The play style should be to aid the town, otherwise you're scum suspect.  Nothing Torres has done has advanced the towns knowledge or efforts to find and kill scum.  So he's either a terrible player or scum.....at least in my thinking. 

 

On D2 I lean towards waxing an inactive though.  They're not helping us either.

I guess when lynching experienced player you get high reward / loss depending if he's town / scum. When lynching less experienced player we get low reward / loss. I'm leaving roles out of equation, because we know nothing of it. 

 

Since right now there's probably of around 70% chance on hitting town via random lynch, gambling on a higher stake is not the most optimal route (if ratio was the other way around, that would acctually be a good option)

 

That being said, if Wolfpack keeps being inactive, he'll be our best choice (since inactive town is of little help, while inactive scum is very dangerous). 

gambling on a higher stake is not the most optimal route

 

It seems to me that expected value on either route is the same.

I'm bowing out of this game. I am going on vacation today and I doubt that I will be able to keep up. 

I'm bowing out of this game. I am going on vacation today and I doubt that I will be able to keep up. 

 

And why tw? If he might as well be scum, then torres might as well be scum.

My vote isn't targeted solely towards TW, it is to even the battlefield. As you said, TW and Torres technically both have equal chance to be scum, although Torres appears to be more suspicious. Mafia should be a game of finding scum, not punishing what's considered bad play. So far I've not seen much proof of Torres being scum, and it would be right to say we have no proof of TW being scum either, but as no-lynch is not permitted, a decision must be made. If the majority thinks Torres is scum, my vote won't end up mattering. Ideally, I would like to see this make it to trial.

 

After all, it is D2, evidence is scarce and relying on our judgement is the best thing we've got

Except your vote is solely targeted toward me. That’s exactly what voting for me does.

 

With no information to go off of it is preferable to vote for someone who is either inactive or irrational and unlikely to help the town moving forward. If you’re voting for me because I am “inactive” then you aren’t really voting for someone due to activity. I am here. If you’re voting for me because I am “irrational and unlikely to help town” then you don’t know much about me at all.

 

There are better people to vote for. Trust me.

 

gambling on a higher stake is not the most optimal route

 

It seems to me that expected value on either route is the same.

 

Not at all. When you win what you bet fair game is at 50% chance of win. Chance lower that this (assuming prize does not change) means game's skewed against you, higher chance makes game's skewed in your favor. 

 

Let's say experienced player is like $10 bet. In our lynching game chances are skewed against as. We have 30% of winning $10 and 70% of loosing it. So the outcome is = -$4 (which means unfavorable game, no sane person would play it).

Let's also assume inexperienced player is like $5 bet. The outcome here is = -$2 

 

If we're forced to play betting less is optimal route...unless you're feeling lucky (and that's how people are loosing money on gambling). 

With no information to go off of it is preferable to vote for someone who is either inactive or irrational and unlikely to help the town

moving forward.

Since I've never lived long enough to get to this point in previous two games, I can't draw on experience like most others. I agree with the line of thinking TW expressed, that at this point with really no revelations to go on besides the deaths and the Mod input about Velocity, the only real choice is to vote inactive or not-helpful.  Since Smitty256 announced he's leaving the game, I'm going to put my vote there for now and allow time to sort the other players and intel out.

 

VOTE: Smitty256

 

With no information to go off of it is preferable to vote for someone who is either inactive or irrational and unlikely to help the town

moving forward.

Since I've never lived long enough to get to this point in previous two games, I can't draw on experience like most others. I agree with the line of thinking TW expressed, that at this point with really no revelations to go on besides the deaths and the Mod input about Velocity, the only real choice is to vote inactive or not-helpful.  Since Smitty256 announced he's leaving the game, I'm going to put my vote there for now and allow time to sort the other players and intel out.

 

VOTE: Smitty256

 

This does seem like a prudent action, and saves Brewers from finding a replacement.

 

I reserve the right to revise my vote if a replacement is found.

 

VOTE:  Smitty256

 

 

 

With no information to go off of it is preferable to vote for someone who is either inactive or irrational and unlikely to help the town

moving forward.

