456 replies to this topic

[ccabal86]

While the topic of the day is of course COVID-19, the 2020 US presidential elections are fast approaching. I've created a topic to discuss anything related to that, and to update as events unfold.

 

So, it's still early days, what are everyone's thoughts? What topic will dominate the discussions? (IMO: the Economy and jobs, all the way) Who will be Biden's VP nominee? (My guess: Amy Klobuchar) Will the elections be close? (IMO: Incredibly, Biden is a much more palatable candidate for many than Hillary Clinton), etc.

 

Also, KEEP IT RESPECTFUL. The point is not to win a debate, but to share your point of view.

[Lysistrata]

Biden has painted himself into a corner, and I think he has to pick an African American woman.

 

His best choices by far would be Oprah Winfrey or Michelle Obama.

 

Neither has any experience in elected office, but Trump himself has killed any and all fear of that being an issue. I believe the problem with Oprah is she would never accept second chair to anyone. She is also a mega-billionaire, and Progressives don't trust capitalist billionaires. Plus, because she's a mega-billionaire... and she's much more of a billionaire than Trump will ever be... she won't release her tax returns. This would severely handicap a strong Democrat talking point against Trump. If she tries to release something you can take it to the bank that's it's not the real deal, and Trump will immediately know where to look to exploit the false documents. So, no on Oprah.

 

I don't think for a second that Michelle Obama wants to leave her current wonderful life for the very tall order of debating Mike Pence and attempting to save Joe Biden. I don't think she likes Joe Biden enough to risk the attention. Michelle is a no.

 

Susan Rice has the gravitas, the charisma, and the political chops for the job... but she has always been a behind the curtain player, so she has a name recognition issue. She carries a lot of baggage from her years in the Obama Administration, and may earn herself a little problem that goes by the name of U.S. Attorney John Durham. Susan is a possible.

 

Kamala Harris is a Californian with a well known reputation of sleeping her way to the top. She is never seen as a very serious politician, but she could supply Joe with some much needed populism... but she's still from California, and Biden needs no help winning that monster state and taking all those electors. Kamala is possible... but Rice is a better choice.

 

Stacey Abrams is just a loser all around. Joe needs to stay away from the southern states at all cost. It's a no on Stacey.

 

What Joe really needs he can't have. If I was Joe Biden running against the human juggernaut known as Donald Trump, I would do everything I could to get a populist name on my ticket. The choice would be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She's a goddess to Progressives... but she is also far too young to run on the ticket.

 

No matter what... the song remains the same, and Joe Biden's worst enemy is Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton was a much stronger candidate than Joe Biden, and she lost to Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a much stronger candidate now than he was in 2016 when he won the election against Hillary Clinton. So, it's not likely that Joe can beat Donald. This is of course my opinion... I could be wrong.

[ccabal86]

Interesting perspective. I believe it would be a big mistake for Biden to pick a VP candidate from the progressive side, as it's not them he needs to win over, it's the undecided voters. They aren't many, but more than enough to swing some key states in either direction. At this point the progressive wing will take Biden over Trump no matter what, as they want to avoid a second term at all costs, so he has that vote. A progressive candidate however is guaranteed to dissuade the undecided base to vote Democrat.

[Lysistrata]

You Sir, picked the one that has become the odds on favorite for the Biden VP pick. Amy Klobuchar looks to be the Biden choice. But, todays racist comment from none other than Biden himself... no shocker there... may make that choice a bit uncomfortable.

 

I personally believe Amy would be a solid choice... she's a professional legislator, but she's not well liked. She's got that Whitmer attitude. Not as bad as Gretchen, but even a smidgen of "Devil Woman" can do more harm than neutral.

[ProtoConsilience]

Going to be the biggest, most bad-ass election ever. The Left will pull every dirty trick in the book to get their geriatric pedophile to win. The President will be blamed for what their Communist pal, China did. Then again, the Left has no principles except deceit, manipulation and treason.

[Lysistrata]

Well it's over for her.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/amy-klobuchar-withdraws-from-biden-vp-selection-to-make-room-for-woman-of-color

[Canik]

IMO Trump would have re-election in the bag easy but for some controversial and polarizing things he's done in the last month or two. I know a conservative not happy with harshness against protestors. I know a couple others who have been worried about Trump's strongman personality and while I haven't talked to them lately, I'm sure they don't feel reassured.

Basically, I think Trump has been playing to his already extremely loyal base too much which has kept polarization at a maximum, turning away some moderate support he may otherwise have had assuring his re-election. He may still win anyway but at the moment, I'm not as sure of it as I was a couple months ago.

