We lynch today and if no NK happens, we shouldn't lynch the next day.

We lynch today and if no NK happens, we shouldn't lynch the next day.

 

What this man says

Right, lynching today is necessary. We need that information.

 

If we are going to officially go with the list strategy instead of anything else, that information is even more valuable because gaining information is not a benefit of that strategy in my opinion. However, I agree with Falzis when he says we've exhausted that discussion already. I haven't had much more to say on the subject, my position hasn't changed. I'm going to go back and skim through the last few pages again now, but I think we need to close that up and move on.

Yeah, reading that again I realize that I am tired of it. I don't find it fun to do all this number crunching at all. Theoretically, I still think we'd find the best advantage using the Hybrid Method I asserted earlier (for the same reasons). Gaining as much information as possible to make the most educated lynch vote I can is my priority. If we use the full list method which seems to be the case at the moment, thats fine I suppose. Its better than random assignments anyway.

 

I think we've thrown this discussion around as much as is necessary. Can we finalize a strategy and implement it at this point?

I think we're waiting for EM's stock market changes report for the randomization of list placements.

And moving right along...

 

@Everyone - any suspicions on anyone?

I been thinking of KevinH's strategy after he countered my point on lynching here:

 

I think I answered that in this post:

 

 

 

The course we are taking now will allow the mafia to get into the room of their choice. I don't know if that matters, but we didn't need to allow it.

 

It's a flawed argument to say that it's better to have less townies so that the chance of lynching scum increases.

 

Every townie lynched is one less townie that the scum would have to night-kill.

Every townie lynched is one less vote that would go against a scum.

 

Then I am now convinced that he has the right strategy after he counter my point again here.

 

... or sit back while we lynch the good guys.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that the mafia won't night-kill.

 

It would be much less risky to guide the townies into lynching each other.

 

They will want the "useful items" too.

 

I been think why he wasn't able to convince others.

I believe I have an answer now after reading his posts again.

He did not back up his idea with his life.

I believe in order to convince others to my view, I will have to be the first one to test it. Lead by example, so to speak. XD

I will do that for him now.

 

If you are all worry about the room assignment, how there will be 1 room with 4 people in it and therefore the mafia would do a kill there, and none of you wanted to risk being there. I have a proposal.

 

I will put my life on the line!

I will back up with my belief with my life!

I will go to that room with 4 people with KevinH, Sir Jesus and one brave or unlucky volunteer.

 

If anyone gets kill there, you could exterminate the room with me in it.

I believe in KevinH idea that the mafia will not do a night kill because that will get themselves lynched!

 

There is one conditon. When I get kill in that room, I WANT Sir Jesus TO BE LYNCHED FIRST!

The reason why I want him lynched first is that I believe if I get kill then he is the one who would've done it.

 

1) He voted no lynch when almost everyone believed that lynching is good for the town,

 

2) He gave the formula there that shows there is more than 51% chance the two mafia would end up in the same room.

(That information by itself can not harm people, but how it will be used will kill us all!, also he could deny that he suggested killing the rest of the room after we lynch the mafia in that room. Just like what he is doing now. He is claiming that is just a simple "mathematics analysis")

 

3) When I confronted him on two occansions, he did not give his reason is like he doesn't know why is good.

 

So I believe he gets on the side that would get us killed and therfore a mafia.

However, I can't be sure, maybe he just didn't feel like answering me or something.

If I get killed, then we will be sure.

 

Regardless, KevinH idea will help us win. Even if there is no cop, we can't lose, then we will really have to worry about when the plane gonna crash. XD

 

Now you have nothing to worry about. Since the other rooms only have 3 people in each, if one gets kill, there are only two suspects.

 

Still not convinced?

How about this, instead of getting lucky, we use the person who would be lynched as a bait?

vote: no lynch

I will put my life on the line!

I will back up with my belief with my life!

I will go to that room with 4 people with KevinH, Sir Jesus and one brave or unlucky volunteer.

 

Yeah ..... this is already starting to look like a bad idea.

 

"Let's have a totally random list that has fixed variables and gives mafia members no choice in their location. Then let's take that same list, and rearrange it so that I can determine who I'm in a room with, but no one else. Why? Because KevinH is using sound logic and I have a death wish on SJ because he took the time to do a solid analysis for the town. That way I can pursue my personal vendetta only at the cost of changing the entire set of variables and circumstances."

