Okay apparently the active time for this group is in the middle of the day, and you people have been going at it like crazy since my last post @.@
I'm going to limit the sheer number of multiquotes I pick and respond to some others for brevity trying to track all the back and forth you lot have had. And I say "back and forth" because it feels like there's some personal grudges at play here beyond just game analysis.
We now know Zacch's protection targets (Brewers, Imran, Velocity) and that Velocity watched LWW and saw nothing, which supports theory of a scum roleblocker. With the actual cop dead and velocity known/blockable, I can only assume they'll keep him blind the rest of the game. However if they want to finish getting stones then Zacch will actually give them a problem - they'd have to spend a night kill on Zacch to remove his Bodyguard unless they block him in order to get Velocity.
Which leads me to MK's post that I'll trim for brevity - mingled kill/role information is great, amused you're calling LWW "Lily", but then we have this:
I'm curious about what MK posted before the day ended - you DONT believe Velocity's Vision claim with mind stone, even now after everyone did an emergency wagon shift from Velocity to Jazzy yesterday? Brewers/LWW have made a strong point that TW could have given main character Avenger roles as safeclaims, but then heavily backed off of Velocity on the theory that stone roles shouldn't be fakeable - can you elaborate on why you don't think Velocity is who he says he is? This would be a VERY bad thing to get wrong.
I don't believe his claim at all.
Look at his results
N1, no result
N2, Didn't see anything
N3, No result
A bit too convenient for me.
As for vision not countering, well that's one thing. Thus why I'm not voting for him currently.
Killed Tony? Oh really? That's news to me. You going to claim Tracker and supposedly tracked me visiting Tony on any night? Please. Go ahead. Cause if you do, I know you are lying because I never visited Tony. Nor am I a vig. So please. Back up your claim so I jump all over you. How did I kill Tony? Through my mind because I believe he was scum?
There it is, folks.
He got really defensive as predicted.
So you didn't make the kill, your buddy did?
Well regardless you orchested it
I won't disagree that Velocity's watcher has provided us relatively little in terms of scumhunting, but if it's confirmed a roleblocker that's at least SOMETHING? ... except as I write this, I have to say that he hasnt CONFIRMED a roleblocker, just stated he's getting No result.
Devils' advocate to satisfy my OCD:
If I assume that per MK Velocity is actually scum and has Vision as a safeclaim - Vision isnt ACTUALLY one of the original 'avengers' - but neither was Dr. Strange. We also didn't expect Star-Lord to have the Reality stone vs The Collector, so TW could be taking some creative liberties here - maybe to prevent the idea that someone claiming a stone role would instantly prove them town? That is also EXACTLY what happened on D3, we all rapidly pivoted from Velocity onto Jazzy as soon as 'Vision' was mentioned. Giving one such role to scum MIGHT make sense, but it still feels a stretch.
And then we have the beginning of MK and Robert going back and forth. MK did say that Robert killed Tony as if it's been proven, which is a big statement - though Robert's reaction is basically a challenge to back it up and delivered not exactly calmly. And then your response is instead saying someone else made the kill? Literally speaking that IS changing your story, but moreover it reinforces that this whole mess between you two feels to be personality/history based instead of game content related.
Somewhat out of order, but next we have Brewers - who overall thus far in the day seems to be going back and forth between Robert and Imran in a similar manner as MK.
Before things get personal, you have some good analysis of your town/scum list to help us narrow down who remains. I kindof blinked a bit at your statement that refusing to take a vote off Velocity is just something Town MK does... I'll just chalk that up to history, since I don't see MK as scum.
Therefore focusing on these:
Robert
Lyner
Imran
Isoc 2
Robert, ive detailed my susoicsions of him before
Lyner:
And Dark Fox, brewers mentioned that he knows you are town, and that for some reason you know that he knows. Can you confirm this?
Feels like this could be fishing to get dark fox to give out some info to know if he is a good target for scum or not
Isoc 2... yeah someone else needs to jump into him for me, idk who he even replaced...
