1091 replies to this topic

[Robert2424]

I'm still on the fence with plan.

[Ali bin Turban]

I'm still on the fence with plan.

Why are you on the fence? What bothers you about that plan?

[Ali bin Turban]

 

@Samus - AbT has a plan that involves him visiting you which means you'd be reloaded.
 

 

We need 3 people to visit Samus at night: Me, Jazzy and Robert. 1. If we all die, the only explanation is that Samus is a Werewolf PGO and that means that TW is also a scum. We win the game. 2. If at least one of us survives (Rhizo and Werewolves can still target two of us and kill them) that means Samus is not a PGO. If Samus is not PGO, than the only plausible explanation is that he's indeed a Vigilante (he wouldn't ask for a reload in any other scenario as it would not be reasonable). If Samus is Vigilante than at the same time he's town. Vig is a town alignment and KevinH mentioned that he's not swapping alignments - so the only way for Vig to be a scum is when it's mentioned on the Greater Idea Mafia list. And as we see there it's indeed mentioned, but as a possible role for Mafia and not for Werewolves. Therefore by sending 3 people we either win the game or (which is most probable) confirm Samus as a town.

​Looks like a reasonable plan so long as PGO would kill everyone who visits. A big risk tho and I'm not sure it'd win us the game.. are we sure there is only 1 scum left?

​Also if Jazzy investigates me she can't do this too. Not in the same night.

 

Yeah, I'm assuming there are 3 scums in each team. We started with 21 players, which means 14 town vs 6 scum vs 1 SK. That seemed to be more balanced, then for example 12 town vs 8 scum vs 1 SK, or 16 town vs 4 scum vs 1 SK. But yes, we cannot forget about other possibilities.

 

With the roles that are currently on our hands (at least the ones we know), we are unable to trace scum. So we need to think on how to utilize them in order to confirm unknown players as town. Right now we can easily confirm that Canik is a town by sending Jazzy to investigate. If he gets guilty result, then Canik is indeed an universal miller.

 

Confirming Samus is much more complicated (requiring far more people) and there are multiple scenarios where it can go wrong. It could be worth trying before the Canik's revelation but now we don't have enough resources to confirm both of them so it's better to focus on the easiest one.

[Ali bin Turban]

We're focusing too much on worst case scenario's we're forgetting to even consider best case scenarios.

Best case scenario is lynching randomly and always hitting the scum...but is it really worth considering? With your best case scenarios can you tell what do we gain if they succeed? How big are the chances? And most importantly what happens if it fails?

 

And please don't tell that just killing Rhizo at night is a success worth risking. Math shows that this event is not worth to much on its own.

[Robert2424]

IDK how it possibly get us the win. I mean your almost like sending a bunch of townies to die.

[LordSunday]

IDK how it possibly get us the win. I mean your almost like sending a bunch of townies to die.

 

Quite a few posts back AbT made a post analyzing how many mislynches we would have depending on if he chose to reload or not reload Samus tonight. iirc, the number was 3 mislynches in both situations. So if Samus were Werewolf PGO, his killing of all three would lead to his immediate lynch and likely TW after bc TW claimed to have investigated Samus

 

I don't like the idea because it doesn't prove that TW is a Werewolf by proving Samus is. I looked at the role list and it says that Samus would be a Werewolf One-Shot PGO, meaning he may not have used his ability yet or used it on a night when TW didn't visit Samus and thus got the result we see. Even though we'd learn Samus' alignment, it would do nothing to show us the other Werewolf and we'd be 3 less townies for it

[Ali bin Turban]

 

IDK how it possibly get us the win. I mean your almost like sending a bunch of townies to die.

 

Quite a few posts back AbT made a post analyzing how many mislynches we would have depending on if he chose to reload or not reload Samus tonight. iirc, the number was 3 mislynches in both situations. So if Samus were Werewolf PGO, his killing of all three would lead to his immediate lynch and likely TW after bc TW claimed to have investigated Samus

 

I don't like the idea because it doesn't prove that TW is a Werewolf by proving Samus is. I looked at the role list and it says that Samus would be a Werewolf One-Shot PGO, meaning he may not have used his ability yet or used it on a night when TW didn't visit Samus and thus got the result we see. Even though we'd learn Samus' alignment, it would do nothing to show us the other Werewolf and we'd be 3 less townies for it

 

That's right, there's a hole in that analysis, because I did not took into consideration that Samus could be investigated on N1 and use up his PGO charge. Therefore it should be dropped and we should just send Jazzy to visit Canik instead.

[Canik]

Sounds good to me. 

​btw is it just me or has it been forever since Lach posted?

[Samus]

vote Lach

[KevinH]

Vote count:

Rafay (6): Jazzy95, Lachiton, LordSunday, Kitkat16, Brewersalliance, The Warrior,
The Warrior (1): Rafay,
Lachiton (1): Samus, 
Yehom (0):  
Canik (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Jazzy95 (0): 
LordSunday (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Samus (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Kitkat16 (0):
Sister Midnight (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not voting:  Rhizoctonia, Ali bin Turban, Yehom, Sister Midnight, Canik, Robert2424,   

 
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch, or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Saturday, March 3, at 07:00 EST.

[The Warrior]

 

 

IDK how it possibly get us the win. I mean your almost like sending a bunch of townies to die.

 

Quite a few posts back AbT made a post analyzing how many mislynches we would have depending on if he chose to reload or not reload Samus tonight. iirc, the number was 3 mislynches in both situations. So if Samus were Werewolf PGO, his killing of all three would lead to his immediate lynch and likely TW after bc TW claimed to have investigated Samus

 

I don't like the idea because it doesn't prove that TW is a Werewolf by proving Samus is. I looked at the role list and it says that Samus would be a Werewolf One-Shot PGO, meaning he may not have used his ability yet or used it on a night when TW didn't visit Samus and thus got the result we see. Even though we'd learn Samus' alignment, it would do nothing to show us the other Werewolf and we'd be 3 less townies for it

 

That's right, there's a hole in that analysis, because I did not took into consideration that Samus could be investigated on N1 and use up his PGO charge. Therefore it should be dropped and we should just send Jazzy to visit Canik instead.

