Even at this hour after doing CN update attacks, people are posting! Let's handle these few and get current...
@preston, on mobile so can’t quote you’re thing about the tells but the scum tell is called look at me im so town, or congratulating the doctor. It’s a very common scum tell for a scum player to make a comment about the night kills- pointing out how bad it is that the cop died or saying good job if a kill is blocked. Anyone who is actually town knows it’s bad the cop died or good the kill was blocked. The only reason to say something like that is to try to highlight how u feel about the results, and make people think u are disappointed the cop died or happy the doctor blocked a kill
Per the wiki on scum tells and scum Hunting:
Day 2+ mafia errors
Gloating (any form of "complaining" about how bad the previous night was, how the doctor/cop was killed, etc.) Similar to "
congratulating the doctor".
This is an interesting concept. I ended up googling "congratulating the doctor" and it took me to JEEP's Tells for Finding Mafia. I can see the logic behind some of it, but it also appears sorta thin and based on the assumption that people generally know what they're doing but also forget themselves?Where is the line between "posting it to act like town by stating the obvious" and "actual town acting like town stating the obvious"? After all my time spent reading and posting today I dont want to go back and review the beginning of every day looking for these tells, so I'll take this category of content with a grain of salt for now and try to focus on more concrete in game actions like votes, activity, and contradictions.
For me what seals the deal on imran being scum is how he has multiple times commented on the outcome of actions:
He states the night kicks are weird/strange. Only purpose of a statement like this is to try to make it seem like you don’t understand the kills when in fact you planned them.
He comments about the coo being killed. No shit the coo dying is bad. Again the only reason to point out how bad it is would be to try to look like a townie. If you’re actually town you don’t need to point this out.
And then sprinkle in the misleading comments he made today about me, how he defends Kevin, when only a scum player would know Kevin was actually town, and then tries to put the focus of our attention on Kevin’s wagon… which if I am town and so is dark fox (hint, we both are) then the wagon was all town… and who would know that? A scum player. Gets them a free lynch and it’s easy to do. Scum didn’t need to join Kevin’s wagon. Kevin fucked up and deserved his lynch. Scum could just sit back and watch. Which is what imran did lol
Maybe he will come up with this elaborate story and convince y’all I’m scum, but if he does and there aren’t four scum and we get another day, make sure to lynch him.
Even if we lynch imran and get one scum, we will probably lose our watcher tonight. Zacch can just be locked down by the rolebloxker so he won’t be able to stop the scum kills. They can get th mind stone then start hunting for the other players without threat of being watched or blocked by a BG….
Watcher and voyer in play… tw did something similar in his iron game once. Had a tracker and motion detector too in that one. If he did that, I’m guessing cum might have a ninja ability we might have to deal with too…
Either way night planning can wait. For now, we need to lock down the lynch (hint, imran) and then we can figure out the night phase
I haven't had time, but I will post details on why I think brewers is scum and I am pretty confident. Posting this as a placeholder to stop brewers accusing me of ducking. I am not as active as I used to be when I last played mafia.
One last thing- this feels weird too. Saying he’s going to respond but can’t and just is trying to prevent me from saying he’s ducking… blames RL… look I get it, rl can make things hard for mafia but at the same time, I get vibes of stalling here/ an attempt to buy some time so imran can come up with a lie/story of why I’m scum and he’s town.
Much of this second post appears to be doubling down on the same kind of behavioral cues. Maybe this is just next-level play and par for veterans, but I have difficulty putting TOO much stock into it.
I also have trouble understanding why someone defending Kevin was inherently such a scum tell on Day 2. Obviously scum would /know/ he is town and thus be free to proclaim Kevin's innocence to make themselves look good, but beyond the sheer awkwardness of Kevin's claim was also the idea that it made very little sense for him to have preemptively thrown himself out there for no benefit if he were scum. The only rationale - which both he and Brewers acknowledged - was explaining himself /just in case/ he was tracked/watched/etc. But there were no claims forcing him, and no attack line he was pursuing with his claim. While I seem to have been the only one to react to his role name of Black Widow, I don't inherently find it odd that at least SOME people would have erred on the side of "There is no reason for kevin-as-scum to have done this."
I'm also going to net-neutral Imran's last post since I myself have had to post in broken parts today, and Imran has posted enough times today that I don't think he's trying to be inactive or avoid notice. If he has something to say then I'll parse it when he says it, but he only hurts himself by delaying so if you've got some logic to argue your position then get it out here. Granted I probably won't get to read it til tomorrow afternoon again, but such is life.
iSoc2 gets a blithe pass with "Inactive lol"... why is he just being allowed to skate by unchallenged by seemingly everyone?
It's a tough situation, it's easier to dig more by engaging with active players. Which is why I always advocate for lynching the inactives early in the game. I'm all for pressuring him to be more active.
If Velocity is scum why hasn't anyone come out and disputed his name claim.
Mafia side could be given safe name claims
need more time to think of Imran
Lyner - I'll cover iSoc2 here more presently, but SERIOUSLY??? "engaging with active players" reads the same to me as "ignoring scum pretending to be inactive"!! One of the main reasons you drew notice was seeming inactivity and trying to avoid attention. The same logic was applied to Jazzy and Velocity in turn when their wagons were being considered. Seem it would be a scum dream to just sit out the discussion entirely with everyone fighting over the ACTIVE players while you coast by unchallenged.
