Are we picking room already?

Why don't we just do it by sign up orders?

It saves the trouble of going through this.

But hey! I don't care.

(3 people in a room right?)

So I pick

Room 2 then 3 then 6 then 9.

If they are not filled.

Just put me down like this next time, unless I say otherwise. I will tell you before NOT to put me in a room sos and so who I think is a mafia, and you can be sure I will try to lynch that person the very next day. XD

 

VOTE COUNT

KevinH (1): Firkked

Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty

crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

 

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

 

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

OK, I'll give it another go.

 

I assume that out of the 13 players there are 3 mafia players. I have also assumed we lynch a townie on D1. Of course the numbers change dramatically if we lynch a scum, but lets focus on the more likely scenario that we lynch a townie.

 

Now if we look at the first scum player. He has a 1/13 chance of being put in position 1 of room 1. However, it does not matter for us if he ends up in room 1, 2 3 or 4. Nor does it matter if he ends up in position 1,2 or 3. All that matters is that in any of the other two positions in that room is another scum.

 

So we randomly divide all players across all rooms and then look at the room that contains scum player 1. Together with him in this room are two more players. We have removed scum player 1, so there are 2 scum players and 9 townies left. This gives a 2 in 11 chance that the first of the two other players in the same room as scum player 1 is also scum. If that is the case we have succeeded in putting two scum together and the list was a succes.

 

However, if the player was a townie we are left with 2 scum and 8 townies. We will thus have a 2 in 10 chance that the last player in this room is scum. Again, if he is this is the end of the analysis and we have successfully groupen scum together.

 

If he was another townie, we are left with 2 scum and 7 townies. We now select the room where scum player 2 was put. Again, it does not matter which room this is, nor which position in this room he has. So we have 1 scum and 7 townies left. So that gives us a 1 in 8 chance that the first other player in this room is the last remaining scum (I see I forgot one townie in my previous analysis).

 

If, however, this players was another townie, then we have 1 scum and 6 townies left. In other words, we have a 1 in 7 chance that the second person in the same room as scum player 2 is the last scum.

 

If we combine these odds, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/8+1/7 chance that we group two scum together. These chances add up to a total of 65%. I hope it was clear this time. If not, please let me know where I am unclear or simply wrong.

 

 

still wrong(if you dont mind me saying).

 

it actually does matter which room...or rather the total order.

 

basically i went and did a bunch of combination trees and looked at all possible combinations where there could be 2 or more mafia in a room regardless of when they or which room they were chosen to be in.

 

the result:

 

a 7/286 or 2.45% chance of getting 3 mafia in a room together.

 

a 123/286 or 43% chance of getting 2 mafia in a room together.

 

this makes a total of 130/286 or 45.45% chance of getting 2 or more mafia in a room together.

 

(btw: if you are interested in my exact method and how it works out...feel free to ask. i could write some image or something up to show you.)

 

even so...getting 3 in the same room isn't a good idea. it means they wont nightkill(unless they are in the 4 room), and thus holds back

information. also it means that the cop can't investigate them.

 

getting 2 mafia into the same room does help in a sense...we limit their nk choices to only 3 or 4 people.

still wrong(if you dont mind me saying).

 

it actually does matter which room...or rather the total order.

 

basically i went and did a bunch of combination trees and looked at all possible combinations where there could be 2 or more mafia in a room regardless of when they or which room they were chosen to be in.

 

the result:

 

a 7/286 or 2.45% chance of getting 3 mafia in a room together.

 

a 123/286 or 43% chance of getting 2 mafia in a room together.

 

this makes a total of 130/286 or 45.45% chance of getting 2 or more mafia in a room together.

 

(btw: if you are interested in my exact method and how it works out...feel free to ask. i could write some image or something up to show you.)

 

even so...getting 3 in the same room isn't a good idea. it means they wont nightkill(unless they are in the 4 room), and thus holds back

information. also it means that the cop can't investigate them.

 

getting 2 mafia into the same room does help in a sense...we limit their nk choices to only 3 or 4 people.

I would be interested in seeing how you did it. I know my method oversimplified things a bit, so I'm curious to see where the difference comes from. Though the main point of my post stand. Our odds were much better than the initial 1% that was given.

I would be interested in seeing how you did it. I know my method oversimplified things a bit, so I'm curious to see where the difference comes from. Though the main point of my post stand. Our odds were much better than the initial 1% that was given.

 

indeed.

 

i'll write something up...

Please be something simple.

Well... simple enough for me to understand, please.

Thank you.

 

You too Martino, I hear what you say but do not get what you mean. At least with Narsis, I get, this part is good for us but this part about free picking room is no good.

You get me?

Anyway, I don't know why you hate crazyemoload so much but he could be the cop, someone we don't want to kill.

I think, you need a better reason than that, especially when we have no lynchers among us who could be mafia or just hippies.

 

I doubt he is a cop. I've never seen an inactive cop before. But it's been a week now since his last post, he should have been replaced by now.

We have another candidate for lynching but if he is inactive therefore not a cop, what are chances that he is a mafia?