Imran
An extremely common scum move is commenting on how much a night kill hurt the town, or if a kill is blocked how good that is. And im thinking that might be the case here
Vote imran
In order:
- At this point in the day Robert is just a continuation of yesterday, which seems predicated on him being early to jump on Kevin and then his OOC dislike of Tony being treated as a reason the scum killed him.
- Lyner merits a listing here for calling out something Brewers said earlier, aside from just his inactivity that had been suspicious enough in itself, though today he is posting.
- iSoc2... I had him as my #2 suspect yesterday before Velocity claimed; none of that sank in? Not even the part where on D2 and D3 both he picked out LWW as his target? I guess I"ll be the 'someone else' at the end of this post and bring all that up again.
- Imran - this surprised me a lot when I got to this point. So far Imran's posts have read as fairly even-mannered, and I am failing to see the logical contradiction in what Brewers quoted here - just "This is no good" as the basis for a vote, not taking into account anything else like voting at this point in time? Maybe I"m not up on Scum Tells 101 but this felt like a D1 or D2 rationale.
And of course Imran calls that out immediately:
An extremely common scum move is commenting on how much a night kill hurt the town, or if a kill is blocked how good that is. And im thinking that might be the case here
wow..thats very thin.
I am actually very leery of any assumptions you make, because you have led and organized the lynch of tow townies so far. You were also about to lynch Velocity before Velocity claimed stone. I am at the this point wondering your outrage at the death of TM was not all a show or not. If you are scum you have led the town on a merry chase.
And here again a quick jump on the Robert wagon. Lets remember we may be at a LYLO situation as Lyner had commented earlier. But you seem to want to end the day early basing your votes on one line of what I had said.
Vote: brewers
On one level this is an OMGUS vote. On the other, this does indeed feel 'thin' from Brewers - it matched my reaction when I read these posts. However from here things took a dive off the deep end because Imran said that Brewers has "led and organized the lynch of [two] townies so far". My first thought was that Imran wasnt FULLY wrong - Brewers owns that he STARTED the Kevin wagon, and he remained a forceful voice on D3 if not 'THE' driving voice on his own.
Before that though Imran addressed DF and myself, and that merits a look.
Terrible play by scum. lilweirdward was a prime suspect after Jazzy was lynched.
I am confused with this comment. lww claimed cop and then said he found zacch to be "not guilty". Are you trying to say you didnt think he was the real cop?
Given that Jazzy flipped town we can treat his report of Zacch's bodyguard as proven and thus he's likely town, despite his random flailings
Dont get this also. lww admitted to being cop and said he found Zacch to be not guilty. He was killed and was confirmed as real cop. What am I missing? Why do you still think he is "likely" town?
Per later posts DF seemed confused about cop results - but the most basic cop (which LWW was) returns guilty or not guilty. I think what's going on at this point is losing track of the sequence of events at the end of D3, which is crazy enough to read back on:
- Jazzy claimed as Role Cop, which gets results of who has what role. Said that Zacch is Bodyguard and LWW is Cop (normal cop)
- Jazzy gets lynched and flips town, which means his results can be treated as accurate - so at THAT point we knew LWW was a normal cop
- There is no use for scum to have a normal cop unless they are hunting another faction or SK or something, so this means that everybody would have treated LWW as proven town today, and so he would not have been a prime suspect
Imran also nitpicks my post. Per the same rationale as above, we had proof that Zacch is a Bodyguard, but it's not as definitive as a normal cop's Guilty/NotGuilty result. I didn't give the Zacch-as-scum theory much weight because I think it'd be a stretch, but it IS possible. I believe in that same post I openly questioned whether it made sense for scum to have a Bodyguard - given that we've already seen a JoaT, that is at least one killing role to have prospectively defended against.