Responding to Lyner's response to Zacch - the concept of a safe name claim is that TW gave the scum a name that nobody else has, so that they don't instantly give themselves away when claiming a role. This is a point Brewers and LWW made to me very strongly on D2, that just having a main character name like Black Widow shouldn't be taken as proof. I was skeptical about this at the time, and then on D3 the general consensus shifted to instead say "name claims done mean anything UNLESS it's a stone role which shouldn't be able to be faked." We have yet to see a fake stone name claim (or fake ANY name claim), but just because there is no counter name claim doesn't mean the name is real. It is possible that TW split things up so that scum would have a few choice safe name claims, but there is no way of knowing if "stone names are safe" has exceptions. At THIS point I don't want Velocity to die just to test that theory, despite his lackluster Watcher results that would otherwise be VERY easy for scum to fake - i.e. "I have a role but I never actually saw anything."
Is there a scum role where if you investigate them they kill the investigator?
After a brief search I found references to Weak modifier roles, but that is less something where it's a scum power and more a modifier on the town role that investigates them. If a 'weak' town acts on a scum player, it kills the town. I also saw reference to (ironically) an Avenger bodyguard role that kills the one who kills their target, but I think that would only apply if scum had their own bodyguard and were using it to ward off a vigilante kill - where vigilante is a town role that gets a night kill of their own.
I'll ask the obvious question of being curious why you would ask about this, since you've opened the topic? At this point just about all theories and arguments need to come out.
Okay - now down to the actual list of those who remain, that are not otherwise proven.
1. Lord MK - likely town, despite continued aggression against Velocity/vision and changing his "robert killed/orchestrated killing of Tony" story
- Voted Velocity early, still maintains doesnt believe Velocity's claim, but despite this he voted for Robert instead of Velocity today
- Brewers saying leaving his 'vote' there is just what Town MK does - I guess that's history, though I dont like considering it
- Included in a post that Robert 'killed Tony' then walked it back by saying it was his buddies after Robert challenged it - story changing inconsistency
2. Brewers - overall neutral, could see as leaderly town or very experienced scum manipulating newer players
- Aggressive/forceful leader that pushes for his target but also clearly experienced. Up til today I didnt even consider him as potential scum, but with about half the game proven I now need to reconsider that he could be scum leading us around
- Started Kevin's wagon on D2, part of wagons on D3 but less a driver
- Pushed for claims on D3 - this is both a pro and a con as it got Velocity to speak up and defend himself, was a bit late to save Jazzy, and it outed LWW/Zacch's roles
- D4 seems more based on behavioral cues than actual content, waffling between Imran and Robert and back again.
- Unanswered question from clue that Brewers dropped about DF - Lyner has called this out and Brewers attacked Lyner for even asking the question. Brewers is using this as seeming proof that DF is town.
- DF and Brewers were on the Kevin wagon. If both are town then the entire wagon had no scum on it, but per sheer numbers it feels strange that there wouldn't even be ONE scum on there at all. That could actually be the case, but
3. Robert - neutral, aggressive today, seems to have OOC issues with MK and Brewers that is being used to supplement his 'early on Kevin' status
- Early/earliest defender of Kevin on D2 - this was taken as a scum tell, though I don't fully see it
- OOC attacks on Tony prior to Tony's death - I don't like considering this as a factor because it would mean he could be throwing the game for the scum based on something personal.
- Voted for Tony with Kevin prior to Tony's death; when Tony was killed this gave appearance of Robert being framed because everything lined up and felt TOO obvious
- Antagonism with Brewers and MK, which broke out into Robert being a LOT more aggressive today
- Robert attacked/challenged MK for having said Robert "killed Tony", and then MK revised his statement
- Brewers calling out behavioral posts by Robert today that per the "congratulating the doctor" theory indicate he was scum trying to show fake sympathy/shock/outrage
4. Lyner - leaning scum due to trying to avoid notice and giving iSoc2 a pass
- On Tony wagon with Robert and Kevin on D2
- No vote at end of D3
- Generally inactive until today, flying below radar and seeming distracted/not paying attention or scumhunting. voted iSoc1.0 who had just died, for example.
- Gives iSoc2 a very vague pass as 'inactive lol' - despite that being the definition of someone trying to avoid attention
- Provoking Brewers with an unanswered question that Brewers apparently "dropped a clue" about DF, to the point that Brewers attacked him back. Pending how that question/situation resolves it may affect whether Lyner was actually being observant about something.
5. Imran - neutral, seemed even-tempered and analytical on earlier days but now squabbling with Brewers
- Similar to Brewers I wouldn't have been considering Imran possible scum until I've had to rebuild my suspect list today. It's possible that means he's scum and playing a good game to keep himself from tripping flags
- Got more into an argument with Brewers today, including what is effectively an OMGUS vote right after Brewers voted for him
- Not on Kevin's wagon on D2, on argument Kevin wouldn't be that stupid as scum
- Voted Jazzy on D2 instead of Kevin's Tony wagon based on 'gut feeling' - could be vote spreading
- Kevin admitted his own Tony wagon was thin at the time, so this is not completely a scum move
- Jazzy was doing a "reluctant voting" thing that drew attention and FoS from others as well
- Much of the argument for him today looks based on the same "congratulating the doctor" reading into posts, which I do not fully put stock in.
