KevinH, I totally missed that post! It makes perfect sense, dude.

 

This whole self-selection thing is retarded. We are letting the mafia choose who they occupy a room with. Of course, we can choose who we are around too, but we know nothing about them. However, the mafia knows who is who, and can spread themselves throughout the plane for maximum effect.

 

I can't believe we are letting people choose rather than doing this randomly. This is absolutely ridiculous, we are lynching on D1 and we are giving people free choice in their placement within the plane ..... Jesus Christ ... we are removing half the benefits that this game-style sets up. Instead of deriving information from plane geography, we are going to (most likely) lynch a townie randomly to try and draw patterns from it. This (D1 lynching) is what should be done normally, but this game offers so much more information that we can manipulate than this.

 

 

And the accusation against me is absolutely ridiculous... Your logic is there is a 50/50 chance I'm mafia and less than 50% chance that I'm the cop. I would vote to eliminate you if I didn't think you were a pro-town role.

KevinH, I totally missed that post! It makes perfect sense, dude.

 

This whole self-selection thing is retarded. We are letting the mafia choose who they occupy a room with. Of course, we can choose who we are around too, but we know nothing about them. However, the mafia knows who is who, and can spread themselves throughout the plane for maximum effect.

 

I can't believe we are letting people choose rather than doing this randomly. This is absolutely ridiculous, we are lynching on D1 and we are giving people free choice in their placement within the plane ..... Jesus Christ ... we are removing half the benefits that this game-style sets up. Instead of deriving information from plane geography, we are going to (most likely) lynch a townie randomly to try and draw patterns from it. This (D1 lynching) is what should be done normally, but this game offers so much more information that we can manipulate than this.

 

 

And the accusation against me is absolutely ridiculous... Your logic is there is a 50/50 chance I'm mafia and less than 50% chance that I'm the cop. I would vote to eliminate you if I didn't think you were a pro-town role.

 

dont know why but this post seems to carry a tone of sarcasm.

What? Did I missed somthing? How does that make sense? We are talking about lynching right?

You are talking about room thingy, I though we will all get put into a room on a list or something?

 

What is this "half the benefits that this game-style sets up" you are talking about?

 

accusation against me is absolutely ridiculous... Your logic is there is a 50/50 chance I'm mafia and less than 50% chance that I'm the cop. I would vote to eliminate you if I didn't think you were a pro-town role.

 

Actually, that is what you should do, I believe.

I mean, please follow my logic for a sec: (Is long, it make sense) I will break them up so is easier to understand.

 

1) If you are a townie, you could get kill from being lynch or from the mafia.

2) The only way we could kill mafia is by lynching

3) we can't lynch the cop, if we have one

4) but we don't know who is the cop.

5) If we don't kill the mafia fast, the mafia will kill us.

6) They have the power to choose who to kill

7) We have the power to choose who to kill

8) We don't know who we are killing until that person is dead. Right?

9) The mafia, know who to kill

 

Here is what my logic leads me to

 

10) Leave the mafias alone and we are the only one getting kill.

11) We have to kill the mafias but not the cop

12) A cop should be pro lynching

13) You are not pro lynching

14) You are killable. XD

 

Look, we can't save the whole town but we could save most of the town by lynching!

Reguardless of what you do, people will die. You have to be aggressive!

The game is setup this way.

What way you might ask:

 

As I understand it:

 

Townies outnumbered the mafia

Townies could only kill mafia by lynching.

Townies don't know who are the mafia

Yeah, you might lynch the innocents

but If you don't lynch, mafia will do all the killings! and we lose.

 

 

So, if you are not the cop or you are highly unlikely of being the cop, then you are fair game. XD

Lynching helps the cop so he/she could check on someone else, that is if there is a cop.

If there is no cop, lynching is our only way.

 

I feel like I am going in circle with my reasoning but is still sounded. Right?

 

I want to know why you are against lynching?

How do you suggest we win?

No lynch makes the cop work harder and puts him in more danger because it takes him longer to check people.

If there is no cop, then lynching and getting lucky is our only way!

