP pregame.
  • Cops are guaranteed to be sane
  • Cops get results in the form of Town/Antitown or Innocent/Guilty - SK's show up as Antitown/Guilty unless they have Inv-Immunity.
  • Innocent Child is revealed at the start of Day 1 by the mod
  • Doctors prevent one night kill.
  • Kills are indistinguishable - do not use varying flavour for Mafia, Vigilante or Serial Killer night kills.
  • Mafia Roleblocker cannot kill AND block in the same night.


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#4
Finster Baby

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VOTE: Rafay

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#5
KevinH

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The reference link in the first post has been corrected.



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#6
Chaplain of death

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Vote Kaziocore

 

For disappearing. I missed you!



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#7
Robert2424

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VOTE ALI

We all knew it was coming.

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#8
Robert2424

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C9's are usually pretty basic setups. The ++'s indicates this is not. Hince other roles are possible. If I had to guess about the setup, 1 godfather, (assuming there's a cop) and with the role blockers ability available on both town and mafia, we may have multiple people with power roles. I agree with mafia having 2-3 members, but since mafia wins more often then town Dose, I'm going to guess 2 mafia member. So again, just a theory, 8 town 2 mafia. If we miss Lynch one we will be in do or die on day 3 if we don't hit mafia by then, while we won't be in such bad shape till day 4 with a day 1 no Lynch.

Therefore I'll be going for a no Lynch day one for more time to find scum and better odds on day 4 if it where to get that bad.

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#9
iSocialism

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Vote Lyner

 

He's always scum, and I haven't said that in awhile


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#10
Lyner

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C9++ include some variation of the following roles:


Vanilla Townie, Town Cop, Town 1-Shot Cop, Town Doctor, Town 1-Shot Doctor, Town Vigilante, Town 1-Shot Vigilante, Town Innocent Child, Town Mason, Town Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Godfather, Serial Killer

 

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.

 

You hear it boys, no SK, and since two VTs are deleted I guess we will have more role powers here

 

 

 

  • Innocent Child is revealed at the start of Day 1 by the mod

 

And no kids either, as far as I can see



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#11
The Warrior

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C9++ include some variation of the following roles:


Vanilla Townie, Town Cop, Town 1-Shot Cop, Town Doctor, Town 1-Shot Doctor, Town Vigilante, Town 1-Shot Vigilante, Town Innocent Child, Town Mason, Town Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Godfather, Serial Killer

 

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.

 

You hear it boys, no SK, and since two VTs are deleted I guess we will have more role powers here

This is another reason why I think we could be looking at three scum. If there was a SK in the game it would make sense to only have two scum but without one present, I just can't see there only being two anti-town players.

 

My guess is that there are likely three scum and to keep the game fairly balanced at least one of them is probably a mafia goon.

 

Assuming 3 scum present:

-We only have a 30% chance of lynching scum on day 1.

-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day (including day 1) and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the lynch on day 4. It would then be 3v3 and I assume that equals a mafia win.

-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day EXCEPT the first day and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the kill on night 4. It would then be 3v3 on day 5 and I assume that equals a mafia win.

 

Either way we can only afford to miss-lynch 3 times. Anything after that would rely on us having a doctor or hitting a scum.


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#12
KevinH

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Vote Count:


Rafay (1): Finster Baby,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Ali bin Turban (1): Robert2424,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Chaplain of Death
Finster Baby
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Kaziocore, Lyner, Rafay, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.

Your possible scum combinations:

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer 
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer



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#13
SeaBeeGipson

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Assuming 3 scum present:
-We only have a 30% chance of lynching scum on day 1.
-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day (including day 1) and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the lynch on day 4. It would then be 3v3 and I assume that equals a mafia win.
-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day EXCEPT the first day and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the kill on night 4. It would then be 3v3 on day 5 and I assume that equals a mafia win.
 
Either way we can only afford to miss-lynch 3 times. Anything after that would rely on us having a doctor or hitting a scum.


