866 replies to this topic

[lilweirdward]

Yeah I actually do agree with AbT and brewers. It sounds fun but it seems too easy to mess up - not even for the VTs but also the JOATs.

[brewersalliance]

I guess tho u can use the same logic the other way

Our town will be far less talented than the championship series town but so will our scum

So now that I think of it we can't really assume the same results. It's just as likely that our less active or skilled players will be scum as town.

In those games the scum were all pro players and were able to take advantage of the set up. That might not be the case here depending on who pulls scum.
I do still actually stand by tho on my no lunch vote

In odd number games no Lynch gives you an extra day until lylo. And with the way this game is set up and how it's played out, I think we will need the extra day tbh
I normally hate no Lynch


But this game requires us to be able to identify scum based on our posts. We can't rely on PRs to win this game. And as a community I lack the faith that we will do so successfully 🤣😂😂

So I'd rather have the extra day before lylo

Also we almost always no Lynch in most of our games

Why is the one time I suggest it the only time it's actually getting a large amount of backlash. Wtf people lol

[Ali bin Turban]

The only reason I'm suggesting to vote no Lynch is because scum are winning at a 4:1 clip lol

If that strategy ferastical pulled is so strong and this game is town tilted like he said THEN WHY IS TOWN ALWAYS LOSING?

We should change up what they are doing. Try something different.

If we just keep doing exactly what's happening in the mafia series guess what? We are more likely than not going to get the exact same results. A loss

While trying something new is comendable, but it needs to be viable at least in theory. 

 

Saying "let's try this and this, because they didn't" is not an argument. I'm pretty sure in none of those games JOATs RCed on D1, but that does it make a good idea to try? I don't think so. If you say "let's try no lynch" you need to have some real arguments that support this approach. 

 

Let's assume we don't lynch today. Most probably night won't give us any information (2 JOATs have 14% chance of finding kill performing scum IF they use their tracking abilities). So D2 will be exactly the same as D1. Why would we lynch anyone on D2 if on D1 being in the same situation we didn't? And if you wan't to lynch on D2, then why didn't you on D1, given conditions will be exactly the same? 

 

In odd number games no Lynch gives you an extra day until lylo. And with the way this game is set up and how it's played out, I think we will need the extra day tbh

 

 

This is actually not true. Stop being lazy, checking numbers is easy: 

 

D1    No Lynch    12    3       Lynch     12    3

D2    Lynch         11    3       Lynch     10    3

D3    Lynch         9    3        Lynch     8    3

D4    Lynch         7    3        Lynch     6    3

D5    Lynch         5    3        Lynch     4    3

D6    We lose      3    3        We lose    2    3

 

We'd need to go 2 days of no lynch to gain one more day. 

[Ferastical]

 

 

Not totally worthless... If a JOAT posts that he/she tracked X on N2, and gets knocked out immediately N3, you might want to suspect X, for example

That is not true. The likehood of JOAT tracking town and being killed on the next night is far greater than tracking mafia killer and then getting killed on the next night. 8 times out of 10 that X you want to suspect will be town.
That Cop Niner tactic worked because players not only posted who they visit, but also posted results (non cops were making them up). When vanila died you know his result was a fiction, but when cop died you know it was true. And it was somewhat working, because there are just two results: guilty / not guilty (so it's harder to tell whether someone is a cop or just making up things) and because every cop's result was valuable (not finding a scum was valuable too).

We don't have that easy. First of all JOAT posting his result as "nothing detected" has no value (either town or scum that did nothing that night). Secondly JOAT posting result of kill detection is mostly dead because he most probably will be a target at night.

This makes a lot of sense

You can easily say x is guilty/not guilty

But the JOATs have multiple abilities.

People are gonna just confuse the shit out of everyone

So and so visited so and so. I protected blah blah

The fabrications will be WAYYYY too in depth. It won't really get us anywhere

 

 

 

Not totally worthless... If a JOAT posts that he/she tracked X on N2, and gets knocked out immediately N3, you might want to suspect X, for example 

 

 

That is not true. The likehood of JOAT tracking town and being killed on the next night is far greater than tracking mafia killer and then getting killed on the next night. 8 times out of 10 that X you want to suspect will be town.

That Cop Niner tactic worked because players not only posted who they visit, but also posted results (non cops were making them up). When vanila died you know his result was a fiction, but when cop died you know it was true. And it was somewhat working, because there are just two results: guilty / not guilty (so it's harder to tell whether someone is a cop or just making up things) and because every cop's result was valuable (not finding a scum was valuable too). 

 

We don't have that easy. First of all JOAT posting his result as "nothing detected" has no value (either town or scum that did nothing that night). Secondly JOAT posting result of kill detection is mostly dead because he most probably will be a target at night.

 

 

You're focusing too heavily on the tracker side of things, remember that anyone (including JOATs) can claim smart motion detector and doctor claims as well, and there they can give results as much as their heart desires (except for the critical exception of course) That's because if during a tracker claim, the person who the target visited in most cases is a major clue to Mafia to rule out who JOATs can and can not be.

 

So yes, I see where this could mess up. But I still believe that if we'd have the chance to try, we'd make it work...

