635 replies to this topic

[Lord MK]

Velcoity, the watcher who is as clearly going to watch the cop, was role blocked n3… so it’s pretty safe to assume the role blocker is not town and is scum…. Only way they are town is if they are a world class idiot and that player is not in this game lol

Ooo, rafay reference.

[brewersalliance]

 

Velcoity, the watcher who is as clearly going to watch the cop, was role blocked n3… so it’s pretty safe to assume the role blocker is not town and is scum…. Only way they are town is if they are a world class idiot and that player is not in this game lol

Ooo, rafay reference.

 

lol

 

 

Also the rb HAS to be MK right?

 

The targets:  Velocity N1, LWW N2, Velocity N3.

 

Mk is obssesed with Velo and LWW haha

 

 

Granted this is a pretty weak observation, but it is something ive been thinking about since D3 when LWW said he was blocked on N2.  Im guessing LWW was thinking the same thing, since his N3 choice was MK to investigate

[brewersalliance]

granted someone also could be trying to make it look like MK was the roleblocker on N1 and N2... so i dont think this means MK is scum.  Just an observation I made about the tagets

 

N3 obviously velo was blocked to not see the night kill

[Lord MK]

Oh wow.
Well, you are the Godfather, so you must know if I'm scum.

[brewersalliance]

either way imran is my vote for today unless someone has CONCRETE proof someone is scum

[DarkFox]

If the role blocker is town then they are doing a better job at stopping us than the scum is. 

[Robert2424]

Wait. I'm confused why dose Lyner think MK is a Godfather, and why dosen't he suspect me at all? Did I misread?

Good luck with your cultural thing. I'm going to lifting heavy furniture this weekend but I'll try to keep an eye on this. I'm just hoping my back doesn't go out.

[Preston]

Today looks like we are starting to spin with intertia and not a lot of movement, waiting for something to break the gridlock. Velocity didn't post before surgery, so probably gone until Saturday/Sunday. iSoc2 still AWOL. 

 

To be clear I deleted it once I noticed the mistake which was within a 2 minute period. Brewers messaged me on discord about it, which is why I knew he knew.

 

I am NOT going to explicitly ask you to roleclaim, however at this point the partial information is already out here and affecting our conversation.

 

Might as well. I am the tracker. 

 

N1 I selected brewers, did not see anything

N2 lilweirdward, did not see anything

N3 lilweirdward again, he selected MK

 

I selected LWW the second time because he RC'd cop but I didn't see him anything the second night. 

I appreciate your elaboration here, as now we can actually examine this for ourselves.

 

Tracker would indeed follow the model of all the various observation variants being in game - Kevin's Voyeur (see what but not who on someone), Velocity's Watcher (see who but not what on someone), and now DF's Tracker (See target but not action for someone). 

 

Speaking objectively, this is the kind of claim results that someone could fake - your N2 and N3 are both related to an already-dead townie who claimed their results already and cannot dispute your final entry, so basically an excuse for seeing nothing the whole game. As an example of this, MK still suspects Velocity - despite their claim as Vision with the mind stone - because his results are basically nil.

 

With that said, neither Kevin's D2 claim nor Velocity's D3 claim have produced actionable results either. Kevin was Lynched for his weak claim, and Velocity survived because of his stone role name getting him a second chance. 

 

For completeness I will point out that this does not, strictly speaking, eliminate the possibility that you are a scum JoaT who followed on N1 and did something else on N2 and N3, specifically because your N2 and N3 results are untestable. 

 

Brewers is the main one who confirms your role - both by having observed it initially, and later in today's postings confirming that on N1 he did nothing but claiming he took action on other nights. 

 

So despite the awkwardness of your situation, I think you can be looked at as 90% town - with the remaining 10% being that you and Brewers are somehow in this together; possible but less likely. 

 

 

So I get email notifications for PMs, hence how I saw it. If anyone has emails for PMs the post from dark fox tracking me would still be in it, as it might be deleted from the thread but the email wouldn’t vanish…

I saw via email dark fox tracked me. If I was scum I def would have killed dark fox night 1 for that. Knowing he was the tracker, he would not still be alive if I was scum.
I did DM dark fox to let him know he did it to try to delete it so scum didn’t see that he was the tracker and kill him.

I was going to use the OOC stuff and explain more but TW told me not to, hence why I was kind of cagey about explaining it.

 

This does explain quite a bit of your caginess, if TW pushed you to not talk about it. Dropping the 99.9% town clue was enough to eventually bring this all out. 

 

It's dangerous to speculate overly much on scum intentions because you'll end up in logical circles, but I'll game this out since you've proposed a scenario. Your "If I was scum DF would be dead N1 because I knew he was tracker" could be matched by "I knew DF was tracker on N1 but will vet me as town if needed due to my helping him, especially if he doesn't see ME do anything tonight - so we can try for a better target tonight and kill him tomorrow if nothing better claims." That would have indeed been a risky scum play however, as DF could have changed his follow target after his mistake. 

 

 

 

Maybe ironic given that it's not presented as your theory, but I put more weight on your saying that Brewers' mindset has changed today over how he thought of you on previous days, as that is a more visible change in stance. 

 

I actually stated in my post that this was the thing that conviced me he was scum. He was on my scum list but I may not have voted for him early until I saw if there were any useful results from night. But the sudden attack out of nowhere right after I posted that I suspect that town is being led to mislynches just confirmed it. He knew I was going to come after him so he jumped in first so that my vote on him looks like a OMGUS. 

 

Okay... you keep giving iSoc2 more and more of a pass here and that concerns me. I dont think this is "gambling" at all, I think he is our strongest candidate.

