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#821
Narsis

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i disagree with Falzis statement as quoted.

First, because when Theo voted EM would have died anyway so it wouldn't have mattered who he voted for.

Second, because KevinH's vote was an OMGUS of sorts. He basically voted EM to save his own skin.

Personally, I think that KevinH is scum. His usual no lynch self let's him get away with Day 1, on Day 2 he voted for Falzis(who turned up townie and mafia would have known he was a townie), on Day 3 he voted against EM(who was scum, but the vote was a save-your-own-skin vote so it makes it kinda of null), and on Day 4 he not only voted against Falzis, but also drove for his lynch, and drove hard(this goes against his earlier playing style which seemed to be keeping it close to the chest. with EM gone, the person formerly driving a lot of the town, it would make sense for another mafia to take up the role of trying to drive the town into the ground).

so with that i'm going to:

Vote: KevinH

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (1): Narsis II

Not Voting (5): Theophilos, Sir Jesus, Martino, Kaziocore, KevinH

Edited by molestargazer, 06 August 2009 - 04:37 PM.

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#822
Martino

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Before I will give my opinion on KevinH/Sir Jesus/Narsis, I would like to ask Kaziocore what do you think about them? Who do you think is town/scum and, more importanty, why?

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#823
Kaziocore

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Martino, on Aug 6 2009, 02:04 AM, said:

Before I will give my opinion on KevinH/Sir Jesus/Narsis, I would like to ask Kaziocore what do you think about them? Who do you think is town/scum and, more importanty, why?


Right now, I believe that Narsis is the more likely a townie between the three (again back then Nerau looked like he was uninterested in playing (possibly townie)). This may change if KevinH is townie. But I was a little disappointed about the timing of Narsis' V/LA (we won't know who he will really vote and the timing of his vote and how he voted) but I'm sure it's not his fault.

Now the two guys left are KevinH and Sir Jesus.

I am really not sure but I think lost my confidence that KevinH is townie.

I'm thinking that assuming KevinH is scum...
Scum will distance themselves...
EM will try to look like partners with Falzis
And Kevin will be on the other side.
(I remember when this happened on D2 when EM voted KevinH and then when KevinH got 4 votes, EM changed his vote to Nerau then he got lucky that someone got more suspicious who is Falzis so he did not vote KevinH again in D2)

On D3 the race was like this one
KevinH
EM
Falzis

Then it became like this one
KevinH
EM

Here KevinH and EM were forced to vote for each other...

Now if KevinH was lynched, then there will be less suspicions for Falzis and EM seeing as they really wanted to vote for Kevin...
Now if EM was lynched which happened, there will be less suspicions for Kevin even if he voted for Falzis the next day because majority really were convinced that Falzis was scum.

So if I were to vote I'll vote for Kevin but I'll wait till a lot more people talk like Sir Jesus and Theo and other people (I might get convinced or something)

But if KevinH turns out to be townie
Then Sir Jesus is scum.

Now about Sir Jesus...
I'm not really that convinced that he's scum. EM voted him before twice I think (I'm not sure but I think he said something about him being inactive). If KevinH turns out to be scum, Sir Jesus is most likely a townie because he voted KevinH twice or thrice...
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#824
Martino

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I can agree with most of your post but I have two issues:

1) I wouldn't give Narsis a free pass because the previous player seemed uninterested. Nerau could, in fact, really have been too busy.

2) Yes, KevinH voted for EM to save his own skin. However, he did so after EM voted KevinH to save his skin. If EM had voted for Falzis instead, then I think we would have lynched Falzis there. On the other hand, both EM and KevinH are very experienced players. They may have feared that we would lynch one of them next and that they would seem connected. So, overal, I agree that we should not give KevinH a free pass because of that vote, but it does speak slightly in his favor compared to Sir Jesus and Narsis.

