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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!

Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix Mafia

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#381
Wolfpacks

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Tbh i doubt Isoc would have RC if the odds wasnt against him, i leaning more on LS being scum and if i do vote LS and he comes up town you can be sure my first action on D4 will be to vote for you Isoc

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#382
Yehom

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I'm going to officially vote for iSoc since the votes are getting very close

 

Vote: iSoc


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#383
Lyner

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That's why i didn't state the rest of my abilities. I didn't want to use it as leverage. I was actually going to play it off as a n4 ability so scum wouldn't kill me right away.

Again NO WHERE have I said SBG is scum. So I only got "lucky" the first night. Also LS is saying he believe me, so if you think LS is telling the truth that would imply I"M TOWN. As in the suicide run theory. That's absurd, this game started as a 4:12 game. With the lynch of SLMK it's 3:11. I don't know how I would be able to take out two players after LS flipped town. I doubted it if you all be like "oh LS is town, well let's give iSoc a second chance" Please. Meaning I would only be able to take out one player, maybe force both to RC'ed, but I wouldn't role claim if someone else is going to get lynched, so really only one RC, unless you all deflect towards the next player. After all this though, even with two taken out with me it would make the game 2;9. It's better odd/ratio for scum, but still a crappy situation. Reality would be only be one taken out with me, so really 2;10. SOOO i guess you can say it's a suicide run, but more like a 5k awareness run about unfair lynching at Hogwarts, meaning (i'm trying to take out scum).

In the whole name thing.. really Yehom is this your first game of TW?


Including scum night kills, the ratio would be 2:8. Even if we assume that there are 5 scums (3:8), town would still have 2 nights to get another scum.

The worst case would be, as LS claimed, a framer is in play. The potential ratio would be 4:8 with only one night to spare.


I'm ready to hammer LS, by the way. Any objections?

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#384
Finster Baby

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How do we benefit by ending the day early?
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#385
Rhizoctonia

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Interesting that LS votes me rather then Isocialism. Gains nothing if he's really scum to call out me. If he is scum, even if he dies tomorrow if isocialism is killed today and found the be town he at least killed off one more town. Not sure why he'd do that if he truely is scum.

Also interesting kik Kat avoids both wagons and votes SBG who won't be killed today, and Yehom who came out earlier defending Isocialism now is voting him

This has been A constant back and forth for me

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#386
Lyner

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How do we benefit by ending the day early?


Mostly to avoid careless hammer vote which ended up killing iSoc before the day ends


Anyway, make sure you pick your target carefully tonight, iSoc. Should be an easy decision imo

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#387
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Unvote

Vote isocialism

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#388
Finster Baby

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Unvote

Vote isocialism

Why?
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#389
Rhizoctonia

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Unvote

Vote isocialism

Why?

 

 

 

I've been back and forth between them both.  What i don't understand is why if LS is scum, why he would take his vote off Isocialism and put it on me.  The vote is very close, why if he was scum would he not at least try to knock out a town before he's dead.  If Isocialism is town, he's dead tomorrow, but even still, the town would be down 1 less player.  He gains nothing if he's scum to put a vote on me instead of looking to take out Isocialism.  There are occasions where scum are screwed that it's obvious they're scum that they throw in the towel...but I don't get why a scum would with a vote this close.


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#390
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How do we benefit by ending the day early?

Mostly to avoid careless hammer vote which ended up killing iSoc before the day ends


Anyway, make sure you pick your target carefully tonight, iSoc. Should be an easy decision imo

And Finister, this.

The two seem attached at the hip, with Lyner backing Isocialism all day. Then you have the last part of his comment..."make sure you pick your target carefully tonight isocialism. Should be an easy decision imo."

This coming from someone who hasn't called out anyone, now claims it "should be an easy decision." I've yet to see many claim scum outside of the possible Isocialism/LS today, so it's intriguing that Lyner thinks picking a possible scum to Vig kill tonight is an easy or obvious decision. Picking a target to investigate, sure, there are a few including myself that's been in the limelight today...but make a guess to kill is whole other. Their dialogue on here seems so forced. Let alone, Isocialism could be a JOAT, but for scum, and plan to kill off another town tonight along with their normal kill and just say "welp I guesssed wrong."
Now I got to get back to my job for now, lunch is over

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#391
Lyner

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I'm pretty sure your answers didn't answer Finster's question, Rhizo

 

 

 

 

And what forced dialogue? If iSoc truly has a vig ability, used it tonight, and hit a scum, he is pretty much free of charge. Otherwise we still can't be 100% sure of his alignment



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#392
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Now that I think about it, what was that quick vote post? Are you afraid that I'd hammer the wagon?

 

 

Cause you know, that was the first time you didn't explain anything before changing vote.



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#393
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I'm not following Rhizo's thought process here...if someone who's fluent can explain......
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#394
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I'm pretty sure your answers didn't answer Finster's question, Rhizo

 

 

 

 

And what forced dialogue? If iSoc truly has a vig ability, used it tonight, and hit a scum, he is pretty much free of charge. Otherwise we still can't be 100% sure of his alignment

The problem here is if Isocialism is a scum JoAT (which is a possibility), his vig kill could take a town out. Or if he is telling the truth and hits the wrong target, again, we're down a town. As I mentioned in my post about this possibility, there are surely a wide variety of holes that can be exploited. But I agree, if he hits scum, he should be pretty clear for tomorrow at least. I'm not saying scum wouldnt sacrifice one to verify another, but it adds credibility to his case. 