 

I am not fully conviced regarding iSoc. It is possible he is one of brewers'scum partners but he did call out lww a couple of times if I remember correctly. The lww/brewers duo looked strange to me on Day 2. It pointed to close coordination to lynch. However scum would not work so openly together also, but maybe they may have thought they will never suspect scum to be working together. Now however, lww has been confirmed town. My theory here is that brewers latched on to a very townie looking player so that he looks townie by association also. A common smart scum tactic. 

 

Might as well. I am the tracker.    N1 I selected brewers, did not see anything N2 lilweirdward, did not see anything N3 lilweirdward again, he selected MK

 

lww may have been role blocked on N2, he said he got not action on Day 2. That explaing why you didnt see lww do anything. Not sure if it was townie roleblocker or scum. Brewers not doing anything on N1 is interesting also. All scum may not have power roles. We have seen every avenger who has died has a power role. 

 

This may be my first mafia game in a while, but sometimes when someone abruptly changes their stance on someone it meant they have new information that they don't want to claim openly but are hoping that their shift will tip others to follow them. After he started attacking you so strongly Imran, I thought that he was about to claim a result that might explain the 'why' - however since then his justifications have primarily appeared to be reading into professional scum tells.

 

A shift can also happen after mafia get a chance to discuss at night their strategy for the next day, based on whatever information they may have. So either way, it was notable and worth watching for cues or clues. 

 

I really dont get what sort of reaction is making everyone ignore iSoc2's still-unexplained attacks on our cop and long periods of inactivity that match with laying low while wagons build on everyone else. You, Lyner, and Brewers are all seeming to give him a pass here. Given how much Brewers is attacking you I'd hesitate to say you're on the same team - unless this is one HELL of a distancing tactic - but this really doesnt feel like a coincidence to me that people who seem like they would normally attack inactivity as scummy are instead letting it slide. 

 

Probably the only objectively new/useful bit of information out of your post is this final observation that DF claims Brewers did nothing on N1. In a role madness game that's odd. Rattling off some possibilities:

• Per Imran's line of attack later in today's posts, Brewers is scum and had someone else take faction actions for the night so he would seem to be doing nothing
• Brewers is town (or SK) and waited so DF would report him doing nothing. Beyond getting DF to say so, not sure if this makes sense.
• Brewers is town but either couldnt or didnt use his power on N1. Conserving an X-shot skill, limited by even-night modifier, biding his time, etc. What skills make sense to either have such modifiers or NOT using them every possible night?
• Brewers DID take action on N1 but was unobservable for some reason. Scum ninja, a role that doesnt GO anywhere so Tracker can't respond to it, etc?
• Any other ideas?

In order to figure out what's going on between Brewers and Imran/Robert that he has voted between today, this might be how we figure out what is going on.

 

 

 

I saw via email dark fox tracked me. If I was scum I def would have killed dark fox night 1 for that. Knowing he was the tracker, he would not still be alive if I was scum. I did DM dark fox to let him know he did it to try to delete it so scum didn’t see that he was the tracker and kill him.

 

Or you didnt kill him to get DF on your side, which would explain the message you sent him, showing him you did a townie thing. 

 

That possibility did not escape me, but there is no way for me to confirm one or the other without sacrificing a night. 

 

It is indeed important to acknowledge things that are not confirmed. It not being confirmed does not make it true or false, just that you have to consider both cases. 

 

 

There's no way to prove you are not a Godfather.
Short of a full rc, but i get the feeling you would say that it's fake.

How is this any different from me saying that Roberto killed Tony?
Basically the same level of proof backing it up.
Although I am not stretching as much as you.

 

I clarified by saying I have a "feeling". There is no way to have proof regarding this role. The couple of indications is (i) Cop is present in game -> Mod has to give Scum team some protection for balance and (ii) Brewers did no action on N1 -> fits with Godfather (iii) The game flavor states that Thanos is sending his lieutenants out to kill, in movie also he does this first and only when his lietenants start getting killed off he takes a direct hand in things. There may be some town-themed roles also which are passive so I cannot be 100% sure, but all Avengers that have died so far had power roles.

 

Imran had an interesting concept that Brewers could be a 'Godfather' scum. Per mafiascum that is a scum role which investigates as innocent if a normal cop targets him, but other types of cop could get their usual results. However Imran appears to be using the term to instead just mean a scum that is sitting back and not being active while the others in their team are using roles/doing kills/etc. 

 

This is very clearly speculation on Imran's part to try and square the "Brewers did nothing on N1 as claimed by DF." It WOULD explain why someone in a role madness game would do nothing on a given night, but per my list above it is also not the only answer to that question. As MK notes here, there is  no existing proof that this is the case. It would be an interesting flavor/theme concept though, to have Thanos be a Godfather that the rest of his team would try and preserve - despite Brewers himself very much NOT playing it safe or quiet in the slightest, lol. 

 

Speculation is good to come up with theories that might make sense or hold water to explain other known facts, but like everything else it's unproven until we start linking them to something or have something more solid to hold them up. 

 

 

Velcoity, the watcher who is as clearly going to watch the cop, was role blocked n3… so it’s pretty safe to assume the role blocker is not town and is scum…. Only way they are town is if they are a world class idiot and that player is not in this game lol

Also trying to put out there that scum has non power roles is a bad notion. If they had non power roles I don’t think this game would be very balanced. Town would have to have multiple vanilla roles to balance it out and that just does not look like it is going to be the case.

And I know you’re gonna say something like “why didn’t you do an action then- it’s cause you’re The Godfather” or something like that.