 

I missed that too when we were discussing a PGO. The only way Samus could have been a PGO is if he was visited on night 1 and that expended his 1-shot. If he was a PGO and was NOT visited on night 1, I would have died on night 2 when I visited him.

 

The only way to confirm that he isn't a PGO now would be for ABT to reload him and have someone else visit him.

 

Sounds good to me. 

​btw is it just me or has it been forever since Lach posted?

It's been awhile, yes.

[Ali bin Turban]

Just to be sure...Jazzy, please do not visit Samus. Instead investigate Canik this night.

[Sister Midnight]

Guys we have a nor’easter here and I lost power. I won’t be on until we get it back to conserve my phone battery

[LordSunday]

Guys we have a nor’easter here and I lost power. I won’t be on until we get it back to conserve my phone battery

 

I can vouch for SM's real life situation... I'm in Buffalo and we got hammered with enough snow to shut down the campus

But the closer to the coast the worse and SM is much closer to the coast than I. Stay safe SM!

[Robert2424]

RL hit me pretty hard. Today is supposed to be my day off but it's not. I'll this and it'll be l-1. 1 to Lynch.

VOTE RAFAY

[Canik]

These days take so long I almost forget there is a deadline. xD

​Glad we didn't end the day early we did get a lot of info, planning, reveals from the day. Good night everyone and don't let the werewolves bite.

​Vote Rafay

 

[KevinH]

Rey: Why did you hate your father? Give me an honest answer. You had a father who loved you; he gave a damn about you!
Ren: I didn't hate him.
Rey: Then why?
Ren: "Why" what? [pauses] "Why" what? Say it.
Rey: [sobbing] Why did you...why did you kill him? I don't understand.
Ren: No. Your parents threw you away like garbage.
Rey: They didn't.
Ren: They did, but you can't stop needing them. It's your greatest weakness. Looking for them everywhere, in Han Solo, and now in Skywalker. Did he tell you what happened that night?
Rey: Yes.
Ren: No. He'd sensed my power, as he senses yours, and he feared it. Let the past die. Kill it, if you have to. It's the only way to become what you were meant to be.
 
Vote count:

Rafay (7): Jazzy95, Lachiton, LordSunday, Kitkat16, Brewersalliance, The Warrior, Robert2424,
The Warrior (1): Rafay,
Lachiton (1): Samus, 
Yehom (0):  
Canik (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Jazzy95 (0): 
LordSunday (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Samus (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Kitkat16 (0):
Sister Midnight (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not voting:  Rhizoctonia, Ali bin Turban, Yehom, Sister Midnight, Canik,    

 
Rafay, The Master Codebreaker, 2-Shot Bulletproof Serial Killer has been lynched.
It is now Night 4.
Please send all actions to me by Monday, March 5, at 22:00 EST.
I will automatically extend the deadline if all actions don't come in by the deadline (is it really a deadline, then?)

[KevinH]

Deadline is extended to Tuesday, March 6, at 10:00 am EST.

[KevinH]

[Rey has returned to her hut after her ordeal in the Mirror Cave]
Rey: I thought I'd find answers here. I was wrong. I've never felt so alone.
Ren: You're not alone.
Rey: Neither are you.
[Rey and Ren reach out to each other through the Force, but Luke notices Rey with Ren as they touch hands]
Luke: [yells] STOP! [he uses the Force to push the hut apart; Ren vanishes]
Rey: [turns to Luke] Is it true? Did you try to murder him?!
Luke: Leave this island! NOW!
[Luke storms off into the rain, but Rey follows him]
Rey: Stop! STOP!! [she hits Luke in the back of the head with her quarterstaff, knocking him down] Did you do it?! Did you create Kylo Ren?! [the two proceed to fight each other along the cliffside until Rey gets the upper hand, forcing Luke into submission with Anakin Skywalker's lightsaber] Tell me the truth.
Luke: I saw darkness. I sensed it building in him. I'd seen it in moments during his training. But then I looked inside, and it was beyond what I ever imagined. Snoke had already turned his heart. He would bring destruction and pain and death, and the end of everything I love because of what he will become, and for the briefest moment of pure instinct, I thought I could stop it. It passed like a fleeting shadow, and I was left with shame and with consequence. And the last thing I saw were the eyes of a frightened boy whose master had failed him.
Rey: You failed him by thinking his choice was made. It wasn't! There's still conflict in him. If he would turn from the Dark Side, that could shift the tide! This could be how we win!
Luke: This is not going to go the way you think!
Rey: It is. Just now, when we touched hands, I saw his future. As solid as I'm seeing you. If I go to him, Ben Solo will turn.
Luke: Rey...don't do this.
Rey: Then he is our last hope.
 

Robert2424, Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo. Town One-shot Gladiator, has been killed in the night.

 

It is now Day 5.

Vote count:

The Warrior (0): 
Lachiton (0): 
Yehom (0):  
Canik (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Jazzy95 (0): 
LordSunday (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Samus (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Kitkat16 (0):
Sister Midnight (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not voting:  Rhizoctonia, Ali bin Turban, Yehom, Sister Midnight, Canik, Jazzy95, Lachiton, LordSunday, Kitkat16, Brewersalliance, The Warrior, Samus

 
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is Saturday, March 17, at 12:00 EDT.

 

[Kitkat16]

i feel like i have a pretty good idea here:

 

Vote: Rhizo