In the midst here we now have so many quotes from Brewers, and I can't quote those in their entirety because otherwise I might find the limit to how long a post is able to BE. The overarching emphasis looks to be pointing out that he was not first on Jazzy on D3, and thus not the leader against TWO town, just Kevin - and using that as a reason to double down on Imran.
In the midst of this though Brewers brings up the idea that Kevin's wagon was 100% town, listing everyone that has since been revealed - with himself and DF on the list and unproven. Obviously everyone assumes their own towniness and per what Lyner is bringing up, Brewers apparently has some proof about DF so he is not questioning there.
If we assume Brewers is town and his proof on DF is legit, then the Kevin wagon really WAS all town - however by sheer numbers a part of me calls out the oddity that not a single scum would have gotten in on the wagon early to make sure it happened, especially since it was D2 and Kevin gave such a perfectly awkward claim to rally around. Brewers was very proud of having started the Kevin wagon.
If Brewers is scum, he started the wagon early and then let everyone else bandwagon and then feel contrite about it on D3. Devil's advocate for my OCD, Brewers was very strong to dismiss my returning reaction that Kevin's Black Widow claim should have carried weight, wondering aloud why we were talking about this at all. This ironically came back with Velocity's claim on D3. However it's also true that LWW supported Brewers' statement that TW has given main character safeclaims before. I probably wouldnt even be considering Brewers as potential scum without his own logic of claiming the wagon was all town, and without him being one of the last few unproven so we have to start sifting the remaining players. So I could see this going either way, but he's at/near the bottom of my list - or will be once I condense all these thoughts. May require a followup post, this is getting insanely long.
I disagree. A cop should receive the primary protection. Especially with Jazzy being lynched and turning cop. The stones I agree should be protected, but not at the cost of a cop that can literally confirm town and confirm scum via there actions. It's too powerful. I get the feeling 2 are a theme here. 2 cops.
It's not defensive. It's calling you out MK. Prove I killed Tony. You said I did. I said prove it. But bam. I call it out and now it switches to "it had to be your scum buddy." I guess you don't really have anything. Please. Keep making these statements that you believe are true without evidence.
Then Surprise surprise. Brewers wants to lynch me again. Then lashes out at Imran for not agreeing with him. Let me guess, next he's going to say Imran and me are on a team because we don't follow you Brewers blindly like some people? I understand you think your helping but bad play dosen't = town points for you. You've been on two town lynches. The first was idiotic wagon. The only fair point you have is you didn't start the Jazzy wagon. You got off my wagon(if we want to call it that), when it was clear you hade nothing to lynch me with and your reasoning razor thin as you flip flop vote today.
I have to wonder if Darkfox is the new Lyner with his past statement.
Irman now suspects Brewers and pushes him to vote cause he votes for me? There is other things to go after Brewers for then that. I have to wonder if that's an attempt to get me over to your side with a chance to lynch Brewers.
For as much as Preston talks, you certainly aren't taking a lead on anything. You just seem to passive to me. Are you trying to seem super active with analysing things but not pressing anybody's buttons to stay under the radar?
Robert comes back to attack Zacch's choice for protecting Velocity's Stone over LWW's Cop. Both could have been scum targets last night, but the stones could be an instant game over so I can't fault Zacch's choice here. It feels odd Robert wants to be THIS critical however.
Robert doubles down on attacking/challenging MK - basically not letting go of MK's initial claim that Robert killed Tony and then changing story - and then calls out Brewers for going back and forth.
And then Robert calls me out for my style. Feels a little like he's covering all the bases here. You're not wrong that I haven't posted since last night, and now I've spent way too long reading and composing THIS mess since you all posted multiple pages during the day This kind of analysis is kindof my thing, and as for not pushing peoples' buttons - Given how much of this game so far seems to be driven by personality and grudges and history, I'm wondering if just not being part of that makes me look like I'm avoiding buttons.
I think this is the most Lyner's had in a single post thus far, and actually lays out a list of people. Good to see more activity, as lurking made him seem more scummy - this also applies to iSoc2 as I'll get to it later. He could still be scum and just putting in a showing today.