I am not going to role claim, which you’re probably going to try to press me to do, but I have a power role and I did actions the following nights

I feel safe in saying I have a power role since I highly doubt there are vanilla roles, this is a role madness game.

If vanilla roles are in play, for it to be balanced, nearly every unknown role left would have to be vanilla for the game to be balanced. And we know there is still one stone left in play (soul stone) and I doubt a VT has a stone lol

 

 

Brewers states here that he did actions on following nights. If this is accurate it suggests Brewers has a role that for some reason doesn't make sense to use every night, and not just an even-night modifier.

• With DF not dead, if Brewers is scum he did so knowing DF /could/ be tracking him again, though maybe less likely for a repeat of the same target.
• My first thought was some sort of SK or Vigilante, but we have not seen a 2-kill night... so unless one of these nights was actually a scum kill blocked and Brewers' kill getting through (or Brewers' kill blocked and scum kill continuing as normal), I'm not sure Brewers can be a vigilante. I'm not sure how the blocking would happen either; our Doctor died on N1 and while Zacch protected Imran and Velocity on N2/N3 respectively, if Brewers-as-Vig-or-SK tried to kill them at that time it would have resulted in Zacch dying. 
• ... I cant think of any other roles that would make sense to not use every night if you have them.

Brewers does not need to claim unless he wants to, but pulling this thread of "not active on N1 but active on other nights" it is difficult to think of what town-aligned roles he COULD be. 

 

 

Maybe ironic given that it's not presented as your theory, but I put more weight on your saying that Brewers' mindset has changed today over how he thought of you on previous days, as that is a more visible change in stance. 

 

 

This doesnt really make much sense.  My thoughts on D3 had my scum list as Robert, Velocity and Jazzy.  And then Velocity RCd and I said I would have to change my scum list and you said the same thing...(u miught have said it first).  Then Jazzy flipped town... So obviously the scum suspects needed to change since Robert wasnt going to be the only scum in the game haha.  Not sure how going back through the game to try to figure out who is actually scum would be considered scummy lol  If anything, thats your number one responsibility as a townie

 

I never once thought Imran was town.  Its not like I went from Imran is Town to Imran is scum.  My thoughts on Imran were i wasnt sure and he could go either way.  It wasnt until today (D4) that imran said something that jumped off the page as super scummy to me.  I then did a deep dive and went back through his posts and put everything he said to a test - "If Imran was scum why would he say this"  versus 'If Imran was town why would he say this"  and a ton of stuff jumped off the page to me as scummy. 

 

So thats why I changed from "not sure" on imran to thinking he is scum.

 

 

 

If youre wondering, Robert is still on my list, so I havent changed on him

 

You indeed never said Imran was town, but went more from neutral to attack. I somewhat covered this above earlier in this post - TLDR for the repeat I was thinking your change in stance could either be sign of new investigation information you were trying to convey without a claim or a scum strategy change - either one merited more possible attention. For clarity, paying attention to you does not mean I am calling the behavior scummy - I've been mostly open about my theories where I have them. 

 

I am obviously with you on having had to rewrite my suspect list for D4, after the multi-claim end to D3 upended it. Per earlier iSoc2 remains my main focus, perhaps with more emphasis now than before, and the rest of my list is public as well. 

 

Okay... now I'm current again. 

 

DF's claim has answered one question between him and Brewers, and raised another that will be up for Brewers to answer if he wants to. I'm not sure if it will help us at all, but right now i'm looking for any new information that may alter this limbo state. What strikes me the most is wondering exactly what kind of role Brewers could have that both fits the known facts and isnt some form of scum. 

 

I do NOT want to immediately start accusing Brewers because there could very easily be a role I'm not aware of/not thinking of that would explain everything, so I'm putting the question out to everyone, especially the mafia veterans here - what TOWN role could explain the facts as presented? 

 

If we can think of a hypothetical town role for Brewers that explains everything (without him needing to claim), we go back to status quo. If we CANNOT think of one, then that will make him start to appear more scummy by elimination. So... thoughts?

[Imran Ehsan]

Yes @imran you got me

Not only am I The Godfather and not doing the kills, but I also know dark fox is a tracker who can potentially follow the scum team to a kill so I didn’t tell my partners we let him live on night 1 and 2 AND we have a role blocker and chose to randomly block velocity and lww n1 and n2 who we had no idea what their roles were at the time instead of blocking the tracker who could follow us to a kill and out us

You got me. I much rather would do some crazy ploy to trick one person, dark fox, into thinking I’m town and risk the scum kill being discovered than just eliminate or block the role

 

You and scum team would neither block or kill DF after the error made by DF. I will post regarding this in detail below.

 

 

Tailor and framer also counter cop as well. I’ve seen plenty of games with a cop and no godfather. Just cause there is a cop does not mean a godfather is in play. The vast majority of our games have a cop in them. The vast majority of the games DO NOT have a godfather in them

Also when I messaged Dark Fox I didn’t say “hey delete your post scum is going to see if and kill you” that would be cheating. I said “WHY U TRACK ME”. I didn’t want him to have any idea on my role or alignment, as that’s not allowed but I also didn’t want him fucking killed by scum for clicking the wrong convo thread

Stop accusing me of doing OOC shit to get an advantage in this game.
You better be town and not scum

This is the second time you have accused me of cheating. If you’re scum I get it, you need to try something to survive cause I would have caught you. But if you’re town and actually think I’d fucking cheat when I have no need to do so, I’m extreme offended


Meant you better be scum and not town*

Driving right now haha


Meant you better be scum and not town*

Driving right now haha

 

 

I am not going into OOC mud-slinging with you, which is exactly what you want - to derail the thread so that actual scum hunting cannot take place. You are also again misrepresenting me by saying I am accusing you of cheating. Some info fell into your lap and you and scum team made complete use of it.

