894 replies to this topic

[sojourner]

After reading the Wiki on no lynch I am going to use that knowledge and my gut to vote...
vote-Falzis

[Electric Mango]

After reading the Wiki on no lynch I am going to use that knowledge and my gut to vote...
vote-Falzis

????

Tell us what about it that made you vote that way. You're being too vague which makes me suspicious. If you were scum it could be seen as dog piling.

[Kaziocore]

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.

So if by the end of this week, one guy got 6 votes will he still not be lynched?

No. 4 will be needed at deadline.

Edited by molestargazer, 25 June 2009 - 04:10 PM.

[Falzis]

After reading the Wiki on no lynch I am going to use that knowledge and my gut to vote...
vote-Falzis

What knowledge did you get and why did your gut tell you to vote for me? I'm starting to think we really should have lynched you on D1. 3 Votes on you and not even just 1 more for a half-majority lynch? Even just one Mafia could have killed you if you were townie.

I am inclined to believe that the 3 who voted for you are all townies, I'm more or less sure of that (junk - proven townie, plus EM and I).

OH MY GOD I AM HAVING A EUREKA MOMENT!!!

sojourner is really scum. there's no other way to it. now, some people here may not believe it because I will be saying I am townie, and you have no way of proving that until I die.

but hear me out. I am townie!! junk was proven to be townie (cop). EM I really am inclined to believe is a townie. so if you follow these assumptions, there were 3 townie votes on sojo.

now, there are at least 2 (a very conservative number, other people estimate 3-4 but let's assume 2 for the sake of my argument) scum in this game. even just one of the two could have voted for sojo for a half-majority lynch (4 votes instead of 7).

if sojo was townie, and we assume Kevin's correct that mafia want to lynch on D1 to lessen townies, then sojo should have been dead on D1!! this could only mean that sojo wasn't a townie and his fellow scum didn't vote for him.

my original hunch WAS correct!! (i posted this theory just right after D1 i think but narsis shot it down).

now, i know what you're thinking. this is assuming that I and EM are townie. i know i can't definitively prove to you my townieness (or EM's for that matter) but you can judge on your own based on our posts. i hope you trust and believe in me when i say i think i am on the scum's tracks!!

but let's assume for the sake of argumentation that EM and I, or one of us, are scum. if scum voted for sojo, then that means he is townie. if sojo is townie, and scum voted for a townie on D1 and stuck to it until the end of D1, this means that the scum was/were willing to lay their cards out on D1 and intended to go for a D1 lynch.

but let's look at the first one. are scum really willing to lay their cards out early on D1? we've discussed this extensively and i think we all know that scum generally try to blend with the town and lie low, so the first conclusion is counter intuitive, which means that the premise - that EM and I, or one of us, are scum - is false!

but wait, there's more convincing logic! let's look at the second one. if the scum intended to go for a D1 lynch, this could only mean two things.

one, that if EM and I are both scum, that there are only 2 scum in this game - which is highly improbable according to the estimations of the veterans in this game (ie. Narsis and Kevin's estimate of 3-4 scum) - thus still proving that EM and I couldn't be scum!

two, that if one of us, EM or I, is scum, that the other scum(s) didn't vote for sojo - which is inconsistent with the manifested intention to lynch on D1 - thus proving all the more that EM or I couldn't be scum!

SO THE CONCLUSION IS, sojo couldn't be a townie if even just one of EM or I were scum since sojo wasn't lynched on D1.

oh my god oh my god.

EUREKA!!

Unvote
Vote: sojourner

[Falzis]

EBWOP: but the above one is still correct, i'm just not sure on the grammatical difference in meaning on the positioning of the words even and if (I'm thinking in Tagalog and just translating in English lol we have different subject-verb and sentence agreements)

SO THE CONCLUSION IS,

sojo couldn't be a townie even if just one of EM or I were scum since sojo wasn't lynched on D1.

[molestargazer]

VOTE COUNT
Falzis (4): Martino, Theophilos, KevinH, sojourner
KevinH (3): Sir Jesus, Aquinas, Narsis
Nerau (1): Electric Mango
sojourner (1): Falzis

Not Voting (3): Nerau, partyin01, Kaziocore

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.
4 needed to lynch at deadline.

