There's a 76% chance that any lynch candidate is town today, so not exactly a flip of the coin lol.

I’m sort of on the fence, but looking at it how ferastical said it, if we don’t lynch we have a 0% chance of lynching a townie, but we also have a 0% chance of lynching a scum. If we do lynch, we have a ~24% chance to hit scum, and a ~76% chance (as lww said) of hitting town. That’s about it a 1/4 chance of hitting scum. If we did lynch scum, it would be very helpful to town. If we lynch town, it increases the chances we have of hitting scum in a further day, but also brings lylo closer. What we have here is basically early-game mafia, do we lynch and risk hitting town but maybe just hit scum?

I’m holding off for now.

 

My birthday is tomorrow, and it’s the start of my Christmas vacation so I might not post the next day or two.

 Seeing as we have 12 DAYS left, I don't really feel rushed to vote on anyone.

Agree with Ferastical on this...

LWW

This is one of those situations where I really wish AbT was active and around, since he would at least help tally up the numbers and provide some good probabilities, which would make me feel better about either approach.

@Kevin, has AbT answered his role PM or acknowledged that he’s playing this game?

Lynch lww, the guy advocating for town forfeiting their most important power.

He wants to take out votes away.

He wants to take our voices away.

 

Lynch him and say no to authoritarianism.

abt was replaced in the other game and my game.  both he said he was not going to be able to play

 

i doubt he is going to be able to play this game

 

do we have a potential replacement?

Politics a great way to spoil the mood

 

I mean that's why I didn't want to turn it into a full political argument. Brewers threw a lil' jab so I did too, not sure why MK is stuck on it lol. 

 

 

Politics a great way to spoil the mood

I mean that's why I didn't want to turn it into a full political argument. Brewers threw a lil' jab so I did too, not sure why MK is stuck on it lol.

Oo, i sense a bit of butthurt in there, but ah, whatever.

 

 

Politics a great way to spoil the mood

I mean that's why I didn't want to turn it into a full political argument. Brewers threw a lil' jab so I did too, not sure why MK is stuck on it lol.

Oo, i sense a bit of butthurt in there, but ah, whatever.

 

 

 

The only butthurt I can see is yours so far but mkay lol. 

 

 

 

 

Politics a great way to spoil the mood

I mean that's why I didn't want to turn it into a full political argument. Brewers threw a lil' jab so I did too, not sure why MK is stuck on it lol.

Oo, i sense a bit of butthurt in there, but ah, whatever.

 

The only butthurt I can see is yours so far but mkay lol.

Yes, i was wondering when we will be starting to get to personal attacks.

Since you did, i guess i won.

 

Yes, i was wondering when we will be starting to get to personal attacks.

Since you did, i guess i won.

 

 

lolwut? You accuse me of being butthurt to which I reply 'NO U' (which lol come on I can do better than that but I really am trying to shut this stupid side conversation down but you just won't let it die) and somehow I am the one resorting to "personal attacks"?  Road2Delusions.

Okay lets be honest, me rising to every bait isn't letting it die either 

Okay lets be honest, me rising to every bait isn't letting it die either

After we get into the R2D territory I usually just stop acknowledging it, usually works.

Vote Count

Lilweirdward (4): Torres951, Lord MK, Brewersalliance, Finster Baby,
Brewersalliance (3): Robert2424, Rafay, Chaplain of death,
Robert2424 (1): Tony Maurice,
Rafay (1): Kaziocore,
The Warrior (0):
Kaziocore (0):
Ali bin Turban
Chaplain of death
Dontavian
Ferastical
Finster Baby
Lord MK
Lyner
Tony Maurice
Torres951
Velocity
Wolfpacks

No Lynch (2): Lilweirdward, Wolfpacks,

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, Dontavian, Ferastical, Lyner, The Warrior, Velocity,

 
With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
There is not a deadline half-majority lynch.
Deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday, December 30 at 17:00 EST

Ali bin Turban has not read his PM yet. I'll post for a replacement.

I feel politics should be left out of mafia. It has no bearing on the game at all. 

The best way to solve this issue is vote Robert for president in 2424 and he will stop,the establishment

Sorry for being inactive, we're always busy here during the holidays.

 

And I agree with Robert. Let's avoid talking about politics to avoid spamming the game and besides, not everyone is from the US

 

---

 

I 100% disagree with no lynching as it gives a free pass for the mafia for D1 and we won't have wagons to analyze the next day. To even consider no lynching more than a day is very suspicious

 

Anyway my vote stays with Rafay because it felt like he was just posting to appear active.