At least if he is lurking then he might be a mafia...

Anyone see him lurking?

Hello angel of doom, see you are reading.

Nothing much is happening thought...

Yeah lynching mafia is fun!

Thats right mafia! I say is a pleasure to lynch you! Whats you gonna do?

Don't kill me, look for the cop... yes look for him, not me!

you replaced angel of doom...dont think you can lynch him...

Oh yeah! I replaced him

I think I screwed up royally here thought...

This is very bad, sorry angel. I see you are reading again!

I probably, got you killed just now because I got so excited from being able to join a game. I said something really stupid...

 

Now, that I think about it.

I fingered Sir jesus and KevinH, if both of them are mafia, or at least one of them is a mafia, I will probably get a revenge kill and if they are not, I will get killed to put suspicion on them...

Either way, I get kill...

Sorry, I am new here.

I have to say. This is doing miracles on my post count!

Instead of the boring "no you" "yes me" thingy of that sort. I am actually enjoying it!

I think I could achieve "Extreme Spammer" if I don't get kill

Alas, it will not happend, I am afriad....

Pro List (7)

--------

 

Electric Mango

KevinH

Sir Jesus

Martino

SinKon (Angel of Doom)

Junkahoolic

Canucks Dynasty

 

Anti List (0)

---------

 

Pro Hybrid (5)

-------------

 

Aquinas

Falzis

Kaziocore

Firkked

Narsis

 

 

Not Voting (1)

------------

 

crazymolad

 

 

In any case...I'll go with the majority regarding the list.

 

 

Cd's vote tips the scales to favor Pro List.

 

I'll create random room assignments based off of the NYSE.

 

I'll post the details shortly.

1. Narsis - Citigroup

2. Junkahoolik - Ford Motor Company

3. Electric Mango - Bank of America Corporation

4. KevinH - Shering Plough Corporation

5. Firkked - General Electric Company

6. Sir Jesus - Merck & Co Inc

7. crazyemolad - Motorola Inc.

8. angel of doom - Burlington Northern Sante Fe Corporation

9. Falzis - Pfizer Inc.

10. Kaziocore - Boston Scientific Corporation

11. Aquinas - Fannie Mae

12. CanucksDynasty - Sprint Nextel Corporation

 

13. Martino - Slot filler or 1st lynchee

 

http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm178/ElectricMango/blam.jpg

 

 

I took the top 12 most active stocks on the NYSE.

 

The 1st most active I assigned to player 1, the 2nd most active I assigned to player 2, etc.

 

On the end of business Monday the 9th I will do another screen shot.

 

The top 3 biggest gainers will be in room 1

 

Next 3 in room 4

 

Next 3 in room 7

 

Bottom 3 in room 8

 

Tie breaker will go to the person highest on the sign up sheet.

Oh yeah! I replaced him

I think I screwed up royally here thought...

This is very bad, sorry angel. I see you are reading again!

I probably, got you killed just now because I got so excited from being able to join a game. I said something really stupid...

 

Now, that I think about it.

I fingered Sir jesus and KevinH, if both of them are mafia, or at least one of them is a mafia, I will probably get a revenge kill and if they are not, I will get killed to put suspicion on them...

Either way, I get kill...

Sorry, I am new here.

 

FYI the mod will post the current vote count at the end of the first post of every page...

 

This helps for a quick check of current votes.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation?

That name sounds gay!

Why can't I get a normal one like Bank of America or GE! Hell I will even take Fannie Mae.

 

But seriously, Santa Fe Corp? Do they have their headquater at the North Pole with bunch of midget elves?

Come on!

Where is the current vote? I don't see it even when I go a few pages back.

OK, the last count was before my time.

Oh well...

OH! Is a railroad company with the support of Warren Buffett!

Nevermind, as long as Warren Buffett doesn't think is gay. I am cool.

Sir Jesus is lurking! or is ready to post something...

I guess I should put my tuition money to work...

 

Statistical probability of 2 mafia in one room

 

Assuming:

-3 mafia out of 12 [townie lynched]

-4 randomly selected rooms

-3 people assigned to a room (making a total of 12 possible "spots")

 

Mafia #1

-Goes to random room

-0% chance of being place with other mafia (at start)

 

Mafia #2

-Goes to one of 11 "spots"

-Mafia occupies room with two remaining "spots"

-There is a 2/11 chance of being placed with mafia #1

-If Mafia #2 doesn't get matched with Mafia #1, he will occupy a second room

 

[Keep in mind, mafia now occupy 2 of 4 rooms or 50%]

 

Mafia #3

-Goes to one of 10 "spots"

-Mafia occupies rooms with 4 remaining "spots"

-There is a 4/10 chance of being placed with Mafia #1 or Mafia #2

 

 

So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......

-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%

-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

 

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

 

Let's assume #2 fails to match:

For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance

 

 

This means there is a 51% chance the mafia would be paired together randomly.

 

 

In order to calculate the odds of all 3 being in the same room, we want to apply the same process...