- Sir Jesus is V/LA
- partyin01 and Nerau are being replaced.
- Narsis will be replaced from June 29th.
- Falzis will be V/LA from July 1st - July 11th
- Deadline is MONDAY.

My Windows 7 installation is lacking office software that can read my Excel file containing the list of replacements.
I'm downloading OpenOffice now, I'll send out PMs to replacements today or tomorrow.
Sorry for the delay.

Edited by molestargazer, 25 June 2009 - 07:08 PM.

[Narsis]

a few things:

first, you are right that at least one scum didn't vote for soj yesterday. if there are mafia in the game then there is absolutely no way there could only be 2. not in a 12 person game. i know mole and his modding way to well for that to even be an option.

however, this doesn't mean you and EM weren't scum. assuming at least 3 scum, then both of you could easily be scum and be voting.

and now we get to the WIFOM. you are assuming that all the scum would either not vote or that all the scum would vote. yet i've often seen it where only one or two scum voted, and often for different sides of the debate and others just sat by without voting(D1 at least). the scum's intention may be to not lynch, but knowing that voting on D1 is an acceptable strategy by many vets had some of their members vote. you also assume that scum want to lie low, which is generally the case. but i have often been surprised by what scum do. EM is one case of a player putting his neck out whether as scum or town.

however, what you have proven is that KevinH's logic of scum wanting to lynch because it is bad for the town is false unless soj is mafia.

that said the case is well grounded in logic and imo is stronger then other cases we have had.

Unvote
Vote: Sojourner

[Falzis]

VOTE COUNT
Falzis (4): Martino, Theophilos, KevinH, sojourner
KevinH (3): Sir Jesus, Aquinas, Narsis
Nerau (1): Electric Mango
sojourner (1): Falzis (now plus Narsis)

Not Voting (3): Nerau, partyin01, Kaziocore

---

With these votes, there is a high chance that I will still be the one to be lynched by deadline even if sojourner gets 4 votes to tie mine since I got to 4 faster (that's in mole's rules) unless:

1. SJ, Aquinas, and EM all switch to sojo
2. Nerau or Kaziocore votes (hopefully against sojo)
3. One of the 4 people voting for me switches vote
4. We switch back to KevinH

I say this because the weekend is fast approaching and activity during that time is near null so I implore to all town to vote already, even if against me (at least we'll know where your vote is).

I again reiterate my belief in case I die that at least 2 of the 4 people voting for me are scum, maybe even 3. I fairly believe that SJ and Aquinas are townies along with EM although Narsis is consistently trying to portray EM as maybe a smart scum hiding in town.

[Narsis]

i'm not trying to portray EM as scum. i just used him as an example...Neimpie(for those that remember), KevinH, betsy...a lot of the older guys easily fit the example as well.

[Electric Mango]

My vote on Nerau isn't doing much good anymore. I haven't made up my mind for sure on who is more guilty between KevinH and Sojourner. I know Falzis is in the mix too but I have a good feeling about him still. I'm moving my vote to Sojourner for now. I was suspicious of him Day 1 anyway and at least Kevin is being a lot more open and posting more. I still have until Monday to switch my mind and I hope we get more interesting theories to develop by then.

Unvote
Vote: Sojourner

[Narsis]

hmm...i've seen sojourner positng elsewhere and on irc since falzis' post. i was wondering what he thinks of it...

[Electric Mango]

hmm...i've seen sojourner positng elsewhere and on irc since falzis' post. i was wondering what he thinks of it...

That's been 7 hrs since Falzis' post. I would think that he would have seen this by then. I would think that if he did that he would have commented by now.

[Kaziocore]

He's probably thinking of something to prove his townieness. I'm going to add pressure to this guy.

Vote: Sojourner

[Martino]

He's probably thinking of something to prove his townieness. I'm going to add pressure to this guy.

Vote: Sojourner

FOS Kaziocore
If you think he is scum, you should say so. But I find putting some pressure on him a lousy reason for your vote. He had already been voted twice since his last post. That should have been more than enough pressure.