[Imran Ehsan]

Brewers' whole basis of claiming I am scum is that some word here or some sentence there that I said is what scum would do. I am not even going to ocomment on how weak that is. Let the townies decide for themselves. What I am going to do is lay out the facts:

 

1. DF made a mistake on N1 when he posted that he wants brewers tracked in game chat/thread. This info was seen by brewers, who immediately messages DF to tell him that he has seen the action.

 

2. DF tracks brewers and find brewers did nothing on N1. This is exactly what a scum would do. He knows a tracker is tracking him on N1, he will do no action.  Brewers has later confirmed that he infact did some actions on N2 and N3. Therefore he has no passive townie ability. When a townie find outs a tracker is tracking him he will not sit still, he will go about with his action because town needs all the info they can get. Additionally he knows tracker can later confirm his action and prove him town. A scum will do nothing, he doesnt want tracker to find out what scum team is doing.

 

3. Now we come to why DF wasnt blocked or killed by scum team. If DF is blocked by scum team, DF will know for sure brewers is scum, because what is the probability of scum finding the tracker on first try on N1. So blocking is out. Why did they not kill him? Because they they knew tracker is not tracking the scum killer, so it is more advantageous for them to let him live and brewers gets townie points as a result as well, which he later uses saying multiple times how he is sure DF is 99.999% town.

 

4. Come to N2. Why wasnt DF blocked/killed? Because here they were planning to set up Robert to be lynched as I have theorized earlier. On N2 lww was blocked. I think they had no clear info that lww was cop but they found out something on N1 which made them decide to block lww over DF on N2. They knew DF is probably on brewers side so they let him live.

 

5. N3. They had to kill lww the cop. It is a no-brainer. They had to block Velocity the watcher. Its a no-brainer. Again DF gets a night to live. But I dont think he will survive N4.

 

A townie will not sit still knowing Tracker is tracking him. I think we have caught brewers in his web of lies.

 

I will now post my list of town/scum:

 

Town:

1. Zacch - 100% town confirmed by confirmed Cop

2. Velocity -  100% town. scum will not have the balls to claim Vision with stone

3. DF - unconfirmed but highly likely town

4. Preston - unconfirmed but highly likely town.

5. Imran - unconfirmed but I know I am town.

 

Scum:

1. brewers - I have posted in detail why

2. Lyner - scattered voting, minimalistic analysis

3. iSocialism - either he is inactive or he is scum acting inactive. I have thought about him, the only thing that doesnt match up is if he was so inactive, why would he replace into a game for Bryan. I think he replaced in, found bryan to be scum and decided to continue active inactive. possible but not confirmed hence i Will put him at #3.

4. MK - Doesnt do much analysis, is still going on about Robert killing TM for OOC reasons. Also continued voting for Velocity. I am not clear about him but I will put him in a low priority list.

5. Robert - if brewers turn up scum, Robert is 100% town.

 

Apart from brewers there is 2 to 3 scum in the list above. 

 

We need to lynch a scum today. The best bet is brewers. He has been caught is his own lies. This will confirm Robert. Lynching iSocialism will not give us as much info as lynching brewers. We need to go with almost-confirmed scum.

[Imran Ehsan]

Another thing also just came to me. A townie will not be harping about how he found some info that confirms DF is town. He would warn DF and keep silent. Only in the event DF is under attack will he reveal what happened.

[Preston]

Dont have a lot of time this morning before work, I'll more fully parse what Imran posted when I get back. However your post at a glance looks like more of the same so I'll reiterate that at the end of my last post I'm asking a question about what TOWN role would square with Brewers' current set of facts:

• Makes sense for him to have taken no action on N1, per DF's claim
• Able to take action on both N2 and N3, per his own statement

Beyond Brewers, a few thoughts about the game setup bounced through my head overnight, so want to get them out here. Basically it's speculation about Thanos, which may be increasingly relevant as we try to figure out his power set to either recognize him or figure out how we are supposed to counter him.

 

I keep coming back to one of my earlier theories that the stones aren't just tracking Thanos' progress toward a win, it's also telling us that Thanos is getting a new power with each stone. This line of thought came from me skimming mafiascum last night while thinking about the Brewers' question, but literally the first alphabetical role is something called an Absorber. It pinged my memory of speculating about Thanos, so I want to get that out here as a theory. There's at least two possibilities for Thanos like that:

• TW has some hidden association of Stone-To-Power - i.e. Thanos gets stone X, this gives him power Y
• TW is saying Thanos directly gets the powers of the dead stone holders

In scenario 1, no idea what powerset he'd have. So I speculated briefly what the stones could do:

• Power - Killing role? (havent seen this used yet though)
• Space - maybe this lets him bus people around? Would be nuts in a role madness game...
• Time - maybe this gave him a stack of bulletproof or something?
• Mind - Some kind of investigation role to help him find more stone holders?
• Reality - Maybe some kind of tailor or framer power, i.e. alter reality
• Soul - Not sure about this one - I remember a game where someone could bring a player back to life briefly, maybe that fits?

In scenario 2 though, Thanos would have started with Power and Space (whatever those are, if anything - scum faction kill and something else?) and then gotten Time (Doctor) on N1 and Reality (Cop) on N3. Mind (watcher) he wouldn't have yet because Velocity is alive, and we don't know what power goes with the last stone (Soul).