 

I am going in circle again am I? XD

What I'm saying is that right now a lynch is totally random. If someone dies over the night and everyone is placed in 4 rooms (3 or four per room), then we can narrow down our lynch suspects to 2 or 3 people and significantly increase our chances of lynching mafia and not pro-townies. If we set up the rooms randomly, there is a decent chance we can catch mafia players together and really mess them up by keeping the positions rigid. Now they can spread out, collect items and kill without giving us a concrete platform of evidence.

 

 

No sarcasm in that post, its a shame it comes off that way. I'm totally exacerbated at the way this game is moving along. If we followed my plan to a T, I could guarantee a town win. However I have a feeling I would put up a plan, vocal mafia players will nitpick at minor details and we will be no closer to getting the bad guys because we will revert back to our current/retarded plan.

What I'm saying is that right now a lynch is totally random. If someone dies over the night and everyone is placed in 4 rooms (3 or four per room), then we can narrow down our lynch suspects to 2 or 3 people and significantly increase our chances of lynching mafia and not pro-townies. If we set up the rooms randomly, there is a decent chance we can catch mafia players together and really mess them up by keeping the positions rigid. Now they can spread out, collect items and kill without giving us a concrete platform of evidence.

 

 

No sarcasm in that post, its a shame it comes off that way. I'm totally exacerbated at the way this game is moving along. If we followed my plan to a T, I could guarantee a town win. However I have a feeling I would put up a plan, vocal mafia players will nitpick at minor details and we will be no closer to getting the bad guys because we will revert back to our current/retarded plan.

 

 

But by lynching on D1...we siginificantly increase our chance of lynching on D2 and for certain on D3 (provided a nk happens at all).

How did the vote go?

What room do I go to?

Am a bit lost here. XD

 

 

We are nowhere near a lynch.

Deadline is not until another 2 weeks or so (can't remember the exact date).

 

The majority has chosen a PRO-HYBRID list.

Choosing a room is done at night after the lynch (in a 48 hr period).

first: what do you mean they can collect items and kill without giving us concrete evidence? with a list, especially a random list, they would have to give us no evidence, no reason, for being a room. by making them choose, they do need to give a reason.

 

also a lynch isnt necessarily random. you know as well as i why lynching in a normal game is so useful. so why the difference now? because we can have better odds at catching mafia? i think CD put it best...:

 

no lynch(worst case):

 

D1: no lynch

N1: townie dead

D2: townie dead

N2: townie dead

D3: townie dead

N3: townie dead <---if there are 4 mafia then mafia win

D4: mafia dead

N4: townie dead

D5: mafia dead

N5: townie dead

D6: mafia dead <---3 mafia dead so likely town win

 

lynch(worst case):

 

D1: townie dead

N1: townie dead

D2: townie dead

N2: townie dead <---would require 5 mafia for mafia win

D3: mafia dead

N3: townie dead

D4: mafia dead

N4: townie dead

D5: mafia dead <---3 mafia dead so likely town win

 

an interesting idea: the sooner we are able to limit all the rooms to 2 or fewer people, the better. this will give us 100% assurance of who the mafia is, assuming they nightkill. if they dont nightkill, then they are just waiting for a cop/investigate role to figure out who they are.

actually, i thought it over. a hybrid list is full of bull. any kind of list is full of bull for that matter. mafia know who they are and if we post any kind of list that isn't random they can spread out too easily.

Pro List (6)

--------

 

Electric Mango

KevinH

Sir Jesus

Martino

SinKon (Angel of Doom)

Junkahoolic

 

Anti List (0)

---------

 

Pro Hybrid (5)

-------------

 

Aquinas

Falzis

Kaziocore

Firkked

Narsis

 

 

Not Voting (2)

------------

 

crazymolad

CanucksDynasty

 

To be fair to Sinkon, he should be allowed to have his vote counted. Junkahoolic has also changed his mind so I have updated the vote count.

 

CD and crazymolad hold the deciding votes.

