894 replies to this topic

[Sir Jesus]

Just read through the thread again, and noticed something particularly interesting.

Watch the Vote Pattern of the second day:

-KevinH FoS's Falzis
-Martino + Theophilos vote Falzis
-KevinH votes Falzis

-EM votes KevinH
-KevinH SFOS's EM
-Narsis votes KevinH
-Falzis votes KevinH
-SJ votes KevinH
-Narsis unvotes KevinH ->Nerau
-Aquinas votes KevinH

-EM unvotes KevinH with the following reasoning (extremely weak):

With Kevin or Falzis already locked in as one of our candidates for a lynch I thought it would be best to apply pressure to at least one more candidate.

Nerau is usually a lot more active but has remained relatively quiet so far. This is different from his normal playing style.

This seems to me like a very well thought out plan by KevinH and EM. KevinH cast suspicion towards a vocal player, Falzis, but doesn't risk first vote. Once public begins to agree, he places his vote. There is now a strong case aganist a townie.

EM begins his distancing move by placing an accusation against KevinH, and KevinH SFOS's back but does not return the vote. The public has noticed a playing style difference in KevinH and the day starts looking very bad for KevinH with a near lynch. EM then decides to change his vote to another candidate with one vote against them, and KevinH avoids being lynched on Day 2...

I also think it's ironic that KevinH's accusation against me is "you voted to kill a townie in Day 2," when you specifically designed and carried out a hammer vote on Falzis.

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Narsis II
Sir Jesus (1): KevinH

Not Voting (4): Theophilos, Sir Jesus, Martino, Kaziocore

With 6 Alive, 4 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 11 August 2009 - 09:26 AM.

[KevinH]

I also think it's ironic that KevinH's accusation against me is "you voted to kill a townie in Day 2," when you specifically designed and carried out a hammer vote on Falzis.

Townies vote to lynch what they think is the best choice and sometimes they get it wrong.
First case:

sojourner (6): Falzis, Narsis, Electric Mango, Kaziocore, Aquinas, Sir Jesus

Second case:

Falzis (5): Kaziocore, Sir Jesus, Theophilos, Aquinas, KevinH

And sometimes they get it right:

Electric Mango (6): Martino, Aquinas, Kaziocore, KevinH, CanucksDynasty, Theophilos

I didn't "design and carry out a hammer vote."

Remember saying this?

This is where all the evidence comes together, and I believe KevinH has presented that evidence much better than I could.

We all thought Falzis was scum and there were no alternatives presented.

[Theophilos]

Now I obviously know I'm not scum and I'm pretty sure Martino isn't scum. That said I've never really thought that Kazio was scum either ... the only way I see her as scum is if she's receiving instructions on how to behave from the scum boss ...

That leaves KevinH, Narsis II and Sir Jesus. I already FOS-ed the latter, so I'll start there. Two things there: he clinched the sojourner vote and didn't vote for EM when we lynched him. That's contra, on the pro side he does make an interesting assumption against KevinH. That said he still remains my suspect for scum.

Narsis II didn't vote for EM, but didn't vote for sojourner either ... so a tad suspicious perhaps but I'm not really sure about him ... still more re-reading or something ...

KevinH ... I'll not repeat the arguments for him being scum, save for the fact that they've become more compelling since we saw that Falzis wasn't scum.

At this point I'd say Kevin and SJ are scum.


Also this vote:
KevinH: Falzis, SJ, Narsis II, EM [confirmed 1t & 1s ... 2t or 2s or 1t & 1s remaining]
EM: Martino, Aquinas, Kazio, KevinH, CD and me [confirmed 2t ... 2 more t - me and Martino + 2s or 2t or 1t & 1s]
I think it more likely that the scum vote would spread to cover their bets and leave at least one scum hidden ... So we know that EM was scum that leaves Kazio and KevinH in the pro EM lynch camp that could be scum. As I don't believe Kazio is scum that leaves KevinH. In the pro Kevin lynch camp we are left with SJ and Narsis II, which would mean (to me) that SJ is the other remaining scum. Their is the third option that Kazion and Kevin are both scum. Mind you I'll need to think about this last part a bit more

[KevinH]

Where's all the discussion that everyone wants?