 

In this theory, Doctor could protect fellow scum from like Tony's JoaT if it had a vig kill, and Watcher could be helpful to find doctors/bodyguards, but why would that make sense at ALL for Thanos to get a COP role? Unless MK was onto something when he said TW loves a SK. What if Thanos is either a scum traitor (thus detached from the main group) or a standalone winner like a SK, and he actually needs/wants to find the scum? Either to make himself look town, or to rule them out as stone holders? 

 

This all felt really neat to me to theorycraft up, so I wanted to throw this out there to talk about in addition to the question of whatever Brewers could be that is not scum. So if your answer would otherwise be "I can't think of anything" people will at least have something else to talk about. 

 

Anyway, i'll be back this afternoon. 

[brewersalliance]

Yes @imran you got me

Not only am I The Godfather and not doing the kills, but I also know dark fox is a tracker who can potentially follow the scum team to a kill so I didn’t tell my partners we let him live on night 1 and 2 AND we have a role blocker and chose to randomly block velocity and lww n1 and n2 who we had no idea what their roles were at the time instead of blocking the tracker who could follow us to a kill and out us

You got me. I much rather would do some crazy ploy to trick one person, dark fox, into thinking I’m town and risk the scum kill being discovered than just eliminate or block the role

You and scum team would neither block or kill DF after the error made by DF. I will post regarding this in detail below.

Tailor and framer also counter cop as well. I’ve seen plenty of games with a cop and no godfather. Just cause there is a cop does not mean a godfather is in play. The vast majority of our games have a cop in them. The vast majority of the games DO NOT have a godfather in them

Also when I messaged Dark Fox I didn’t say “hey delete your post scum is going to see if and kill you” that would be cheating. I said “WHY U TRACK ME”. I didn’t want him to have any idea on my role or alignment, as that’s not allowed but I also didn’t want him fucking killed by scum for clicking the wrong convo thread

Stop accusing me of doing OOC shit to get an advantage in this game.
You better be town and not scum

This is the second time you have accused me of cheating. If you’re scum I get it, you need to try something to survive cause I would have caught you. But if you’re town and actually think I’d fucking cheat when I have no need to do so, I’m extreme offended


Meant you better be scum and not town*

Driving right now haha


Meant you better be scum and not town*

Driving right now haha

I am not going into OOC mud-slinging with you, which is exactly what you want - to derail the thread so that actual scum hunting cannot take place. You are also again misrepresenting me by saying I am accusing you of cheating. Some info fell into your lap and you and scum team made complete use of it.

YOURE THE ONE WHO ACCUSED ME OF FUCKING CHEATING.

And you’re trying to say you’re not doing OOC mud slinging? Fuck you dude. Literally fuck you.

You want to claim I’m scum fine. You want to call me a cheater? Which is exactly what you are doing btw you can shove it up your ass. Fuck you
Your literal entire basis for anything up until this last post was accusing me of doing OOC shit to try to get me lynched. And you have the stones to claim I’m the one trying to derail the game with OOC shit….

I draw the line with accusing me of cheating.
I’m done engaging with u until I get a fucking apology for accusing me of cheating

Use the no action n1 or some shit like that as your basis I’m fine with that, but not OOC shit

[brewersalliance]

Dont have a lot of time this morning before work, I'll more fully parse what Imran posted when I get back. However your post at a glance looks like more of the same so I'll reiterate that at the end of my last post I'm asking a question about what TOWN role would square with Brewers' current set of facts:

• Makes sense for him to have taken no action on N1, per DF's claim
• Able to take action on both N2 and N3, per his own statement

Beyond Brewers, a few thoughts about the game setup bounced through my head overnight, so want to get them out here. Basically it's speculation about Thanos, which may be increasingly relevant as we try to figure out his power set to either recognize him or figure out how we are supposed to counter him.

I keep coming back to one of my earlier theories that the stones aren't just tracking Thanos' progress toward a win, it's also telling us that Thanos is getting a new power with each stone. This line of thought came from me skimming mafiascum last night while thinking about the Brewers' question, but literally the first alphabetical role is something called an Absorber. It pinged my memory of speculating about Thanos, so I want to get that out here as a theory. There's at least two possibilities for Thanos like that:

• TW has some hidden association of Stone-To-Power - i.e. Thanos gets stone X, this gives him power Y
• TW is saying Thanos directly gets the powers of the dead stone holders

In scenario 1, no idea what powerset he'd have. So I speculated briefly what the stones could do:

• Power - Killing role? (havent seen this used yet though)
• Space - maybe this lets him bus people around? Would be nuts in a role madness game...
• Time - maybe this gave him a stack of bulletproof or something?
• Mind - Some kind of investigation role to help him find more stone holders?
• Reality - Maybe some kind of tailor or framer power, i.e. alter reality
• Soul - Not sure about this one - I remember a game where someone could bring a player back to life briefly, maybe that fits?

In scenario 2 though, Thanos would have started with Power and Space (whatever those are, if anything - scum faction kill and something else?) and then gotten Time (Doctor) on N1 and Reality (Cop) on N3. Mind (watcher) he wouldn't have yet because Velocity is alive, and we don't know what power goes with the last stone (Soul).

In this theory, Doctor could protect fellow scum from like Tony's JoaT if it had a vig kill, and Watcher could be helpful to find doctors/bodyguards, but why would that make sense at ALL for Thanos to get a COP role? Unless MK was onto something when he said TW loves a SK. What if Thanos is either a scum traitor (thus detached from the main group) or a standalone winner like a SK, and he actually needs/wants to find the scum? Either to make himself look town, or to rule them out as stone holders?