[brewersalliance]

Trump 2020

[Lysistrata]

IMO Trump would have re-election in the bag easy but for some controversial and polarizing things he's done in the last month or two. I know a conservative not happy with harshness against protestors.

The sole purpose of protesting is to generate attention and change minds. The George Floyd killing has unanimous agreement that the man was utterly slain while he was handcuffed and on his belly. There were no minds that needed to be changed, and the "protests" just created the opportunity for criminals to destroy lives and property. I personally believe they should have been shut down with maximum force. They tried to start shit in Las Vegas too, but our cops are too damn good, with full support from the community, and many were hurt... one of them is paralyzed from the neck down because he was shot in the back of his neck. Shameful.

 

Politicians are supposed to support their constituents. They are not the polarizers. The blame for all the controversy and polarization lies squarely on the shoulders of the Media... which includes Twitter, Facebook, and Google. If Donald Trump was a weak, do nothing President, then he would not be so loudly hated, and they would not be picking at every issue to find a way to have him removed from office. Donald Trump is so utterly hated by the Progressive Socialist Left, because he is so effective at killing their agenda.

I know a couple others who have been worried about Trump's strongman personality and while I haven't talked to them lately, I'm sure they don't feel reassured.

You have a choice… Donald Trump and his "strongman personality"... or Joe Biden and his "dementia". I'll stick with Trump.

Basically, I think Trump has been playing to his already extremely loyal base too much which has kept polarization at a maximum, turning away some moderate support he may otherwise have had assuring his re-election. He may still win anyway but at the moment, I'm not as sure of it as I was a couple months ago.

Starting tomorrow, this election year will finally begin. Flushing Biden out of his compound and into the light will show everyone who he really is. Trump is so bloody smart that he has actually pressed for "more than 3 debates", when he knows damn well that Biden was going to press for no debates. So, now when everyone says that 3 is enough... Trump gets exactly what he wanted to begin with.

[Canik]

The sole purpose of protesting is to generate attention and change minds. The George Floyd killing has unanimous agreement that the man was utterly slain while he was handcuffed and on his belly. There were no minds that needed to be changed, and the "protests" just created the opportunity for criminals to destroy lives and property. I personally believe they should have been shut down with maximum force. They tried to start shit in Las Vegas too, but our cops are too damn good, with full support from the community, and many were hurt... one of them is paralyzed from the neck down because he was shot in the back of his neck. Shameful.

It's not unreasonable to say violent protests, rioting and looting should be meet with force. Peaceful protests tho? Shutting down peaceful protests with maximum force, I believe that's unconstitutional and also a slippery slope.

Politicians are supposed to support their constituents. They are not the polarizers.

You say this as if these things are mutually exclusive, they are not. And while energizing a base can lead to election, if possible, you still want to bring in as many people as possible. If your base will be energized either way, bringing in moderates would assure a win. Which is the situation I think Trump was in, he could be playing it better.

The blame for all the controversy and polarization lies squarely on the shoulders of the Media... which includes Twitter, Facebook, and Google. If Donald Trump was a weak, do nothing President, then he would not be so loudly hated, and they would not be picking at every issue to find a way to have him removed from office. Donald Trump is so utterly hated by the Progressive Socialist Left, because he is so effective at killing their agenda.

Sure, the Media tries to amplify it but "all" the blame?

Starting tomorrow, this election year will finally begin. Flushing Biden out of his compound and into the light will show everyone who he really is.

A lot of people already know Biden is trash. He's Hillary 2.0, maybe not so hated but also not so loved and yeah, with dementia. It's definitely yet another lesser of two evils election. I'm not a big fan of either one.

Trump is so bloody smart that he has actually pressed for "more than 3 debates", when he knows damn well that Biden was going to press for no debates. So, now when everyone says that 3 is enough... Trump gets exactly what he wanted to begin with.

Oh wow, negotiating by demanding a higher amount then settling for a lower middle-ground that really you found acceptable in the first place. What a brilliant innovative new strategy no one has ever thought of before! Bloody genius!

I mean, seriously, it was smart but let's not overplay it here, Lys. Calm down. xD

 

[Lysistrata]

Oh wow, negotiating by demanding a higher amount then settling for a lower middle-ground that really you found acceptable in the first place. What a brilliant innovative new strategy no one has ever thought of before! Bloody genius! I mean, seriously, it was smart but let's not overplay it here, Lys. Calm down. xD

It's an obvious tactic... what was so smart about it was the timing. Biden is hiding in silence, and the compliant media is dead set on allowing him to do just that. This leaves Trump with his bully pulpit to create the battlefield of his choosing.