- Pending when we find an actual scum to start mapping between them this may change, but for the moment I think he isnt the strongest lynch target
6. Preston - This is me. Town, as every townie will say is the basis of their analysis
- Trying to focus on what people have actually done in terms of voting/choices made/inconsistency
- Don't have the history/beef with some players in this game so attempting to disregard OOC influences that others are fixated on
- Apparently my post lengths are practically a meme
- Voted/started Zacch on D2 in an attempt to shift wagon to something more solid than Tony (the wagons didnt move/consolidate), and then emergency shift to Jazzy on D3 to save Velocity/Vision
7. darkfox - Questionable, linked to Brewers?
- Overall seems interested in scum hunting but less frequently posting - not that I'm a huge poster either
- Several newer-player questions but actually seems engaged in the game
- On Kevin's D2 wagon with Brewers
- If Brewers and Df are town, no scum at all on Kevin's wagon - but if by sheer numbers there were SOME scum on the wagon, they could be a self-reinforcing pair together
- Not voting at end of D3
- Biggest unanswered question is whatever is going on between him and Brewers. I missed when this first showed up in the thread, but apparently Lyner caught it and it got a reaction from Brewers. Brewers has been saying DF is 99.9% town, unknown the basis or if it's reciprocated or what. Because it's been repeated so much I think it needs to be explained.
8. Isoc(2) - strong scum feel due to inactivity, isolated D2 wagon, twice singling out LWW for no reason, staying on Velocity after vision claim
- Replaced Bryan who had gone inactive
- Appeared at end of D2 and voted LWW out of nowhere on gut feeling - vote spreading away from all other wagons, no rationale given
- Semi inactive/hiding throughout D3. When I pressed about his D2 LWW vote he repeated that he suspected LWW but it was still gut feeling.
- Kept vote on Velocity through end of D3 - stayed off Jazzy wagon and/or hoped Velocity/Vision would get lynched anyway? Also questioned in an odd way if Velocity actually had the stone, which drew attention
- With LWW flipping town cop and stone role, this puts iSoc2's earlier no-reason attacks in a different light
- Somehow his inactivity and actions keep getting ignored by EVERYONE it feels like. I am starting to wonder if this is a sign of collaboration
- Lyner gave him a pass as "inactive lol", which seems farcical in a game like this.
- Brewers all but skipped him in his suspect list, acting like he didnt care about iSoc2 and left it to someone else to get into why - despite my prior day posts going into some detail about why :-/ (feels great for my analysis efforts to be noticed/remembered I swear -.-)
UPDATED SCUM THEORY LIST
- iSoc2.0 - Per above he is my first choice. Too much he has done has seemed deliberate to avoid notice, he has been given a pass by Lyner and Brewers both, but I dont think it would be limited to those two if I did a re-read of the rest of the thread.
- Lyner - similarly inactive and seeming to cover for iSoc2, but with the added unresolved aspect of the question he is posing to Brewers about DF. Something like that needs to shake out, but that failing if iSoc2.0 flips scum then I would be 75% convinced Lyner is as well
- Brewers/DF - For the moment I am treating these two as a unit, because of whatever is going on between them that has had Brewers confidently selling DF as town since D2. Looking for scum options I am considering the potential that they are a self-reinforcing pair, each vouching for the other but nobody independently vetting either. It's also possible Brewers-as-scum is latching onto DF-as-town to prove himself.
- Imran - While I am mostly neutral about this due to his seeming helpfulness, if the Brewers/DF situation resolves to where both appear town then Imran will be next on the list due to how forcefully Brewers is pushing for him. I cannot ignore the potential that Imran is a skillful scum player who has managed to avoid notice by seeming to be helpful throughout
- Robert - The other wagon today, and the "Too obvious" wagon of D3 before Velocity was nearly lynched. My disinclination to believe all the OOC beef about Tony and between Robert/Brewers/MK has reduced much of his culpability down to being early on Kevin's Tony wagon, but similar to Imran if the Brewers/DF situation resolves then he will move up in the ranking. I'll go back and comb his posts for giving iSoc2 a pass later, but for now it's nearly 4 AM and I'm about to pass out.
So with this in mind:
Vote: iSoc2.0
I think the actual events surrounding iSoc2 are more compelling than the behavioral/OOC beef that are tied up in the Brewers/Robert/Imran wagons, that his selective hiding and caginess about having attacked LWW is an issue, and that testing him will potentially chain/confirm Lyner as scum. It is not hard to imagine iSoc2 got replaced instead of modkilled as Bryan because he is an important scum role that TW could not let just die, and that since then he has been laying low to preserve himself - boosted by the fact that since he is a replacement his early game history/etc got disrupted.
I'll check in with the thread tomorrow afternoon when I get home to see where this has led us!