This all felt really neat to me to theorycraft up, so I wanted to throw this out there to talk about in addition to the question of whatever Brewers could be that is not scum. So if your answer would otherwise be "I can't think of anything" people will at least have something else to talk about.

Anyway, i'll be back this afternoon.

That actually makes sense per the thanos thing- maybe a scum joat that gains abilities as he gets the stones.


As far as me and no action on n1… it wasn’t that I chose not to do an action, I didn’t have any action available for me night one.

I’m not going to be around this weekend so I might as well just claim now to be safe since I’m not sure when I’ll be able to respond to anything

I’m Wanda, an avenger universal backup.

I gain the ability of the first avenger power role to die.

So obviously no one was lynched D1 so I had no ability n1. When strange died and we lost our doctor N1 I gained his ability.

N1 no action
N2 dark fox
N3 velocity

I kept saying the dark fox thing to try to bait scum into attacking dark fox and protect him and prevent a scum kill.

I had a convo with TW about it, I wanted to make sure I didn’t cross any lines since the post was in the PM thread for his action, and I felt like if I shared Dark fox was the tracker that would be using ooc shit to gain an advantage, but also since everyone could have seen the dark fox post I was curious what TWs thoughts were on it- ie if he agreed with me that saying dark fox was the tracker would be using ooc stuff to bait scum. I felt it was but I also just wanted his opinion and he agreed that it was so instead of bringing up with DF did I tried to make it seem like I had some reason to know he was town and draw the scum kill to him that way so I could block it.

In addition I also protected DF cause he was the only known power role to me at the time and if scum saw his DM like I did they might try to kill him

On N3 I picked velocity mainly cause of the stone. I also thought zacch would protect LWW since Zach was a newer players and might not think about the stone collection and just go for the doctor. And part of me is worried velo and I are secret lovers and what would happen if one of us died. I was hoping I would get us coverage over both. I tried writing up a post telling Zach to protect the cop to make scum try to role block lww, and kill velocity so I could protect velo and stop the kill with scum thinking velo is u guarded so they can kill the watcher And Get a stone, but instead he’d be protected by me and he would see who the role blocker was on lww and we would prevent the scum kill at the same time. Unfortunately I clicked post like three min after deadline and the ten min I spent working on the post was for nothing since TW locked the thread exactly at deadline and the post failed.

[Lord MK]

Ok, boo.
That's something.
Wow, ok.
Cool.

I mean that fits in with the story so far.
So a lot of people have RCed at this point.

Brewersalliance - wanda (doctor by uni backup)
Darkfox - tracker, can you like name claim? Cause we really need to avoid the lily situation repeating

Imran Ehsan - ?
iSocialism2.0 - ?
Lord MK - ?
Lyner - ?
Preston - ?

Robert2424 - obsidian? (maybe, fits in with Roberto, all brawn, no brains)

Velocity - vision, watcher, apparently - stoney
Zacch - bodyguard, name claim please

Yeah, i think thanos gains joat like status with each stone.
And also yeah, he could be the sk.
Cause when you think about it, thanos was perfectly willing to bomb his army to get to avengers in endgame.
So he could be a traitor as well.
But I'm thinking he's a sk who got super powers at this point.
Remembered the zacch rc,

Brewersalliance - wanda (doctor by uni backup)
Darkfox - tracker, can you like name claim? Cause we really need to avoid the lily situation repeating

Imran Ehsan - ?
iSocialism2.0 - ?
Lord MK - ?
Lyner - ?
Preston - ?

Robert2424 - obsidian? (maybe, fits in with Roberto, all brawn, no brains)

Velocity - vision, watcher, apparently - stoney
Zacch - Captain America, bodyguard


Is that everyone?

[The Warrior]

Everyone please refrain from personal attacks. The next one will result in an instant mod-kill. Thank you.

[DarkFox]

Darkfox - tracker, can you like name claim? Cause we really need to avoid the lily situation repeating

 

 

At this time I am not going to name claim. It would be better if we hold onto them as long as possible in hopes that Scum mess up. 

 

The names are the best way to hopefully catch a scum

[Zacch]

TW what is current vote count?

[Preston]

Happy Friday all! Not a lot of posts, so thankfully this will also get to be a shorter post tonight.

 

First I went back and read Imran's two posts I couldn't parse this morning. The first is rebuffing Brewers, and the second lays out a theory for why Brewers would sit still on N1 and why it would not be prohibitively risky for Brewers-as-scum to leave a known tracker alive. He also points out a townie would not otherwise keep harping on about DF being proven. 

 

What Imran describes is certainly /possible/ and fits the known facts, but is unproven. It's worth keeping in mind as a scenario for what could be going on with Brewers, but it is far from a smoking gun deduction.

 

During the day Brewers snapped back HARD at Imran, to the point that TW had to throw a warning flag in thread. But after that he responded to my morning post and dropped a claim that is VERY interesting indeed!  

 

 

That actually makes sense per the thanos thing- maybe a scum joat that gains abilities as he gets the stones.

As far as me and no action on n1… it wasn’t that I chose not to do an action, I didn’t have any action available for me night one.

I’m not going to be around this weekend so I might as well just claim now to be safe since I’m not sure when I’ll be able to respond to anything

I’m Wanda, an avenger universal backup.

I gain the ability of the first avenger power role to die.

So obviously no one was lynched D1 so I had no ability n1. When strange died and we lost our doctor N1 I gained his ability.

N1 no action
N2 dark fox
N3 velocity

I kept saying the dark fox thing to try to bait scum into attacking dark fox and protect him and prevent a scum kill.