 

Let's just agree that we don't have the "necessary amount of mafia-XP" to attempt that strategy, maybe once we gather more experience we can try some more high-risk/high-reward plays   

[Ali bin Turban]

You're just saying it will work. Why don't you show some example that supports your theory? 

And please, whatever you do. Don't use your doc ability tonight.

 

 

This one is actually a very bad advice. I could even go as far as to say it's a scummy advice. It's like an invitation "dear scum go ahead and target one of the most experienced townies right away, there will be no risk of missing the shot". 

[Rafay]

Wow so much activity right on the first day RL!!!

[lilweirdward]

In odd number games no Lynch gives you an extra day until lylo. And with the way this game is set up and how it's played out, I think we will need the extra day tbh

This is actually not true. Stop being lazy, checking numbers is easy:

D1 No Lynch 12 3 Lynch 12 3
D2 Lynch 11 3 Lynch 10 3
D3 Lynch 9 3 Lynch 8 3
D4 Lynch 7 3 Lynch 6 3
D5 Lynch 5 3 Lynch 4 3
D6 We lose 3 3 We lose 2 3

We'd need to go 2 days of no lynch to gain one more day.

Yesssss, thank you for this. Technically we could also get an extra day by having a successful doctor save, but banking on that happening is dumb as all get out lol.

And please, whatever you do. Don't use your doc ability tonight.

This one is actually a very bad advice. I could even go as far as to say it's a scummy advice. It's like an invitation "dear scum go ahead and target one of the most experienced townies right away, there will be no risk of missing the shot".

Don't worry, MK never targets the most experienced players for the N1 kill, so we're safe

[Ferastical]

You're just saying it will work. Why don't you show some example that supports your theory? 

 

 

And please, whatever you do. Don't use your doc ability tonight.

 

 

This one is actually a very bad advice. I could even go as far as to say it's a scummy advice. It's like an invitation "dear scum go ahead and target one of the most experienced townies right away, there will be no risk of missing the shot". 

 

Well, it isn't a theory, it's a strategy, and it's not mine, so I haven't though of every aspect, I can confess. It was just so damn clever, I thought it would be good to share it. 

 

But as time has passed it's become obvious we don't really have the experience to attempt this and we're already losing motivation... so guess we can use the extra posts for possible reads, if anything.

 

And what I don't get now, is how exactly is MK's advice "very bad"? What do you suggest otherwise, for the JOATs to use doc on a random person, gather no evidence for the first night, and have to watch by being able to do nothing as someone is obviously going to be targeted at N2 or N3? If there's anyone going around with a scummy vibe, it's you.

[lilweirdward]

It's not bad strategy if you think it yourself, but openly telegraphing that no one is going to use a doctor attempt today makes scum's job even easier tomorrow. Technically, a JOAT has as good a chance of stopping a kill as they do of finding the mafia who's executing the night kill, and stopping a kill is by far the best way to drag this game out because we gain information and don't lose a player.

Not saying it's a perfect strategy but I agree with AbT that MK trying to coach the JOATs to do their actions a specific way feels kind of scummy.

[Robert2424]

@ABT, I have to Disagree. I would Consider myself an Experienced Mafia player, and Value No Lynches on day one. Having played 2006 has mad such conclusion. Idk where these supposive 11 Experenced mafia players were but there has been and always will be two camp. One always for Day 1 lynching and one against. There is always a chance to lynch scum on day one, there is no disputing it. However, lynching scum is about as low as your statistics on waiting for a JOAT to get lynch results. People mainly lynch on day one by Trolling or randomness. Without much logic behind it to begin with. The day 1 lynch camp will always point to the once or twice they've ever lynched scum on Day one as evidence that day 1 lynching is 100% worth it without pointing to the other odd 100 that they lynched a town. 

[The Warrior]

This game's day 1 is no different than any other game's day 1. We're having the same lynch or no lynch discussion that we'd have in any other game. The only reason this one feels any different at all is because we know that we only have 2 town power roles with which to gain any actual information. I don't think a day 1 lynch here will get us anything honestly. We have nothing to go off of and will probably just end up voting for the least active since they have the same chance to be scum as anyone else. So again it will just be taken with a grain of salt.

[Ali bin Turban]

Lot of you are supporting "no lynch", yet none of you explain what do you expect to happen on D2 and D3 and other days. In games when we have power roles (and let me add: reliable power roles) waiting is OK solution, but what are we waiting for here? 

 

There's a big chance our JOATs will literaly get nothing over the course of the whole game. They're not cops, they can't confirm townies. They only succeed when they catch scum redhanded.

 

So what's the plan for D2? 

 

And what I don't get now, is how exactly is MK's advice "very bad"? What do you suggest otherwise, for the JOATs to use doc on a random person, gather no evidence for the first night, and have to watch by being able to do nothing as someone is obviously going to be targeted at N2 or N3? If there's anyone going around with a scummy vibe, it's you.

For example: Let's assume TW is a town. He's a really good player. Assuming JOATs would be discouraged from using doctor tonight, he'd be main target to die. 

I suggest nothing to JOAT's. It's their choice to use any role they want. Maybe there will be doctor in play, maybe not. That leaves scum guessing.