 

Biden is now forced to choose Kamala Harris for his running mate. The same Kamala Harris that skewered him during their debates for his votes on busing. She has better name recognition, and less baggage, than Susan Rice... but she still laughs when confronted with anything uncomfortable. Sound familiar? That's what Hillary does. She's California, and Joe doesn't need help from them. It would have been better for Joe to choose someone like an Evan Bayh... but he's not female, black, or Progressive enough for 2020.

 

So Joe, with his very own mouth, gets trapped into this mess, and it looks to me like it's gonna be Dukakis 2.0 instead.

 

Joe Biden is not Hillary 2.0... Hillary was a stronger candidate than Joe Biden could ever be.

 

I'm always calm... the only thing that rattles me is stupid mistakes.

[HackSlash]

I've been able to call most elections. 

It didn't surprise me in 2016 when Trump won. 

It didn't surprise me in 2015 when Trudeau won. 

It didn't surprise me in 2019 when Trudeau won a minority. 

 

I guess that's the advantage of being a Political Scientist.  It's in that mode I'm going to talk, as a dispassionate academic.

If the Democrats nominated Saunders, hands down the victor would be Trump.

 

However, they didn't.  They nominated Biden, a moderate.  Someone who is willing to work with Republicans to get things done.  

Given how polarized the American national discourse is right now .  Where Democrats are willing to label anyone who is willing to work with the Republicans a heretic, and the vice versa is true.

It's a hard call.

From everything I've seen to date.  Here's my two cents.  Remember, I don't just rely on American news sources.  At this point, I'm predicting that Trump will be defeated in 2020.

As things firm up, I am more than willing to change my opinion.

[Lysistrata]

At this point, I'm predicting that Trump will be defeated in 2020.

And you're basing this prediction on how unsurprised you were in 2015, 16, and 19? Cool.

 

Since Barack Obama won in 2008, the one that fills the stadiums is the winner.

Watch CSPAN tomorrow evening to witness for yourself.

Someone who is willing to work with Republicans to get things done.

The only thing Joe Biden will be working on... is his memory.

[ccabal86]

Well it's over for her.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/amy-klobuchar-withdraws-from-biden-vp-selection-to-make-room-for-woman-of-color

 

It was over for her when the debate flared up whether she brought or haven't brought charges against Derek Chauvin in 2006. The truth doesn't matter, just being associated with that ordeal, meant she wouldn't be VP candidate.

 

 

 

The sole purpose of protesting is to generate attention and change minds. The George Floyd killing has unanimous agreement that the man was utterly slain while he was handcuffed and on his belly. There were no minds that needed to be changed, and the "protests" just created the opportunity for criminals to destroy lives and property. I personally believe they should have been shut down with maximum force. They tried to start shit in Las Vegas too, but our cops are too damn good, with full support from the community, and many were hurt... one of them is paralyzed from the neck down because he was shot in the back of his neck. Shameful.

It's not unreasonable to say violent protests, rioting and looting should be meet with force. Peaceful protests tho? Shutting down peaceful protests with maximum force, I believe that's unconstitutional and also a slippery slope.
 

I don't know. Initially it was clear that public opinion was a against Trump for how brutally peaceful protests have been met by the police, and Trump endorsing that. But since then, the mob has gotten out of control, starting with lootings at first, then the "woke" goons tearing down anything that somebody labeled as "racist". And that's the whole problem, the Floyd issue was branded as a problem of race and racism, when in fact I don't think that's the master variable. It has much more to do with the lack of police training, vetting of officers, lack of oversight, a confusion over the role of law enforcement, etc.

 

Just think about this, what's the more likely scenario here:

 

1, Derek Chauvin pinned Floyd to the ground in an attempt to end his life. He did this knowing full well that the act was witnessed by several civilians and he was being filmed the whole time. In this case, he had to have known he was headed to prison for 20+ years and still thing it was worth it.

 

2, Derek Chauvin pinned Floyd to the ground for whatever reason, but believing that ultimately no permanent harm would come to him. In which case of course, being filmed would show a simple arrest which in Chauvin's mind would be perfectly legitimate.