Since I've never lived long enough to get to this point in previous two games, I can't draw on experience like most others. I agree with the line of thinking TW expressed, that at this point with really no revelations to go on besides the deaths and the Mod input about Velocity, the only real choice is to vote inactive or not-helpful.  Since Smitty256 announced he's leaving the game, I'm going to put my vote there for now and allow time to sort the other players and intel out.

 

VOTE: Smitty256

 

This does seem like a prudent action, and saves Brewers from finding a replacement.

 

I reserve the right to revise my vote if a replacement is found.

 

VOTE:  Smitty256

 

 

Same here!

 

Vote: Smitty 256

Smitty is replaced by Tony Maurice

Welcome Tony! Glad to have you aboard!

Smitty is replaced by Tony Maurice

Well... F*ck! Nothing against Tony, but now I’m back to undecided 

 

UNVOTE

I'd say we keep hunting down inactives.

 

Vote:Wolfpacks

Lol, maybe Tony boy might slip up again 😂

UNVOTE

 

Not sure if I should get Torres or Wolfpacks..and only WP because of activity,

I honestly have no clue who to vote for. There is no info to go off of.

Torres's attitude worries me. Yes it's just a game.. and sometimes I am not as ruthless as I would be in the interest of making the game more enjoyable for people. Like Dontavian, he says he's never made it to late game, now I'm less eager to lynch him early. Ultimately though I don't think the game would be fun if no one took it seriously. Most people, including myself, have fun trying to win. And if you're on a team, you have a responsibility to them to not ruin their game by not trying at all.

Hmm.. I wonder if Torres is jester. They win if they get lynched right? xD

^ because of that possibility and also at least Torres is active..

unvote

Vote Wolfpacks

 

 

Hmm.. I wonder if Torres is jester. They win if they get lynched right? xD ^ because of that possibility and also at least Torres is active.. unvote Vote Wolfpacks

 

This is not out of the realm of possibility. It has happened before 

If nothing else comes up, I'll vote for Wolfpacks, too.

Vote: Wolfpacks 

 

Due to low activity and the discussions above about at least Torres is active and possibly a Jester.  Pretty sure there wasn’t a Jester at the Red Wedding... plenty of treachery and an abysmal band.

Still nothing from Wolfpacks. Taking inactives out is more important (than Torres) given our current condition.

 

Also judging on how fast Donatavian, Finster, Torres jumped on Smitty/Tony wagon, due to his inactivity, they're probably not in the same team with him. Though it begs a question why they aren't / weren't voting on the inactive Wolfpack? One more reason to see whether Wolfpack bleeds in red or green. 

 

unvote

 

vote: Wolfpacks

I see Donatavian votes, as I wrote my message

sorry im back been busy at work, as some of you know i drive for a living and so dont get much chance to type

Still nothing from Wolfpacks. Taking inactives out is more important (than Torres) given our current condition.

 

Also judging on how fast Donatavian, Finster, Torres jumped on Smitty/Tony wagon, due to his inactivity, they're probably not in the same team with him. Though it begs a question why they aren't / weren't voting on the inactive Wolfpack? One more reason to see whether Wolfpack bleeds in red or green. 

 

unvote

 

vote: Wolfpacks

I see Donatavian votes, as I wrote my message

I just thought it was a good idea, since Smitty said he was unable to continue, and Brewers wasn't available.  I even said in my vote I would pull it back if a replacement was found, and I did exactly that.

 

I see WP has posted.  Still very inactive, so I lean that way right now.  I'd like to vote for Torres but the Jester aspect gives me pause.

I’m torn on what to do right now. On one hand Smitty being replaced makes me want to give Tony a chance but on the other hand I’m not really sure what Tony is going to do to help either. He also hasn’t posted yet since he was announced as a replacement.

 

Then there is Wolfpacks. He is at the bottom of the post count but did just return. He would be a reasonable lynch candidate if he’s unable to contribute but it’s also not unusual for him to go a few days at a time without posting.

 

@Wolfpacks - Do you have any thoughts? Do you expect to be able to contribute moving forward?

 

Also, @Torres - if you are town you need to actually make an effort to contribute.