As I said in my first post of today, I had done a reread of D3. Unfortunately, most of that information was centered around Falzis, but I also made some remarks regarding the other players. I wasn't really suspicious of KevinH and I hadn't noticed any really strange posts, so I did not have any relevant notes of him. The same goes for Theophilos, but for him I am still quite certain that he is town. About KevinH, however, I have my doubts. I am especially wary of the quicklynch of Falzis yesterday. That was simply unnecessary and certainly not in our advantage.

Narsis: Didn�t vote on D2. I suppose this was mainly due to the inactivity of Nerau. So I�ll disregard it. His first post after replacing defends EM. At that point EM was receiving some heat, but I was the only one voting for EM. Says he is suspicious of KevinH and Sir Jesus in the same post.

This, combined with Narsis' vote today for KevinH makes me believe that they are not scum together. His suspicions of Sir jesus also make that connection less likely. His defense of EM makes him more likely to be scum but EM also made this post:

Quote

I have my own wild theory about Nerau that I'll share since you brought him up. The nk scene mentioned there were two killers. What if there were 3 mafia (as most vets would say is about the right amount) but since Nerau was inactive Mole didn't include him in the write up. Nerau could be the mafia godfather and when he didn't send in his night action it went to the 2nd goon in charge and Mole wrote the scene using only the two active goons?

This seems to work in favour of Narsis. Why would EM put forth this theory if this was indeed the truth? There were others in favor of lynching Nerau at that point. Why would EM try to persuade more people to vote for Nerau, if he was his scum buddy? Of course he wouldn't be of much use inactive, but sooner or later he was bound to get replaced.

Sir Jesus: I had written this in my analysis: Was the last one to vote for Sojourner on D2 and that vote sealed the lynch. If Falzis is scum, I am convinced that Sir Jesus is scum as well. It would have been a clear way to save his scum buddy. On the other hand, if Falzis is not scum, then I believe it would make it less likely that Sir Jesus is scum. I just can�t imagine the scum putting themselves out there like that if the vote was between two townies.

Turns out Falzis was a townie, so I believe that makes it less likely that Sir Jesus is scum.

Mentioned early in the day that if there is a strong doc, that he should lay low. This was before EM �suggested� the roleclaim. Since I�ve lynched EM partly for suggesting that roleclaim, I�ll credit Sir Jesus for suggesting that the doc lays low. However, after EM �proposed� the roleclaim, he says that his gut tells him to keep the pro town roles safe and hidden, but he doesn�t immediately reject EM�s plan. Of course he did post his objections, but I would have expected someone who wanted the strong doc to lay low to respond a bit more fiercely to this proposal of EM. So that earn him some suspicion from me.

When, at the start of D3, EM was asked who he found the most suspicious he answered Falzis and Sir Jesus. A little later EM votes for Sir Jesus. At this point, KevinH and Theophilos were voting for Falzis and CD and I were voting for Kaziocore. There was no significant pressure on either EM or Sir Jesus at this point. This earns Sir Jesus some townie points from me. On the other hand, it does raise some suspicion against Kaziocore. EM had been too closely connected to Falzis on D1 and 2 to suddenly change all the way and vote him. So if Kaziocore was scum together with EM, EM would have needed to find a new target for the lynch and that turned out to be Sir Jesus. IF Kaziocore is scum, then Sir Jesus is not.

Kaziocore: Another interesting post by EM:

Quote

Also if I were Kaziocore and I were scum, I would have my vote on Falzis right now. As it's shaping up it's going to be between Kaziocore and Falzis, with Kaziocore having more votes as it stands now. Kaziocore is 1 out of only 3 active players yet to vote. If he were scum I highly believe that he would have voted for Falzis to save his own skin. Instead Kaziocore has basically offered himself up as our next lynch candidate.

At that point it was 3 votes for Kaziocore, 2 for Falzis, 1 for Sir Jesus. EM managed to get Kaziocore of the chopping block with this post. I stated at that time that I did not believe this to be a valid reason to unvote and I still believe so. Anyway, looking back, EM was clearly defending Kaziocore. With EM turning out to be scum, that makes Kaziocore look bad. Finally, after EM's roleclaim proposal:

Quote

I'm guessing that the strong doctor can find out information. I imagine the strong doctor is like the head of this hospital and has like the records of all the patients in this place.

