910 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

From the perspective of a townie in {The Warrior, Lachiton, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism}, there would be a 33.3% chance on each of the others in that group that they'd be scum.  Why aren't they voting that way?
 
Maybe there are 2 scum in that group and they are afraid of being in on a second townie lynch in as many days.

The hammer vote is all I got.

 

Vote: iSocialism

[The Warrior]

So if we are going to come to the conclusion I was RBed, (and I didn't receive a message I was) do people believe it was a town block or scum block. (Jailkeeper?)

If the flavor text is actually implying that you were "Roleblocked" from performing an action, according to the mafia wiki you would likely have only been informed you were blocked if you had tried to use an active role like cop for example:

 

Players are not told that they are blocked unless it cannot be helped. For instance, a Cop who is blocked by a Roleblocker has to be told something for their investigation result. Normally the Cop is given a message like "No Result". 

 

If you did not receive a message informing you of something like that it likely implies that you either:

1) Don't have a role.

2) Didn't use a role last night.

3) Don't have a role that would be informed if blocked successfully.

 

On the other hand, if you were targeted by a jailkeeper:

 

Any role that receives results (such as Tracker or Watcher) but is blocked as a result of being targeted by a Jailkeeper should receive a "no result" message, rather than told their target didn't go anywhere or nobody visited their target.

If you had tried to use a role like tracker (since we know you aren't a watcher), you should have been returned a "no result" message from the mod.

 

If you were roleblocked I think it is safe to assume that it was a scum roleblocker. Reason being that a roleblocker in the hands of scum will guarantee that at least one townie could not use a power role at night (whether they had one or not to use). And I could be wrong but I would also think a town roleblocker would be less likely to use the power on night one in case they were to accidentally block their potential cop or potential doctor from acting. I would think they'd try to get a better read on all the players first before acting.

 

The jailkeeper on the other hand could be from either faction. A townie could have jailed you because they chose to protect you from a night kill. A scum could have jailed you to roleblock you (and protect you) to keep you from using a potential night action and because they weren't planning on targeting you at night anyway so "protecting" you wouldn't hurt them.

 

At this point I am most interested in Canik because of the reasons laid out previously and Rafay because of his overall activity. This post doesn't really sit well with me either:

 

Lachiton, on 14 Jan 2018 - 20:48, said: Also it seems Rafay is doing some token posting and ignored my vote on him. I am not removing my vote on him. He did same token posting last mafia game and he turned out scum.

Rookie mistake referencing last game. New game, new rules and roles.

 

It might be a new game with new rules and new roles but that doesn't change a playstyle that seems suspicious.

[The Warrior]

@MK: Can we please get an updated vote count?

[iSocialism]

    
    
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
        
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
            
        
    

Title D1 Lynch? Game End Mafia hammered? # of Mafia on D1 wagon D2 Success Lynch? Mafia on d2 Day one vote KH-18 1 MW 0 1 0 1 King Cankles (5): brewersalliance, Lachiton, Lord MK, Kitkat16, iSocialism, MK-2 1 MW 0 1 1 - FS108 (5): Lyner, The Warrior, vgmmaster, LordSunday, King Cankles TW-06 0 MW n/a n/a 1 - No-lynch KH-17 0 MW n/a n/a 0 1 No-lynch TW-05 0 MW n/a n/a 0 2 No-lynch KH-16 0 TW n/a n/a 1 - No-lynch TW-04 0 MW n/a n/a 0 3 No-lynch KH-15 1 MW 0 0 0 2 1ceCream (4): The Warrior, D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby, Kaziocore, MK-1 0 TW n/a n/a 0 1 No-lynch TW-03 0 SKW n/a n/a 0 2 No-lynch N=10 3   0   3                     0=NO, 1=YES              

From the past 10 games. While yes, no games were won after a d1 lynch. no day 1 lynch was ended with a mafia hammer vote. Mafia members were also more likely to stay of the day 1 lynch wagon. Where there was no more than 1 on a day 1 lynch wagon. The wagon that mafia are more likely to be on, are the day two wagon. This little data sheet was a quick and dirty one.

[iSocialism]

[KevinH]

I see a strong correlation between town wins and day 1 no-lynches.

[iSocialism]

Along with scum pushing for a day 2 lynch. With Zero hammer votes done by mafia

but yet someone has been sold on voting for the hammer vote. Like on day 2...hmmmm

Canik wanted to see defense, and I know the one way Kevin thinks. So that sheet is my best defense for kevin

[brewersalliance]

hmm but since you provided us those beautiful stats saying "Scum rarely hammer D1, therefore you cant be scum" would be a wonderful defense using statistics for someone who was scum and hammered it in D1...  