 

He noted that Lyner uncharacteristically supported No Lynch on D1 but didn't act on it like for say voting for him. He didn't even give an opinion regarding Lilweirdward and brewer's debate.

and even if you say oops, you forgot the scum get four of those roles, you still have no idea what those roles are. you are therefor relying on a couple things: the RNG workts out in the towns favor and the town players will randomly guess the scum players with their actions if we just vote no lynvh every day, no one will have a single reason for who they pick for their actions other than guessing. so the game will come down to pure dumb luck if town manages to miss scum with their actions and we no lynch every single day scum will have a HUGE edge. we will have nothing to go off for future days, and we will have three dead townies and no idea who might or might not be scum, and then we will also have no more actions that can be done. this is a terrible strategy IMO and as to me, it relies solely on pure luck. And when you factor in how poor the strategy is with you competently leaving out the fact that scum get 4 of the roles and 1 is discarded while making it look like town has more abilities than they really do, i think there is a chance you are scum and were trying to come up with a strategy that appears pro town when in reality it is not pro town. and it seemed to have worked at first, as we did get someone to post saying they think you are town because of this. but when you actually dig into the strategy, it is not pro town, and it is filled with inaccuracies/misinformation about the distribution of roles

To be honest I also didn't know that the mafia can also get the random roles lol

 

But yeah in the worst case, there would only be 4 town players with actions tomorrow (if 4 mafia players have all the roles and 1 out of 5 town players with abilities gets killed) and these players won't necessarily have an informed opinion on who to vote tomorrow

Yes that's true.

We can't really depend on the PRs that much

 

 

  especially on a first date.  nothing will get you in her pants quicker than talking about God, Guns, and Donald Trump 

 

lmao what if shes an AOC supporter tho? 

 

Unvote

 

Vote: LWW

Rafay is ignoring me FeelsWeirdMan

I 100% disagree with no lynching as it gives a free pass for the mafia for D1 and we won't have wagons to analyze the next day. To even consider no lynching more than a day is very suspicious

 

I'll argue for this one more time and then give it up since I can't convince everyone on my own lol.

 

Normally I agree, lynching gives us vote patterns which is generally the most reliable source of information we can use as town to find scum. Even in games with useful town roles or closed role madness games I usually advocate for lynching D1 (and obviously beyond) since it's too risky to depend on a few roles or a bunch of unknowns to pull through.

 

In this game though, we have two important factors:

 

1) Literally every single player has a power role, and the vast majority of those roles are pretty much only useful to town in this specific setup. With 17 players and 13 town, that's A LOT of information, and with an open setup, we know with relatively high certainty what to expect (other than which roles mafia got and which role is missing).

 

2) All of those roles become useless after N4, and most are useless after N3. This is why I've been saying that cop or tracking roles aren't useful for mafia in this specific game, since they really only have 2 nights to make any use of the information at all, assuming they aren't blocked/jailed/etc. Similarly once we get past that point, the game gets WAY harder for town since the whole game basically goes vanilla, and whatever information we have up to that point is all we get aside from lynched and NKs.

 

That's why I think it's at least worth considering no lynching for a few days. If we maximize the players alive and information available when the game goes vanilla, we might have the best chance to win the game since it seems extremely unlikely that we couldn't figure out the scum with all those results and 3.5 days to get it right. We could always ignore the setup and just play a normal game, but it's at least worth analyzing since it's an open setup, right? It's ok to take a non traditional approach if it works, which it arguably did in the last championship setup game we did here.

 

 

especially on a first date. nothing will get you in her pants quicker than talking about God, Guns, and Donald Trump

lmao what if shes an AOC supporter tho?

 

Unvote

 

Vote: LWW

Completely ignoring Kazio and voting me without any reason? Interesting.

 

especially on a first date. nothing will get you in her pants quicker than talking about God, Guns, and Donald Trump

lmao what if shes an AOC supporter tho? [/b]

Well, then she got good taste.

AOC for 2024.

 

 

lmao what if shes an AOC supporter tho? 

 

 

LOL she actually does support aoc.  shes a hard core liberal ;p

 

 

 

I'll argue for this one more time and then give it up since I can't convince everyone on my own lol.

 

because its a bad idea lol 

 

 

Rafay is ignoring me FeelsWeirdMan

 

No I'm not ol chum. I'm sorry it felt that way to you. Welcome back.

Rafay is ignoring me FeelsWeirdMan

 

Feels nostalgic to me. Rafay usually ignored me lol.

Vote: Kaziocore for being party pooper