Vote Count:


Rafay (1): Finster Baby,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Ali bin Turban (1): Robert2424,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Chaplain of Death
Finster Baby
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:
Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Kaziocore, Lyner, Rafay, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.
Your possible scum combinations:

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer 
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer


We can confirm 3 scum maximum with this. I'd go more for 2 scum as the deadline vote is 3. It seems rather unorthodox to me to allow the scum to have the numbers to secure a deadline vote in the first day.

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#14
The Warrior

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Assuming 3 scum present:
-We only have a 30% chance of lynching scum on day 1.
-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day (including day 1) and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the lynch on day 4. It would then be 3v3 and I assume that equals a mafia win.
-In a worst case scenario, assuming a single lynch every day EXCEPT the first day and a single night kill each night, and assuming we lynch incorrectly every day, we would lose after the kill on night 4. It would then be 3v3 on day 5 and I assume that equals a mafia win.
 
Either way we can only afford to miss-lynch 3 times. Anything after that would rely on us having a doctor or hitting a scum.

 


We can confirm 3 scum maximum with this. I'd go more for 2 scum as the deadline vote is 3. It seems rather unorthodox to me to allow the scum to have the numbers to secure a deadline vote in the first day.

 

That's a good point actually and I tend to agree with you that 2 scum would be more likely because of this.

 

However, if there are only 2 scum and I understand Kevin correctly, he just confirmed that the only possible 2 scum combination is: Goon + Godfather. That is a rather weak scum team and would seem to indicate to me that the town is composed of fewer power roles than we might have originally guessed or they are mostly limited to 1-shot actions.


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#15
Robert2424

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Where you getting that info from TW?

Again leaning to the amount of players 2 scum are more likely then 3. Normal C9 consist of a mafia godfather, mafia goon, a cop, a doc, and the rest VT's.

This however is not a normal game, and my theory is they have a role blocker since they have to deal with more townies then a normal c9 setup. If they have a role blocker it's safe to assume there is more town night actions then just a cop or doc. In witch case the fastest way we can determine if scum have a role blocker if somebody gets a "no result" from there night action.

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#16
SeaBeeGipson

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Well from the possible combinations, we are sitting at a 50/50 on it being 2 or 3. 25% they have a GF AND roleblocker which would pose for a fairly decent scum team.
I'm not sure the PRs we have in play nor do I want to dab too far into that discussion, lest we risk a PR exposing themselves accidentally for the scum.

That also means we either have a 30% chance to hit a scum or a 20% chance. Both fairly low odds to me.

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#17
Kaziocore

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Your possible scum combinations: TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer  TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer  TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer  T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer

75% of godfather boys so don't depend on the cops

 

Vote: Rafay

 

 

Vote Kaziocore

 

For disappearing. I missed you!

 

I'm always lurking here bruh


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#18
Robert2424

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For balancing sake 3 seems too many for 10 players. If there was 11 then I could see 3. For a mod you don't want to make a scum team too weak. But since a mafia is the only other option Kevin was considering, a third power townie seems likely to me. Possibly a one shot.
No lurking kazio. I won't hesitate to vote for you.

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#19
Kaziocore

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For balancing sake 3 seems too many for 10 players. If there was 11 then I could see 3. For a mod you don't want to make a scum team too weak. But since a mafia is the only other option Kevin was considering, a third power townie seems likely to me. Possibly a one shot.

 

Vote Count:


Rafay (1): Finster Baby,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Ali bin Turban (1): Robert2424,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Chaplain of Death
Finster Baby
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Kaziocore, Lyner, Rafay, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.

Your possible scum combinations:

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer 
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer 
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer

Since KevinH posted this

we are at the mercy of RNG


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#20
Robert2424

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Now I see those possible combinations. I don't like any of them for a 10 person setup and wouldn't use them. I have to think Kevin has something up his sleeve still.

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