[iSocialism]

Yes, it would be. But I have been consistent in that stance for a lot of past game. Maybe you can say I'm purposefully sabotaging other games to keep my perma scum strategy alive.

[brewersalliance]

I think having a specific play style while town to benefit you if you ever get scum in the future is a very solid strategy.  but no, im not saying u sabotaged those games, im saying you could have easily noticed a trend and used that trend to your benefit as scum

[iSocialism]

But that trend would be, being under suspicion because of my choice. Again, a whole lot of WIFOM.

[Canik]

@ iSocialism - I do like that defense better than some of your earlier attempts. I appreciate the effort there. I am leaning more neutral towards you now altho I still hope to see some offense too in the future. 
 

[Robert2424]

IDK if isoc post is messed up, but half of it is blank and I've reloaded 5 times.

The site I learned to play mafia we knew we were blocked even if we were a vanilla townie.

[brewersalliance]

considering deadline is tomorrow, can we get a vote count @mk?

[Lord MK]

Vote Count:

The Warrior (2): brewersalliance, Canik 

iSocialism (1): KevinH
Rafay (1): Lachiton
FrigidInferno (1): Robert2424
Canik(0): 
SeaBeeGipson (0): 
Lachiton (0): 
KevinH (0): 
Vgmmaster (0): 
legoboyvdlp (0): 
Robert2424 (0): 

Brewersalliance (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not Voting: SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior, Rafay, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism, FrigidInferno, Vgmmaster

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, 18th January 2018 at 6 PM UTC.

[legoboyvdlp]

I'll bandwagon this. 

 

Vote: The Warrior

 

Lynch - 1

 

If anyone plans to hammer, POST A FEW HOURS BEFORE!

Vote: The Warrior

 

Proper formatting

[The Warrior]

Since I'm at L-1 I'll go ahead and role claim (even though it probably won't help me in some people's eyes due to my lack of role). I am a Vanilla Townie.

 

If you recall earlier in the game my confusion about how roles from each grouping were chosen (as seen below) it's because I missed the deadline to bid for a role and was assigned a VT role as a result. I never got the opportunity to actually choose a role.

 

 

 

 

I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

 

 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

I think that if you won the bid for a particular set of roles that you got to pick which of the two roles you wanted and the other was discarded from the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

 

 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

I think that if you won the bid for a particular set of roles that you got to pick which of the two roles you wanted and the other was discarded from the game.

 

You didnt get to pick the roles, so it was randomly picked for you.  So that means either TW is playing dumb about this or he didnt get a power role, because if he did get a power role he would have known they were random and not a choice.

 

 

 

 

@MK

 

The way that the roles were presented in the OP seems to indicate that only one role from each line could exist in the game. Is that correct or am I reading that wrong? 

 

 

If the flavor text is not just "flavor text" and is actually hinting at night action it would be interesting (and potentially game altering). Based off of MK's post I am going to assume that the flavor text is indeed hinting at night action. So here is what we know for sure then:

 

1) GoldIron was a 1-Shot Watcher. If my above assumption is correct than it eliminates the possibility of a 1-Shot Commuter role existing in the game which means that I cannot be a Commuter.

 

2)Something happened surrounding SBG. Does the fact that he was running around naked indicate that he attempted to target someone? Perhaps as a Neighborizer or a Fruit Vendor? If SBG is a Neighborizer than I think he is trying to start a nudist colony. Or the text could indicate that he is a fruit vendor running around handing out fruit worthlessly. As trivial as that role seems to be, SBG definitely seems like the type of person that might enjoy picking it.. 

 

3) Something happened to me. The term used by MK ("commuting") does not actually indicate that I am a Commuter (see above). I know that I did not perform an action last night so I am assuming that an action was performed on me. Since I was "driving my vehicle and was stopped by a large crowd formed in the road", I am thinking that someone tried to prevent me from performing a night action. I believe that this means that I was either Roleblocked (which means that we have a roleblocker in the game and no doctor) or that I was "jailed" by a jailkeeper (which means that we do not have a tracker). I am going to assume that if I was role blocked by a roleblocker it was more likely done by a scum roleblocker than a town role blocker. I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

1) correct there cannot be a commuter

2) he was probably targeted by the fruit vendor and ate the fruit which was tainted with drugs

 

I still think either TW or Robert is scum, since Kitkat was very controversial, so the scum could have easily left him alive to be lynched, and the only reason I can think of is that he was actually right with one of them being scum, and kitkat was drawing attention to them with his jokes.  Right now im leaning more towards it being TW.  He was driving to work at night, and who does work at night? vigilantes work at night (Batman).  I think TW was playing dumb about not knowing how the power roles are asinged, and he has a killing power role and is indeed scum, thus trying to throw us off his scent.