If the strong doc would indeed be an investigative/informative role instead of a regular doc, then EM�s suggestion wouldn�t be so outrageous. So this could be viewed as Kaziocore defending EM. However, I may be overestimating Kaziocore here. He is new, afterall, and I am not sure if he could have drawn the conclusion at that point that if the strong doc was an invenstigative role that it wouldn't be so bad to suggest a roleclaim.

Anyway, I have one huge issue with Kaziocore possibly being scum and that is his vote for EM. Kaziocore was the third to vote for EM and he was the one that really got the bandwagon going against EM. There is a good chance we wouldn't have lynched EM without Kaziocore. So why would he have done so if he is scum? Also, I've had my suspicions about him since the beginning and, unfortunately, that may lead to me seeing things there are not, just to confirm my believe. So I would like to know from the other players what they think about all this. I would especially like to hear from Theophilos.

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#825
Theophilos

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Where to start?


I've been convinced since day 2 that Falzis was scum ... him not being scum put all my theories and connections in a strange light. Up to this point I was sure that the scum trio was: Falzis, EM and SJ (the latter probably).

Now I'm not sure about anything any more ... EM was scum, Falzis wasn't ... so who are the two remaining scum?

There are six of us left ... I don't see Martino as scum.

Narsis II and Kaziocore could be scum I guess ... but less likely.

I'm still leaning on my previous opinion that SJ is scum ... and that leaves Kevin, which I never really considered as possible scum, but ... If I was so wrong on Falzis, anything's possible. I have to say Martino's post gave me a lot to thin about, so I'll re-read posts on day 4 and today's posts and write something more on why SJ and Kevin could be or are scum.

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#826
Kaziocore

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Martino, on Aug 7 2009, 05:03 AM, said:

If the strong doc would indeed be an investigative/informative role instead of a regular doc, then EM�s suggestion wouldn�t be so outrageous. So this could be viewed as Kaziocore defending EM. However, I may be overestimating Kaziocore here. He is new, afterall, and I am not sure if he could have drawn the conclusion at that point that if the strong doc was an invenstigative role that it wouldn't be so bad to suggest a roleclaim.


What I really mean is that when the strong doc protects someone, he would also know the faction of the guy.
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#827
Kaziocore

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About the quick lynch yesterday...

I just read yesterday in the mafia wiki that it's always bad for the townies to lynch quickly or something...
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#828
Martino

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Kaziocore, on Aug 7 2009, 11:19 AM, said:

About the quick lynch yesterday...

I just read yesterday in the mafia wiki that it's always bad for the townies to lynch quickly or something...

Yes, we lose a lot of information if we quickly lynch. We could have used the remainder of the day to discuss and gain more information. Anyway, you're not to blame as you were the first to vote.

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#829
KevinH

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I believe the scum would have tried to save Electric Mango so I give townie points to those that lynched him:

Martino, Kaziocore, KevinH, Theophilos


I believe the best lynch comes from the remaining two:

Sir Jesus, Narsis II


Considering Sir Jesus voted in the Sojourner lynch, he gets my vote now.

Vote: Sir Jesus

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#830
KevinH

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Two posts and two days ago:

Martino, on Aug 7 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

We could have used the remainder of the day to discuss and gain more information.

Nothing further discussed in this thread in this day.

But in the sign-up for the next game we have activity from Martino, Narsis, and Theophilos.

Why can't we have the desired discussion in this thread?

A prod will be sent to Sir Jesus - the only person inactive enough to warrant one.

Edited by molestargazer, 09 August 2009 - 09:58 PM.


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#831
Narsis

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because i am mainly waiting for you guys...