 

SinKon wants to eliminate me, mostly based on the arguments that:

- I provided very useful information to the town's decision making

- I voted "No Lynch"

 

Both of these reasons are awful. By the way, did anyone notice how he all of a sudden changed his mind when the bandwagon switched directions?

 

 

If anyone gets kill there, you could exterminate the room with me in it.

 

We should be looking to exterminate the people in any room with a warm corpse.

 

 

There is one conditon. When I get kill in that room, I WANT Sir Jesus TO BE LYNCHED FIRST!

The reason why I want him lynched first is that I believe if I get kill then he is the one who would've done it.

 

1) He voted no lynch when almost everyone believed that lynching is good for the town,

 

2) He gave the formula there that shows there is more than 51% chance the two mafia would end up in the same room.

(That information by itself can not harm people, but how it will be used will kill us all!, also he could deny that he suggested killing the rest of the room after we lynch the mafia in that room. Just like what he is doing now. He is claiming that is just a simple "mathematics analysis")

 

3) When I confronted him on two occansions, he did not give his reason is like he doesn't know why is good.

 

Again, these are totally baseless accusations. Just because "everyone believes" something differently from me, does not mean that I am of an anti-town faction. In fact, it symbolizes that I am willing to stand up for what I believe is right for the town, even at the cost of receiving votes. However a mafia member would act just like you, always siding with the mob so you can do your dirty work at night.

 

I did an analysis for the town to use as evidence in their arguments. Why would an anti-town faction want to give true statistics on a situation, when they could bias it to their advantage? I could have agreed with any of the figures presented...

 

You confronted me and said that I was inferring something .... which is just silly. My post contained a short joke at the top, and a solid mathematical analysis + proof. There was zero opinion in that post.

 

What do I infer from the information I derived? That a rigid/random placement is beneficial to the town because there is a good chance they will get stuck with one another, limiting their kill abilities. Of course there are several reasons to support the random list that I will not repeat (again, and again).

 

So I believe he gets on the side that would get us killed and therfore a mafia.

However, I can't be sure, maybe he just didn't feel like answering me or something.

If I get killed, then we will be sure.

 

We can be sure that someone is trying to frame me, if you are killed.

 

 

Regardless, KevinH idea will help us win. Even if there is no cop, we can't lose, then we will really have to worry about when the plane gonna crash. XD

 

Now you have nothing to worry about. Since the other rooms only have 3 people in each, if one gets kill, there are only two suspects.

 

Still not convinced?

How about this, instead of getting lucky, we use the person who would be lynched as a bait?

 

Bait? What are you talking about? How can we use someone as bait, when they themselves could be the killer!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!?

 

SFOS: SinKon

 

*sigh* This is tiresome.

 

 

 

Regarding the random placement, we should not have EM derive our positioning until we come to a lynch or no-lynch or deadline. Why?

 

Because who the mafia votes for will be EXTREMELY influenced by the positioning within the plane. If I'm mafia and we occupy rooms 2, 3, and 4, we would obviously try to lynch someone in room 1.

 

EM, you should tell us our assignments either:

- One day before deadline,

- L-1 / NL-1

I don't have any suspicions to speak of yet. A suspicions being someone I suspect to be scum.

 

However, I don't much trust Sinkon being mindful of Sir Jesus' prior post to this (which is to long to justify a quote, just scroll up) and

 

 

Yeah.......

 

unvote

Vote: SinKon

 

 

 

We should lynch whoever brought this up? Are we supposed to punish every single person whose views oppose yours, even if they are contributing new concepts? This is obviously town-like behavior. /sarcasm

 

You are giving me a chance to explain myself? You have already voted for me, can't play that card now. However, the last post did not carry a single letter of intention or opinion. It was simply a mathematical analysis, meant for you to infer whatever you wish.

 

 

Can we please just lynch this guy? He has already admitted he would lynch a townie, for providing an alternative viewpoint and a mathematical analysis. We cannot have people that just want to kill townies...

 

I don't necessarily suspect him to be scum just yet however. I believe him to be actively working to forward a strategy just like everyone else. Although he may be misguided and statements like "I'd lynch a townie anyway" deeply concern me. At this point:

 

FOS: SinKon

 

This is where my vote would go if I was forced into a vote at this time (thankfully we aren't). Furthermore, if it comes down to a decision between SinKon, Sir Jesus (and KevinH, has there been some implication of him as well?) and there is no further development besides a similar back and forth, I'd be voting SinKon to be lynched.