Here are my thoughts on people ordered from most likely to be town to most likely to be scum.

• KevinH - wrongly lynched Falzis but it seemed like it was the best move at the time
• Martino - no wrong votes at all
• Kaziocore - wrongly lynched Sojourner and Falzis but swung the vote to EM at a critical time
• Theophilos - wrongly lynched Falzis
• Narsis II - no wrong lynches on townies as Narsis II (although he was absent when we lynched Falzis), but didn't vote for EM
• Sir Jesus - wrongly lynched Sojourner and Falzis, and didn't vote for EM

[Narsis]

actually i disagree with the idea behind that list. it's not always who they voted for but why they voted and the circumstances surrounding their vote.

for instance: both your vote and Theo's against EM. sure you voted and killed scum. but your vote was an OMGUS to EM's vote of you and Theo's hammer wasn't really needed to kill EM. with that in mind can you still say that their votes on EM were driven by a desire to kill scum? i think not.

sure people wrongly lynched sojourner, but the only other person that they could have voted for that would have resulted in a lynch was Falzis, a townie as well.

[Kaziocore]

Also sometimes lynching other townies is an indicator that they are really townies because it means that they make mistakes and they are ignorant of something.

[KevinH]

for instance: both your vote and Theo's against EM. sure you voted and killed scum. but your vote was an OMGUS to EM's vote of you and Theo's hammer wasn't really needed to kill EM. with that in mind can you still say that their votes on EM were driven by a desire to kill scum?

I agree that there are lots of circumstances where the motivation for the vote isn't exactly clear. However, it's still a potential indicator of scum versus townie because in general, scum want to lynch townies and not lynch other scum.

In my case, I needed to OMGUS because EM voted for me. If we were both scum, he wouldn't want to put me in that position.

In Theo's case, there could have been some unvotes but his vote prevented that. Yes, the motivation could have been "EM's going down, I better join in" but it could also have been "I want to lynch EM and I'm not going to allow any last minute unvotes."

[KevinH]

Also sometimes lynching other townies is an indicator that they are really townies because it means that they make mistakes and they are ignorant of something.

That's a totally valid point. Falzis and Aquinas are perfect examples of that.

I think we need to interpret the data to the best of our ability and take actions based on that. Falzis set himself up to have lots of "evidence" built up against him when he was truly just a townie. At the time, it seemed to be the right thing in lynching him. In hindsight, I wish we still had him alive.

[Martino]

I agree that there are lots of circumstances where the motivation for the vote isn't exactly clear. However, it's still a potential indicator of scum versus townie because in general, scum want to lynch townies and not lynch other scum.

In my case, I needed to OMGUS because EM voted for me. If we were both scum, he wouldn't want to put me in that position.

Perhaps. If you had both voted Falzis, you may have gotten him lynched. On the other hand, if EM had voted Falzis, Falzis would have voted EM and we may have ended up still lynching EM. In that situation, it would have been obvious that you and EM were avoiding voting eachother and you would be the next to go down. So, I could see EM voting you to try and create some distance, even knowing that it was bound to get him lynched.

In Theo's case, there could have been some unvotes but his vote prevented that. Yes, the motivation could have been "EM's going down, I better join in" but it could also have been "I want to lynch EM and I'm not going to allow any last minute unvotes."

It would have been pretty risky to unvote there. The scum knew that EM was scum and from a townie pov the case against EM was pretty strong. Also, even if someone did unvote, Theo could have voted in his stead and we would still have lynched EM and then we would have found another suspect. Now, I'm not saying that Theo made a mistake, but that vote alone doesn't make him a definite townie. However, he has given me no reason to believe he is scum.

[Narsis]

I agree that there are lots of circumstances where the motivation for the vote isn't exactly clear. However, it's still a potential indicator of scum versus townie because in general, scum want to lynch townies and not lynch other scum.

In my case, I needed to OMGUS because EM voted for me. If we were both scum, he wouldn't want to put me in that position.

In Theo's case, there could have been some unvotes but his vote prevented that. Yes, the motivation could have been "EM's going down, I better join in" but it could also have been "I want to lynch EM and I'm not going to allow any last minute unvotes."

WIFOM.

also, what Martino said.