 

If the Pro List flies I will do a screen shot of the NYSE top 13 stocks and use that to determine our room selection.

actually, i thought it over. a hybrid list is full of bull. any kind of list is full of bull for that matter. mafia know who they are and if we post any kind of list that isn't random they can spread out too easily.

 

 

I'm assuming you would support Pro List which will randomize our room selection (see prev posts regarding NYSE). Let me know if I have your vote correct, or have a question regarding using the New York Stock Exchange to randomize our room selection.

Well, a random shot is still a shot.

Shot fired is still better than surrender?

 

The key here is random. That is like the only things that we could use against mafia.

We just don't know.

 

If we vote no lynch, the mafia gets a free shot at the cop!

Think of it this way, if there is a cop among us, then he will investigate who are the mafias.

If we kill a townie, his chances of hitting a mafia increases because he wouldn't need to investigate the lynched person.

Yeah, the counter is true too. (The mafia, will have a higer chances of hitting him afterward)

But please don't forget, we hit first! we have more people and we could get lucky! XD

 

With a cop, is like we eliminate 2 mafias suspects everyday!

So, 13 people... 2 suspects eliminated everyday, a max of 6 days! (That is assuming Mafia don't do any killings)

No lynched on the first day is like giving the mafia an extra day to kill the cop.

If the cop is dead...this could get very ugly...

 

So I am saying by voting no lynch on the first day, you are helping the mafia. Therfore I vote you out.

Nothing personal but: Lynch mob > no lynch.

 

Who knows, we migh get lucky if you are a mafia

If not, we will name a memorial after you or something...

 

This is for the good of all, except you. I pretty you sure you would do the same to me or to someone else...

Well, not just you, but everyone here would do that, because is the logical thing to do.

I mean, you did vote no lynch on the first day. Why am I apologizing just now?

Anyway, I will apologize or something if you turn out not to be the mafia and you are lynched because I started a chain of reactions that caused your death...

Is not my fault if you say something from now on that casues you to get lynched.

 

I feel bad for trying to lynch you now... don't do that! Just die and prove your innocent.

This game brings out the evil within me...

 

The 'Wow, that lynch mob emote ^ is awesome' VOTE COUNT

KevinH (1): Firkked

Sir Jesus (1): SinKon

 

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

 

Not Voting (10): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Kaziocore, Aquinas, Martino, CanucksDynasty

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town...

 

first, the lynch/no lynch debate:

 

the following are several likely scenarios:

 

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining

N1: 9/3

D2: 8/3

N2: 7/3

D3: 6/3

N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win

D4: 5/2

N4: 4/2

D5: 4/1

N5: 3/1

D6: 3/0 <--- town win

 

Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 8/3

D2: 7/3

N2: 6/3

D3: 6/2

N3: 5/2

D4: 5/1

N4: 4/1

D5: 4/0 <--- town win

 

 

just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win.

 

but let's continue:

 

Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10/3

N1: 10/3

D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

 

Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 9/3

D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

 

looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way.

 

Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10/3

N1: 9/3

D2: 8/3

N2: 7/3

D3: 6/3

N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

 

Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 8/3

D2: 7/3

N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

 

Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario.

 

 

looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option.

 

now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win.

 

lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win.

 

 

now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

 

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

 

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

 

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

 

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.

 

 

anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

Yeah.....

 

Just die and prove I'm innocent. Because that helps the town.

ok wow i just had a revelation. in my hands i hold the key to a win for the town...

 

first, the lynch/no lynch debate:

 

the following are several likely scenarios:

 

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining

N1: 9/3

D2: 8/3

N2: 7/3

D3: 6/3

N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win

D4: 5/2

N4: 4/2

D5: 4/1

N5: 3/1

D6: 3/0 <--- town win

 

Scenario 2(Lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 8/3

D2: 7/3

N2: 6/3

D3: 6/2

N3: 5/2

D4: 5/1

N4: 4/1

D5: 4/0 <--- town win

 

 

just looking at these two scenarios, by lynching we 1) end the game a day sooner and 2) cant lose unless there are 5 mafia(an unheard of number for a game this size). by no lynching, we have the possibility of losing should there be 4 mafia. an interesting fact for both is that it doesnt matter if we have a cop or not, we will still win.