I'm not following Rhizo's thought process here...if someone who's fluent can explain......

I'm not sure either, but i'm not sure on a lot of thought process going on today. Too much questionable stuff.


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#395
Rhizoctonia

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Now that I think about it, what was that quick vote post? Are you afraid that I'd hammer the wagon?


Cause you know, that was the first time you didn't explain anything before changing vote.


It's called I'm at work and have a life, I don't have time to type a long response on my phone. Thanks

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#396
Rhizoctonia

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I'm not following Rhizo's thought process here...if someone who's fluent can explain......


I will try again when I am not at work. A rushed few minutes typing at lunch obviously didn't explain it well

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#397
Sister Midnight

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Now that I think about it, what was that quick vote post? Are you afraid that I'd hammer the wagon?
Cause you know, that was the first time you didn't explain anything before changing vote.


It's called I'm at work and have a life, I don't have time to type a long response on my phone. Thanks

And I, for one, am grateful for short responses from the master of 2000 word posts. But your behavior seems irratic and you aren't explaining yourself. I can't hear your tone, but you seem a little grumpy, what's going on? Bad day? Switched to decaf?


Addendum:

I'm not following Rhizo's thought process here...if someone who's fluent can explain......


I will try again when I am not at work. A rushed few minutes typing at lunch obviously didn't explain it well

You posted while I was posting.

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#398
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Now that I think about it, what was that quick vote post? Are you afraid that I'd hammer the wagon?


Cause you know, that was the first time you didn't explain anything before changing vote.


It's called I'm at work and have a life, I don't have time to type a long response on my phone. Thanks

 

i understand that feeling, not just that i have a life i cant post because i drive all day.

 

Im still not 100% sure which way to go here so im not going to hit the hammer on either just yet, in one corner we have Isocialism, he wants the day over quickly, why, is it because he cant think of any more ways to defend himself or hes trying to pressure us into ending the day early, but saying that theres a few that also want this day over early, is it because they are scum who want to also pressure us in making a quick but possibly wrong lynch vote.

In the other corner is LS who according to Isoc was investigated on night 1 and was on the wagon of the d2 lynching of SLMK, who for some unknown reason has put his vote on Rhizo why?, because maybe he feels confident that the vote is now going away from him looks like he may be safe or he is trying to misdirect us, that if he turns out scum he maybe protecting another scum member by voting for him and making us think he is town and wont vote for him.

Im still thinking on one person but i need to think a little more before i vote.   


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#399
Rhizoctonia

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So to better explain myself as best as I can

 

If you're voting LS, you assume it's more likely LS is scum and Isocialism is town.

 

So, say that this is the case, why would LS pull his vote from from Isocialism if LS is scum and Isocialism is town.  It doesn't make sense, especially considering the fact that this vote, like last one, is very close and may come down to a vote or 2.  If LS is scum, he still has a chance to help lynch a town.  Sure he will be killed the next day once Isocialism is found to be town, but why not try to kill off a town before that, thus voting Isocialism to help his chances.  

 

The only reason, if LS is scum, to not vote Isocialism (a town in this scenario) and instead vote me would be if LS knew he was a goner today, and I was a scum partner, him voting me and putting suspicion on me right before he's lynched would in turn gain me some town points that a known scum tried to put suspicion on me.  He would die, but I would look less suspicious.  That however I know isn't the situation, because I'm not scum, thus this can't be his rational.  

 

So to me, he's likely telling the truth that he honestly believes he came up scum due to a framer.  It just doesn't make sense if LS is truely scum why he would pull his vote off Isocialism when he knows it's either him or Isocialism today.  

 

So vote who you want.  I have swapped back and forth today, as both have some reasons to make me think they're lying.  I'm not going to sit here and tell someone how to vote, but I'll give my rational (when I have time to actually type)  I am not sure who is who, but I have tried to analyze what I have, and at this point I'm likely staying where I'm at and will see what happens, hopefully chose right.  


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#400
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who for some unknown reason has put his vote on Rhizo why?,

 

I thought I made it as clear as I could why I voted Rhizo...

 

I know that I'm town, and I personally think that (despite the fact he's out for my throat), iSoc is town. Now I could be wrong and iSoc could be a scum, but I'm more inclined as it stands he's a townie.

 

When Rhizo first came forward and made this post:

 

The only option at this point that should be looking at is either voting Isocialism or LS. Who people want to go with, they can pick, but the only way we're going to know is by lynching either of them and examining the fallout the next day.

 

Lynch Isocialism:

 

Town - We know LS is scum. LS will claim framer. SBG is not necessarily proven scum or town, but leaves the possibility Isocialism picked right on his RB

 

Scum - We know LS is town, SBG likely as well

 

Lynch LS:

 

Town - We know Isocialism is scum. He will claim framer. SBG is likely town

 

Scum - Isocialism is likely town, SBG could be scum.

 

After that post, I started looking at Rhizo a little differently.

It dawned on me that he may very well be aware of the fact that iSoc and myself are both townies (since he would in this scenario be scum) and thus can use iSoc's results to eliminate two towns without casting much suspicion on himself. Since then, quite a few people have grabbed onto the same belief of "lynch the other if whoever we lynch today is town." That's why I voted Rhizo, because I have a sneaking suspicion he's a slippery scum who is manipulating the town into being convinced one of us between iSoc and myself must be scum.


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