 

Mafia #1

-Produces no odds, sets up probability chain

 

Mafia #2

-Has a 2/11 chance of joining #1 in his room. (two of eleven spots)

 

Mafia #3

-Has a 1/10 chance of joining #1 and #2 in his room. (one of ten spots)

 

 

Mafia #2 has a 18% chance of joining

Mafia #3 has a 10% chance of joining

 

To find the probability of success we multiply the chances: .18 * .1 = 1.8%

 

 

There is a 1.8% chance that 3 mafia will be placed in the same room.

So, you are say that we should lynch everybody in a room where sombody gets kill, instead of stopping once we get the mafia in the room.

 

I am just putting what you suggested in context here:

51% chance that 2 mafias are in a room togater.

So, if is a 3 people room then we start lynching and we if get lucky with our first lynch and hit a mafia but then we should continue to lynch until everyone in the room is dead.

 

Now, I though you are a no first day lynch person.

If this happens in the room where there is 4 people (someone got kill)

 

YOU ARE SAYING WE SHOULD LYNCH THE OTHER 3? Even if we get the mafia on the first or second lynch?

That doesn't make any sense at all and it conflicts with your earlier stand!

 

I am definitely lynching you even if you are a townie!

 

VOTE COUNT

KevinH (1): Firkked

Sir Jesus (2): SinKon, CanucksDynasty

crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

 

No Lynch (1): Sir Jesus

 

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

Sorry, engrish again...

Is getting late...

I guess I should put my tuition money to work...

 

Statistical probability of 2 mafia in one room

 

Assuming:

-3 mafia out of 12 [townie lynched]

-4 randomly selected rooms

-3 people assigned to a room (making a total of 12 possible "spots")

 

Mafia #1

-Goes to random room

-0% chance of being place with other mafia (at start)

 

Mafia #2

-Goes to one of 11 "spots"

-Mafia occupies room with two remaining "spots"

-There is a 2/11 chance of being placed with mafia #1

-If Mafia #2 doesn't get matched with Mafia #1, he will occupy a second room

 

[Keep in mind, mafia now occupy 2 of 4 rooms or 50%]

 

Mafia #3

-Goes to one of 10 "spots"

-Mafia occupies rooms with 4 remaining "spots"

-There is a 4/10 chance of being placed with Mafia #1 or Mafia #2

 

 

So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)......

-2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18%

-4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40%

 

This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1.

 

Let's assume #2 fails to match:

For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance

 

 

This means there is a 51% chance the mafia would be paired together randomly.

 

 

In order to calculate the odds of all 3 being in the same room, we want to apply the same process...

 

Mafia #1

-Produces no odds, sets up probability chain

 

Mafia #2

-Has a 2/11 chance of joining #1 in his room. (two of eleven spots)

 

Mafia #3

-Has a 1/10 chance of joining #1 and #2 in his room. (one of ten spots)

 

 

Mafia #2 has a 18% chance of joining

Mafia #3 has a 10% chance of joining

 

To find the probability of success we multiply the chances: .18 * .1 = 1.8%

 

 

There is a 1.8% chance that 3 mafia will be placed in the same room.

 

that's essentially what i got, although via a different method. the difference comes from you using 12 people(a lynch secnario) and me using 13 people(a no lynch scenario). either way, it's about 50% odds.

 

 

@Sinkon: i like how you are playing and posting and all, but generally it is a good idea to think your post through before you post

 

although i dont always do that either...

 

 

anyway...i'm still against a random list, but like i said in the entirety of things it's not a huge deal.

Narsis, is that what you proposed too?

I didn't quit understand before but if that is what you and Sir Jesus are suggesting.

That would be the worse idea in the history of bad ideas!

Who brought this up? We should lynch whoever brought this up first!

Is just bad! I haven't figure it out exactly how bad it is. My gut feeling is this is bad mojo.

 

Look we only get like 3 OK lynches, doing that is way too risky!

 

Sir Jesus do you have any idea, what are suggesting here?

I am giving you a chance to explain yourself!

{baseless accusations ... against my statistical analysis}

.....

I am definitely lynching you even if you are a townie!

 

Yeah.......

 

unvote

Vote: SinKon

 

Narsis, is that what you proposed too?

I didn't quit understand before but if that is what you and Sir Jesus are suggesting.

That would be the worse idea in the history of bad ideas!

Who brought this up? We should lynch whoever brought this up first!

Is just bad! I haven't figure it out exactly how bad it is. My gut feeling is this is bad mojo.

 

Look we only get like 3 OK lynches, doing that is way too risky!

 

Sir Jesus do you have any idea, what are suggesting here?

I am giving you a chance to explain yourself!

 

We should lynch whoever brought this up? Are we supposed to punish every single person whose views oppose yours, even if they are contributing new concepts? This is obviously town-like behavior. /sarcasm

 

You are giving me a chance to explain myself? You have already voted for me, can't play that card now. However, the last post did not carry a single letter of intention or opinion. It was simply a mathematical analysis, meant for you to infer whatever you wish.

 

 

Can we please just lynch this guy? He has already admitted he would lynch a townie, for providing an alternative viewpoint and a mathematical analysis. We cannot have people that just want to kill townies...