I had a convo with TW about it, I wanted to make sure I didn’t cross any lines since the post was in the PM thread for his action, and I felt like if I shared Dark fox was the tracker that would be using ooc shit to gain an advantage, but also since everyone could have seen the dark fox post I was curious what TWs thoughts were on it- ie if he agreed with me that saying dark fox was the tracker would be using ooc stuff to bait scum. I felt it was but I also just wanted his opinion and he agreed that it was so instead of bringing up with DF did I tried to make it seem like I had some reason to know he was town and draw the scum kill to him that way so I could block it.

In addition I also protected DF cause he was the only known power role to me at the time and if scum saw his DM like I did they might try to kill him

On N3 I picked velocity mainly cause of the stone. I also thought zacch would protect LWW since Zach was a newer players and might not think about the stone collection and just go for the doctor. And part of me is worried velo and I are secret lovers and what would happen if one of us died. I was hoping I would get us coverage over both. I tried writing up a post telling Zach to protect the cop to make scum try to role block lww, and kill velocity so I could protect velo and stop the kill with scum thinking velo is u guarded so they can kill the watcher And Get a stone, but instead he’d be protected by me and he would see who the role blocker was on lww and we would prevent the scum kill at the same time. Unfortunately I clicked post like three min after deadline and the ten min I spent working on the post was for nothing since TW locked the thread exactly at deadline and the post failed.

 

Okay, First Pass is to take this at face value:

• Brewers claims Wanda (not Wanda Maximoff?), Avenger Universal Backup
• Brewers gained iSoc1's Doctor role after N1, which explains why he did nothing on N1
• Brewers claims he used his doctor on N2 and N3 to protect DF and Velocity, respectively
• Brewers explains the D2+ harping on about DF's towniness was to try and bait a scum kill that he would block on N2
• Brewers explains his N3 choice of Velocity was for the stone, expecting Zacch would protect LWW
• Also a less solid theory about "secret lovers", i.e. he dies if Vision dies due to Wanda-Vision lore connection?

If this all true is as presented, then we have another doctor to boost our chances of blocking scum on any given night. The combination of Doctor and Bodyguard opens up a LOT of interesting potential combinations; Mafiascum even notes how broken it can be for a Doctor and a bodyguard to protect each other! 

 

Okay - now time to look at this more critically:

• There is no objective verification of Brewers' claim, as he is not able to point to a night of 0 kills
  • In this same vein I must note it is POSSIBLE he blocked a kill on N2 or N3, and the kill we saw came from another source - SK, vigilante, etc.
  • This opens up all SORTS of possibilities!! If Brewers is town then Tony's death on N2 could actually not have been the scum's target at all but instead someone else's while scum tried to kill DF after Brewers baited them. Same on N3, though that looks to be far more likely scum action.
• Unverifiable "backup" roles with no proven results are scum fakeclaim fodder
  • Claiming here on D4, you can list past night survivors and say that they just weren't targeted
  • With the voyeur dead N1, Role Cop lynched D3, Cop dead N3, and watcher and tracker having claimed their full actions, this claim can be made without fear of anyone else contradicting it based on information gathered thus far.
  • DF could track Brewers again to see what/where he goes, but that wouldnt help us TODAY
• Given the Role Madness of this game, Universal Backup strikes me as odd
  • We have seen no duplication so far by design, keeping all of our roles varied, but Universal Backup is geared to producing exactly that - feels like it doesnt QUITE fit?
  • It feels odd that TW would give someone a role that /by design/ could do nothing on N1 unless a D1 lynch happened. It's basically robbing someone of their N1 action instead of just GIVING them a different role they can use from the start
• Name claiming "Wanda" (Not Wanda Maximoff, just Wanda - maybe a nitpick?) avoids the main 6 Avengers and suspected stone holders
  • See the entire earlier discussion about Scum having safe claims, the theory that stone holders seem to be consistently town at least so far, etc. 
  • I'm not 100% sure that 'universal backup' fits Wanda by theme? Maybe you can handwave and say "magic can be anything", and TW could have had to stretch to make SOME things fit, but I don't know
• Perhaps most importantly: The sequence of this claim *exactly* matches my second Thanos scenario from this morning's post! i.e. Thanos gaining the Time Stone doctor's power after N1. This is both REALLY interesting/exciting and really frustrating for me, because of the position this puts us in.
  • After this morning's brainstorm I was going to be on guard against any duplicate/backup roleclaims, but was NOT expecting it to happen from Brewers or this fast.
  • If this follows the rest of my theory, that would mean Brewers-as-Thanos is either a SK/solo victor or unattached scum who needs a cop to find and rule out their own partners while hunting stones. He would only JUST have gotten LWW's cop power though, and make first use of it on N4.
  • This would also mean that Brewers-as-Thanos is 2 stones away from either flat-out winning or whatever condition is triggered by getting all the stones. Velocity we know (except for MK) has the Mind stone, the other Stone is elsewhere. If two stones fall in a single night or Lynch+Night, this could be an IMMEDIATE Game Over.

Obviously none of this is proven, but there is enough here that I am now a bit concerned about Brewers and it is leaving me a bit conflicted.

 

SO! Options:

1. Brewers is town, claim is legit, and his Doctor is a VERY useful role to try and keep us/stones alive and buy more time to scumhunt
2. Brewers is scum (but not Thanos), fakeclaiming as Universal Backup with unverifiable actions and knowing there's nothing currently known/claimed to counter it
3. Brewers is Thanos (!!), as an unaligned SK/solo victor. He has the Doctor and now Cop, but we don't know what else he has just from being Thanos - bulletproof, etc?. Literally everything else Brewers has claimed about trying to protect DF, trying to hunt scum to prove himself, etc, would all still be true. He would also be 2 stones or one bad night away from victory.
4. Brewers is Thanos (!!), as a detached scum traitor who would need the Cop/etc roles to find other scum

Scenario 2 where Brewers is just scum and scrambling for a claim that matches the now-public facts is least interesting, but would mean he could/should be tested. 