[Aquinas]

Falzis, I am extremely happy with your post. I challenged you to find some new information and bring it up rather than let us drown in a another he said she said debate. I am delighted to say, you exceeded my expectations. I was waiting for either you or KevinH to do something productive outside yourselves and you nailed it. Very good work. This deduction, although the logic is not as sound as you quite believe, is the most concrete evidence I have seen thus far in either day. I feel that the town now has a quality of evidence we can vote on without serious worry of regret. Even if Sojourner turns out to be townie, at least we lynch him with a string of evidence not just their lynch or no lynch opinions. This seriously sets a new bar for evidence and I am glad to move past the "good enough" sort of evidence.

I would like to add that the

After reading the Wiki on no lynch I am going to use that knowledge and my gut to vote...
vote-Falzis

sort of posting from D1 is exactly what got him into hot water. His inability to make a clear rational argument and clearly unthought out rationale should get him lynched. I troubles me we have people still basing their vote on the lynch no lynch debate. Especially, when there vote hinges on the verbage of wiki rather than evidence from peoples actions and responses to it.

Seeing as Sojourner has made no development in his ability to create a clear and effective argument against a potential scum;
Seeing that Sojourner is voting based on out of date material and has not seemed to pay attention to any day two information;
Following Falzis' deduction and explanation of the situation;

Vote Sojourner

[Aquinas]

Sorry, I posted out of format.

UNVOTE
Vote Sojourner

[Sir Jesus]

Wow Falzis, that is some pretty awesome detective work. While your argument is not bullet-proof, it is far more substantial than anything we've seen here so far. Keep in mind that if scum sometimes do not want heat brought on them by dropping the hammer vote, but I still don't see why they wouldn't push for an extra dead target so early in the game. Thus, there is a bit of WIFOM in play here but I do believe that Soj is scum.

Vote: Sojourner

Also, the fact that he has not come in here and defended himself also adds to my conviction to vote.


Also, mole you can remove me from V/LA my health has improved a lot.

[Sir Jesus]

uhhh yeah ....

Unvote
Vote: Sojourner

[Martino]

I think that puts him at lynch -1. Please, let's at least give him the opportunity to respond before we lynch him. While I would really like him to defend himself, I will say that I am not as impressed with the case against him as the rest of you seem to be.

First of all, the theory doesn't hold if KevinH is scum. He would never vote, no matter whether you guys were about to lynch a townie or his scum buddy. Secondly, and more importantly, the case against Sojourner on D1 was weak at best. I am always greatly in favor of a lynch on D1, but I found the case to be so weak, that it would have just been a random lynch. That wouldn't help us, so I didn't vote. Assuming that he is town, do you really think that the scum would have come out and hammered him based on virtually nothing? I think that would have been a great way for them to get into trouble. Further, you assume that the mafia would be in favor of a lynch. While they would of course like to lynch a townie, I certainly don't think a no lynch is in the disadvantage of the scum. So again, it seems plausible to me that the scum just decided to lay low together with most townies.

It really puzzles me that so many immediately voted for sojourner. I have become mighty suspicious of the last few people to jump aboard the bandwagon. It seems like you guys are not even willing to give him a chance to defend himself.

[Narsis]

I think that puts him at lynch -1. Please, let's at least give him the opportunity to respond before we lynch him. While I would really like him to defend himself, I will say that I am not as impressed with the case against him as the rest of you seem to be.

First of all, the theory doesn't hold if KevinH is scum. He would never vote, no matter whether you guys were about to lynch a townie or his scum buddy. Secondly, and more importantly, the case against Sojourner on D1 was weak at best. I am always greatly in favor of a lynch on D1, but I found the case to be so weak, that it would have just been a random lynch. That wouldn't help us, so I didn't vote. Assuming that he is town, do you really think that the scum would have come out and hammered him based on virtually nothing? I think that would have been a great way for them to get into trouble. Further, you assume that the mafia would be in favor of a lynch. While they would of course like to lynch a townie, I certainly don't think a no lynch is in the disadvantage of the scum. So again, it seems plausible to me that the scum just decided to lay low together with most townies.

It really puzzles me that so many immediately voted for sojourner. I have become mighty suspicious of the last few people to jump aboard the bandwagon. It seems like you guys are not even willing to give him a chance to defend himself.

the same thing i've been thinking, but this is a far better case then the ones against Falzis and KevinH. it also has...other benefits, the majority of them requiring hindsight(which we have yet to get in this case).