287 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

unvote

 

Wow, that was to quick. Careful guys...we were just one vote from finishing the day prematurely.

[SeaBeeGipson]

unvote
 
Wow, that was to quick. Careful guys...we were just one vote from finishing the day prematurely.

Vote CoD
Because.

Hopefully it poses as enough of a message that lurking isn't a favorable or fun playstyle any longer.

[Ali bin Turban]

 

I am leaning towards Rafay right now as well. The style of play just does not sit well with me. If you are town you should be contributing. That's really all there is to it.   Vote Rafay

 

You just went against yourself. Ali has posted less than me and still you're voting for me.

 

If its an anti-Rafay game; just tell me. I would've sat out of it.

 

I'm a simple VT nothing to claim at all...... 

 

Noone's expecting you to claim anything. We're expecting you to stay active, share your thoughts and contribute to the game. If you don't feel like being able to do that there's always and option to ask for a replacement.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (4): Finster Baby, Kaziocore, Lyner, The Warrior,
Kaziocore (1): Chaplain of Death,
Lyner (1): iSocialism,
Finster Baby (1): Rafay,
Chaplain of Death (1): SeaBeeGipson,
Ali bin Turban (0):
iSocialism
Robert2424
SeaBeeGipson
The Warrior

 

No lynch:

Not voting: Robert2424, Ali bin Turban,

 
With 10 alive, it take 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, December 8, at 17:00 EST.
 

[Ali bin Turban]

Told you guys lurking a scum tell before. But nobody listened till it became a problem, or simply cause I said it first.

I hate to tell you, "I told you so", but, I told you so.

Also I thought it was randomly generated Ali?

Hmm, somehow my post didn't get posted. Anyway, I'm not sure what you mean, Robert. Kevinh's said it was all randomly generated, but still different results have different probabilities (that's because game setup was not determined with just one roll but with seven).

 

If we're facing case one (2% probability) that means there's just one PR (who might be 1-shot Vig for example) and that means we have to push lynches, because there's no other way to find out scums. If we're in other scenarios then we're having more PR's, but still we're not guaranteed to have any investigation roles, so sitting out NL might not be the best move.

Also it would be irony for Rafay to be our only cop...but luckily that's not the case, since he admitted himself that he's not (still, so quick buildup of a bandwagon is a bit worrying).

[The Warrior]

 

I am leaning towards Rafay right now as well. The style of play just does not sit well with me. If you are town you should be contributing. That's really all there is to it.   Vote Rafay

 

You just went against yourself. Ali has posted less than me and still you're voting for me.

 

If its an anti-Rafay game; just tell me. I would've sat out of it.

 

I'm a simple VT nothing to claim at all...... 

 

In terms of post count you are correct that, prior to my post, Ali had one fewer post than you did. However, Ali's one post was worth more than your two posts in my opinion:

 

 

I really like the way current voting is going.

 

vote Rafay

 

Contribute or die.

 

As for the setup, with the possibilities KevinH have presented:

 

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer  : ~2% chance of happening
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer : ~33% chance of happening
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer : ~55% chance of happening
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer : ~10% chance of happening

 

I'm not expecting first one to be the case but for rest of them...it's all possible.

 

 

 

Okay this setup seems interesting That means if every townies role claim we can accurately predict scum's roles and ratio, although I wouldn't recommend that. Also CoD brought up a good point, I think it is likely that we have at least 2 masons, or none at all (which means more other PRs) I think we should first day lynch this time

 

RCing would be a very bad move. Due to the fact there are multiple roles possible scum can easily blend in by making fake claim. In case of mass claim if a scum says for example he's a cop, you won't be able to tell who's lying. What's worse it may happen that town claims + scum claims will add nicely and thus we'll think that we're in a different setup - and that will lead to misslynches.

 

VS.

 

Vote: FB

 

Jealous much??

 

 

No, I just hate you and want you dead.

 

Thats what a mafia goon would say.

 

 

Your two short posts consisted of "no u". Ali's consisted of game setup analysis and advising people not to role claim and make things any easier on the scum.

 

You don't have to be the top poster, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect you to contribute (if you are town). If you are willing to offer something more, I will reconsider my vote.

 

So other than Finster, who catches your eye up to this point, Rafay?

[iSocialism]

So, Rafay have you already RC as a VT?

[Robert2424]

@Isoc, there should be nothing you have to worry about unless your hiding something. 

 

@TW, what made you put Rafay so easily at L-1? Did you not see how many votes where on Rafay at that point? Mafia could of placed the last vote and got him lynched. 

[The Warrior]

You're assuming a couple things:
1) That Rafay is town and would therefore be voted for by the mafia.
2) That there was a scum member left who could vote for Rafay. If Rafay was town he very well already could have had a scum or multiple scums voting for him before I cast my vote.
3) That the mafia would want to hammer a vote on him early and risk exposing the member that cast the final vote.

I don't do the whole FOS bs. I voted for Rafay because he was the person that I trusted the least at the time. If he would have gotten lynched and turned up town it would suck but at least then we would have known what he was and had something to look at moving forward.

Since Ali has unvoted for now, Rafay is no longer in immediate danger of being lynched so he has time to share his thoughts. I'd like to hear what you think up to this point, Rafay. Do you actually suspect Finster or was it more of a omgus vote on him?

[SeaBeeGipson]

I'm more interested in what we gain from a Rafay lynch. To me, it wont show much.

He comes up scum, good job. We got one scum down. This does not mean the alternate scums arent on his wagon or arenot hiding in his wagon. We dont get much towards our next scum.