 

Vote:  TW

 

 

I was not "playing dumb". It's not my style and I wouldn't insult anyone else's intelligence in that way (scum or not). I legitimately had no idea since I was assigned a VT role.

 

For those of you who would rather lynch a VT than a town power role, I won't blame you for voting for me. But when I am gone you absolutely will have lynched an experienced townie and I will say I told you so in my "bah" post.

 

 

At this point I am still most suspicious of Canik and Rafay. I laid out an entire case against Canik and haven't seen any good reason to deviate from that course of action even though he tried hinting at a role he might potentially have. I just want to remind you all that NO ROLE'S ALIGNMENT IS A GUARANTEE in this game. Except for mine. My role can only be town by definition. So even if you think you know somebody's role, you better push them on it. And to all you other townie's you better start engaging everyone immediately. The later the game gets before someone receives significant pressure, the lower the town's chance is of winning.

 

In order to have my suspicion properly noted:

 

Vote: Canik

 

As far as Rafay is concerned, his playstyle here is how he normally operates so it is not necessarily indicative of scum/town since he's been both, but this style is toxic for the town. I will forever preach that if you are a townie you need to act like a townie. That means pushing people to speak, actively scum hunting and participating, and trying to honestly dig into longer arguments between 2-3 people rather than just ignoring them.

 

Even at the beginning of day 2 after we lynched a town watcher Rafay barely had anything to contribute:

 

 

GoldIron (4): The Warrior, Lachiton, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism

 

 

A lot of people have a lot of explaining to do.

 

Terrible that KitKat got killed. He was targeted due to his activity most likely. 

Looks like a passive aggressive way to cast suspicion on definite townies to me.

 

And this is all that he's come up with in the last several days as we move closer to a second lynch:

 

 

​At the start of D2 SLMK posted flavor text which seemed almost to hint at actions during the night and SLMK confirmed that indeed they did mean something. In the story Robert got blocked by a crowd so we all think he was roleblocked.

 

Interesting.

 

 

 

True. I've been watching Lego tho and I think he's probably legit. 70/30 might be a tad optimistic but he is definitely one of my top town candidates. 

 

That might not be a good information to divulge.

 

 

 

Also it seems Rafay is doing some token posting and ignored my vote on him. I am not removing my vote on him. He did same token posting last mafia game and he turned out scum.

 

Rookie mistake referencing last game. New game, new rules and roles. 

 

1) A token comment about the flavor text meaning something and no actual thoughts given on what that something is.

2) Advice to a player to not share potential town credentials of another player who has at times been suspect.

3) And a comment basically telling people to ignore how he plays the game because it might not apply here. While true, as I noted in an earlier post, a new game does not change the same suspicious behavior.

 

If this is all the town is going to come up with we are royally screwed after you incorrectly lynch someone who is actually trying to dig deeper.

 

 

With a game of 14 players traditional logic suggests that there are either 3 or 4 scum. I'm guessing there are three and I'm betting you will find one in each of these three groups:

1) Canik, Kevin, iSoc, Robert

2) Rafay, SBG, VGM

3) Lachiton, Brewers, lego, Frigid

 

@Lego - Why exactly do you want to bandwagon on me? What is your precise reason for voting for me? If it's because you think I was overzealous in defending myself, that is a terrible reason (which you'll find out soon enough).

[brewersalliance]

Thats a lie TW.  I looked back through the PM and you stated in it you submitted a number for the Draft

Dec 4th 2017 at 1:09pm (my time I think)

If you recall earlier in the game my confusion about how roles from each grouping were chosen (as seen below) it's because I missed the deadline to bid for a role and was assigned a VT role as a result. I never got the opportunity to actually choose a role.

 

[The Warrior]

Thats a lie TW.  I looked back through the PM and you stated in it you submitted a number for the Draft

Dec 4th 2017 at 1:09pm (my time I think)

I submitted a number for draft position (Step 1: The Draft). I did NOT submit a list of roles after the number draft ended (Step 2: Bidding for Roles) because I missed the deadline to actually choose a role. So I had no idea how the roles were actually distributed. That is how I ended up being assigned VT.

[brewersalliance]

wait never mind, i think im wrong, you were talking about submitting the list of roles, I thought you meant the numbers.  My bad my mistake 

 

Thats a lie TW.  I looked back through the PM and you stated in it you submitted a number for the Draft

Dec 4th 2017 at 1:09pm (my time I think)

I submitted a number for draft position. I did NOT submit a list of roles after the number draft ended because I missed the deadline to actually choose a role. So I had no idea how the roles were actually distributed.

 

yeah i just realized that, my bad, i take that back.