EBWOP

 

FOS: SinKon

 

VOTE COUNT

KevinH (1): Firkked

Sir Jesus (1): CanucksDynasty

crazyemolad (1): Kaziocore

SinKon (1): Sir Jesus

 

No Lynch (1): SinKon

 

Not Voting (8): Narsis, Junkahoolik, Electric Mango, KevinH, crazyemolad, Falzis, Aquinas, Martino

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

Hey, everyone else beside me, sir jesus and KevinH could follow the random list and be placed into a room. The last person will be placed with us.

 

Use the "about to be lynched person" as bait, is better then just lynching him/her because you don't know if he is a mafia or not. Just like me and Sir Jesus, even though I believe very storngly that he is a mafia, I don't know if he is a maifa or not.

 

Yeah, I know I am risking lynching because of this no lynch stand that I am taking now and that I pissed off Sir Jesus so it becomes understandable that even if he is going to be one of those people now trying to lynch me he has a perfect reason since I called for blood first.

 

I am taking the same heat as KevinH right now and sir jesus did.

There are 3 things KevinH comments that influence me the most.

 

1) The mafia want us to lynch each other because is their best chance.

2) They wouldn't do night kill, because that will expose them.

3) We can't lose if we just wait a little longer.

 

If the concern before was who gets to be place in the room with 4 people, I have the solution.

I don't see why not no lynch right now. Before I think it would be best if we strike first but now there is high chance that the mafia wouldn't even do a night kill.

Lets not forget, there could be a cop too.

 

If you have anything to counter that, say it.

@SinKon - As mentioned in earlier posts...the reason for a lynch is to get voting patterns (useful in later rounds) and to get max 3 people into 4 rooms. Such that if a nightkill were to happen...we would have 50% chance to lynch mafia. If no nightkill happens...then we can avoid a lynch on D2 (provided we are still in the plane) to allow the cop to do another investigation. If we go with a no lynch...then if nightkill happens...we would have 3 suspects instead of 2. The town doesn't necessarily need to lynch on D2. Thus the status quo remain.

 

This could be a viable option.

Anyone else has thoughts on this?

 

The only problem I see is that in the previous plane crash game ... there was X days and we were rescued.

The mafia and town did not win.

Only the survivor won (whose win condition was to be alive at the end game).

MOD - any word on crazyemolad? he hasn't posted in ages

Send me a PM and remind me to get prod checks done.

I have very little time tonight.

Edited November 5, 200916 yr by molestargazer

3 suspects in the same room and we begin lynching or 2 suspect in the same room and we begin lynching.

Either one of these guarantee one mafia kills which why KevinH point is so powerful.

The mafia would risk it, I believe.

Sorry, wouldn't risk it. LOL

Even if they do, once we get a mafia, we still have more townies!

How many days were they rescued?

Were there a cop, how could the mafias lasted so long?

 

I mean, if there were a cop and the Mafia can't do night kill without getting caught then they should've been dropping like flies. What happend over there?

No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2...

 

D1 - no lynch

N1 - nk in room with 4 people (3 suspects = 2 townies + mafia #1) = 1 dead townie

D2 - no lynch

N2 - nk in room with 3 people (2 suspects...I presume it'll be the same group) = 1 dead townie

D3 - mis-lynch = 1 dead townie

N3 - nk from mafia #1 = 1 dead townie

D4 - lynch mafia #1 = 1 dead mafia

N4 - nk from mafia #2 = 1 dead townie

D5 - ?

 

So at the beginning of D5 ... we get 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia.

 

Same result as lynching on D1 but it takes one extra day (ie. D5 instead of D4).

How many days were they rescued?

Were there a cop, how could the mafias lasted so long?

 

I mean, if there were a cop and the Mafia can't do night kill without getting caught then they should've been dropping like flies. What happend over there?

 

 

I was a replacement player so I don't remember all the details.

There were 2 planes that crashed onto an island.

And there was no rooms (ie. 1-9).

After so many days...everyone was rescued.

Thus only the "survivor" won cuz he met his win condition.

The mafia lost cuz they didn't eliminate everyone else.

The town lost cuz they didn't eliminate mafia.

 

This game has a totally different setup.

But I can assume that the plane will crash and after X days...we'll be rescued.

when did it crash in the previous game?