The night kills so far have been a bit bizzare to me. Usually as scums you would try to go for the active/experienced ones first, but scums killed low profile players (iSoc/Tony) on N1 and N2, suggesting that scums are part of the active players or they like to play it safe. However, they still went for a risky target on N3 (LWW the cop), despite the fact that there are bodyguard and watcher in play. I think we have a veteran schemer in the mafia team.
Out of those alive, I think these players fit the bill:
- Brewers, classic brewers, can be any.
- Imran, a bit different play style this time. Feels like laying low so far.
- MK, has been very different from his usual play style so far. The fixation on Velocity is a bit sus.
As for their friends:
- Dark Fox, can't get a read since they have been avoiding making a strong opinion so far. Brewers said he can confirm that Dark Fox is town, and Dark Fox knows? that Brewers knows? DF afaik didn't respond so I think at least they aren't scum partners.
- iSoc2, inactive lol
- Preston, has been scum hunting properly. Probably at the bottom of my suspect list.
- Robert2424, has been very grumpy the whole game. No strong read as he plays like usual.
- Velocity, I agree with MK that his results are very sus. The stone thing is interesting, but it might as well be meaningless flavor. Otherwise it's basically innocent child, which is game breaking as we probably still have more stone holders. Unless scum can instant win if they get all stones?
- Zacch, bodyguard. Town confirmed by LWW.
- So shortlist Brewers/Imran/MK for scum as the scum 'lead', and calls out Brewers knowing something about DF again
- iSoc2 gets a blithe pass with "Inactive lol"... why is he just being allowed to skate by unchallenged by seemingly everyone?
- Robert is just 'grumpy' - seems a lot more attack mode today with MK and Brewers, and lashing out at nearly everyone - not playing it quiet at ALL now
- Velocity gets suspicion, which is funny because that MK's thoughts and seemingly nobody else's, and MK is on Lyner's mastermind shortlist. Also some interesting theories about whether the stones are as unquestionable as they appear.
Who knows. You might actually find scum if your not scum yourself eventually Brewers. Even an clock with hands is right twice a day. Just keep throwing shit at the board till it eventually sticks.
If I hade to guess a scum team. Brewers and Preston could be a scum team. He's the only one one who hasn't just went willy nilly with you that you haven't thrown large suspicions at yet.
I don't deny Lyner could be scum with how he's played. He finally showed up today for a change.
Isoc is so quiet who know where he'll land.
Snipped this bit from Robert out of the back and forth between him and Brewers because he calls out the potential for Brewers and I to be a team. Again it may just be that I'm not bringing in history and grudges into this game. He also lashes out some more at Lyner and - surprisingly - iSoc2. If he is just in attack-everyone mode today, I'm not sure if that makes him more town or more scum. As scum he could be trying to land /any/ hit that he can. As town he could just be unafraid to speak his mind and snap back against everyone.
I am confused with this comment. lww claimed cop and then said he found zacch to be "not guilty". Are you trying to say you didnt think he was the real cop?
I was under the impression that there was only one type of cop. Also I was pretty suspicious of Zacch
Not sure why I multiquoted this anymore, been writing too long. This gets clarified by Brewers too but for completeness - we have had multiple investigative and tracking roles in this game, but every one has been slightly different in what it returns. Normal cops return guilty/not guilty; role cops tell you the role but not guiltiness, which makes you guess scum affiliation based on roles. Watchers like Velocity can watch a person to see who visited them but not what they did. Kevin's voyeur says what happened, but not who did it. Etc. In a Role Madness game like this one, TW appears to have dropped a bunch of potentially conflicting roles and hoped that we would start cross-accusing each other. A JoaT like Tony had is usually a scum role, as is Jazzy's role cop - ways for scum to find people for their kills. It's also critical to have multiple kinds of cops because it's not uncommon for scum to be immune to one kind of investigation or another - immune to normal cop but not to being watched, immune to being watched but normal cop can ID them, etc.