If he comes up town, not too much harm. It seems heavily town sided if we have only 2 scum, and we have some mislynches to go through. But what can we learn? We look at the wagon and it could be a multitude of excuses from "just lynching an active lurker" to anything else. It leaves an easy spot for scum to hide for another day. (Note: this is one reason why lurking hurts the town.)

[Robert2424]

that wagon not only formed fast but nearly went though on day 1, and early. We would of gained nothing from the lynch if he flipped town other then a townie down with limited info with proballty the last guy on the wagon stating, "I didn't know he had that many votes already". Especially if it was a newer player. 

[Rafay]

So, Rafay have you already RC as a VT?

 

Yeah.

 

I bet that there are at least 2 scum in my wagon which formed really quickly. The rest are just jealous votes tbh.... 

[Robert2424]

Jealous....lol. 

 

Rafay, is that all your going to post? 

[Lyner]

That escalated quickly tbh, at least Rafay learned to roleclaim instead of being stubborn like he usually did

 

 

We have almost a week left before deadline, I'd rather pressure other lurkers first

 

 

Vote: Kaziocore

[Rafay]

That escalated quickly tbh, at least Rafay learned to roleclaim instead of being stubborn like he usually did     We have almost a week left before deadline, I'd rather pressure other lurkers first  

 

On that note......

 

Vote: CoD..... 

 

I'm not the only 'lurker'; actually I'm not even a lurker. I'm pretty active. You guys need to develop and better peripheral vision.

[Finster Baby]

If Rafay's gonna be active, then I'll:

UNVOTE

With plenty of time to see who is actually gonna participate.

[Ali bin Turban]

Since Ali has unvoted for now, Rafay is no longer in immediate danger of being lynched so he has time to share his thoughts. I'd like to hear what you think up to this point, Rafay. Do you actually suspect Finster or was it more of a omgus vote on him?

 

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

That being said we shouldn't forgot about Kazio (while CoD posted little too, there's substance in his post), it seems he's just the same as Rafay and he should post some thoughts too.

 

I'm more interested in what we gain from a Rafay lynch. To me, it wont show much.

He comes up scum, good job. We got one scum down. This does not mean the alternate scums arent on his wagon or arenot hiding in his wagon. We dont get much towards our next scum.

If he comes up town, not too much harm. It seems heavily town sided if we have only 2 scum, and we have some mislynches to go through. But what can we learn? We look at the wagon and it could be a multitude of excuses from "just lynching an active lurker" to anything else. It leaves an easy spot for scum to hide for another day. (Note: this is one reason why lurking hurts the town.)

 

That's the problem of this scenario. I'd really like to lynch lurkers because of their toxic playstyle, but most of the time it hurt's town (like 3 in 4 times we loose a mislynch chance to enforce activity policy). It would be great if instead of us Mod had made a quick work of slackers, especially since they're the ones destroying his game. Also we have just 10 players and replacement should be easily possible.

 

Anyway, how things look for us right now:

 - We have no idea if there's a cop aboard (there's 32% chance that we don't have any, 40% we have 1-shot, 21% we have standard cop and 7% chance we got something more) so NL stance would be a risky move.

 

HOWEVER:

 

 - If there are 3 scum (and as I've shown earlier it's almost 2 times more probable) we're allowed to make just one mistake. So in that scenario misslynch today would mean LYLO tomorrow (technically we're in a better position if there are 2 scums...but that means there were 7 T's which equals to no PRs)

 - On the other hand we're allowed to make one NL (due to even number of players) without loosing a misslynch chance. But for it to have effect we'd need to have cop...and we don't have that knowledge.

 

It's not a trivial choice.

[Rafay]

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

 

I'm always anti-1st day lynch every game. I believe it reveals nothing and decreases the town's chances of winning by losing 2 townies on D1/N1.... I'll be anti-lynching here too. That said we do have time to calculate and scum would want the day to end fast and some1 die early; did you guys notice how quickly the wagon formed against me; hence I bet that there were mafia in my wagon. I  believe that there are 2 mafia and serial killer in this game. Just a hunch, I think Kevin likes SK flavour.

 

 

Do you actually suspect Finster or was it more of a omgus vote on him?

 

My first vote which was for FB was an omgus vote but now I've voted for CoD cuz we were talking about lynching inactives and I believe he's more inactive than me......

[The Warrior]

 

I second TW's question. Share your thoughts Rafay. What do you think about the setup? How do you envision it to play out? Do you have any advice for the town? For now you're just posting without contributing.

 

I'm always anti-1st day lynch every game. I believe it reveals nothing and decreases the town's chances of winning by losing 2 townies on D1/N1.... I'll be anti-lynching here too. That said we do have time to calculate and scum would want the day to end fast and some1 die early; did you guys notice how quickly the wagon formed against me; hence I bet that there were mafia in my wagon. I  believe that there are 2 mafia and serial killer in this game. Just a hunch, I think Kevin likes SK flavour.

Kevin confirmed in the OP that there is no SK in this game:

 

 

C9++ include some variation of the following roles:

Vanilla
Townie, Town Cop, Town 1-Shot Cop, Town Doctor, Town 1-Shot Doctor, Town Vigilante, Town 1-Shot Vigilante, Town Innocent Child, Town Mason, Town Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Godfather, Serial Killer

 

The setup was randomly generated as specified for 13 players.  A serial killer and 2 vanilla townies were deleted.

Without one present do you think that it is more likely that there are three scums instead of two?

 

 

@COD/Kazio: What are your thoughts? Do you have any reads on anyone at this point?

[Rafay]

Without one present do you think that it is more likely that there are three scums instead of two?

 

Then there are 3 scums definitely. We should play with a mindset and strategy of 3 scums.