 

but let's continue:

 

Scenario 3(No lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10/3

N1: 10/3

D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

 

Scenario 4(Lynch, no night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 9/3

D2 and onward there would be no change until cop roleclaims with knowledge of all the mafia, at which point town wins.

 

looking at these two...it really doesnt make a difference either way.

 

Scenario 5(No lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10/3

N1: 9/3

D2: 8/3

N2: 7/3

D3: 6/3

N3: 5/3 <--- if mafia havent killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 1. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

 

Scenario 6(Lynch, night kills only until cop is dead, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 9/3

N1: 8/3

D2: 7/3

N2: 6/3 <--- if mafia haven't killed cop and stopped nk'ing by this point then town wins via Scenario 2. if they do stop nk'ing and have killed the cop, then the game is still in the towns favour as it would run similar to a normal game with no nk's.

 

Looking at these two, the lynch is better yet again. we only kill someone 4 times instead of 5 making one less chance for the cop to be targetted before we enter a guaranteed win scenario.

 

 

looking at the 6 above scenarios, it would seem that a lynch is indeed our best option.

 

now some things are missing: first, is there an sk? imo that wouldn't have much of an effect, more or less only serving to speed up the game to the point where town gets a guaranteed win. secondly, what about the section powers? since they are likely night only powers, they would have little affect on the scenarios. sure maybe someone extra dies, or doesnt, but it will only work to speed up or slow down the game to the point of a town win.

 

lastly, and this is the big one, what if we crash and the island doesnt have a map mechanic? if mole realized what i have here beforehand then it is likely that the plane will crash by D3, any later and the town have a sure win.

 

 

now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

 

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

 

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

 

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

 

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.

 

 

anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

@ Naris - WOW

 

I give your post 9.5/10

 

If you would have had a graph, chart, or a picture, I would have given you a 10.

 

Keep up the good work.

sorry for the double post...

See! My instinct is correct!

We HAVE to lynch on the first day!

It is the best and sometime only way!

I have the backing of Narsis!

AND Sir Jesus, you did not answer my question.

If we don't lynch on the first day, how would that make things better?

 

Yeah! I only joined today and I already realized what it takes make us win!

Now you are more than likely to be a mafia!

KevinH don't think I forgot about you!

 

Thank you Nasis!

Narsis, if we lynch both Sir Jesus and KevinH and somehow, they turn out to be townies, we are still save right?

So a game this side usually have 4 mafia right?

Then they are spliting up their people and mix with us so it will make it harder for us to track them down.

This is a good strategy indeed...

We have to counter it!

Who has some good idea?

AH, I hate the no editing rule....

Look, I will post in good english next time.

Sorry about the engrish, I got too excited.

This doesn't make sense to me.

Yes, we don't know whom the scums are

Yes, the scums knows who we are

 

If we self-select, that will give the scum a potential advantage? What are you talking about?!

What advantage?

So you are saying we shouldn't self-select but be selected by scums?

That doesn't make sense to me and I believe, no one confronted you on that, so I will do it :lolcharge:

Please explain. XD

 

I think I answered that in this post:

 

By self-select, I mean allowing each player to choose where he wants to go (even within constraints). If the mafia wanted to spread out, we couldn't stop them. If the mafia wanted to do something in the cockpit, we couldn't stop them.

 

I am in favor of someone publishing a list and everyone following it. CD's list is as good as any.

 

The course we are taking now will allow the mafia to get into the room of their choice. I don't know if that matters, but we didn't need to allow it.

 

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

 

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.

Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

OK, so you are pro list. I am cool with that.

 

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

 

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.

Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

 

Let me think this over...

I know it's late and I'm tired, but Narsis still made sense about the list.

 

Add to that we don't know how much time before the plane crashes.

 

Although spreading out and tracking moves would make the most of exploration before the inevitible crash, the room split on N1/N2 still covers every spot, we won't know until D2 if there's any "pushing button Y in room Z allows access to item W in room X" scenarios. I'm putting a low probability on that scenario.