[KevinH]

It's always WIFOM. Perhaps Martino is playing a perfect game as scum so that we all think he's townie. You never know.

[KevinH]

This seems to me like a very well thought out plan by KevinH and EM. KevinH cast suspicion towards a vocal player, Falzis, but doesn't risk first vote. Once public begins to agree, he places his vote. There is now a strong case aganist a townie.

I went from FOS to SFOS to Vote in less than 24 hours.

OK

FOS: Electric Mango and Falsis

If Sojourner had been lynched and found to be innocent, the suspicion would have been on them.

SFOS: Electric Mango and Falzis

One more vote at the deadline and he'd have been dead. That's not close?

Vote: Falzis

for attempting to mislead.

If I'd have voted any faster, I'd have been accused of being hasty.
I gave reasons for my vote when I made it; that's not waiting for the public to agree.

[Theophilos]

Might as well name two my self: Falzis and EM (I promissed a FoS - well here it is ...).

I'm not gonna repeat everything about Falzis ... the fact that sojourner died just additionally confirmes my suspicions, I had a hunch about EM 'cause of all the support he was giving Falzis, that hunch is now a FoS.

First time I expressed my opinion that EM was scum ... and persisted with that to his lynch.

In Theo's case, there could have been some unvotes but his vote prevented that. Yes, the motivation could have been "EM's going down, I better join in" but it could also have been "I want to lynch EM and I'm not going to allow any last minute unvotes."

My vote for EM was based on the fact that I was convinced he was scum, and I saw no harm in moving my vote from Falzis to EM to end that round. Remember at that point I was still SURE that Falzis was scum and EM his "mate" ... so lynching either was fine with me.

[KevinH]

Twenty-four hours pass without a post. Methinks the scum are laying low.

[Narsis]

maybe maybe not, but that does seem to be their plan.

@the other townies: we need to lynch someone today. we are in LYLO if there are 2 scum left(which there likely are). we have to lynch scum. so my suggestion would be to vote for the person you believe most likely to be scum at this point in time.

[Martino]

Well, it seems like it will be either KevinH or Sir Jesus. I am going to vote now, because I think everyone should get their votes in. We don't want the mafia to be able to come in a few hours before deadline and decide the lynch.

Both KevinH and Sir Jesus have done something that could be suspicious. EM had been aggresively targetting Sir Jesus throughout day 3. So that makes me think that Sir Jesus is less likely to be scum. KevinH on the other hand hasn't been able to convince me that he is a townie. So I will:

vote: KevinH

[Kaziocore]

I'll have to vote for KevinH.

Vote: KevinH

Like what Martino has said, you are more likely a scum than Sir Jesus. Sir Jesus could just be a townie that did not vote right.

[KevinH]

Personally, I think that KevinH is scum.

KevinH on the other hand hasn't been able to convince me that he is a townie.

I'll have to vote for KevinH.

Well, what can I do to prove my towniness other than die? The three votes against me could easily be misguided townies, and Sir Jesus hasn't voted yet ...

This post is where I quoted Aquinas and Falzis. They both suspected Sir Jesus. Falzis also added Narsis.

I thought the voting patterns made Sir Jesus the best choice but there are already three votes that disagree with me.

Unvote: Sir Jesus

Assuming there are 2 scum, Narsis is my next choice.

Vote: Narsis II

Theophilos and Sir Jesus: if you are townies, I urge you to vote for Narsis with me. Maybe one of the townie votes on me will shift to make is a lynch.

If there are 2 scum and I die, then the town loses. If there's only 1 scum and I die, then please consider what I have posted.

Lots of activity, so here's another quick count.
VOTE COUNT
KevinH (3): Narsis II, Martino, Kaziocore
Narsis II (1): KevinH

Not Voting (2): Theophilos, Sir Jesus

With 6 Alive, 4 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 15 August 2009 - 05:45 PM.

[Theophilos]

I guess my vote can't hurt ... so vote: Narsis ... might as well give Kevin a chance to stay alive if he indeed is a townie ...

That said I'm still not sure who are the 2 remaining scum ... as I said my vote in it self changes nothing so ...

[Sir Jesus]

vote: KevinH

Let's hope to god that our reasoning is correct.