 

Scenario 3 where Brewers is Thanos but NOT scum is a pickle. We couldn't count on him to keep Velocity alive for real because he'd want the stone, but he'd otherwise want to work with us to find a scum to try and "prove" himself. He could also be trying to push for non-scum lynches to get himself more stones, though at this point he wouldn't have had a Cop yet to have tested anyone.

 

Scenario 4 where Brewers is Thanos AND scum, means that he is isolated away from the rest of the scum and wins with them. He might throw a scum under the bus to prove himself, but at this stage in the game with no scum deaths yet I'd be more inclined to look at whoever he ISNT attacking - he might be trying to secure a group win.

 

All of the above scream that Brewers should actually be a lynch candidate for today - but it is counterbalanced by Scenario 1, wherein he could ACTUALLY be a claimed doctor. This is why him matching my Thanos theory so well is frustrating - I can see VERY REAL reasons to want to vote him now, possibly a bigger win than iSoc2 being scum if Thanos can only be killed by lynch or something, but it's unproven and we risk losing a second chance Doctor if he really IS legit. 

 

Ok, boo.
That's something.
Wow, ok.
Cool.

I mean that fits in with the story so far.
So a lot of people have RCed at this point.

[...]

Yeah, i think thanos gains joat like status with each stone.
And also yeah, he could be the sk.
Cause when you think about it, thanos was perfectly willing to bomb his army to get to avengers in endgame.
So he could be a traitor as well.
But I'm thinking he's a sk who got super powers at this point.
Remembered the zacch rc,

 

I am leaning toward Thanos being the SK/solo option as well.

However to both you and DF I'll caution that at THIS point with a potential Thanos candidate on the field, keeping that last stone hidden/unclaimed is probably our best defense. Something something keep Gamora hidden, keep her safe, etc. Protecting that last stone outweighs the value of trying to trip someone up with name claims, especially per prior discussion where we think safe claims are provided anyway. 

 

So where does this leave me?

 

The coincidence is too much for me to NOT suspect Brewers more now, but I am for the moment going to tie him to iSoc2 per scenarios 2 & 4 above - if he is trying to ignore iSoc2, then that may mean he is scum trying to preserve scum, possibly for the win. If iSoc2 is today's lynch and he flips scum, then I will probably push for Brewers and Lyner as two key remaining scum.

 

Perhaps we will gain more information overnight as well - a night of no deaths might help prove him, as could whatever investigation/tracking abilities remain alive. But if another stone dies and Brewers remains unproven, we may have to make a very hard choice between him-as-doctor or him-as-Thanos. Or we could just lose tonight under scenario 3 where both Scum and Thanos make a kill on the same night and both stones die at once. No pressure, right? I'll really be curious to hear from TW about the game's setup when this is all over. 

[Imran Ehsan]

Interesting claim by brewers. Wanda as Universal Backup. It neatly ties in the night actions. N1 no action. N2 he protected DF. N3 he protected Velocity. 

 

He has claimed all these after he knew exactly who the Watcher and Tracker targetted on N2 and N3. If he claimed backup-doc before DF revealed who he had tracked on N2 and N3, I would immediately remove my vote from him. He has now claimed only after DF has revealed his actions, making it extremely safe for him to do so. He protected Velocity over lww on N3? This is completely unbeleivable from an experienced player. Zacch protecting Velocity makes sense because he is new to the game. But a veteran player leaving the cop open to a kill on the basis that he "thought" Zacch will protect lww? He talks about how he missed making a post telling Zacch to protect lww. So? You miss telling Zacch and do not adjust your target?? You leave the cop open to be killed (which is exactly what happened) instead of using your power for basically what it was meant for - to save the confirmed town cop? (jazz role claim confirmed lww is the actual cop). I call BS.

 

Preston has bought up some really good points - including one where he pointed out Wanda as universal backup doesnt fit. Let us look at this: Vision -> Watcher, Captain America -> Bodyguard, Black Widow -> Voyeur, JOAT - Iron Man. They all fit thematically, i.e. power roles close to marvel universe powers. Then we have Thor -> Role Cop and Star-Lord -> Cop. Not directly matches but Thor and Star-Lord may be OK with investigative roles.

 

Now we look at what else matches thematically. What does a Universal Backup do? He basically gets the powers of the first power role townie that gets killed. We can say he absorbs the power. We go to the movies, which is one character in the Infinity War movie who gets powers from others? Thanos. He kills the avengers with stones, takes their stones and gets the stone abilities -> match that will the game and it means he gets their power roles. TW has been specifically been stating that Thanos is getting stones. So Thanos is a central player in this game, he is getting stones and probably getting powers. This exactly matches with what brewers' is claiming. Does Wada as someone who acts as a backup make sense thematically or Thanos absorbing powers make sense thematically? It is obvious to me.

 

I will now amend my theory. Thanos is not a godfather type of role. Thanos probably has a modified Absorber role. Stone-holders get killed and he gets their powers. He starts N1 with no stones and no power but as he gets stones he gets powers. I would say Mod has given a safe claim to Thanos re Wanda. 

 

Preston also has an interesting theory that Thanos may be SK. This is not backed up because there were no double night kills so far. But I cannot discount that probability. But what I am sure about is that there is Thanos in the game and his probable power is exactly what Brewers has claimed that he has.