 

I'm still for a Hybrid list and a lynching.

 

A reasonable debate controlled by 3 characters with either a vote or having been FoS'd doesn't make the scenarios presented above any more or less of a self-evident truth.

 

Mod: As to your note on my post HERE, I did unvote on the previous page HERE. This is not to be antagonistic, I just want to show that I am adhering to standard mafia rules in an effort to prevent any future misunderstandings, this is only my 3rd game but I don't want to get an undeserved bad rep :flail:

now for the list/hybrid/no list debate:

 

after what i realized above...this has almost become pointless. i still think that a list is a bad idea for a few reasons:

 

1) by following a list, the reason why a particular person was in a room where someone died is moot. there is no reason. it was the list chosen. this means we are losing out on information that could help us figure out who the mafia is faster.

 

2) by following a list, we are actually limiting the info we gain during the night. assuming that we somehow succeed in getting all the mafia in the same room, then likely there would be no night kill. that means no additional information for the town. and if we get only 2 in the same room, then it doesnt matter since the lone 1 is likely going to do the killing(unless they try a bussing tactic). in both cases the list has failed to do what it was meant to do: harm the mafia and help the town. it actually does the opposite.

 

3) following a list for the reason of preventing townie mistakes is just pointless. we can keep a move count going anyway, and that should do a pretty nice job of keeping the mistakes away.

 

 

anyway those are just my $0.02. take from it what you will(hopefully the fact that i just came up with a town winning strategy...).

 

if there is no random list, it will mean that mafia will be able to kill anyone they want because they will have access to the people they suspect. it's d1 so most likely they didn't have the chance to talk it out first. so they will not spread out yet in a organized fashion. they will however be able to see where their buddies went and choose the room where one of them didn't go. then, they will have a debate on who they think is a power role and go for a nk unhindered by any limitations. truth is that if a list does by luck put 2 mafia in the same room, they will only have a selection of 2 targets to choose from. maybe 3 if THEY are lucky in this scenario.

so yeah EM, i'm voting for a random list.

and narsis, i didn't get your reasoning really. what's the key??

Well, a random shot is still a shot.

Shot fired is still better than surrender?

 

The key here is random. That is like the only things that we could use against mafia.

We just don't know.

 

If we vote no lynch, the mafia gets a free shot at the cop!

Think of it this way, if there is a cop among us, then he will investigate who are the mafias.

If we kill a townie, his chances of hitting a mafia increases because he wouldn't need to investigate the lynched person.

Yeah, the counter is true too. (The mafia, will have a higer chances of hitting him afterward)

But please don't forget, we hit first! we have more people and we could get lucky! XD

 

With a cop, is like we eliminate 2 mafias suspects everyday!

So, 13 people... 2 suspects eliminated everyday, a max of 6 days! (That is assuming Mafia don't do any killings)

No lynched on the first day is like giving the mafia an extra day to kill the cop.

If the cop is dead...this could get very ugly...

 

So I am saying by voting no lynch on the first day, you are helping the mafia. Therfore I vote you out.

Nothing personal but: Lynch mob > no lynch.

 

Who knows, we migh get lucky if you are a mafia

If not, we will name a memorial after you or something...

 

This is for the good of all, except you. I pretty you sure you would do the same to me or to someone else...

Well, not just you, but everyone here would do that, because is the logical thing to do.

I mean, you did vote no lynch on the first day. Why am I apologizing just now?

Anyway, I will apologize or something if you turn out not to be the mafia and you are lynched because I started a chain of reactions that caused your death...

Is not my fault if you say something from now on that casues you to get lynched.

 

I feel bad for trying to lynch you now... don't do that! Just die and prove your innocent.

This game brings out the evil within me...

 

Actually, I prefer someone else to lynch like for example, crazyemolad. If you say even a random shot could help the town why not him? I haven't heard from him for quite a while. His last post was on Oct 28 (Page #7). Keeping inactive (or probably lurker) people won't help us. So I'm gonna FOS him...

 

FOS: crazyemoload