To be honest I was torn between who to protect, Velocity confirmed stone carrier and LWW confirmed cop.
Its not like anyone made any suggestions before going into the night and once that happened I couldn't discuss with anyone so I flipped a coin and the outcome was to protect Velocity.
This was my list from the end of day 3:
1. ISOC (1): Town Doctor
2. KevinH: Town Voyeur
3. Tony: Town Jack of All Trades
4. Velocity: Town Watcher
5. Jazzy: Town Rolecop
6. Zacch: Town Bodygaurd
7. IWW: Town Cop
With 3 or 4 of the following people as scum:
1. Lord MK
2. Brewers
3. Robert
4. Lyner
5. Imran
6. Preston
7. darkfox
8. Isoc(2)
What confuses me is Brewers pushing people to name claim on top of just role claiming. What benefit would this be to the town? I can only see it being beneficial for scum.
Vote: Brewers
Although one (1) of my outside the box ideas, IRON scum, could still in play.
I'm less sure about how is scum now then I was yesterday, but I know my time won't last much longer, I will likely get role block tonight with Velocity being killed and then I will be killed tomorrow night as the last remaining confirmed role.
Zacch comes back and posts/votes critical of Brewers for pushing claims yesterday.
Condensing several posts of conversation for brevity, Brewers explains himself that full claiming would have helped more people previously, and Zacch swaps to join Brewers instead. This underscores both Brewers' persuasive nature that would make this an utter terror if he's really been scum all this time, since he gets Zacch with him so easily. I'm not sure if name claiming Star-Lord would have relayed that LWW had a stone though, without seeing it as part of the role itself - consensus appeared to be that we were thinking The Collector was in the game. It might not have changed Zacch's protection choice though - even if recognized and there were two stones known, it would have been 50/50 to guard the right one.
Ok so where do we stand
There are 2 wagons right now.
Robert and Imran
Where is Preston, Lyner, Isoc and the rest of you?
And this is where I started posting You've got this much from me for now. I'm going to get dinner, then will do the second half to post my own list presently.
Results so far
N1, iSoc 1.0 (doc) killed
velocity (watcher) brewers, no result
Zacch (Bodyguard) brewers
Jazzy (role cop) - zacch - bodyguard
Lily (Cop) on zacch - not guilty
N2, Tony (joat) killed
Velocity (watcher) on Preston, didn't see anything
Lily (cop) on jazzy - not guilty
Jazzy (role cop) on lily (cop)
N3, lily (cop) killed
zacch (bodyguard) protected velocity
Velocity (watcher) on lww - no result
I'm curious about what MK posted before the day ended - you DONT believe Velocity's Vision claim with mind stone, even now after everyone did an emergency wagon shift from Velocity to Jazzy yesterday? Brewers/LWW have made a strong point that TW could have given main character Avenger roles as safeclaims, but then heavily backed off of Velocity on the theory that stone roles shouldn't be fakeable - can you elaborate on why you don't think Velocity is who he says he is? This would be a VERY bad thing to get wrong.
I don't believe his claim at all.
Look at his results
N1, no result
N2, Didn't see anything
N3, No result
A bit too convenient for me.
As for vision not countering, well that's one thing. Thus why I'm not voting for him currently.
Killed Tony? Oh really? That's news to me. You going to claim Tracker and supposedly tracked me visiting Tony on any night? Please. Go ahead. Cause if you do, I know you are lying because I never visited Tony. Nor am I a vig. So please. Back up your claim so I jump all over you. How did I kill Tony? Through my mind because I believe he was scum?
There it is, folks.
He got really defensive as predicted.
So you didn't make the kill, your buddy did?
Well regardless you orchested it
Also there's one duplicate multiquote at the end, but when I hit 'preview' it emptied the editing window so I couldnt cut it out x.x I think I was reading/editing for too long, lol. But yeah, back after dinner.