Even though I am for no lynch right now and that this No - Lynch Strategy for D1 and D2 is very good to make the point that we shouldn't lynch until the mafia does a kill, because

 

1) we give the cop one extra day to investigate and

2) The number of suspects is greatly reduced compare to a day one random lynch.

3) Is the same number of dead townies

 

I want to tell you what we will be missing.

We will miss the first strike, which have 1 out of 13 chances of lynching a mafia.

 

So compare these two options and see what we will gain and lose then make your decision.

 

Is your decision.

If KevinH posted like that I am sure we would've done no lynch a long time ago but is still your choice.

 

Do you like a 1/13 chance or 1/3 chance of lynching a mafia?

 

Also, like to point out that only me, KevinH, Sir Jesus, and one other will be at the greatest risk of getting kill first.

I hope you all appreciate our sacrifice if we do get kill. We deserve a medal!

I am betting the mafia wouldn't not take such a risk. Hey, I am a high-roller. XD

 

Lets not forget the medal even if we don't die when we win. We like the bravest townies award.

Still, if I die, I want Sir Jesus to get lynch. I am still very suspicious of him.

Thank you.

when did it crash in the previous game?

 

sigh. Night 1 i believe. however, i distinctly remember mole saying to me before the game started that we wouldn't be rescued like in the first game.

 

also in the first game, there was two planes not one so they kinda had to crash to get everyone together. this game is entirely different.

 

 

anyway...

 

@Sinkon:

 

you seem to forget:

 

1) if there are 4 mafia and they nk every night, they could win by D4/5, assuming we myslynch on Days 2-4. if we do lynch, then even if there are 4 mafia, they cannot win.

 

2) if they dont nk, which is a likely scenario but only if they all end up in 3 person rooms, then the town will win regardless of whether there are 10 of us or 9 of us.

 

3) a lynch strategy doesnt mean lynch every day. it means lynch every day, starting at Day 1, but only if the mafia nk'd the night before, except on Day 1 which there is a lynch regardless.

 

4) should we lose the cop early in the game and then the mafia stops nk'ing we need the additional info from a lynch. without it, it becomes quite a bit more difficult to find the mafia.

 

5) if the plane crashes we also will need the information.

 

6) it's not a matter of 1/13 vs 1/3. if it was then obviously a no lynch would be best. it's a 1/13 vs a 0/13 and a 1/2 vs a 1/3. i'll take the 1/13 and 1/2 over the 0/13 and 1/3 simply due to the better odds.

ugh....19 pages of more rambling

 

MOD: Can I suicide if it appears that a no lynch will occur on D1?

 

No.

Edited November 6, 200916 yr by molestargazer

Scenario 1(No lynch, night kills, cop, most myslynches):

 

D1: 10town/3mafia remaining

N1: 9/3

D2: 8/3

N2: 7/3

D3: 6/3

N3: 5/3 <--- if there are 4 mafia then this will be 4/4 resulting in mafia win

D4: 5/2

N4: 4/2

D5: 4/1

N5: 3/1

D6: 3/0 <--- town win

 

Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias

No lynch (9 townies/4 mafias)

Night 1: kill happend in room with 4 people (3 suspects in room A)

 

Day 2: 8 townies/ 4 mafias

mislynch (7 townies/ 4 mafias)

Night 2: kill happend in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room B, 2 suspects in room A)

 

Day 3: 6 townies/4 mafias

mislynch (5 townies/4 mafias)

Night 3 (4 townies and 4 mafais)

 

 

 

Day 1: 9 townies/4 mafias

mis lynch (8 townies/ 4 mafia)

Night 1: kill happens in a room with 3 people (2 suspects in room AA)

 

Day 2: (7 townies/ 4 mafia)

mis lynch (6 townies/4 mafia) (1 mafia left)

Night 2: (5 townies/ 4 mafia)

 

Day 3: (5 townies/4 mafia)

lynch mafia (5 townies/ 3 mafia)

Night 3: kill happens in a room with 3 people (4 townies/ 3 mafia) (2suspects in room BB)

 

Day 4: (4 townies/ 3 mafia)

mislynch (3 townies/ 3 mafia)

 

Ok, I have to think this over again but Narsis, we still can lose with lynching, but that would give us one more mis-lynch.

A better option?

 

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?

Mod, how many mafias are here?

Wait a miunte, why don't ask mole how many mafia are there?

Mod, how many mafias are here?

 

Cuz he won't tell you.

It's part of the game to figure things out.