 

Whatever the underlying motivations were for Chauvin, unless he's a complete psychopath, I have to go with situation number 2. And in this case the bigger problem is obviously that the Minnesota PD hired a guy who didn't have the brains to figure out that kneeling on someone's neck for 8 minutes 46 seconds will kill him, or - even worse - taught him in training that it's fine to do it.

 

I'm just afraid that the combination of complete miscasting of this issue by the left and the possibility for Trump to positing himself as the law & order president, will get him the second term, and then we'll be in real trouble.

[Canik]

I don't know. Initially it was clear that public opinion was a against Trump for how brutally peaceful protests have been met by the police, and Trump endorsing that. But since then, the mob has gotten out of control

I saw a different timeline. Trump didn't do anything at the start. Governors/Mayors of many areas had the police stay back. There was a lot of peaceful protesting but some groups got very aggressive and were rioting more than protesting. Looters took advantage. Trump started getting harsh, saying he would call in military and "when the looting starts is when the shooting starts".. which, not tolerating looting is acceptable, but he could've worded it better IMO. Since then, the mob seems more in control. Maybe I've missed it but I haven't heard of a bunch of destructive rioting and looting since then. I mean, maybe they've torn down a few statues or w/e but I don't think anyone's livelihood relies on those statues.

Just think about this, what's the more likely scenario here: 1, Derek Chauvin pinned Floyd to the ground in an attempt to end his life. He did this knowing full well that the act was witnessed by several civilians and he was being filmed the whole time. In this case, he had to have known he was headed to prison for 20+ years and still thing it was worth it. 2, Derek Chauvin pinned Floyd to the ground for whatever reason, but believing that ultimately no permanent harm would come to him. In which case of course, being filmed would show a simple arrest which in Chauvin's mind would be perfectly legitimate. Whatever the underlying motivations were for Chauvin, unless he's a complete psychopath, I have to go with situation number 2. And in this case the bigger problem is obviously that the Minnesota PD hired a guy who didn't have the brains to figure out that kneeling on someone's neck for 8 minutes 46 seconds will kill him, or - even worse - taught him in training that it's fine to do it. I'm just afraid that the combination of complete miscasting of this issue by the left and the possibility for Trump to positing himself as the law & order president, will get him the second term, and then we'll be in real trouble.

I agree it probably is scenario 2 but I don't think the outrage is over just this one incident. It's the straw the broke the camel's back.

 

[Canik]

I saw a different timeline. Trump didn't do anything at the start. Governors/Mayors of many areas had the police stay back. There was a lot of peaceful protesting but some groups got very aggressive and were rioting more than protesting. Looters took advantage. Trump started getting harsh, saying he would call in military and "when the looting starts is when the shooting starts".. which, not tolerating looting is acceptable, but he could've worded it better IMO. Since then, the mob seems more in control. Maybe I've missed it but I haven't heard of a bunch of destructive rioting and looting since then. I mean, maybe they've torn down a few statues or w/e but I don't think anyone's livelihood relies on those statues.

btw this makes it sound like Trump got things under control, stopping the looting and the worst of the rioting. I'm not sure how much credit I'd give him tho, maybe he deserves some, but there were *lots* of people including peaceful protesters who wanted the destruction and looting to stop.

[Lysistrata]

Trump has done nothing but talk about ways he could help with the vandalism, looting, burning, and killing. He doesn't have the authority to do more. Trump can only send in the military if it turns to insurrection, and out of control of local authorities. Governors are the ones that call in the National Guard. Mayors are in charge of the police.

 

So in the grand scheme of things, we had politicians shoring up their positions for what they were elected to do. Local elected officials were coddling angry masses... and Trump was calling them out on how fucking weak they are. Those that were most directly affected were the victims of criminals. Hopefully, the worst is over... but George Soros always has more money.

 

Then we have the glorious Media... throwing gas on the fire, and creating a massive herd of mindless sheep.

[Lysistrata]

Obama got one for doing nothing. I believe Trump really wants this, and he's worked really hard for it, but I think the Nobel people are throwing him the nomination with every intention of denying him the prize. Too bad.

 

They had to recognize what he's done, and it will help him with reelection.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize-by-norwegian-official

[onbekende]

MHWUAHAHHAHAHA, their never was a war between UAE and Israel to begin with. Also seems the fellow who did it also did so in 2018, so Trump already lost once

[ccabal86]

No, although, credit where it’s due, the UAE and Israel establishing diplomatic relations is a big thing. Trump probably had little to do with it, it was going to happen anyway.

As for Nobel Peace Prize nominations...Hitler was also nominated (although as a joke).