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#832
Sir Jesus

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I've been extremely busy, I will post in detail tomorrow (my day off).
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#833
KevinH

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We're wanting and waiting for discussion.

None of the remaining players seem scummy to me.

There are a few clues from voting patterns but not much else. If there's no discussion, there won't be anything else. (That's what the scum would want.)

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#834
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agreed Kevin. need i remind everyone that we are at LYLO? assuming there are 2 mafia of course.

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#835
Martino

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KevinH, on Aug 10 2009, 01:32 PM, said:

We're wanting and waiting for discussion.

None of the remaining players seem scummy to me.

There are a few clues from voting patterns but not much else. If there's no discussion, there won't be anything else. (That's what the scum would want.)

Well, that is my biggest problem at the moment. I have a few reasons to suspect that some players are not scum, but hardly any to suspect that someone is scum. The main 'scummy' things on my list:
- Sir Jesus and Narsis didn't vote for EM
- KevinH ended the previous day prematurely

If you got any others, please let me know.

In my previous post I have listed a few reasons why I think that Sir Jesus and Narsis are less likely to be scum. I didn't notice any for KevinH. So, KevinH, why are you not scum?

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#836
KevinH

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Martino, on Aug 10 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

- KevinH ended the previous day prematurely

...

So, KevinH, why are you not scum?


As I previously posted, I ended the day prematurely with notice that I would do so. Falzis had all the votes at that point and no discussion was happening. I thought Falzis was the best option for a lynch and nobody proposed an alternative. It was best to move on with the game.

The best evidence to prove that I am not scum is that I voted to lynch Electric Mango. If EM and I were both scum, we would have tried to effect the lynch of Falzis and not vote for each other.

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#837
Narsis

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not true necessarily. if Falzis turned up town(which he did later) then you both would have been under suspicion, especially if you weren't careful enough and seemed too overeager. so there is reason to have voted each other.

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#838
KevinH

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Narsis, on Aug 10 2009, 05:55 PM, said:

not true necessarily. if Falzis turned up town(which he did later) then you both would have been under suspicion, especially if you weren't careful enough and seemed too overeager. so there is reason to have voted each other.

From a scum perspective, isn't it better to have 2 scum alive and under suspicion than 1 scum dead?

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#839
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hmm...that reminds me of something i should look at...

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#840
Narsis

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ok looking back over D3, some interesting things:

first, Falzis at his height had 3 votes against: Kevin, Theo and CD. one of which has been proven townie. now assuming the other two are townie as well and that Kevin is right about 2 mafia under suspiscion better then 1 dead, then wouldn't the mafia have voted to kill Falzis? but they didnt. which means one of two things:

1. Kevin's assumption that 2 under suspicion is better then 1 dead is false.
or
2. Kevin(or Theo or both) were mafia already voting for Falzis. in which case even with EM's vote, it would have required either one or two townies to vote Falzis as well.

secondly, Kevin was also tied with Falzis with 3 votes: SJ, Falzis, and me. Assuming Kevin is a townie, and knowing that me and Falzis were townies(since i know my own alignment) and assuming that SJ is a townie as well as once again assuming Kevin is right about the suspicion death thing, then wouldn't the mafia have voted to kill Kevin? especially with Falzis's vote against him they probably could have easily driven a lynch against Falzis the following day, resulting in a loss for the town. but they didnt, which again means one of three things:

1. Kevin's assumption is false.
or
2. SJ, or me, or both are mafia as it would have required one or two townies to vote to get a lynch.
or
3. Kevin is mafia.


interestingly enough, this means that one of the following conclusions is correct:

1. Kevin's assumption is false.
2. Kevin is mafia.
3. SJ is mafia.

also interesting is that none of Kevin's nor SJ's(nor Theo's) contradict the play of scum. in the only scum lynch, SJ held his vote on Kevin, Kevin's vote against EM was very OMGUS, and Theo's "hammer" wouldn't have made a difference. on D2, both candidates were townies so the votes are null and D4 was so one-sided it doesn't matter much either.

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