 

Also please share your feelings about my supposed scummy vibe? Is it because I'm pointing out flaws in your plan? 

[Lord MK]

ABT, you always have had a scummy vibe, lol.

I'm not trying to coach the Joats, I'm just saying gaining information is more important on n1.

If you really want to, you can do a motion detection on tw.
That way, you will atleast know if anyone visited tw.
Or if tw has committed any actions tonight.

If you choose to doc tw, and tw kills someone you won't know it.


The best strategy is for one Joat to protect me or tw, then the other to motion detect me or tw.
That way, one of the Joat will know the other.
.
Also about me being Scum, why would i push so hard for a NL?
Lynching is more advantageous to me as scum, one less town to kill.

[Lyner]

Lot of you are supporting "no lynch", yet none of you explain what do you expect to happen on D2 and D3 and other days. In games when we have power roles (and let me add: reliable power roles) waiting is OK solution, but what are we waiting for here? 

 

There's a big chance our JOATs will literaly get nothing over the course of the whole game. They're not cops, they can't confirm townies. They only succeed when they catch scum redhanded.

 

So what's the plan for D2? 

 

Instead of starting with 15 players with no info, we are starting with 14 players with 17% chance of JoaT finding dirt

[lilweirdward]

17% chance of JoaT finding dirt

Please say sike... Only one mafia can actually be tracked doing the kill. It's 7% not 17.

[Tony Maurice]

Wow, brewers dodged question, scum tell.

[Lyner]

 

17% chance of JoaT finding dirt

Please say sike... Only one mafia can actually be tracked doing the kill. It's 7% not 17.

 

woops 14%

1 joat has roughly 7% chance of hitting one scum in action, so 2 joat has approximately 14%

[Ali bin Turban]

Start thinking beyond current day.

Joat has 2 investigative actions per 3 nights. Hes roughly 7% to find a killer. If they both live, after 3 nights theres 27% chance they find something. Roughly 20% chance to find something after 2 nights ( this assuming they might use doctor too)

Right now we have 4 lynch chances ( we lose after 5th misslynch). First lynches ( assuming randomness ) have around 20% of finding scums.
All that means we have following options:

- no lynch today, lynch tomorrow + 2 night investigations = 38% of finding scum. 2 lynch chances left ( if we misslynch)
- lynch today, lynch tomorrow + 2 night investigations = 50% of finding scum. 2 lynch chances left ( if we misslynch both times)
- no lynch, no lynch + 2 night investigations = 20% of finding scum. 3 lynch chances left

And I think this solves the mystery of why those experienced players were choosing to lynch every time on d1.

[Ferastical]

Also please share your feelings about my supposed scummy vibe? Is it because I'm pointing out flaws in your plan? 

 

 

What? No... talking about strategies we could use to win the game and pointing out potential flaws is totally justified. I just want you to think about what you're saying. You're advocating very strongly against not lynching, although we most probably are going to lynch a town, but when it comes to the NK, you're suddenly concerned? That's the thing, in your example, TW is the only person to know that he's town. Others do not have that information. And information is the only way the town can get an advantage.

 

And you can't possibly present the person's experience as the only reason for them to be docced. Once again, we do not have sufficient information, especially on D1. What if that person is Mafia? What if Mafia now knows to target someone else, because that person most probably is going to be docced? What if TW wasn't the target in the first place? There is always that uncertainty. In the following days, as NKs begin to clear the air and potential attack targets become more certain, having an available doc power is way more certain to save someone. And, in addition, we may have gathered info on N1.

 

Other thing I need to repeat is that we're collectively putting way too much pressure on the JOATs. Apart from them, this is just a Mafia game with no power roles, the town just happened to get 2 more members that have the possibility of providing valuable information. Something doesn't end up going well, the scum is obviously going to put the JOATs on the pedestal, and undermining our towny morale in the process. That being said, as we have no information to go off yet, lynching a "sus" on D1 is just ridiculous.

[Ferastical]

Right now we have 4 lynch chances ( we lose after 5th misslynch). First lynches ( assuming randomness ) have around 20% of finding scums. All that means we have following options: - no lynch today, lynch tomorrow + 2 night investigations = 38% of finding scum. 2 lynch chances left ( if we misslynch) - lynch today, lynch tomorrow + 2 night investigations = 50% of finding scum. 2 lynch chances left ( if we misslynch both times) - no lynch, no lynch + 2 night investigations = 20% of finding scum. 3 lynch chances left And I think this solves the mystery of why those experienced players were choosing to lynch every time on d1.

 

Now you're just not listening   

Lynching CAN NOT be boiled down to just basic numbers. There are human minds at play. There are going to be biased posts, fake claims, "scum tells" and much more flying all around the place. Lynching here is never totally random. You really want to go forward with this? Fine then, let's get a random machine-generator thingy to organize the actual random lynching. Wait, the scum doesn't want that, since they now don't have the possibility to talk themselves out of getting lynched anymore? Duh. Not only that, I'm very much guessing not every townie wishes to sacrifice themselves to this playstyle. It would be a total outrage. So outta here with that randomness poppycock.